The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability...The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20<sup>th</sup> century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.展开更多
This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols （e.g., black carbon and sulfate） over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon （WAM） period （June-July-Aug...This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols （e.g., black carbon and sulfate） over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon （WAM） period （June-July-August）. We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing （direct and indirect）. Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng （BH）, Tripoli and Cotton （TC） and Liu and Daum （R6） schemes] in RegCM4.4.1, besides the default model＇s auto-conversion scheme （Kessler）. Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in RegCM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably （ranging from -5 to -25 W m-2）.展开更多
The recent West African Monsoon (WAM) wet season (May to October) rainfall’s interannual variability has been examined with emphasis on the rainfall zones of Guinea Coast (GC), Western Sudano Sahel (WSS) and Eastern ...The recent West African Monsoon (WAM) wet season (May to October) rainfall’s interannual variability has been examined with emphasis on the rainfall zones of Guinea Coast (GC), Western Sudano Sahel (WSS) and Eastern Sudano Sahel (ESS) in wet and dry years. Rainfall observations from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and atmospheric circulation fields from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were evaluated from 1979 to 2014. The objectives are to evaluate the trends across the zones and their linear relationship with the identified oceanic pulsations, as well as examine the evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the wet and dry years during the wet season months. The results show remarkable variability across the rainfall zones. The areal averaged rainfall anomalies show significant correlation values of -0.2 with Ocean Nino Index (ONI) only on WSS and ESS respectively, whereas with South Atlantic Ocean Dipole Index (SAODI) it shows significant correlation value of 0.3 only on GC, at 95% Confidence Level from a t-test. The analysis of trends in spatial and temporal patterns of the atmospheric circulation fields has extensively presented attributes associated with the wet seasonal rainfall anomalies in the wet and dry years. FGOALS-s2 model showed an outstanding simulation of the spatial and temporal patterns of these attributes, with the discrepancies noted, hence presenting itself as a viable tool in the prediction of seasonal rainfall extremes over West Africa.展开更多
Our paper assessed the improvement performance of the reanalysis(ERA5)compared to ERAI(ERA-Interim)both from the ECMWF(European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast)in representing the WAM(West African Monsoon)dyn...Our paper assessed the improvement performance of the reanalysis(ERA5)compared to ERAI(ERA-Interim)both from the ECMWF(European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast)in representing the WAM(West African Monsoon)dynamic.Our aim is to evaluate the reliability of ERA5 to deliver better climate services than ERAI in the West African Sahel region.Two complementary observational databases namely the CRU(Climate Research Unit)and the GPCC(Global Precipitation Climatology Center)data are used to evaluate precipitation and temperature representation by the two reanalysis.Otherwise,the representation of some major features of the WAM system,such as the SHL(Saharan Heat Low),the AEJ/TEJ(African and Tropical Easterly Jets)was assessed using the two reanalysis data.The obtained results show a better representation of the seasonal accumulated precipitation and average temperature by ERA5 compared to ERAI with higher spatial correlation and lower bias relative to the observations.Furthermore,ERAI appears to be rainier than ERA5 but ERA5 produces more heavy rainfall days.During the period of intense monsoon,the frequency of the SHL is higher for ERAI which would favor intensification of monsoon inflow and depth.The lower SHL frequency observed in the ERA5 could explain the observed weakening intensity of AEJ which is favorable for moist conditions over the Sahel.These findings confirm the progress made by ERA5 compared to ERAI in representing the WAM dynamic and demonstrate its reliability for delivering better climate services over the West African Sahel.展开更多
Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature a...Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of RegCM4 coupled with the new CLM4.5 Land</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">surface scheme and the standard one named BATS in order to find the best configuration of RegCM4 over West African. This study could improve our understanding of the sensitivity of land surface model in West Africa climate simulation, and provide relevant information to RegCM4 users. The results show fairly realistic restitution of West Africa’s climatology and indicate correlations of 0.60 to 0.82 between the simulated fields (BATS and CLM4.5) for precipitation. The substitution of BATS surface scheme by CLM4.5 in the model configuration, leads mainly to an improvement of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean, however, the impact is not sufficiently noticeable over the continent. While the CLM4.5 experiment restores the seasonal cycles and spatial distribution, the biases increase for precipitation and temperature. Positive biases already existing with BATS are amplified over some sub-regions. This study concludes that temporal localization (seasonal effect), spatial distribution (grid points) and magnitude of precipitation and temperature (bias) are not simultaneously improved by CLM4.5. The introduction of the new land surface scheme CLM4.5, therefore, leads to a performance of the same order as that of BATS, albeit with a more detailed formulation.展开更多
