To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Mill...In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Miller method is employed to solve the problem of non-unique solutions that may be encountered in the external acoustic field,and the nth-order discretization formulation of the boundary integral equation is derived.In addition,the computation of loop subdivision surfaces and the subdivision rules are introduced.In order to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm,the computed results are contrasted and analyzed with the results under Monte Carlo simulations(MCs)through several numerical examples.展开更多
Under the dual carbon goal,China Certified Emissions Reductions(CCER)and the national carbon market have become important means of emission reduction and control.The tourism industry is a strategic pillar industry of ...Under the dual carbon goal,China Certified Emissions Reductions(CCER)and the national carbon market have become important means of emission reduction and control.The tourism industry is a strategic pillar industry of China’s national economy,and scenic spots are the main sites of tourism activities.Research on carbon emissions in scenic spots is of great significance for the construction of low-carbon scenic spots and the realization of the dual carbon goal.In this paper,the research on carbon emissions in tourism is reviewed,the current research progress is discussed,and further prospects are made.The research on tourism carbon emissions in China has a good foundation and achieved certain results.However,there are few studies on micro-scales such as scenic spots.The statistical data caliber and measurement methods of carbon emissions are not uniform,and there is a general lack of uncertainty analysis.Future research should focus on building a multi-spatial dimension research system,unifying the statistical caliber and measurement methods of carbon emission data,increasing uncertainty analysis,and ensuring the robustness of research results.展开更多
This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An u...This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An uncertainty analysis method consisting of three components were applied in this study, where the three components include a bootstrapping method for analyzing the whole process associated uncertainty, an inhalation rate （IR） representation for evaluating the total PAH inhalation risk for human health, and a normally distributed absorption fraction （AF） ranging from 0% to 100% to represent the absorption capability of PAHs in human body. Using this method, an integrated process was employed to assess the health risk of the residents in Beijing, China, from inhaling PAHs in the air. The results indicate that the ambient air PAHs in Beijing is an important contributor to human health impairment, although over 68% of residents seem to be safe from daily PAH carcinogenic inhalation. In general, the accumulated daily inhalation amount is relatively higher for male and children at 10 years old of age than for female and children at 6 years old. In 1997, about 1.73% cancer sufferers in Beijing were more or less related to ambient air PAHs inhalation. At 95% confidence interval, approximately 272-309 individual cancer incidences can be attributed to PAHs pollution in the air. The probability of greater than 500 cancer occurrence is 15.3%. While the inhalation of ambient air PAHs was shown to be an important factor responsible for higher cancer occurrence in Beijing, while the contribution might not be the most significant one.展开更多
The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic suppor...The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.展开更多
Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered ...Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.展开更多
To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic researc...To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic research cannot refect the performance of the suspension under actual operating conditions.In this paper,a quasi-zero stifness isolator is used in automotive suspensions to form a new suspension−quasi-zero stifness air suspension(QZSAS).Due to the strong nonlinearity and structural complexity of quasi-zero stifness suspensions,changes in structural parameters may cause dramatic changes in suspension performance,so it is of practical importance to study the efect of structural parameter uncertainty on the suspension performance.In order to solve this problem,three suspension structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) are selected as random variables,and the polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)theory is used to solve the suspension performance parameters.The sensitivity of the performance parameters to diferent structural parameters was discussed and analyzed in the frequency domain.Furthermore,a multi-objective optimization of the structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) of QZSAS was performed with the mean and variance of the root-mean-square(RMS)acceleration values as the optimization objectives.The optimization results show that there is an improvement of about 8%−1_(0)%in the mean value and about 4_(0)%−55%in the standard deviation of acceleration(RMS)values.This paper verifes the feasibility of the PCE method for solving the uncertainty problem of complex nonlinear systems,which provide a reference for the future structural design and optimization of such suspension systems.展开更多
This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertai...This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertainties due to ship-bank distance and water depth are considered,and they are calculated via the partial differentials of the regression formulae based on the test data.The general part of the uncertainty analysis(UA)is performed according to the ITTC recommended procedure 7.5-02-06.04,while the uncertainty of speed is identified as the bias limit due to the flow velocity maldistribution in the CWC.In each example test for the UA of ship-bank interaction forces,12 repeated measurements were conducted.Results from the UA show that the contribution of water depth error and flow velocity maldistribution to the total uncertainty is noticeable,and the paper explains how they increase with the change of the test conditions.The present study will be useful in understanding the uncertainty regarding the ship-bank interaction force measurement in a CWC.展开更多
