Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,deg...Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.展开更多
In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming ...In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.展开更多
Trees progress through various growth stages,each marked by specific responses and adaptation strate-gies to environmental conditions.Despite the importance of age-related growth responses on overall forest health and...Trees progress through various growth stages,each marked by specific responses and adaptation strate-gies to environmental conditions.Despite the importance of age-related growth responses on overall forest health and management policies,limited knowledge exists regarding age-related effects on dendroclimatic relationships in key subtropical tree species.In this study,we employed a den-drochronological method to examine the impact of rapid warming on growth dynamics and climatic sensitivity of young(40–60 years)and old(100–180 years)Pinus mas-soniana forests across six sites in central-southern China.The normalized log basal area increment of trees in both age groups increased significantly following rapid warming in 1984.Trees in young forests further showed a distinct growth decline during a prolonged severe drought(2004–2013),whereas those in old forests maintained growth increases.Tree growth was more strongly influenced by temperature than by moisture,particularly in old forests.Spring tem-peratures strongly and positively impacted the growth of old trees but had a weaker effect on young ones.Old forests had a significantly lower resistance to extreme drought but faster recovery compared to young forests.The“divergence problem”was more pronounced in younger forests due to their heightened sensitivity to warming-induced drought and heat stress.With ongoing warming,young forests also may initially experience a growth decline due to their heightened sensitivity to winter drought.Our findings underscore the importance of considering age-dependent changes in forest/tree growth response to warming in subtropical forest man-agement,particularly in the context of achieving“Carbon Peak&Carbon Neutrality”goals in China.展开更多
Global climate change is characterized by asymmetric warming,i.e.,greater temperature increases in winter,spring,and nighttime than in summer,autumn,and daytime.Field experiments were conducted using four wheat cultiv...Global climate change is characterized by asymmetric warming,i.e.,greater temperature increases in winter,spring,and nighttime than in summer,autumn,and daytime.Field experiments were conducted using four wheat cultivars,namely‘Yangmai 18’(YM18),‘Sumai 188’(SM188),‘Yannong 19’(YN19),and‘Annong 0711’(AN0711),in the two growing seasons of 2019-2020 and 2020-2021,with passive night warming during different periods in the early growth stage.The treatments were night warming during the tillering-jointing(NW_(T-J)),jointing-booting(NWJ-B),and booting-anthesis(NWB-A)stages,with ambient temperature(NN)as the control.The effects of night warming during different stages on wheat yield formation were investigated by determining the characteristics of dry matter accumulation and translocation,as well as sucrose and starch accumulation in wheat grains.The wheat yields of all four cultivars were significantly higher in NW_(T-J)than in NN in the 2-year experiment.The yield increases of semi-winter cultivars YN19 and AN0711 were greater than those of spring cultivars YM18 and SM188.Treatment NW_(T-J)increased wheat yield mainly by increasing the 1,000-grain weight and the number of fertile spikelets,and it increased dry matter accumulation in various organs of wheat at the anthesis and maturity stages by increasing the growth rate at the vegetative growth stage.The flag leaf and spike showed the largest increases in dry matter accumulation.NW_(T-J)also increased the grain sucrose and starch contents in the early and middle grain-filling stages,promoting yield formation.Overall,night warming between the tillering and jointing stages increased the pre-anthesis growth rate,and thus,wheat dry matter production,which contributed to an increase in wheat yield.展开更多
The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects...The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.展开更多
As one of the regions most affected by global climate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced several ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is con...As one of the regions most affected by global climate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced several ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Mountains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(Tmax6-8) variations from 1718 to2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed Tmax6-8.Over the past 300 years,the Tmax6-8reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal variabilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18 ℃/decade) after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The Tmax6-8variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that climate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mechanisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.展开更多
As one of the regions most affected by global cli-mate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced sev-eral ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is c...As one of the regions most affected by global cli-mate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced sev-eral ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Moun-tains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(T_(max6-8))variations from 1718 to 2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed T_(max6-8).Over the past 300 years,the T_(max6-8)reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal vari-abilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18°C/decade)after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The T_(max6-8) variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the sum-mer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that cli-mate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mech-anisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.展开更多
