The North Korea nuclear challenge,urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office,has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula.The underlyin...The North Korea nuclear challenge,urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office,has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula.The underlying logic of US policy,which in November placed the DPRK back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism,promotes negotiation by imposing Maximum Pressure and by enlisting China's support.Possibly,North Korea will return to negotiations with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily.Other possibilities are a stalemate with North Korea joining the ranks of countries with credible nuclear deterrent,or an emerging crisis that escalates to military or other conflict.The lingering uncertainty is central to northeast Asia security.展开更多
Since taking office, the Trump administration's anti-terrorism policy has become increasingly clear. Its anti-terrorism measures and its internal and external anti-terrorism policies have introduced new features t...Since taking office, the Trump administration's anti-terrorism policy has become increasingly clear. Its anti-terrorism measures and its internal and external anti-terrorism policies have introduced new features that are distinct from those of the Obama administration. These include linking terrorism to Islam, violating traditional political correctness in order to enhance homeland security, sending large-scale troops to the Middle East, and delegating more authority to the US Defense Department and the Armed Forces. Trump's anti-terrorism policies have made obvious progress both at home and abroad. Along with the adjustment of its national security strategy, the status of the anti-terrorism policy in Trump's national security strategy and national defense strategy will decline.However, for the foreseeable future, anti-terrorism will remain an important issue for the Trump Administration, and in some circumstances,the investment for it may increase.展开更多
China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows ...China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries＇economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China＇s competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China＇s economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China＇s economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China＇s manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump＇s ＂first 100 days ＂＂ in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China＇s debt sustainability in comparison with the US.展开更多
On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus ...On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential ＂major deficits＂ in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ＇withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8-13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States＇ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund （GCF）＇s funding gap will increase by USS2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about USS5 billion a year. Either the China-EU or the ＂BASIC plus＂ mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.展开更多
The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become increasingly public after the Trump administration took office in the US.Particularly,Saudi Arabia either holds inconsistent,ambiguous attitudes or gives short...The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become increasingly public after the Trump administration took office in the US.Particularly,Saudi Arabia either holds inconsistent,ambiguous attitudes or gives short shrift to sensitive issues such as Jerusalem issue and the‘Deal of the Century.’Moreover,Saudi Arabia and Israel have been interacting with each other frequently in a public and official way,which further embodies this change in their relationship.The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel has a long history,and it has experienced four development stages:mutual isolation,secret contact,open contact,and intimate contact.The changes in the current Saudi-Israeli relations have realistic interests,open interaction,and practical cooperation.The changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations have taken place under the combined effect of the realistic logic of the common political and security dilemma,the transformation of their respective diplomatic strategies and the complementary economic advantages of both sides,as well as the overall environmental changes in the Middle East,the overall fragmentation of the Arab world,and the ups and downs of the US Middle East policy.Saudi Arabia and Israel have formed an anti-Iranian quasialliance,which has certain actual or potential impacts.In the long run,although the changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations are conducive to bilateral cooperation and development in diverse fields,they bring no advantage to the overall stability of the Arab world,and the contradictions within the Arab world will further deepen,which,for example,is represented by a breakthrough in diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE,Bahrain,Sudan,and Morocco.Besides,geostrategic competition in the Middle East will become more intense and will not contribute to the Middle East peace process.展开更多
The U.S. media is aware that the Trump administration has only a nar- row window of opportunity to attack China in the trade war before the situation in the United States worsens. Trump aims to use the normal upswing ...The U.S. media is aware that the Trump administration has only a nar- row window of opportunity to attack China in the trade war before the situation in the United States worsens. Trump aims to use the normal upswing of the U.S. business cycle in 2018 to disguise the pain that tariffs are causing for the population, companies, workers and farmers-before a downturn of the U.S. business cycle in 2019-20 makes that pain more severe.展开更多
