Knowing crop water uptake each day is useful for developing irrigation scheduling. Many technologies have been used to estimate daily crop water use. Sap flow is one of the technologies that measure water flow through...Knowing crop water uptake each day is useful for developing irrigation scheduling. Many technologies have been used to estimate daily crop water use. Sap flow is one of the technologies that measure water flow through the stem of a plant and estimate daily crop water uptake. Sap flow sensor is an effective direct method for measuring crop water use, but it is relatively expensive and requires frequent maintenance. Therefore, alternative methods, such as evapotranspiration based on FAO 56 Penman-Monteith equation and other weather parameters were evaluated to find the correlation with sap flow. In this study, Dynamax Flow 32-1K sap flow system was utilized to monitor potato water use. The results show sap flow has a strong correlation with evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.34, IA = 0.89, MBE = -0.83), solar radiation (RMSE = 2.25, IA = 0.72, MBE = -1.80), but not with air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and vapor pressure. It is worth noting that the R<sup>2</sup> between sap flow and relative humidity was 0.55. This study has concluded that daily evapotranspiration and solar radiation can be used as alternative methods to estimate sap flow.展开更多
Surface weather parameters detain high socioeconomic impact and strategic insights for all users,in all domains(aviation,marine traffic,agriculture,etc.).However,those parameters were mainly predicted by using determi...Surface weather parameters detain high socioeconomic impact and strategic insights for all users,in all domains(aviation,marine traffic,agriculture,etc.).However,those parameters were mainly predicted by using deterministic numerical weather prediction(NWP)models that include a wealth of uncertainties.The purpose of this study is to contribute in improving low-cost computationally ensemble forecasting of those parameters using analog ensemble method(AnEn)and comparing it to the operational mesoscale deterministic model(AROME)all over the main airports of Morocco using 5-yr period(2016-2020)of hourly datasets.An analog for a given station and forecast lead time is a past prediction,from the same model that has similar values for selected predictors of the current model forecast.Best analogs verifying observations form AnEn ensemble members.To picture seasonal dependency,two configurations were set;a basic configuration where analogs may come from any past date and a restricted configuration where analogs should belong to a day window around the target forecast.Furthermore,a new predictors weighting strategy is developed by using machine learning techniques(linear regression,random forest,and XGBoost).This approach is expected to accomplish both the selection of relevant predictors as well as finding their optimal weights,and hence preserve physical meaning and correlations of the used weather variables.Results analysis shows that the developed AnEn system exhibits a good statistical consistency and it significantly improves the deterministic forecast performance temporally and spatially by up to 50%for Bias(mean error)and 30%for RMSE(root-mean-square error)at most of the airports.This improvement varies as a function of lead times and seasons compared to the AROME model and to the basic AnEn configuration.The results show also that AnEn performance is geographically dependent where a slight worsening is found for some airports.展开更多
This study deals with the climatic parameters and the climatic differences in Elazig and its close regions (cities of Malatya, Tunceli, Bing?l, Erzincan). Data on mean monthly temperature, daily maximum-minimum temper...This study deals with the climatic parameters and the climatic differences in Elazig and its close regions (cities of Malatya, Tunceli, Bing?l, Erzincan). Data on mean monthly temperature, daily maximum-minimum temperature, rela-tive humidity, pressure, wind speed, rainfall, solar radiation and sunshine duration were analyzed and modeled for 10-year period, from 1994 to 2003. Malatya city was the hottest area whole period, while the Erzincan city was the coldest area. Maximum temperatures were at highest values in Tunceli. Minimum temperatures reached the warmest values in the Malatya. Erzincan city was the most humid area almost throughout the period while Malatya was the least humid area. Wind speed reached the highest values in the Elazig and the lowest values in the Tunceli. Pressure reached the highest values in the Malatya and the lowest values in the Erzincan. Direct solar radiation reached the highest val-ues in the Tunceli and the lowest values in the Erzincan. Sunshine duration reached the highest values in the Malatya and the lowest values in the Erzincan. A regression analysis was carried out by using the linear regression technique to model the climatic parameters. The models developed can be used in any study related to climatic and its effect on the environment and energy. The models developed in this study can be used for future predictions of the climatic parame-ters and analysing the environmental and energy related issues in Elazig and its close regions (cities of Malatya, Tun-celi, Bing?l, Erzincan).展开更多
云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利...云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利用耦合BTC降水相态诊断方案(简称“BTC方案”)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,对本次凝冻天气的降水相态、冻雨发生区域与冻雨量进行数值模拟。结果表明:横贯云贵高原和南岭地区的准静止锋导致的锋前“冷—暖—冷”的温度垂直结构有利于多相态降水的形成。耦合BTC方案的WRF模式可模拟出不同降水相态落区的空间分布,其模拟冻雨落区时空分布与观测基本一致,但冰粒的空报率非常高。分析WRF模式模拟的多相态降水时温度、相对湿度和水成物的垂直分布特征,云内水成物初始相态为液态,在高空逆温层存在的前提下,次冻结层中冰核活化温度是区分冻雨和冰粒的临界指标且具有明确的物理机制。利用次冻结层中的冰核活化温度来代替BTC方案中有关冻雨和冰粒的判据后,冻雨落区预报准确率较BTC方案提高了13%,表明直接利用次冻结层的冰核活化温度判断冻雨可行。展开更多
