The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conv...Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.展开更多
To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radi...This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.展开更多
The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely u...The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.展开更多
This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to pro...In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.展开更多
Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation...Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation metric for image classifier models and apply it to the CT image classification of lung cancer. A convolutional neural network is employed as the deep neural network (DNN) image classifier, with the residual network (ResNet) 50 chosen as the DNN archi-tecture. The image data used comprise a lung CT image set. Two classification models are built from datasets with varying amounts of data, and lung cancer is categorized into four classes using 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we employ t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding to visually explain the data distribution after classification. Experimental results demonstrate that cross en-tropy is a highly useful metric for evaluating the reliability of image classifier models. It is noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation of model perfor-mance, combining with other evaluation metrics is considered essential. .展开更多
The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are ...The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.展开更多
The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncer...The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.展开更多
[Objectives]The paper was to establish an evaluation method for the uncertainty of stevioside(including stevioside,rebaudioside A,rebaudioside B,rebaudioside C,rebaudioside F,Dulcoside A,rubusoside and steviolbioside)...[Objectives]The paper was to establish an evaluation method for the uncertainty of stevioside(including stevioside,rebaudioside A,rebaudioside B,rebaudioside C,rebaudioside F,Dulcoside A,rubusoside and steviolbioside)content determination in fermented milk based on HPLC.[Methods]The mathematical model of stevioside content and the propagation rate of uncertainty were established,and the sources of uncertainty were analyzed.[Results]The uncertainty mainly came from four main aspects,including standard uncertainty u(C)introduced by solution concentration C,standard uncertainty u(V)introduced by sample volume V,standard uncertainty u(m)introduced by sample mass m weighing and standard uncertainty u(f_(rep))introduced by measurement repeatability of stevioside content after sample dissolution and constant volume.The uncertainty estimation table and fishbone chart of stevioside content X determination were established.The relative synthetic standard uncertainty of stevioside content was obtained,and the standard uncertainty was extended to form the measurement result of stevioside content and its uncertainty report.[Conclusions]The evaluation results can be directly applied to the daily practical detection work.展开更多
Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality r...Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality results,they cannot be applied to real-time optimization for large-scale reservoirs due to high computational demands.In addition,most methods generally assume that the reservoir model is deterministic and ignore the uncertainty of the subsurface environment,making the obtained scheme unreliable for practical deployment.In this work,an efficient and robust method,namely evolutionaryassisted reinforcement learning(EARL),is proposed to achieve real-time production optimization under uncertainty.Specifically,the production optimization problem is modeled as a Markov decision process in which a reinforcement learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator to train a control policy that maximizes the specified goals.To deal with the problems of brittle convergence properties and lack of efficient exploration strategies of reinforcement learning approaches,a population-based evolutionary algorithm is introduced to assist the training of agents,which provides diverse exploration experiences and promotes stability and robustness due to its inherent redundancy.Compared with prior methods that only optimize a solution for a particular scenario,the proposed approach trains a policy that can adapt to uncertain environments and make real-time decisions to cope with unknown changes.The trained policy,represented by a deep convolutional neural network,can adaptively adjust the well controls based on different reservoir states.Simulation results on two reservoir models show that the proposed approach not only outperforms the RL and EA methods in terms of optimization efficiency but also has strong robustness and real-time decision capacity.展开更多
Most formation approaches of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)focus on the control techniques,ignoring the influence of underwater channel.This paper is concerned with a communication-aware formation issue for AUVs...Most formation approaches of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)focus on the control techniques,ignoring the influence of underwater channel.This paper is concerned with a communication-aware formation issue for AUVs,subject to model uncertainty and fading channel.An integral reinforcement learning(IRL)based estimator is designed to calculate the probabilistic channel parameters,wherein the multivariate probabilistic collocation method with orthogonal fractional factorial design(M-PCM-OFFD)is employed to evaluate the uncertain channel measurements.With the estimated signal-to-noise ratio(SNR),we employ the IRL and M-PCM-OFFD to develop a saturated formation controller for AUVs,dealing with uncertain dynamics and current parameters.For the proposed formation approach,an integrated optimization solution is presented to make a balance between formation stability and communication efficiency.Main innovations lie in three aspects:1)Construct an integrated communication and control optimization framework;2)Design an IRL-based channel prediction estimator;3)Develop an IRL-based formation controller with M-PCM-OFFD.Finally,simulation results show that the formation approach can avoid local optimum estimation,improve the channel efficiency,and relax the dependence of AUV model parameters.展开更多