Climate warming profoundly affects plant biodiversity, community productivity, and soil properties in alpine and subalpine grassland ecosystems. However, these effects are poorly understood across elevational gradient...Climate warming profoundly affects plant biodiversity, community productivity, and soil properties in alpine and subalpine grassland ecosystems. However, these effects are poorly understood across elevational gradients in subalpine meadow ecosystems. To reveal the elevational patterns of warming effects on plant biodiversity, community structure, productivity, and soil properties, we conducted a warming experiment using open-top chambers from August 2019 to August 2022 at high(2764 m a. s. l.), medium(2631 m a. s. l.), and low(2544 m a. s. l.) elevational gradients on a subalpine meadow slope of Mount Wutai, Northern China. Our results showed that three years of warming significantly increased topsoil temperature but significantly decreased topsoil moisture at all elevations(P<0.05), and the percentage of increasing temperature and decreasing moisture both gradually raised with elevation lifting. Warming-induced decreasing proportions of soil organic carbon(SOC, by 19.24%), and total nitrogen(TN, by 24.56%) were the greatest at high elevational gradients. Experimental warming did not affect topsoil C: N, p H, NO_(3)^(-)-N, or NH_(4)^(+)-N at the three elevational gradients. Warming significantly increased species richness(P<0.01) and Shannon-Weiner index(P<0.05) at low elevational gradients but significantly decreased belowground biomass(P<0.05) at a depth of 0–10 cm at three elevational gradients. Warming caused significant increases in the aboveground biomass in the three elevational plots. Warming significantly increased the aboveground biomass of graminoids in medium(by 92.47%) and low(by 98.25%) elevational gradients, that of sedges in high(by 72.44%) and medium(by 57.16%) elevational plots, and that of forbs in high(by 75.88%), medium(by 34.38%), and low(by 74.95%) elevational plots. Species richness had significant linear correlations with SOC, TN, and C: N(P<0.05), but significant nonlinear responses to soil temperature and soil moisture in the warmed treatment(P<0.05). The warmed aboveground biomass had a significant nonlinear response to soil temperature and significant linear responses to soil moisture(P<0.05). This study provided evidence that altitude is a factor in sensitivity to climate warming, and these different parameters(e.g., plant species richness, Shannon-Weiner index, soil temperature, soil moisture, SOC, and TN) can be used to measure this sensitivity.展开更多
Changes in the activities of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)at the end of 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are assessed by adopting 17 CMIP6 models and the weak-temperature-gradient assumpti...Changes in the activities of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)at the end of 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are assessed by adopting 17 CMIP6 models and the weak-temperature-gradient assumption.Results show that the intraseasonal variations become more structured.The BSISO-related precipitation anomaly shows a larger zonal scale and propagates further northward.However,there is no broad agreement among models on the changes in the eastward and northward propagation speeds and the frequency of individual phases.In the western North Pacific(WNP),the BSISO precipitation variance is significantly increased,at 4.62%K^(−1),due to the significantly increased efficiency of vertical moisture transport per unit of BSISO apparent heating.The vertical velocity variance is significantly decreased,at−3.51%K^(−1),in the middle troposphere,due to the significantly increased mean-state static stability.Changes in the lower-level zonal wind variance are relatively complex,with a significant increase stretching from the northwestern to southeastern WNP,but the opposite in other regions.This is probably due to the combined impacts of the northeastward shift of the BSISO signals and the reduced BSISO vertical velocity variance under global warming.Changes in strong and normal BSISO events in the WNP are also compared.They show same-signed changes in precipitation and large-scale circulation anomalies but opposite changes in the vertical velocity anomalies.This is probably because the precipitation anomaly of strong(normal)events changes at a rate much larger(smaller)than that of the meanstate static stability,causing enhanced(reduced)vertical motion.展开更多
The ocean conditions beneath the ice cover play a key role in understanding the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions.An integrated high-frequency ice-ocean observation system,including Acoustic Doppler Velocimete...The ocean conditions beneath the ice cover play a key role in understanding the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions.An integrated high-frequency ice-ocean observation system,including Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter,Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Sensor,and Sea Ice Mass Balance Array(SIMBA),was deployed in the landfast ice region close to the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Antarctica.A sudden ocean warming of 0.14℃(p<0.01)was observed beneath early-frozen landfast ice,from(−1.60±0.03)℃during April 16-19 to(−1.46±0.07)℃during April 20-23,2021,which is the only significant warming event in the nearly 8-month records.The sudden ocean warming brought a double rise in oceanic heat flux,from(21.7±11.1)W/m^(2) during April 16-19 to(44.8±21.3)W/m^(2) during April 20-23,2021,which shifted the original growth phase at the ice bottom,leading to a 2 cm melting,as shown from SIMBA and borehole observations.Simultaneously,the slowdown of ice bottom freezing decreased salt rejection,and the daily trend of observed ocean salinity changed from+0.02 d^(-1) during April 16-19,2021 to+0.003 d^(-1) during April 20-23,2021.The potential reasons are increased air temperature due to the transit cyclones and the weakened vertical ocean mixing due to the tide phase transformation from semi-diurnal to diurnal.The high-frequency observations within the ice-ocean boundary layer enhance the comprehensive investigation of the ocean’s influence on ice evolution at a daily scale.展开更多
The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variab...The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.展开更多