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to inve...The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to investigate the associateduncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period （1991–2000） with aninitial 4-year warm-up period （1987–1990）, and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period （2001–2010）. Themodel evaluation indices R2 （the coefficient of determination）, NS （the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency）, and PBIAS （percentbias） for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows.To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor （a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU） and r-factors （averagewideness width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values） were taken into account.The 95PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factorwas 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients（R2 and NS） for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibrationand validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increasednumber of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonableparameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertaintyduring the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessmentof water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.展开更多
The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretize...The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretized into 23 sub-basins and 226 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using 3 arc second (90 m × 90 m) pixel resolution SRTM DEM with stream gauge B7H015 as the Basin outlet. Observed stream flow data at B7H015 were used for model calibration (1988-2001) and validation (2002-2013) using the split sample approach. Relative global sensitivity analysis using SUFI-2 algorithm was used to determine sensitive parameters to stream flow for calibration of the model. Performance efficiency of the Olifants SWAT model was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root Mean Square Error-Observation Standard deviation Ratio (RSR). Sensitivity analysis revealed in decreasing order of significance, runoff curve number (CN2), alpha bank factor (ALPHA_BNK), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), soil available water capacity (SOIL_AWC, mm H<sub>2</sub>O/mm soil), groundwater delay (GW_ DELAY, days) and groundwater “revap” coefficient (GW_REVAP) to be the most sensitive parameters to stream flow. Analysis of the model during the calibration period gave the following statistics;NSE = 0.88;R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89;PBIAS = -11.49%;RSR = 0.34. On the other hand, statistics during the validation period were NSE = 0.67;R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.79;PBIAS = -20.69%;RSR = 0.57. The observed statistics indicate the applicability of the SWAT model in simulating the hydrology of the Olifants Basin and therefore can be used as a Decision Support Tool (DST) by water managers and other relevant decisions making bodies to influence policy directions on the management of watershed processes especially water resources.展开更多
In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea le...In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation （ten years, for instance）. Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible.展开更多
The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of l...The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.展开更多
The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cros...The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the <em>mixed</em> 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.展开更多
In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM）...In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM） and an integrating sphere transfer radiometer（ISTR） was designed in this paper.Depending on the Sun,this chain based on detectors provides precise spectral radiometric calibration and measurement to spectrometers in the reflective solar band（RSB） covering 300–2500 nm with a spectral bandwidth of 0.5–6 nm.It shortens the traditional chain based on lamp source and reduces the calibration uncertainty from 5% to 0.5% by using the cryogenic radiometer in space as a radiometric benchmark and trap detectors as secondary standard.This paper also gives a detailed uncertainty budget with reasonable distribution of each impact factor,including the weak spectral signal measurement with uncertainty of 0.28%.According to the peculiar design and comprehensive uncertainty analysis,it illustrates that the spectral radiance measurement uncertainty of the ISTR system can reach to 0.48%.The result satisfies the requirements of SI-traceable on-orbit calibration and has wider significance for expanding the application of the remote sensing data with high-quality.展开更多
The analysis of large time-series datasets has profoundly enhanced our ability to make accurate predictions in many fields.However,unpredictable phenomena,such as extreme weather events or the novel coronavirus 2019(C...The analysis of large time-series datasets has profoundly enhanced our ability to make accurate predictions in many fields.However,unpredictable phenomena,such as extreme weather events or the novel coronavirus 2019(COVID-19)outbreak,can greatly limit the ability of time-series analyses to establish reliable patterns.The present work addresses this issue by applying uncertainty analysis using a probability distribution function,and applies the proposed scheme within a preliminary study involving the prediction of power consumption for a single hotel in Seoul,South Korea based on an analysis of 53,567 data items collected by the Korea Electric Power Corporation using robotic process automation.We first apply Facebook Prophet for conducting time-series analysis.The results demonstrate that the COVID19 outbreak seriously compromised the reliability of the time-series analysis.Then,machine learning models are developed in the TensorFlow framework for conducting uncertainty analysis based on modeled relationships between electric power consumption and outdoor temperature.The benefits of the proposed uncertainty analysis for predicting the electricity consumption of the hotel building are demonstrated by comparing the results obtained when considering no uncertainty,aleatory uncertainty,epistemic uncertainty,and mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.The minimum and maximum ranges of predicted electricity consumption are obtained when using mixed uncertainty.Accordingly,the application of uncertainty analysis using a probability distribution function greatly improved the predictive power of the analysis compared to time-series analysis.展开更多
