Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic.In this paper,we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model,to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,which accounts for th...Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic.In this paper,we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model,to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant.In particular,the specific features of the variants(e.g.their increased transmission rate)and vaccines(e.g.their efficacy to prevent transmission,hospitalization and death)are modeled,based on clinical evidence.The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.展开更多
基金Dipartimento perle politiche della famiglia,Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri,under the Agreement“Un modello matematico per lo studio dell'epidemia da COVID19 su scala nazionale”(DIPOFAM 0000192 P-4.26.1.9,15/01/2021).
文摘Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic.In this paper,we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model,to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy,which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant.In particular,the specific features of the variants(e.g.their increased transmission rate)and vaccines(e.g.their efficacy to prevent transmission,hospitalization and death)are modeled,based on clinical evidence.The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.