Congressional Republicans backed by the Trump administration are railroading controversial tax legislation at the year＇s end. Critics say it amounts to class warfare as it benefits the rich and corporate America whil...Congressional Republicans backed by the Trump administration are railroading controversial tax legislation at the year＇s end. Critics say it amounts to class warfare as it benefits the rich and corporate America while hurting the working classes.展开更多
U.S.President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,and the subsequent decision to relocate the U.S.embassy there from Tel Aviv in December 2017,invoked a tempest of criticism from around t...U.S.President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,and the subsequent decision to relocate the U.S.embassy there from Tel Aviv in December 2017,invoked a tempest of criticism from around the world.展开更多
This article analyses the US-Turkish relationship in the Middle East.Washington and Ankara’s policies have clashed in Syria,Iran,Israel,Egypt,the GCC states and Iraq.The two NATO members strongly disagree over milita...This article analyses the US-Turkish relationship in the Middle East.Washington and Ankara’s policies have clashed in Syria,Iran,Israel,Egypt,the GCC states and Iraq.The two NATO members strongly disagree over military sales,the extradition of Fetullah Gulen,the leader of the Hizmet movement accused of fomenting the 2016 coup attempt who is ensconced in Pennsylvania,and their ideological visions often diverge with President Erdogan’s affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood.Through the use of realist and constructivist theories the article examines the decisions of Presidents Erdogan,George W.Bush,Barack Obama and Donald Trump as they have impacted US-Turkish relations in the Middle East.The realist lens raises issues of changing systems and questions of balancing,while the constructivist lens is employed to examine the weighty ideational and identity issues prevailing in the region.The article concludes by applying the theoretical analysis to policy solutions.展开更多
文摘The North Korea nuclear challenge,urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office,has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula.The underlying logic of US policy,which in November placed the DPRK back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism,promotes negotiation by imposing Maximum Pressure and by enlisting China's support.Possibly,North Korea will return to negotiations with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily.Other possibilities are a stalemate with North Korea joining the ranks of countries with credible nuclear deterrent,or an emerging crisis that escalates to military or other conflict.The lingering uncertainty is central to northeast Asia security.
文摘Since taking office, the Trump administration's anti-terrorism policy has become increasingly clear. Its anti-terrorism measures and its internal and external anti-terrorism policies have introduced new features that are distinct from those of the Obama administration. These include linking terrorism to Islam, violating traditional political correctness in order to enhance homeland security, sending large-scale troops to the Middle East, and delegating more authority to the US Defense Department and the Armed Forces. Trump's anti-terrorism policies have made obvious progress both at home and abroad. Along with the adjustment of its national security strategy, the status of the anti-terrorism policy in Trump's national security strategy and national defense strategy will decline.However, for the foreseeable future, anti-terrorism will remain an important issue for the Trump Administration, and in some circumstances,the investment for it may increase.
文摘China Economist has continuously carried out surveys among economists and this round of survey focuses on comparison and interactions between China＇s and the United States＇ economies. The result of the survey shows that economists are generally optimistic about the outlook of both countries＇economies. Respondents believed that great differences exist in the components of industrial competitiveness of China and the US; while the US leads in terms of talent, creativity, social system, industrial system integrity and financing, cost is the biggest barrier to improvement in US competitiveness. In comparison, China leads in infrastructure, cost competitiveness and government driving force but inadequate technology is the biggest barrier to improvement in China＇s competitiveness. Respondents believed that in the coming 20years, China＇s economic growth will be 5.2% and US growth will be 2.4%. Around 2034, China＇s economic aggregate will equal the US level but it will take over 60 years for China to catch up with the US in terms of per capita GDP. China＇s manufacturing technology will equal the US level around 2045. More than 62% of economists believed that the Trump administration will effectively re-shore manufacturing and the average score they give to Trump＇s ＂first 100 days ＂＂ in office is 76 points. More than 61% of economists considered it unlikely that a serious trade war will break out between China and the US. They generally believed that China and the US cooperate and compete with each other and that China-US trade enjoys great potential to grow. According to the survey, respondents are more confident about China＇s debt sustainability in comparison with the US.
