The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is pr...The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is proposed and applied to model and forecast power load. Numerical example verifies that desirable accuracy of short term load forecasting can be achieved by using the SSTAR model.展开更多
Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data fro...Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data from 2006 to 2019 for nine sites in Enshi Prefecture of central China.Arc GIS and other open-source data were also used to visualize changing tourism resources in the region.Findings suggest that tourism dependence(the ratio of tourism-based GDP to overall GDP)significantly promotes economic growth in ethnic minority areas.However,the positive influence of tourism dependence on economic growth appears dynamic and non-linear–rising at first before falling when tourism dependence exceeded a threshold of 34%,with effects varying by site and year.Methods and findings make crucial theoretical contributions to understanding tourism dependence and poverty alleviation linkages.This paper also highlights the importance of political support and balanced investment in diverse industries to minimize decreasing returns beyond tourism dependence thresholds in destinations worldwide.展开更多
文摘The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is proposed and applied to model and forecast power load. Numerical example verifies that desirable accuracy of short term load forecasting can be achieved by using the SSTAR model.
基金funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.20CMZ033)。
文摘Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data from 2006 to 2019 for nine sites in Enshi Prefecture of central China.Arc GIS and other open-source data were also used to visualize changing tourism resources in the region.Findings suggest that tourism dependence(the ratio of tourism-based GDP to overall GDP)significantly promotes economic growth in ethnic minority areas.However,the positive influence of tourism dependence on economic growth appears dynamic and non-linear–rising at first before falling when tourism dependence exceeded a threshold of 34%,with effects varying by site and year.Methods and findings make crucial theoretical contributions to understanding tourism dependence and poverty alleviation linkages.This paper also highlights the importance of political support and balanced investment in diverse industries to minimize decreasing returns beyond tourism dependence thresholds in destinations worldwide.