Understanding how summer warming influences the parent and daughter shoot production in a perennial clonal grass is vital for comprehending the response of grassland productivity to global warming.Here,we conducted a s...Understanding how summer warming influences the parent and daughter shoot production in a perennial clonal grass is vital for comprehending the response of grassland productivity to global warming.Here,we conducted a simulated experiment using potted Leymus chinensis,to study the relationship between the photosynthetic activ-ity of parent shoots and the production of daughter shoots under a whole(90 days)summer warming scenario(+3°C).The results showed that the biomass of parents and buds decreased by 25.52%and 33.45%,respectively,under warming conditions.The reduction in parent shoot biomass due to warming directly resulted from decreased leaf area(18.03%),chlorophyll a(18.27%),chlorophyll b(29.21%)content,as well as a reduction in net photosynthetic rate(7.32%)and the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II(PSII)photochemistry(4.29%).The decline in daughter shoot biomass was linked to a decrease in daughter shoot number(33.33%)by warming.However,the number of belowground buds increased by 46.43%.The results indicated that long-term summer warming reduces biomass accumulation in parent shoot by increasing both limitation of stoma and non-stoma.Consequently,the parent shoot allocates relatively more biomass to the belowground organs to maintain the survival and growth of buds.Overall,buds,as a potential aboveground population,could remedy for the cur-rent loss of parent shoot density by increasing the number of future daughter shoots if summer warming subsides.展开更多
Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The ...Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.展开更多
Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the po...Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the polar vortices,and stratospheric Planetary Waves(PWs)by analyzing and comparing their trends.Interestingly,within overall increasing trends,the duration and strength of SSWs exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after the winter of 2002,respectively.To reveal possible physical mechanisms driving these trends,we analyzed the long-term trends of the winter(from December to February)polar vortices and of stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1.Notably,our results show that in all three time periods(the entire period of 41winters,1980 to 2020,and the two subperiods—1980-2002 and 2002-2020)enhancing SSWs were always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices and strengthening polar PWs like Stationary Planetary Waves(SPWs)and 16-day waves,and vice versa.This is the first proof,based on ERA5 long-term trend data,that weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs(especially SPWs)could cause an increase in SSWs.展开更多
The “mainstream” climatology (MSC)—i.e. which includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) community—considers the present day massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the main c...The “mainstream” climatology (MSC)—i.e. which includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) community—considers the present day massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the main cause of the current global warming trend. The main inference from this stance is that the increase in temperature must occur after the release of greenhouse gases originating from the anthropic activities. However, no scientific evidence has been provided for this basic notion. Earth paleoclimatic records document the antecedence of temperature over CO<sub>2</sub> levels. For the past 65 Ma, the temperature parameter has controlled the subsequent increase in CO<sub>2</sub>. This includes the three rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients at 55 Ma, 34 Ma, and 23 Ma REF _Ref159913672 \r \h \* MERGEFORMAT [1]. The simple fact of their existence points to the potential for highly nonlinear responses in climate forcing. Whatever these shifts and transients are, CO<sub>2</sub> remains a second order parameter in their evolution through time. Confronted with the past, a suitable response must therefore be given to the unresolved question of whether the CO<sub>2</sub> trends precede the temperature trends in the current period, or not. The assertion that the current global warming is anthropogenic in origin implicitly presupposes a change of paradigm, with the consequence (the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> levels) that occurred in Earth’s past being positioned as the cause of the warming for its present day climatic evolution. The compulsory assumption regarding the antecedence of CO<sub>2</sub> levels over the temperature trends is associated with the haziness of the methodological framework—i.e. the paradigm—and tightens the research fields on the likely origins of global warming. The possible involvement of an “aberrant” natural event, hidden behind the massive release of greenhouse gases, has not been considered by the MSC.展开更多
Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence ...Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence of ionizing radiation emitted from the Sun mainly in the “rise” phase of solar activity. The ionizing radiation is positively charged particles with high energy. They penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere, creating increased content of ions serving as condensation nuclei. The condensation nuclei increase cloudiness in the lower atmosphere and lower the surface air temperature. When solar activity decreases as observed in the last 70 years, the reverse process occurs— cloud cover decreases, more solar electromagnetic radiation reaches the earth’s surface and increases the temperature. An additional argument for the presence of high-energy radiation that penetrates deeply into the Earth’s atmosphere and even reaches the Earth’s surface is the high statistically significant correlation between the fluxes of such radiation recorded by GOES series satellites in a geostationary orbit (36,000 km above the Earth’s surface) and the human mortality from deadliest diseases.展开更多