Severe matrix effects and high signal uncertainty are two key bottlenecks for the quantitative performance and wide applications of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS).Based on the understanding that the superp...Severe matrix effects and high signal uncertainty are two key bottlenecks for the quantitative performance and wide applications of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS).Based on the understanding that the superposition of both matrix effects and signal uncertainty directly affects plasma parameters and further influences spectral intensity and LIBS quantification performance,a data selection method based on plasma temperature matching(DSPTM)was proposed to reduce both matrix effects and signal uncertainty.By selecting spectra with smaller plasma temperature differences for all samples,the proposed method was able to build up the quantification model to rely more on spectra with smaller matrix effects and signal uncertainty,therefore improving final quantification performance.When applied to quantitative analysis of the zinc content in brass alloys,it was found that both accuracy and precision were improved using either a univariate model or multiple linear regression(MLR).More specifically,for the univariate model,the root-mean-square error of prediction(RMSEP),the determination coefficients(R^(2))and relative standard derivation(RSD)were improved from 3.30%,0.864 and 18.8%to 1.06%,0.986 and 13.5%,respectively;while for MLR,RMSEP,R^(2)and RSD were improved from 3.22%,0.871 and 26.2%to 1.07%,0.986 and 17.4%,respectively.These results prove that DSPTM can be used as an effective method to reduce matrix effects and improve repeatability by selecting reliable data.展开更多
Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties effici...Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties efficiently and reliably,this study developed an uncertainty inversion analysis method for rockfill material parameters using the stacking ensemble strategy and Jaya optimizer.The comprehensive implementation process of the proposed model was described with an illustrative CFRD example.First,the surrogate model method using the stacking ensemble algorithm was used to conduct the Monte Carlo stochastic finite element calculations with reduced computational cost and improved accuracy.Afterwards,the Jaya algorithm was used to inversely calculate the combination of the coefficient of variation of rockfill material parameters.This optimizer obtained higher accuracy and more significant uncertainty reduction than traditional optimizers.Overall,the developed model effectively identified the random parameters of rockfill materials.This study provided scientific references for uncertainty analysis of CFRDs.In addition,the proposed method can be applied to other similar engineering structures.展开更多
High entropy alloys(HEAs)have excellent application prospects in catalysis because of their rich components and configuration space.In this work,we develop a Bayesian neural network(BNN)based on energies calculated wi...High entropy alloys(HEAs)have excellent application prospects in catalysis because of their rich components and configuration space.In this work,we develop a Bayesian neural network(BNN)based on energies calculated with density functional theory to search the configuration space of the CoNiRhRu HEA system.The BNN model was developed by considering six independent features of Co-Ni,Co-Rh,CoRu,Ni-Rh,Ni-Ru,and Rh-Ru in different shells and energies of structures as the labels.The root mean squared error of the energy predicted by BNN is 1.37 me V/atom.Moreover,the influence of feature periodicity on the energy of HEA in theoretical calculations is discussed.We found that when the neural network is optimized to a certain extent,only using the accuracy indicator of root mean square error to evaluate model performance is no longer accurate in some scenarios.More importantly,we reveal the importance of uncertainty quantification for neural networks to predict new structures of HEAs with proper confidence based on BNN.展开更多
We present an efficient and risk-informed closed-loop field development (CLFD) workflow for recurrently revising the field development plan (FDP) using the accrued information. To make the process practical, we integr...We present an efficient and risk-informed closed-loop field development (CLFD) workflow for recurrently revising the field development plan (FDP) using the accrued information. To make the process practical, we integrated multiple concepts of machine learning, an intelligent selection process to discard the worst FDP options and a growing set of representative reservoir models. These concepts were combined and used with a cluster-based learning and evolution optimizer to efficiently explore the search space of decision variables. Unlike previous studies, we also added the execution time of the CLFD workflow and worked with more realistic timelines to confirm the utility of a CLFD workflow. To appreciate the importance of data assimilation and new well-logs in a CLFD workflow, we carried out researches at rigorous conditions without a reduction in uncertainty attributes. The proposed CLFD workflow was implemented on a benchmark analogous to a giant field with extensively time-consuming simulation models. The results underscore that an ensemble with as few as 100 scenarios was sufficient to gauge the geological uncertainty, despite working with a giant field with highly heterogeneous characteristics. It is demonstrated that the CLFD workflow can improve the efficiency by over 85% compared to the previously validated workflow. Finally, we present some acute insights and problems related to data assimilation for the practical application of a CLFD workflow.展开更多