The effect of uncertainty and its evolution with time on the incline hoist reliability are investigated in this paper.The performance of incline hoist is changed over time and gradually degraded.The degradation will i...The effect of uncertainty and its evolution with time on the incline hoist reliability are investigated in this paper.The performance of incline hoist is changed over time and gradually degraded.The degradation will influence the safe usage and reliability of incline hoist.Degradation process can be described by stochastic process.The degradation process of incline hoist is modeled in geometric Brownian motions(GBM),and the drift rate and diffusion rate of this process can reflect the failure extent and fluctuation of the system.Evolution-based uncertainty analysis(EBUA)method is proposed to describe the dynamic reliability of the incline hoist,and the system of incline hoist can be designed with the specified reliability value at the given time.展开更多
This paper proposes a non-intrusive uncertainty analysis method for artillery dynamics involving hybrid uncertainty using polynomial chaos expansion(PCE).The uncertainty parameters with sufficient information are rega...This paper proposes a non-intrusive uncertainty analysis method for artillery dynamics involving hybrid uncertainty using polynomial chaos expansion(PCE).The uncertainty parameters with sufficient information are regarded as stochastic variables,whereas the interval variables are used to treat the uncertainty parameters with limited stochastic knowledge.In this method,the PCE model is constructed through the Galerkin projection method,in which the sparse grid strategy is used to generate the integral points and the corresponding integral weights.Through the sampling in PCE,the original dynamic systems with hybrid stochastic and interval parameters can be transformed into deterministic dynamic systems,without changing their expressions.The yielded PCE model is utilized as a computationally efficient,surrogate model,and the supremum and infimum of the dynamic responses over all time iteration steps can be easily approximated through Monte Carlo simulation and percentile difference.A numerical example and an artillery exterior ballistic dynamics model are used to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of this approach.The numerical results indicate that the dynamic response bounds obtained by the PCE approach almost match the results of the direct Monte Carlo simulation,but the computational efficiency of the PCE approach is much higher than direct Monte Carlo simulation.Moreover,the proposed method also exhibits fine precision even in high-dimensional uncertainty analysis problems.展开更多
The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical mea...The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical measurements.This introduces inevitable uncertainty stemming from the measured RWCPs,which consequently impacts the precision of model simulations.Here we enhance the accuracy of the PRP model by addressing the uncertainty of RWCPs.We established a critical sampling size of 2000 household water consumption patterns(HWCPs)with a data logging interval(DLI)of 15 min to attain dependable RWCPs.Through Genetic Algorithm calibration,the optimal values of the PRP model's parameters were determined:pulse frequency lλ=91 d^(-1),mean of pulse intensity E(I)=0.346 m^(3) h^(-1),standard deviation of pulse intensity STD(I)=0.292 m^(3) h^(-1),mean of pulse duration E(D)=40 s,and standard deviation of pulse duration STD(D)=55 s.Furthermore,validation was conducted at both HWCP and RWCP levels.We recommend a sampling size of2000 HWCPs and a DLI of30 min for PRP model calibration to balance simulation precision and practical implementation.This study significantly advances the theoretical foundation and real-world application of the PRP model,enhancing its role in urban water supply system management.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on pe...Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance.In this study,based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade,the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed,and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on Principal-Component Analysis(PCA)are verified.The geometric variations are found to be evident,asymmetric,and non-uniform,and the non-normality of the random distributions is non-negligible.The performance is notably affected,which is manifested as an overall offset,a notable scattering,and significant deterioration in several extreme cases.Additionally,it is demonstrated that the PCA reconstruction model is effective in characterizing major uncertainty characteristics of the geometric variations and their impact on the performance with almost the first 10 PCA modes.Based on a reasonable profile error and mean geometric deviation,the Gaussian assumption and stochasticprocess-based model are also found to be effective in predicting the mean values and standard deviations of the performance variations.However,they fail to predict the probability of some extreme cases with high loss.Finally,a Chi-square-based correction model is proposed to compensate for this deficiency.The present work can provide a useful reference for uncertainty analysis of the impact of geometric variations,and the corresponding uncertainty design of turbine blades.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
基金sponsored by the Graduate Student Research and Innovation Fund of Xinyang Normal University under No.2024KYJJ012.