In this study, we investigated the variations in warming between Japanese cities for 1960-1989, and 1990-2019 using principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. The precipitation and sunshine hours exhib...In this study, we investigated the variations in warming between Japanese cities for 1960-1989, and 1990-2019 using principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. The precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited opposite tendencies in the PCA results. It was found that 1960M and 1990M had a correlation (r = 0.51). The 1960M and 1990M are the mean temperature anomalies in Japanese cities for 1960-1989 and 1990-2019, respectively. There was a strong correlation between temperature and precipitation (r = 0.62). There was an inverse correlation between 1960M and sunshine hours (r = −0.25), but a correlation between 1990M and sunshine hours (r = 0.11). Sunshine hours had less effect on the 1960M but more impact on the 1990M. The k-means clustering for 1960M and 1990M can be classified into four types: high 1960M and high 1990M, which indicates that global warming is progressing rapidly (Sapporo, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, Nagasaki), low 1960M and low 1990M, global warming is progressing slowly (Nemuro, Ishinomaki, Yamagata, Niigata, Fushiki, Nagano, Karuizawa, Mito, Suwa, Iida, Hamada, Miyazaki, Naha), low 1960M and high 1990M, global warming has accelerated since 1990 (Utsunomiya, Kofu, Okayama, Hiroshima), and normal 1960M and normal 1990M, the rate of warming is normal among the 38 cities (Asahikawa, Aomori, Akita, Kanazawa, Maebashi, Matsumoto, Yokohama, Gifu, Nagoya, Hamamatsu, Kochi, Kagoshima). Higher annual temperatures were correlated with higher annual precipitation according to the k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation. Two of the four categories consisted of places with high annual temperatures and high precipitation (Fushiki, Kanazawa, Kochi, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Naha, Ishigakijima), and places with low annual temperatures and low precipitation (Asahikawa, Nemuro, Sapporo, Karuizawa).展开更多
Changes in CO2 and temperature are correlated, but it is difficult to observe which is the cause and which is the effect. The release of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere depends on the atmospheric temper...Changes in CO2 and temperature are correlated, but it is difficult to observe which is the cause and which is the effect. The release of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere depends on the atmospheric temperature. However, examining the relationship between changes in CO2 caused by other phenomena and temperature is difficult. Studies of soil respiration (Rs) since the late 20th century have shown that CO2 emissions from soil respiration (Rs) are overwhelmingly greater than CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This is also noted in the IPCC carbon budget assessment. In this paper, the dependences of Rs on temperature, time, latitude, precipitation, seasons, etc., were investigated using the latest NASA database. The changes in temperature and Rs correlated well. There is also a good correlation between Rs and CO2 generation. Therefore, an increase in temperature results in an increase in CO2. On the other hand, there is no evidence other than model calculations that an increase in anthropogenic CO2 is mainly linked to a rise in temperature. The idea that global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2 production is still a hypothesis. For these reasons, the relationship between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 should be reconsidered based on physical evidence without preconceptions. .展开更多
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by sp...The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.展开更多
Passive-warming, open-top chambers(OTCs) are widely applied for studying the effects of future climate warming on coastal wetlands. In this study, a set of six OTCs were established at a Phragmites wetland located in ...Passive-warming, open-top chambers(OTCs) are widely applied for studying the effects of future climate warming on coastal wetlands. In this study, a set of six OTCs were established at a Phragmites wetland located in the Yellow River Delta of Dongying City, China. With data collected through online transmission and in-situ sensors, the attributes and patterns of realized OTCs warming are demonstrated.The authors also quantified the preliminary influence of experimental chamber warming on plant traits.OTCs produced an elevated average air temperature of 0.8°C(relative to controls) during the growing season(June to October) of 2018, and soil temperatures actually decreased by 0.54°C at a depth of 5 cm and 0.46°C at a depth of 30 cm in the OTCs. Variations in diel patterns of warming depend greatly on the heat sources of incoming radiation in the daytime versus soil heat flux at night. Warming effects were often larger during instantaneous analyses and influenced OTCs air temperatures from-2.5°C to 8.3°C dependent on various meteorological conditions at any given time, ranging from cooling influences from vertical heat exchange and vegetation to radiation-associated warming. Night-time temperature depressions in the OTCs were due to the low turbulence inside OTCs and changes in surface soilatmosphere heat transfer. Plant shoot density, basal diameter, and biomass of Phragmites decreased by23.2%, 6.3%, and 34.0%, respectively, under experimental warming versus controls, and plant height increased by 4.3%, reflecting less carbon allocation to stem structures as plants in the OTCs experienced simultaneous wind buffering. While these passive-warming OTCs created the desired warming effects both to the atmosphere and soils, pest damages on the plant leaves and lodging within the OTCs were extensive and serious, creating the need to consider control options for these chambers and the replicated OTCs studies underway in other Chinese Phragmites marshes(Panjin and Yancheng).展开更多
基金financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA23060301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41621001).
文摘Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175045).
文摘In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42107476,31901241)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2020M682600)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral International Exchange Fellowship Program(PC2021099)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2021JJ41075).