The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary greatly.To better analyze the uncertainti...The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary greatly.To better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is necessary.We proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters.The method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty.The aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the model.The epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction error.The advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model uncertainty.Results show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the model.Both the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the model.When the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation results.The presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of uncertainty,which is of great significance to analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters and improve the accuracy of the calculation results.展开更多
Submarine groundwater discharge(SGD),which can be traced using naturally occurring radium isotopes,has been recognized as a significant nutrient source and land-ocean interaction passage for the coastal waters of the ...Submarine groundwater discharge(SGD),which can be traced using naturally occurring radium isotopes,has been recognized as a significant nutrient source and land-ocean interaction passage for the coastal waters of the Daya Bay,China.However,uncertainties in assessing SGD fluxes must still be discussed in detail.In this study,we attempted to utilize the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainties of radium-derived SGD flux in the northeast and entirety of the Daya Bay.The results show that the uncertainties of the SGD estimate in the northeast bay are very sensitive to variations in excess radium inventories as well as radium inputs from bottom sediments,while the uncertainties of the SGD estimate for the entire bay are strongly affected by fluctuations in radium inputs from bottom sediments and radium end-members of SGD.This study will help to distinguish the key factors controlling the accuracy of SGD estimates in similar coastal waters.展开更多
This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospher...This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration.The multi-model ensemble mean(MME)can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO_(2) concentration from 1850 to 2014,compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO_(2) Program and CMIP6 prescribed data,and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO_(2) concentration(which is overestimated after 1950).The growth rate of CO_(2) concentration in the northern hemisphere(NH)is higher than that in the southern hemisphere(SH),with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH.The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO_(2) concentration,which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s(especially in the NH).Although the results of the MME are reasonable,there is a large spread among ESMs,and the difference between the ESMs increases with time.The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO_(2) concentrations(such as northern Russia,eastern China,Southeast Asia,the eastern United States,northern South America,and southern Africa)have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread.Compared with CMIP5,the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO_(2) concentration that is much closer to the site observations,but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger.The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO_(2) between the simulations.展开更多
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42377174)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.ZR2022ME198)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.Z020006).
文摘Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.52274222)research project supported by Shanxi Scholarship Council of China(No.2023-036).
文摘This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.
基金supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011244).
文摘The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11472137 and U2141246)。
文摘In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.
文摘Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation metric for image classifier models and apply it to the CT image classification of lung cancer. A convolutional neural network is employed as the deep neural network (DNN) image classifier, with the residual network (ResNet) 50 chosen as the DNN archi-tecture. The image data used comprise a lung CT image set. Two classification models are built from datasets with varying amounts of data, and lung cancer is categorized into four classes using 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we employ t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding to visually explain the data distribution after classification. Experimental results demonstrate that cross en-tropy is a highly useful metric for evaluating the reliability of image classifier models. It is noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation of model perfor-mance, combining with other evaluation metrics is considered essential. .