文摘In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Miller method is employed to solve the problem of non-unique solutions that may be encountered in the external acoustic field,and the nth-order discretization formulation of the boundary integral equation is derived.In addition,the computation of loop subdivision surfaces and the subdivision rules are introduced.In order to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm,the computed results are contrasted and analyzed with the results under Monte Carlo simulations(MCs)through several numerical examples.
基金Chongqing University of Science and Technology Graduate Student Innovation Project“Data-Driven Scenic Carbon Footprint and Its Uncertainty Analysis”(No.YKJCX2220911).
文摘Under the dual carbon goal,China Certified Emissions Reductions(CCER)and the national carbon market have become important means of emission reduction and control.The tourism industry is a strategic pillar industry of China’s national economy,and scenic spots are the main sites of tourism activities.Research on carbon emissions in scenic spots is of great significance for the construction of low-carbon scenic spots and the realization of the dual carbon goal.In this paper,the research on carbon emissions in tourism is reviewed,the current research progress is discussed,and further prospects are made.The research on tourism carbon emissions in China has a good foundation and achieved certain results.However,there are few studies on micro-scales such as scenic spots.The statistical data caliber and measurement methods of carbon emissions are not uniform,and there is a general lack of uncertainty analysis.Future research should focus on building a multi-spatial dimension research system,unifying the statistical caliber and measurement methods of carbon emission data,increasing uncertainty analysis,and ensuring the robustness of research results.
文摘This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An uncertainty analysis method consisting of three components were applied in this study, where the three components include a bootstrapping method for analyzing the whole process associated uncertainty, an inhalation rate （IR） representation for evaluating the total PAH inhalation risk for human health, and a normally distributed absorption fraction （AF） ranging from 0% to 100% to represent the absorption capability of PAHs in human body. Using this method, an integrated process was employed to assess the health risk of the residents in Beijing, China, from inhaling PAHs in the air. The results indicate that the ambient air PAHs in Beijing is an important contributor to human health impairment, although over 68% of residents seem to be safe from daily PAH carcinogenic inhalation. In general, the accumulated daily inhalation amount is relatively higher for male and children at 10 years old of age than for female and children at 6 years old. In 1997, about 1.73% cancer sufferers in Beijing were more or less related to ambient air PAHs inhalation. At 95% confidence interval, approximately 272-309 individual cancer incidences can be attributed to PAHs pollution in the air. The probability of greater than 500 cancer occurrence is 15.3%. While the inhalation of ambient air PAHs was shown to be an important factor responsible for higher cancer occurrence in Beijing, while the contribution might not be the most significant one.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171008)
文摘The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.
基金funded by the Marine Public Welfare Pro-ject of China (Nos. 200705029, 200805080)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2002CB412406)SOA-funded Program (No. 908-02-04-03)
文摘Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51875256)Open Platform Fund of Hunan Institute of Technology of China(Grant No.KFA20009)Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan Science and Technology Cooperation Project in Jiangsu Province of China(Grant No.BZ2020050)。
文摘To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic research cannot refect the performance of the suspension under actual operating conditions.In this paper,a quasi-zero stifness isolator is used in automotive suspensions to form a new suspension−quasi-zero stifness air suspension(QZSAS).Due to the strong nonlinearity and structural complexity of quasi-zero stifness suspensions,changes in structural parameters may cause dramatic changes in suspension performance,so it is of practical importance to study the efect of structural parameter uncertainty on the suspension performance.In order to solve this problem,three suspension structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) are selected as random variables,and the polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)theory is used to solve the suspension performance parameters.The sensitivity of the performance parameters to diferent structural parameters was discussed and analyzed in the frequency domain.Furthermore,a multi-objective optimization of the structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) of QZSAS was performed with the mean and variance of the root-mean-square(RMS)acceleration values as the optimization objectives.The optimization results show that there is an improvement of about 8%−1_(0)%in the mean value and about 4_(0)%−55%in the standard deviation of acceleration(RMS)values.This paper verifes the feasibility of the PCE method for solving the uncertainty problem of complex nonlinear systems,which provide a reference for the future structural design and optimization of such suspension systems.
基金This study is financially supported by the China Ministry of Education Key Research Project“KSHIP-II Project”(Grant No.GKZY010004).