文摘Trees progress through various growth stages,each marked by specific responses and adaptation strate-gies to environmental conditions.Despite the importance of age-related growth responses on overall forest health and management policies,limited knowledge exists regarding age-related effects on dendroclimatic relationships in key subtropical tree species.In this study,we employed a den-drochronological method to examine the impact of rapid warming on growth dynamics and climatic sensitivity of young(40–60 years)and old(100–180 years)Pinus mas-soniana forests across six sites in central-southern China.The normalized log basal area increment of trees in both age groups increased significantly following rapid warming in 1984.Trees in young forests further showed a distinct growth decline during a prolonged severe drought(2004–2013),whereas those in old forests maintained growth increases.Tree growth was more strongly influenced by temperature than by moisture,particularly in old forests.Spring tem-peratures strongly and positively impacted the growth of old trees but had a weaker effect on young ones.Old forests had a significantly lower resistance to extreme drought but faster recovery compared to young forests.The“divergence problem”was more pronounced in younger forests due to their heightened sensitivity to warming-induced drought and heat stress.With ongoing warming,young forests also may initially experience a growth decline due to their heightened sensitivity to winter drought.Our findings underscore the importance of considering age-dependent changes in forest/tree growth response to warming in subtropical forest man-agement,particularly in the context of achieving“Carbon Peak&Carbon Neutrality”goals in China.
基金This work was supported by the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,China(2008085qc118)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U19A2021)+1 种基金the Major Science and Technology Special Project of Anhui Province,China(S202003a06020035)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production,China(JCIC-MCP).
文摘Global climate change is characterized by asymmetric warming,i.e.,greater temperature increases in winter,spring,and nighttime than in summer,autumn,and daytime.Field experiments were conducted using four wheat cultivars,namely‘Yangmai 18’(YM18),‘Sumai 188’(SM188),‘Yannong 19’(YN19),and‘Annong 0711’(AN0711),in the two growing seasons of 2019-2020 and 2020-2021,with passive night warming during different periods in the early growth stage.The treatments were night warming during the tillering-jointing(NW_(T-J)),jointing-booting(NWJ-B),and booting-anthesis(NWB-A)stages,with ambient temperature(NN)as the control.The effects of night warming during different stages on wheat yield formation were investigated by determining the characteristics of dry matter accumulation and translocation,as well as sucrose and starch accumulation in wheat grains.The wheat yields of all four cultivars were significantly higher in NW_(T-J)than in NN in the 2-year experiment.The yield increases of semi-winter cultivars YN19 and AN0711 were greater than those of spring cultivars YM18 and SM188.Treatment NW_(T-J)increased wheat yield mainly by increasing the 1,000-grain weight and the number of fertile spikelets,and it increased dry matter accumulation in various organs of wheat at the anthesis and maturity stages by increasing the growth rate at the vegetative growth stage.The flag leaf and spike showed the largest increases in dry matter accumulation.NW_(T-J)also increased the grain sucrose and starch contents in the early and middle grain-filling stages,promoting yield formation.Overall,night warming between the tillering and jointing stages increased the pre-anthesis growth rate,and thus,wheat dry matter production,which contributed to an increase in wheat yield.
文摘The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0101)the China Desert Meteorological Science Research Foundation(Sqj2022012)+3 种基金the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2023-JC-QN-0307)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361144712)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB40010300)the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,CAS(SKLLQG2022).
文摘As one of the regions most affected by global climate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced several ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Mountains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(Tmax6-8) variations from 1718 to2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed Tmax6-8.Over the past 300 years,the Tmax6-8reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal variabilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18 ℃/decade) after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The Tmax6-8variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that climate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mechanisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.
基金This study was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0101)the China Desert Meteorological Science Research Foundation(Sqj2022012)+3 种基金the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2023-JC-QN-0307)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361144712)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB40010300)the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,CAS(SKLLQG2022).
文摘As one of the regions most affected by global cli-mate warming,the Tianshan mountains has experienced sev-eral ecological crises,including retreating glaciers and water deficits.Climate warming in these mountains is considered mainly to be caused by increases in minimum temperatures and winter temperatures,while the influence of maximum temperatures is unclear.In this study,a 300-year tree-ring chronology developed from the Western Tianshan Moun-tains was used to reconstruct the summer(June-August)maximum temperature(T_(max6-8))variations from 1718 to 2017.The reconstruction explained 53.1% of the variance in the observed T_(max6-8).Over the past 300 years,the T_(max6-8)reconstruction showed clear interannual and decadal vari-abilities.There was a significant warming trend(0.18°C/decade)after the 1950s,which was close to the increasing rates of the minimum and mean temperatures.The increase in maximum temperature was also present over the whole Tianshan mountains and its impact on climate warming has increased.The T_(max6-8) variations in the Western Tianshan mountains were influenced by frequent volcanic eruptions combined with the influence of solar activity and the sum-mer North Atlantic Oscillation.This study reveals that cli-mate warming is significantly influenced by the increase in maximum temperatures and clarifies possible driving mech-anisms of temperature variations in the Western Tianshan mountains which should aid climate predictions.