文摘The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.
文摘The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.
文摘[Objectives]The paper was to establish an evaluation method for the uncertainty of stevioside(including stevioside,rebaudioside A,rebaudioside B,rebaudioside C,rebaudioside F,Dulcoside A,rubusoside and steviolbioside)content determination in fermented milk based on HPLC.[Methods]The mathematical model of stevioside content and the propagation rate of uncertainty were established,and the sources of uncertainty were analyzed.[Results]The uncertainty mainly came from four main aspects,including standard uncertainty u(C)introduced by solution concentration C,standard uncertainty u(V)introduced by sample volume V,standard uncertainty u(m)introduced by sample mass m weighing and standard uncertainty u(f_(rep))introduced by measurement repeatability of stevioside content after sample dissolution and constant volume.The uncertainty estimation table and fishbone chart of stevioside content X determination were established.The relative synthetic standard uncertainty of stevioside content was obtained,and the standard uncertainty was extended to form the measurement result of stevioside content and its uncertainty report.[Conclusions]The evaluation results can be directly applied to the daily practical detection work.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52274057,52074340 and 51874335the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNPC under Grant ZD2019-183-008the Science and Technology Support Plan for Youth Innovation of University in Shandong Province under Grant 2019KJH002,111 Project under Grant B08028.
文摘Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality results,they cannot be applied to real-time optimization for large-scale reservoirs due to high computational demands.In addition,most methods generally assume that the reservoir model is deterministic and ignore the uncertainty of the subsurface environment,making the obtained scheme unreliable for practical deployment.In this work,an efficient and robust method,namely evolutionaryassisted reinforcement learning(EARL),is proposed to achieve real-time production optimization under uncertainty.Specifically,the production optimization problem is modeled as a Markov decision process in which a reinforcement learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator to train a control policy that maximizes the specified goals.To deal with the problems of brittle convergence properties and lack of efficient exploration strategies of reinforcement learning approaches,a population-based evolutionary algorithm is introduced to assist the training of agents,which provides diverse exploration experiences and promotes stability and robustness due to its inherent redundancy.Compared with prior methods that only optimize a solution for a particular scenario,the proposed approach trains a policy that can adapt to uncertain environments and make real-time decisions to cope with unknown changes.The trained policy,represented by a deep convolutional neural network,can adaptively adjust the well controls based on different reservoir states.Simulation results on two reservoir models show that the proposed approach not only outperforms the RL and EA methods in terms of optimization efficiency but also has strong robustness and real-time decision capacity.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62222314,61973263,61873345,62033011)the Youth Talent Program of Hebei(BJ2020031)+2 种基金the Distinguished Young Foundation of Hebei Province(F2022203001)the Central Guidance Local Foundation of Hebei Province(226Z3201G)the Three-Three-Three Foundation of Hebei Province(C20221019)。
文摘Most formation approaches of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)focus on the control techniques,ignoring the influence of underwater channel.This paper is concerned with a communication-aware formation issue for AUVs,subject to model uncertainty and fading channel.An integral reinforcement learning(IRL)based estimator is designed to calculate the probabilistic channel parameters,wherein the multivariate probabilistic collocation method with orthogonal fractional factorial design(M-PCM-OFFD)is employed to evaluate the uncertain channel measurements.With the estimated signal-to-noise ratio(SNR),we employ the IRL and M-PCM-OFFD to develop a saturated formation controller for AUVs,dealing with uncertain dynamics and current parameters.For the proposed formation approach,an integrated optimization solution is presented to make a balance between formation stability and communication efficiency.Main innovations lie in three aspects:1)Construct an integrated communication and control optimization framework;2)Design an IRL-based channel prediction estimator;3)Develop an IRL-based formation controller with M-PCM-OFFD.Finally,simulation results show that the formation approach can avoid local optimum estimation,improve the channel efficiency,and relax the dependence of AUV model parameters.