文摘This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertainties due to ship-bank distance and water depth are considered,and they are calculated via the partial differentials of the regression formulae based on the test data.The general part of the uncertainty analysis(UA)is performed according to the ITTC recommended procedure 7.5-02-06.04,while the uncertainty of speed is identified as the bias limit due to the flow velocity maldistribution in the CWC.In each example test for the UA of ship-bank interaction forces,12 repeated measurements were conducted.Results from the UA show that the contribution of water depth error and flow velocity maldistribution to the total uncertainty is noticeable,and the paper explains how they increase with the change of the test conditions.The present study will be useful in understanding the uncertainty regarding the ship-bank interaction force measurement in a CWC.
基金supported by the Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, and local authorities in Pakistan
文摘The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to investigate the associateduncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period （1991–2000） with aninitial 4-year warm-up period （1987–1990）, and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period （2001–2010）. Themodel evaluation indices R2 （the coefficient of determination）, NS （the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency）, and PBIAS （percentbias） for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows.To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor （a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU） and r-factors （averagewideness width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values） were taken into account.The 95PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factorwas 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients（R2 and NS） for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibrationand validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increasednumber of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonableparameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertaintyduring the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessmentof water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.
文摘The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretized into 23 sub-basins and 226 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using 3 arc second (90 m × 90 m) pixel resolution SRTM DEM with stream gauge B7H015 as the Basin outlet. Observed stream flow data at B7H015 were used for model calibration (1988-2001) and validation (2002-2013) using the split sample approach. Relative global sensitivity analysis using SUFI-2 algorithm was used to determine sensitive parameters to stream flow for calibration of the model. Performance efficiency of the Olifants SWAT model was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root Mean Square Error-Observation Standard deviation Ratio (RSR). Sensitivity analysis revealed in decreasing order of significance, runoff curve number (CN2), alpha bank factor (ALPHA_BNK), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), soil available water capacity (SOIL_AWC, mm H<sub>2</sub>O/mm soil), groundwater delay (GW_ DELAY, days) and groundwater “revap” coefficient (GW_REVAP) to be the most sensitive parameters to stream flow. Analysis of the model during the calibration period gave the following statistics;NSE = 0.88;R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89;PBIAS = -11.49%;RSR = 0.34. On the other hand, statistics during the validation period were NSE = 0.67;R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.79;PBIAS = -20.69%;RSR = 0.57. The observed statistics indicate the applicability of the SWAT model in simulating the hydrology of the Olifants Basin and therefore can be used as a Decision Support Tool (DST) by water managers and other relevant decisions making bodies to influence policy directions on the management of watershed processes especially water resources.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51309091)the Environmental Protection Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.2010080)
文摘In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation （ten years, for instance）. Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible.
文摘The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.
文摘The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the <em>mixed</em> 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41474161)the National High-Technology Program of China(Grant No.2015AA123703)
文摘In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM） and an integrating sphere transfer radiometer（ISTR） was designed in this paper.Depending on the Sun,this chain based on detectors provides precise spectral radiometric calibration and measurement to spectrometers in the reflective solar band（RSB） covering 300–2500 nm with a spectral bandwidth of 0.5–6 nm.It shortens the traditional chain based on lamp source and reduces the calibration uncertainty from 5% to 0.5% by using the cryogenic radiometer in space as a radiometric benchmark and trap detectors as secondary standard.This paper also gives a detailed uncertainty budget with reasonable distribution of each impact factor,including the weak spectral signal measurement with uncertainty of 0.28%.According to the peculiar design and comprehensive uncertainty analysis,it illustrates that the spectral radiance measurement uncertainty of the ISTR system can reach to 0.48%.The result satisfies the requirements of SI-traceable on-orbit calibration and has wider significance for expanding the application of the remote sensing data with high-quality.