基金supported by following projects:China Clean Development Mechanism Fund Project"Equity and Ambition Assessment on Major Parties NDCs under the2015 Agreement"(grant no.:2014094)"China-US Pragmatic Cooperative Technical Support Project for Climate Change"(grant no.:2013019)+2 种基金Ministry of Science and Technology Reform Specific Research and Development Project"Research on Major Urgent Issues on Climate Change after Paris Agreement,""Research on INDC and Influence and Counterplan of the Global Stocktake Mechanism"National Natural Science Foundation2017 emergency management project"the impact of the United States'withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on global climate governance and China's response strategy"
文摘On 1 June 2017, the US President Donald Trump officially announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, thus the study on the reasons of withdrawal, the potential impacts, and coping strategies has become a focus among policy circles and of the international community. Based on the self-developed US Policy Assessment Model, this paper systematically evaluates the three potential ＂major deficits＂ in terms of mitigation, climate finance, and global climate governance, as a result of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and puts forward policy suggestions for coping with such transformations accordingly. The study shows that the United States ＇withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will affect the existence and implementation of successive climate policies and result in an additional 8.8-13.4% increase in the global emissions reduction deficit. The United States＇ withdrawal will also deteriorate the existing climate finance mechanism. The Green Climate Fund （GCF）＇s funding gap will increase by USS2 billion, while the gap of long-term climate finance will increase by about USS5 billion a year. Either the China-EU or the ＂BASIC plus＂ mechanism could fill the governance deficit caused by the United States and the lack of political momentum may continue for a while in the future.
基金This essay is sponsored by the program‘Evolution of Middle East Politics and Momentous Changes Unseen in A Century’(Shanghai International Studies University).
文摘The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become increasingly public after the Trump administration took office in the US.Particularly,Saudi Arabia either holds inconsistent,ambiguous attitudes or gives short shrift to sensitive issues such as Jerusalem issue and the‘Deal of the Century.’Moreover,Saudi Arabia and Israel have been interacting with each other frequently in a public and official way,which further embodies this change in their relationship.The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel has a long history,and it has experienced four development stages:mutual isolation,secret contact,open contact,and intimate contact.The changes in the current Saudi-Israeli relations have realistic interests,open interaction,and practical cooperation.The changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations have taken place under the combined effect of the realistic logic of the common political and security dilemma,the transformation of their respective diplomatic strategies and the complementary economic advantages of both sides,as well as the overall environmental changes in the Middle East,the overall fragmentation of the Arab world,and the ups and downs of the US Middle East policy.Saudi Arabia and Israel have formed an anti-Iranian quasialliance,which has certain actual or potential impacts.In the long run,although the changes in the Saudi-Israeli relations are conducive to bilateral cooperation and development in diverse fields,they bring no advantage to the overall stability of the Arab world,and the contradictions within the Arab world will further deepen,which,for example,is represented by a breakthrough in diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE,Bahrain,Sudan,and Morocco.Besides,geostrategic competition in the Middle East will become more intense and will not contribute to the Middle East peace process.
文摘The U.S. media is aware that the Trump administration has only a nar- row window of opportunity to attack China in the trade war before the situation in the United States worsens. Trump aims to use the normal upswing of the U.S. business cycle in 2018 to disguise the pain that tariffs are causing for the population, companies, workers and farmers-before a downturn of the U.S. business cycle in 2019-20 makes that pain more severe.
文摘Congressional Republicans backed by the Trump administration are railroading controversial tax legislation at the year＇s end. Critics say it amounts to class warfare as it benefits the rich and corporate America while hurting the working classes.
文摘U.S.President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,and the subsequent decision to relocate the U.S.embassy there from Tel Aviv in December 2017,invoked a tempest of criticism from around the world.
文摘This article analyses the US-Turkish relationship in the Middle East.Washington and Ankara’s policies have clashed in Syria,Iran,Israel,Egypt,the GCC states and Iraq.The two NATO members strongly disagree over military sales,the extradition of Fetullah Gulen,the leader of the Hizmet movement accused of fomenting the 2016 coup attempt who is ensconced in Pennsylvania,and their ideological visions often diverge with President Erdogan’s affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood.Through the use of realist and constructivist theories the article examines the decisions of Presidents Erdogan,George W.Bush,Barack Obama and Donald Trump as they have impacted US-Turkish relations in the Middle East.The realist lens raises issues of changing systems and questions of balancing,while the constructivist lens is employed to examine the weighty ideational and identity issues prevailing in the region.The article concludes by applying the theoretical analysis to policy solutions.