基金financial support from the Scientific Research Program for Young Talents of China National Nuclear Corporation(2020)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51906124 and 62205172)+1 种基金Shanxi Province Science and Technology Department(No.20201101013)Guoneng Bengbu Power Generation Co.,Ltd(No.20212000001)。
文摘Severe matrix effects and high signal uncertainty are two key bottlenecks for the quantitative performance and wide applications of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS).Based on the understanding that the superposition of both matrix effects and signal uncertainty directly affects plasma parameters and further influences spectral intensity and LIBS quantification performance,a data selection method based on plasma temperature matching(DSPTM)was proposed to reduce both matrix effects and signal uncertainty.By selecting spectra with smaller plasma temperature differences for all samples,the proposed method was able to build up the quantification model to rely more on spectra with smaller matrix effects and signal uncertainty,therefore improving final quantification performance.When applied to quantitative analysis of the zinc content in brass alloys,it was found that both accuracy and precision were improved using either a univariate model or multiple linear regression(MLR).More specifically,for the univariate model,the root-mean-square error of prediction(RMSEP),the determination coefficients(R^(2))and relative standard derivation(RSD)were improved from 3.30%,0.864 and 18.8%to 1.06%,0.986 and 13.5%,respectively;while for MLR,RMSEP,R^(2)and RSD were improved from 3.22%,0.871 and 26.2%to 1.07%,0.986 and 17.4%,respectively.These results prove that DSPTM can be used as an effective method to reduce matrix effects and improve repeatability by selecting reliable data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51879185 and 52179139)the Open Fund of the Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering(Grant No.2020KSD06).
文摘Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties efficiently and reliably,this study developed an uncertainty inversion analysis method for rockfill material parameters using the stacking ensemble strategy and Jaya optimizer.The comprehensive implementation process of the proposed model was described with an illustrative CFRD example.First,the surrogate model method using the stacking ensemble algorithm was used to conduct the Monte Carlo stochastic finite element calculations with reduced computational cost and improved accuracy.Afterwards,the Jaya algorithm was used to inversely calculate the combination of the coefficient of variation of rockfill material parameters.This optimizer obtained higher accuracy and more significant uncertainty reduction than traditional optimizers.Overall,the developed model effectively identified the random parameters of rockfill materials.This study provided scientific references for uncertainty analysis of CFRDs.In addition,the proposed method can be applied to other similar engineering structures.
基金supported by the Shanghai Rising-Star Program (20QA1406800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (22072091,91745102,92045301)。
文摘High entropy alloys(HEAs)have excellent application prospects in catalysis because of their rich components and configuration space.In this work,we develop a Bayesian neural network(BNN)based on energies calculated with density functional theory to search the configuration space of the CoNiRhRu HEA system.The BNN model was developed by considering six independent features of Co-Ni,Co-Rh,CoRu,Ni-Rh,Ni-Ru,and Rh-Ru in different shells and energies of structures as the labels.The root mean squared error of the energy predicted by BNN is 1.37 me V/atom.Moreover,the influence of feature periodicity on the energy of HEA in theoretical calculations is discussed.We found that when the neural network is optimized to a certain extent,only using the accuracy indicator of root mean square error to evaluate model performance is no longer accurate in some scenarios.More importantly,we reveal the importance of uncertainty quantification for neural networks to predict new structures of HEAs with proper confidence based on BNN.