The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MM4) in which the computations of the turbulentexchange coeffcient in the boundary layer and surface fluxes are improved, is used to study the influences ofboundary la...The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MM4) in which the computations of the turbulentexchange coeffcient in the boundary layer and surface fluxes are improved, is used to study the influences ofboundary layer parameterization schemes on the predictive results of the mesoscale model. Seven differentexperiment schemes (including the original MM4 model) designed in this paper are tested by theobservational data of several heavy rain cases so as to find an improved boundary layer parameterizationscheme in the mesoscale meteorological model. The results show that all the seven different boundary layerparameterization schemes have some innuences on the forecasts of precipitation intensity, distribution ofrain area. vertical velocity. vorticity and divergence fields, and the improved schemes in this paper can improve the precipitation forecast.展开更多
After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve we...After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.展开更多
A set of microphysics equations is scaled based on the convective length and velocity scales. Comparisons are made among the dynamical transport and various microphysical processes. From the scaling analysis, it becom...A set of microphysics equations is scaled based on the convective length and velocity scales. Comparisons are made among the dynamical transport and various microphysical processes. From the scaling analysis, it becomes apparent which parameterized microphysical processes present off-scaled influences in the integration of the set of microphysics equations. The variabilities of the parameterized microphysical processes are also studied using the approach of a controlled parameter space. Given macroscopic dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in different regions of convective storms, it is possible to analyze and compare vertical profiles of these processes. Bulk diabatic heating profiles for a cumulus convective updraft and downdraft are also derived from this analysis. From the two different angles, the scale analysis and the controlled-parameter space approach can both provide an insight into and an understanding of microphysics parameterizations.展开更多
The tea crop provides income and employment to rural populations in many countries. In Kenya, tea, which is the leading export commodity crop, is grown in highlands east and west of the Rift Valley at altitudes rangin...The tea crop provides income and employment to rural populations in many countries. In Kenya, tea, which is the leading export commodity crop, is grown in highlands east and west of the Rift Valley at altitudes ranging from 1300 m to 2700 m above mean sea level. Variable responses of tea genotypes to different environments have been demonstrated. This affects the growth, productivity, and quality of tea. However, most tea husbandry practices are uniform across tea growing regions leading to variations in yields and quality in the different environments. Understanding causes of variations in tea growth parameters and yields to varying environments is vital to optimizing husbandry practices for maximization of productivity. The responses in growth and yield parameters of clonal tea to locations of production and their contribution to yields were compared. A genotype × environment trial was conducted in three sites (Kangaita, Timbilil and Kipkebe). At each site, a trial comprising 20 cultivars was laid in a randomized complete design replicated 3 times. Yields, yield components and climatic data were collected then subjected to analysis of variance and regression analysis. There were significant (p ≤ 0.05) yield variations between clones and locations. Yields ranged from 5162 kg mt/ha on clone TRFK 303/577 at Kipkebe to 935 kg mt/ha/year on clone TRFK 7/3 in Kangaita, surpassing the maximum variation possible postulated in earlier studies. The responses of the tea yield components to weather parameters varied with genotypes and environments. Shoot growth rates in Timbilil (r = 0.476)) and shoot density (Kangaita (r = 0.652) significantly (p ≤ 0.05)) correlated with yields. Yield components and weather parameters contribution to the total yield also varied with locations. The variations demonstrated that not all yield components can be used universally as yield indicators for clonal selection in different locations. For optimal production, selected tea clones should therefore be tested before adoption for commercial planting in other locations.展开更多
该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染...该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程(PM10浓度>150μg/m3)关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利(或不利)于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季"静稳型"气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM10及可吸入颗粒物指数(API)对2008年7—8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。展开更多
文摘Knowing crop water uptake each day is useful for developing irrigation scheduling. Many technologies have been used to estimate daily crop water use. Sap flow is one of the technologies that measure water flow through the stem of a plant and estimate daily crop water uptake. Sap flow sensor is an effective direct method for measuring crop water use, but it is relatively expensive and requires frequent maintenance. Therefore, alternative methods, such as evapotranspiration based on FAO 56 Penman-Monteith equation and other weather parameters were evaluated to find the correlation with sap flow. In this study, Dynamax Flow 32-1K sap flow system was utilized to monitor potato water use. The results show sap flow has a strong correlation with evapotranspiration (RMSE = 1.34, IA = 0.89, MBE = -0.83), solar radiation (RMSE = 2.25, IA = 0.72, MBE = -1.80), but not with air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and vapor pressure. It is worth noting that the R<sup>2</sup> between sap flow and relative humidity was 0.55. This study has concluded that daily evapotranspiration and solar radiation can be used as alternative methods to estimate sap flow.