文摘The analysis of large time-series datasets has profoundly enhanced our ability to make accurate predictions in many fields.However,unpredictable phenomena,such as extreme weather events or the novel coronavirus 2019(COVID-19)outbreak,can greatly limit the ability of time-series analyses to establish reliable patterns.The present work addresses this issue by applying uncertainty analysis using a probability distribution function,and applies the proposed scheme within a preliminary study involving the prediction of power consumption for a single hotel in Seoul,South Korea based on an analysis of 53,567 data items collected by the Korea Electric Power Corporation using robotic process automation.We first apply Facebook Prophet for conducting time-series analysis.The results demonstrate that the COVID19 outbreak seriously compromised the reliability of the time-series analysis.Then,machine learning models are developed in the TensorFlow framework for conducting uncertainty analysis based on modeled relationships between electric power consumption and outdoor temperature.The benefits of the proposed uncertainty analysis for predicting the electricity consumption of the hotel building are demonstrated by comparing the results obtained when considering no uncertainty,aleatory uncertainty,epistemic uncertainty,and mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.The minimum and maximum ranges of predicted electricity consumption are obtained when using mixed uncertainty.Accordingly,the application of uncertainty analysis using a probability distribution function greatly improved the predictive power of the analysis compared to time-series analysis.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51075029)
文摘The effect of uncertainty and its evolution with time on the incline hoist reliability are investigated in this paper.The performance of incline hoist is changed over time and gradually degraded.The degradation will influence the safe usage and reliability of incline hoist.Degradation process can be described by stochastic process.The degradation process of incline hoist is modeled in geometric Brownian motions(GBM),and the drift rate and diffusion rate of this process can reflect the failure extent and fluctuation of the system.Evolution-based uncertainty analysis(EBUA)method is proposed to describe the dynamic reliability of the incline hoist,and the system of incline hoist can be designed with the specified reliability value at the given time.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China[Grant Nos.301070603,11572158]。
文摘This paper proposes a non-intrusive uncertainty analysis method for artillery dynamics involving hybrid uncertainty using polynomial chaos expansion(PCE).The uncertainty parameters with sufficient information are regarded as stochastic variables,whereas the interval variables are used to treat the uncertainty parameters with limited stochastic knowledge.In this method,the PCE model is constructed through the Galerkin projection method,in which the sparse grid strategy is used to generate the integral points and the corresponding integral weights.Through the sampling in PCE,the original dynamic systems with hybrid stochastic and interval parameters can be transformed into deterministic dynamic systems,without changing their expressions.The yielded PCE model is utilized as a computationally efficient,surrogate model,and the supremum and infimum of the dynamic responses over all time iteration steps can be easily approximated through Monte Carlo simulation and percentile difference.A numerical example and an artillery exterior ballistic dynamics model are used to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of this approach.The numerical results indicate that the dynamic response bounds obtained by the PCE approach almost match the results of the direct Monte Carlo simulation,but the computational efficiency of the PCE approach is much higher than direct Monte Carlo simulation.Moreover,the proposed method also exhibits fine precision even in high-dimensional uncertainty analysis problems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52170105)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2019YFD1100105)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019043).
文摘The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse(PRP)model,employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns(RWCPs),relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical measurements.This introduces inevitable uncertainty stemming from the measured RWCPs,which consequently impacts the precision of model simulations.Here we enhance the accuracy of the PRP model by addressing the uncertainty of RWCPs.We established a critical sampling size of 2000 household water consumption patterns(HWCPs)with a data logging interval(DLI)of 15 min to attain dependable RWCPs.Through Genetic Algorithm calibration,the optimal values of the PRP model's parameters were determined:pulse frequency lλ=91 d^(-1),mean of pulse intensity E(I)=0.346 m^(3) h^(-1),standard deviation of pulse intensity STD(I)=0.292 m^(3) h^(-1),mean of pulse duration E(D)=40 s,and standard deviation of pulse duration STD(D)=55 s.Furthermore,validation was conducted at both HWCP and RWCP levels.We recommend a sampling size of2000 HWCPs and a DLI of30 min for PRP model calibration to balance simulation precision and practical implementation.This study significantly advances the theoretical foundation and real-world application of the PRP model,enhancing its role in urban water supply system management.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project, China (No. J2019-II-0012-0032)
文摘Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance.In this study,based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade,the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed,and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on Principal-Component Analysis(PCA)are verified.The geometric variations are found to be evident,asymmetric,and non-uniform,and the non-normality of the random distributions is non-negligible.The performance is notably affected,which is manifested as an overall offset,a notable scattering,and significant deterioration in several extreme cases.Additionally,it is demonstrated that the PCA reconstruction model is effective in characterizing major uncertainty characteristics of the geometric variations and their impact on the performance with almost the first 10 PCA modes.Based on a reasonable profile error and mean geometric deviation,the Gaussian assumption and stochasticprocess-based model are also found to be effective in predicting the mean values and standard deviations of the performance variations.However,they fail to predict the probability of some extreme cases with high loss.Finally,a Chi-square-based correction model is proposed to compensate for this deficiency.The present work can provide a useful reference for uncertainty analysis of the impact of geometric variations,and the corresponding uncertainty design of turbine blades.