文摘We present an efficient and risk-informed closed-loop field development (CLFD) workflow for recurrently revising the field development plan (FDP) using the accrued information. To make the process practical, we integrated multiple concepts of machine learning, an intelligent selection process to discard the worst FDP options and a growing set of representative reservoir models. These concepts were combined and used with a cluster-based learning and evolution optimizer to efficiently explore the search space of decision variables. Unlike previous studies, we also added the execution time of the CLFD workflow and worked with more realistic timelines to confirm the utility of a CLFD workflow. To appreciate the importance of data assimilation and new well-logs in a CLFD workflow, we carried out researches at rigorous conditions without a reduction in uncertainty attributes. The proposed CLFD workflow was implemented on a benchmark analogous to a giant field with extensively time-consuming simulation models. The results underscore that an ensemble with as few as 100 scenarios was sufficient to gauge the geological uncertainty, despite working with a giant field with highly heterogeneous characteristics. It is demonstrated that the CLFD workflow can improve the efficiency by over 85% compared to the previously validated workflow. Finally, we present some acute insights and problems related to data assimilation for the practical application of a CLFD workflow.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52071306)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2019MEE050)。
文摘The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary greatly.To better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is necessary.We proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters.The method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty.The aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the model.The epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction error.The advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model uncertainty.Results show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the model.Both the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the model.When the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation results.The presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of uncertainty,which is of great significance to analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters and improve the accuracy of the calculation results.
基金The Project of Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application,Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.MESTA-2021-D006the China Ocean Development Foundation under contract No.CODF-002-ZX-2021+5 种基金the Science and Technology Plan Projects of Guangdong Province under contract No.2021B1212050025the Director’s Foundation of South China Sea Bureau of Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.230201the Research Fund Program of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Marine Biology under contract No.LAMB20221007the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China under contract No.2017A030310592the Key Program of Bureau Director of State Oceanic Administration under contract No.180104the Open Project of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.LTO1709.
文摘Submarine groundwater discharge(SGD),which can be traced using naturally occurring radium isotopes,has been recognized as a significant nutrient source and land-ocean interaction passage for the coastal waters of the Daya Bay,China.However,uncertainties in assessing SGD fluxes must still be discussed in detail.In this study,we attempted to utilize the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainties of radium-derived SGD flux in the northeast and entirety of the Daya Bay.The results show that the uncertainties of the SGD estimate in the northeast bay are very sensitive to variations in excess radium inventories as well as radium inputs from bottom sediments,while the uncertainties of the SGD estimate for the entire bay are strongly affected by fluctuations in radium inputs from bottom sediments and radium end-members of SGD.This study will help to distinguish the key factors controlling the accuracy of SGD estimates in similar coastal waters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42230608)the UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.
文摘This paper provides a systematic evaluation of the ability of 12 Earth System Models(ESMs)participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to simulate the spatial inhomogeneity of the atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration.The multi-model ensemble mean(MME)can reasonably simulate the increasing trend of CO_(2) concentration from 1850 to 2014,compared with the observation data from the Scripps CO_(2) Program and CMIP6 prescribed data,and improves upon the CMIP5 MME CO_(2) concentration(which is overestimated after 1950).The growth rate of CO_(2) concentration in the northern hemisphere(NH)is higher than that in the southern hemisphere(SH),with the highest growth rate in the mid-latitudes of the NH.The MME can also reasonably simulate the seasonal amplitude of CO_(2) concentration,which is larger in the NH than in the SH and grows in amplitude after the 1950s(especially in the NH).Although the results of the MME are reasonable,there is a large spread among ESMs,and the difference between the ESMs increases with time.The MME results show that regions with relatively large CO_(2) concentrations(such as northern Russia,eastern China,Southeast Asia,the eastern United States,northern South America,and southern Africa)have greater seasonal variability and also exhibit a larger inter-model spread.Compared with CMIP5,the CMIP6 MME simulates an average spatial distribution of CO_(2) concentration that is much closer to the site observations,but the CMIP6-inter-model spread is larger.The inter-model differences of the annual means and seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO_(2) concentration are both attributed to the differences in natural sources and sinks of CO_(2) between the simulations.