文摘Surface weather parameters detain high socioeconomic impact and strategic insights for all users,in all domains(aviation,marine traffic,agriculture,etc.).However,those parameters were mainly predicted by using deterministic numerical weather prediction(NWP)models that include a wealth of uncertainties.The purpose of this study is to contribute in improving low-cost computationally ensemble forecasting of those parameters using analog ensemble method(AnEn)and comparing it to the operational mesoscale deterministic model(AROME)all over the main airports of Morocco using 5-yr period(2016-2020)of hourly datasets.An analog for a given station and forecast lead time is a past prediction,from the same model that has similar values for selected predictors of the current model forecast.Best analogs verifying observations form AnEn ensemble members.To picture seasonal dependency,two configurations were set;a basic configuration where analogs may come from any past date and a restricted configuration where analogs should belong to a day window around the target forecast.Furthermore,a new predictors weighting strategy is developed by using machine learning techniques(linear regression,random forest,and XGBoost).This approach is expected to accomplish both the selection of relevant predictors as well as finding their optimal weights,and hence preserve physical meaning and correlations of the used weather variables.Results analysis shows that the developed AnEn system exhibits a good statistical consistency and it significantly improves the deterministic forecast performance temporally and spatially by up to 50%for Bias(mean error)and 30%for RMSE(root-mean-square error)at most of the airports.This improvement varies as a function of lead times and seasons compared to the AROME model and to the basic AnEn configuration.The results show also that AnEn performance is geographically dependent where a slight worsening is found for some airports.
文摘This study deals with the climatic parameters and the climatic differences in Elazig and its close regions (cities of Malatya, Tunceli, Bing?l, Erzincan). Data on mean monthly temperature, daily maximum-minimum temperature, rela-tive humidity, pressure, wind speed, rainfall, solar radiation and sunshine duration were analyzed and modeled for 10-year period, from 1994 to 2003. Malatya city was the hottest area whole period, while the Erzincan city was the coldest area. Maximum temperatures were at highest values in Tunceli. Minimum temperatures reached the warmest values in the Malatya. Erzincan city was the most humid area almost throughout the period while Malatya was the least humid area. Wind speed reached the highest values in the Elazig and the lowest values in the Tunceli. Pressure reached the highest values in the Malatya and the lowest values in the Erzincan. Direct solar radiation reached the highest val-ues in the Tunceli and the lowest values in the Erzincan. Sunshine duration reached the highest values in the Malatya and the lowest values in the Erzincan. A regression analysis was carried out by using the linear regression technique to model the climatic parameters. The models developed can be used in any study related to climatic and its effect on the environment and energy. The models developed in this study can be used for future predictions of the climatic parame-ters and analysing the environmental and energy related issues in Elazig and its close regions (cities of Malatya, Tun-celi, Bing?l, Erzincan).
文摘云贵—华南准静止锋使其以北地区成为研究冬季雨雪过渡区内不同降水相态的理想平台。通过对2018年1月25—27日南方凝冻天气过程中天气学和云微物理参数的分析,定性探讨了次冻结层的温度与冰核活化温度对不同降水相态形成的影响,进而利用耦合BTC降水相态诊断方案(简称“BTC方案”)的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,对本次凝冻天气的降水相态、冻雨发生区域与冻雨量进行数值模拟。结果表明:横贯云贵高原和南岭地区的准静止锋导致的锋前“冷—暖—冷”的温度垂直结构有利于多相态降水的形成。耦合BTC方案的WRF模式可模拟出不同降水相态落区的空间分布,其模拟冻雨落区时空分布与观测基本一致,但冰粒的空报率非常高。分析WRF模式模拟的多相态降水时温度、相对湿度和水成物的垂直分布特征,云内水成物初始相态为液态,在高空逆温层存在的前提下,次冻结层中冰核活化温度是区分冻雨和冰粒的临界指标且具有明确的物理机制。利用次冻结层中的冰核活化温度来代替BTC方案中有关冻雨和冰粒的判据后,冻雨落区预报准确率较BTC方案提高了13%,表明直接利用次冻结层的冰核活化温度判断冻雨可行。
文摘The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MM4) in which the computations of the turbulentexchange coeffcient in the boundary layer and surface fluxes are improved, is used to study the influences ofboundary layer parameterization schemes on the predictive results of the mesoscale model. Seven differentexperiment schemes (including the original MM4 model) designed in this paper are tested by theobservational data of several heavy rain cases so as to find an improved boundary layer parameterizationscheme in the mesoscale meteorological model. The results show that all the seven different boundary layerparameterization schemes have some innuences on the forecasts of precipitation intensity, distribution ofrain area. vertical velocity. vorticity and divergence fields, and the improved schemes in this paper can improve the precipitation forecast.