基金carried out in the framework of the 1331 Project of Cultural Ecology Collaborative Innovation Center in Wutai Mountain (00000342)co-financed by Program for the Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi (2022J027)+1 种基金Applied Basic Research Project of Shanxi Province (202203021221225)Basic Research Project of Xinzhou Science and Technology Bureau (20230501)。
文摘Climate warming profoundly affects plant biodiversity, community productivity, and soil properties in alpine and subalpine grassland ecosystems. However, these effects are poorly understood across elevational gradients in subalpine meadow ecosystems. To reveal the elevational patterns of warming effects on plant biodiversity, community structure, productivity, and soil properties, we conducted a warming experiment using open-top chambers from August 2019 to August 2022 at high(2764 m a. s. l.), medium(2631 m a. s. l.), and low(2544 m a. s. l.) elevational gradients on a subalpine meadow slope of Mount Wutai, Northern China. Our results showed that three years of warming significantly increased topsoil temperature but significantly decreased topsoil moisture at all elevations(P<0.05), and the percentage of increasing temperature and decreasing moisture both gradually raised with elevation lifting. Warming-induced decreasing proportions of soil organic carbon(SOC, by 19.24%), and total nitrogen(TN, by 24.56%) were the greatest at high elevational gradients. Experimental warming did not affect topsoil C: N, p H, NO_(3)^(-)-N, or NH_(4)^(+)-N at the three elevational gradients. Warming significantly increased species richness(P<0.01) and Shannon-Weiner index(P<0.05) at low elevational gradients but significantly decreased belowground biomass(P<0.05) at a depth of 0–10 cm at three elevational gradients. Warming caused significant increases in the aboveground biomass in the three elevational plots. Warming significantly increased the aboveground biomass of graminoids in medium(by 92.47%) and low(by 98.25%) elevational gradients, that of sedges in high(by 72.44%) and medium(by 57.16%) elevational plots, and that of forbs in high(by 75.88%), medium(by 34.38%), and low(by 74.95%) elevational plots. Species richness had significant linear correlations with SOC, TN, and C: N(P<0.05), but significant nonlinear responses to soil temperature and soil moisture in the warmed treatment(P<0.05). The warmed aboveground biomass had a significant nonlinear response to soil temperature and significant linear responses to soil moisture(P<0.05). This study provided evidence that altitude is a factor in sensitivity to climate warming, and these different parameters(e.g., plant species richness, Shannon-Weiner index, soil temperature, soil moisture, SOC, and TN) can be used to measure this sensitivity.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 41875099)。
文摘Changes in the activities of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)at the end of 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are assessed by adopting 17 CMIP6 models and the weak-temperature-gradient assumption.Results show that the intraseasonal variations become more structured.The BSISO-related precipitation anomaly shows a larger zonal scale and propagates further northward.However,there is no broad agreement among models on the changes in the eastward and northward propagation speeds and the frequency of individual phases.In the western North Pacific(WNP),the BSISO precipitation variance is significantly increased,at 4.62%K^(−1),due to the significantly increased efficiency of vertical moisture transport per unit of BSISO apparent heating.The vertical velocity variance is significantly decreased,at−3.51%K^(−1),in the middle troposphere,due to the significantly increased mean-state static stability.Changes in the lower-level zonal wind variance are relatively complex,with a significant increase stretching from the northwestern to southeastern WNP,but the opposite in other regions.This is probably due to the combined impacts of the northeastward shift of the BSISO signals and the reduced BSISO vertical velocity variance under global warming.Changes in strong and normal BSISO events in the WNP are also compared.They show same-signed changes in precipitation and large-scale circulation anomalies but opposite changes in the vertical velocity anomalies.This is probably because the precipitation anomaly of strong(normal)events changes at a rate much larger(smaller)than that of the meanstate static stability,causing enhanced(reduced)vertical motion.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42276251,42211530033,and 41876212the Taishan Scholars Program.
文摘The ocean conditions beneath the ice cover play a key role in understanding the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions.An integrated high-frequency ice-ocean observation system,including Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter,Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Sensor,and Sea Ice Mass Balance Array(SIMBA),was deployed in the landfast ice region close to the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Antarctica.A sudden ocean warming of 0.14℃(p<0.01)was observed beneath early-frozen landfast ice,from(−1.60±0.03)℃during April 16-19 to(−1.46±0.07)℃during April 20-23,2021,which is the only significant warming event in the nearly 8-month records.The sudden ocean warming brought a double rise in oceanic heat flux,from(21.7±11.1)W/m^(2) during April 16-19 to(44.8±21.3)W/m^(2) during April 20-23,2021,which shifted the original growth phase at the ice bottom,leading to a 2 cm melting,as shown from SIMBA and borehole observations.Simultaneously,the slowdown of ice bottom freezing decreased salt rejection,and the daily trend of observed ocean salinity changed from+0.02 d^(-1) during April 16-19,2021 to+0.003 d^(-1) during April 20-23,2021.The potential reasons are increased air temperature due to the transit cyclones and the weakened vertical ocean mixing due to the tide phase transformation from semi-diurnal to diurnal.The high-frequency observations within the ice-ocean boundary layer enhance the comprehensive investigation of the ocean’s influence on ice evolution at a daily scale.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41976027)。
文摘The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.
基金funded by the NSFC(32371669)the Science and Technology Talent Project for Distinguished Young Scholars of Jilin Province(20240602009RC)+1 种基金the NSF of Jilin Province(20240101207JC)the Scientific Research Project of the Department of Education,Jilin Province(JJKH20230687KJ).
文摘Understanding how summer warming influences the parent and daughter shoot production in a perennial clonal grass is vital for comprehending the response of grassland productivity to global warming.Here,we conducted a simulated experiment using potted Leymus chinensis,to study the relationship between the photosynthetic activ-ity of parent shoots and the production of daughter shoots under a whole(90 days)summer warming scenario(+3°C).The results showed that the biomass of parents and buds decreased by 25.52%and 33.45%,respectively,under warming conditions.The reduction in parent shoot biomass due to warming directly resulted from decreased leaf area(18.03%),chlorophyll a(18.27%),chlorophyll b(29.21%)content,as well as a reduction in net photosynthetic rate(7.32%)and the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II(PSII)photochemistry(4.29%).The decline in daughter shoot biomass was linked to a decrease in daughter shoot number(33.33%)by warming.However,the number of belowground buds increased by 46.43%.The results indicated that long-term summer warming reduces biomass accumulation in parent shoot by increasing both limitation of stoma and non-stoma.Consequently,the parent shoot allocates relatively more biomass to the belowground organs to maintain the survival and growth of buds.Overall,buds,as a potential aboveground population,could remedy for the cur-rent loss of parent shoot density by increasing the number of future daughter shoots if summer warming subsides.
基金the National Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.2022JJ40471)the Research Foundation of the Education Bureau of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.22B0345)the Key Laboratory of Geospace Envi-ronment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,University of Science&Technology of China(Grant No.GE2023-01).
文摘Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.
基金supported by the National Key RandD Program of China(2022YFF0503703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(through grant42127805)。
文摘Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5),for the first time,we have confirmed close links among Sudden Stratospheric Warmings(SSWs)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),the polar vortices,and stratospheric Planetary Waves(PWs)by analyzing and comparing their trends.Interestingly,within overall increasing trends,the duration and strength of SSWs exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after the winter of 2002,respectively.To reveal possible physical mechanisms driving these trends,we analyzed the long-term trends of the winter(from December to February)polar vortices and of stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1.Notably,our results show that in all three time periods(the entire period of 41winters,1980 to 2020,and the two subperiods—1980-2002 and 2002-2020)enhancing SSWs were always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices and strengthening polar PWs like Stationary Planetary Waves(SPWs)and 16-day waves,and vice versa.This is the first proof,based on ERA5 long-term trend data,that weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs(especially SPWs)could cause an increase in SSWs.
文摘The “mainstream” climatology (MSC)—i.e. which includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) community—considers the present day massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the main cause of the current global warming trend. The main inference from this stance is that the increase in temperature must occur after the release of greenhouse gases originating from the anthropic activities. However, no scientific evidence has been provided for this basic notion. Earth paleoclimatic records document the antecedence of temperature over CO<sub>2</sub> levels. For the past 65 Ma, the temperature parameter has controlled the subsequent increase in CO<sub>2</sub>. This includes the three rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients at 55 Ma, 34 Ma, and 23 Ma REF _Ref159913672 \r \h \* MERGEFORMAT [1]. The simple fact of their existence points to the potential for highly nonlinear responses in climate forcing. Whatever these shifts and transients are, CO<sub>2</sub> remains a second order parameter in their evolution through time. Confronted with the past, a suitable response must therefore be given to the unresolved question of whether the CO<sub>2</sub> trends precede the temperature trends in the current period, or not. The assertion that the current global warming is anthropogenic in origin implicitly presupposes a change of paradigm, with the consequence (the increase in CO<sub>2</sub> levels) that occurred in Earth’s past being positioned as the cause of the warming for its present day climatic evolution. The compulsory assumption regarding the antecedence of CO<sub>2</sub> levels over the temperature trends is associated with the haziness of the methodological framework—i.e. the paradigm—and tightens the research fields on the likely origins of global warming. The possible involvement of an “aberrant” natural event, hidden behind the massive release of greenhouse gases, has not been considered by the MSC.
文摘Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence of ionizing radiation emitted from the Sun mainly in the “rise” phase of solar activity. The ionizing radiation is positively charged particles with high energy. They penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere, creating increased content of ions serving as condensation nuclei. The condensation nuclei increase cloudiness in the lower atmosphere and lower the surface air temperature. When solar activity decreases as observed in the last 70 years, the reverse process occurs— cloud cover decreases, more solar electromagnetic radiation reaches the earth’s surface and increases the temperature. An additional argument for the presence of high-energy radiation that penetrates deeply into the Earth’s atmosphere and even reaches the Earth’s surface is the high statistically significant correlation between the fluxes of such radiation recorded by GOES series satellites in a geostationary orbit (36,000 km above the Earth’s surface) and the human mortality from deadliest diseases.