基金supported by the NOAA (Grant Nos. NA16AOR4320115 and NA11OAR4320072)NSF (Grant No. AGS-1341878)
文摘After decades of research and development, the WSR-88 D(NEXRAD) network in the United States was upgraded with dual-polarization capability, providing polarimetric radar data(PRD) that have the potential to improve weather observations,quantification, forecasting, and warnings. The weather radar networks in China and other countries are also being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Now, with radar polarimetry technology having matured, and PRD available both nationally and globally, it is important to understand the current status and future challenges and opportunities. The potential impact of PRD has been limited by their oftentimes subjective and empirical use. More importantly, the community has not begun to regularly derive from PRD the state parameters, such as water mixing ratios and number concentrations, used in numerical weather prediction(NWP) models.In this review, we summarize the current status of weather radar polarimetry, discuss the issues and limitations of PRD usage, and explore potential approaches to more efficiently use PRD for quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting based on statistical retrieval with physical constraints where prior information is used and observation error is included. This approach aligns the observation-based retrievals favored by the radar meteorology community with the model-based analysis of the NWP community. We also examine the challenges and opportunities of polarimetric phased array radar research and development for future weather observation.
基金Acknowledgments. Thanks to Dr. Alexander MacDonald of NOAA/FSL for his support throughout this study, and to Professors William Cotton. Roger Pielke. Wayne Schubert of Colorado State University, and to Dr. Fanyou Kong of University of Oklahoma and Mr. Hu
文摘A set of microphysics equations is scaled based on the convective length and velocity scales. Comparisons are made among the dynamical transport and various microphysical processes. From the scaling analysis, it becomes apparent which parameterized microphysical processes present off-scaled influences in the integration of the set of microphysics equations. The variabilities of the parameterized microphysical processes are also studied using the approach of a controlled parameter space. Given macroscopic dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in different regions of convective storms, it is possible to analyze and compare vertical profiles of these processes. Bulk diabatic heating profiles for a cumulus convective updraft and downdraft are also derived from this analysis. From the two different angles, the scale analysis and the controlled-parameter space approach can both provide an insight into and an understanding of microphysics parameterizations.
文摘The tea crop provides income and employment to rural populations in many countries. In Kenya, tea, which is the leading export commodity crop, is grown in highlands east and west of the Rift Valley at altitudes ranging from 1300 m to 2700 m above mean sea level. Variable responses of tea genotypes to different environments have been demonstrated. This affects the growth, productivity, and quality of tea. However, most tea husbandry practices are uniform across tea growing regions leading to variations in yields and quality in the different environments. Understanding causes of variations in tea growth parameters and yields to varying environments is vital to optimizing husbandry practices for maximization of productivity. The responses in growth and yield parameters of clonal tea to locations of production and their contribution to yields were compared. A genotype × environment trial was conducted in three sites (Kangaita, Timbilil and Kipkebe). At each site, a trial comprising 20 cultivars was laid in a randomized complete design replicated 3 times. Yields, yield components and climatic data were collected then subjected to analysis of variance and regression analysis. There were significant (p ≤ 0.05) yield variations between clones and locations. Yields ranged from 5162 kg mt/ha on clone TRFK 303/577 at Kipkebe to 935 kg mt/ha/year on clone TRFK 7/3 in Kangaita, surpassing the maximum variation possible postulated in earlier studies. The responses of the tea yield components to weather parameters varied with genotypes and environments. Shoot growth rates in Timbilil (r = 0.476)) and shoot density (Kangaita (r = 0.652) significantly (p ≤ 0.05)) correlated with yields. Yield components and weather parameters contribution to the total yield also varied with locations. The variations demonstrated that not all yield components can be used universally as yield indicators for clonal selection in different locations. For optimal production, selected tea clones should therefore be tested before adoption for commercial planting in other locations.
文摘该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程(PM10浓度>150μg/m3)关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利(或不利)于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季"静稳型"气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM10及可吸入颗粒物指数(API)对2008年7—8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。