文摘In this study, we investigated the variations in warming between Japanese cities for 1960-1989, and 1990-2019 using principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. The precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited opposite tendencies in the PCA results. It was found that 1960M and 1990M had a correlation (r = 0.51). The 1960M and 1990M are the mean temperature anomalies in Japanese cities for 1960-1989 and 1990-2019, respectively. There was a strong correlation between temperature and precipitation (r = 0.62). There was an inverse correlation between 1960M and sunshine hours (r = −0.25), but a correlation between 1990M and sunshine hours (r = 0.11). Sunshine hours had less effect on the 1960M but more impact on the 1990M. The k-means clustering for 1960M and 1990M can be classified into four types: high 1960M and high 1990M, which indicates that global warming is progressing rapidly (Sapporo, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, Nagasaki), low 1960M and low 1990M, global warming is progressing slowly (Nemuro, Ishinomaki, Yamagata, Niigata, Fushiki, Nagano, Karuizawa, Mito, Suwa, Iida, Hamada, Miyazaki, Naha), low 1960M and high 1990M, global warming has accelerated since 1990 (Utsunomiya, Kofu, Okayama, Hiroshima), and normal 1960M and normal 1990M, the rate of warming is normal among the 38 cities (Asahikawa, Aomori, Akita, Kanazawa, Maebashi, Matsumoto, Yokohama, Gifu, Nagoya, Hamamatsu, Kochi, Kagoshima). Higher annual temperatures were correlated with higher annual precipitation according to the k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation. Two of the four categories consisted of places with high annual temperatures and high precipitation (Fushiki, Kanazawa, Kochi, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Naha, Ishigakijima), and places with low annual temperatures and low precipitation (Asahikawa, Nemuro, Sapporo, Karuizawa).
文摘Changes in CO2 and temperature are correlated, but it is difficult to observe which is the cause and which is the effect. The release of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere depends on the atmospheric temperature. However, examining the relationship between changes in CO2 caused by other phenomena and temperature is difficult. Studies of soil respiration (Rs) since the late 20th century have shown that CO2 emissions from soil respiration (Rs) are overwhelmingly greater than CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This is also noted in the IPCC carbon budget assessment. In this paper, the dependences of Rs on temperature, time, latitude, precipitation, seasons, etc., were investigated using the latest NASA database. The changes in temperature and Rs correlated well. There is also a good correlation between Rs and CO2 generation. Therefore, an increase in temperature results in an increase in CO2. On the other hand, there is no evidence other than model calculations that an increase in anthropogenic CO2 is mainly linked to a rise in temperature. The idea that global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2 production is still a hypothesis. For these reasons, the relationship between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 should be reconsidered based on physical evidence without preconceptions. .
基金Under the auspices of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(No.2019QZKK020104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571062,42101122)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2020TS100)the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2023-JC-YB-259)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2017M610622)。
文摘The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.
基金jointly funded by the Marine S&T Fund of Shandong Province for the Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)(2022QNLM 040003-3)the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFE0109600)+3 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (U22A20558, 41240022, 41876057, 40872167, 41602143)China Geological Survey (1212010611402, GZH201200503, and DD20160144)by in-kind support from the Land Carbon ProgramLand Change Science R&D Program of the United States Geological Survey。
文摘Passive-warming, open-top chambers(OTCs) are widely applied for studying the effects of future climate warming on coastal wetlands. In this study, a set of six OTCs were established at a Phragmites wetland located in the Yellow River Delta of Dongying City, China. With data collected through online transmission and in-situ sensors, the attributes and patterns of realized OTCs warming are demonstrated.The authors also quantified the preliminary influence of experimental chamber warming on plant traits.OTCs produced an elevated average air temperature of 0.8°C(relative to controls) during the growing season(June to October) of 2018, and soil temperatures actually decreased by 0.54°C at a depth of 5 cm and 0.46°C at a depth of 30 cm in the OTCs. Variations in diel patterns of warming depend greatly on the heat sources of incoming radiation in the daytime versus soil heat flux at night. Warming effects were often larger during instantaneous analyses and influenced OTCs air temperatures from-2.5°C to 8.3°C dependent on various meteorological conditions at any given time, ranging from cooling influences from vertical heat exchange and vegetation to radiation-associated warming. Night-time temperature depressions in the OTCs were due to the low turbulence inside OTCs and changes in surface soilatmosphere heat transfer. Plant shoot density, basal diameter, and biomass of Phragmites decreased by23.2%, 6.3%, and 34.0%, respectively, under experimental warming versus controls, and plant height increased by 4.3%, reflecting less carbon allocation to stem structures as plants in the OTCs experienced simultaneous wind buffering. While these passive-warming OTCs created the desired warming effects both to the atmosphere and soils, pest damages on the plant leaves and lodging within the OTCs were extensive and serious, creating the need to consider control options for these chambers and the replicated OTCs studies underway in other Chinese Phragmites marshes(Panjin and Yancheng).