Along the littoral shelf of northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG), a minor dry season of the rainfall regime is concomitantly observed with the occurrence of a major coastal upwelling in July-August-September (JAS...Along the littoral shelf of northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG), a minor dry season of the rainfall regime is concomitantly observed with the occurrence of a major coastal upwelling in July-August-September (JAS). It was then supposed that this upwelling drives that minor dry season. But no previous studies have tried to understand this minor dry season and, this study is the first focusing on this question. The investigations undertaken to explain this dry season on the Ivorian littoral shelf with the ERA-Interim data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts over the 1980-2016 period have shown that the minor dry season is driven by the Northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during this period and, enhanced by the occurrence of the major coastal upwelling of the northern GG at the same time. These two phenomena interact as follow: i) the ITCZ is located in JAS far in the north cutting off convective processes along the coast, ii) the air on the coastal region is poor in humidity, iii) the air temperature on the bordering region of the GG is cooled by the coastal upwelling to value less than 26°C and not favorable for providing convection.展开更多
This study examines the inter-annual variability of rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"&g...This study examines the inter-annual variability of rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SLP) over west Africa based on analysis of the Global Precipitation</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Climatology Project (GPCP) and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis respectively. An interconnection is found in this region, between Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly (over Azores and St. Helena High) and monthly mean precipitation during summer (June to September: JJAS). We also found that over northern Senegal (15</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N;17</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">13</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W) the SLP to the north is strong;the wind converges at 200</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hPa corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) the rotational wind 700</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hPa (corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) coming from the north-east is negative. In this region, the precipitation is related to the SLP to the north with the opposite sign. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of SLP is also presented, including the mean spectrum of precipitation and pressures to the north (15</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N and 50</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">25</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W) and south (40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">10</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S and 40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">E). The dominant EOF of Sea Level Pressures north and south of the Atlantic Ocean for GPCP represents about 62.2% and 69.4% of the variance, respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the north account for 24.0% and 6.5% respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the south represent 12.5% and 8.9% respectively. Wet years in the north of Senegal were associated with anomalous low-pressure areas over the north Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the dry years which exhibited an anomalous high-pressure area in the same region. On the other hand, over the South Atlantic, an opposition is noted. The wavelet analysis method is applied to the SLP showings to the north, south and precipitation in our study area. The indices prove to be very consistent, especially during intervals of high variance.展开更多
文摘The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20<sup>th</sup> century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.
文摘This study assesses the direct and indirect effects of natural and anthropogenic aerosols （e.g., black carbon and sulfate） over West and Central Africa during the West African monsoon （WAM） period （June-July-August）. We investigate the impacts of aerosols on the amount of cloudiness, the influences on the precipitation efficiency of clouds, and the associated radiative forcing （direct and indirect）. Our study includes the implementation of three new formulations of auto-conversion parameterization [namely, the Beheng （BH）, Tripoli and Cotton （TC） and Liu and Daum （R6） schemes] in RegCM4.4.1, besides the default model＇s auto-conversion scheme （Kessler）. Among the new schemes, BH reduces the precipitation wet bias by more than 50% over West Africa and achieves a bias reduction of around 25% over Central Africa. Results from detailed sensitivity experiments suggest a significant path forward in terms of addressing the long-standing issue of the characteristic wet bias in RegCM. In terms of aerosol-induced radiative forcing, the impact of the various schemes is found to vary considerably （ranging from -5 to -25 W m-2）.
文摘The recent West African Monsoon (WAM) wet season (May to October) rainfall’s interannual variability has been examined with emphasis on the rainfall zones of Guinea Coast (GC), Western Sudano Sahel (WSS) and Eastern Sudano Sahel (ESS) in wet and dry years. Rainfall observations from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and atmospheric circulation fields from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were evaluated from 1979 to 2014. The objectives are to evaluate the trends across the zones and their linear relationship with the identified oceanic pulsations, as well as examine the evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the wet and dry years during the wet season months. The results show remarkable variability across the rainfall zones. The areal averaged rainfall anomalies show significant correlation values of -0.2 with Ocean Nino Index (ONI) only on WSS and ESS respectively, whereas with South Atlantic Ocean Dipole Index (SAODI) it shows significant correlation value of 0.3 only on GC, at 95% Confidence Level from a t-test. The analysis of trends in spatial and temporal patterns of the atmospheric circulation fields has extensively presented attributes associated with the wet seasonal rainfall anomalies in the wet and dry years. FGOALS-s2 model showed an outstanding simulation of the spatial and temporal patterns of these attributes, with the discrepancies noted, hence presenting itself as a viable tool in the prediction of seasonal rainfall extremes over West Africa.
基金funded by the National Ministry of High Education,Research and Technological Innovation of the Republic of Niger through the Scientific Research and Technological Innovation Support Funds(FARSIT).
文摘Our paper assessed the improvement performance of the reanalysis(ERA5)compared to ERAI(ERA-Interim)both from the ECMWF(European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast)in representing the WAM(West African Monsoon)dynamic.Our aim is to evaluate the reliability of ERA5 to deliver better climate services than ERAI in the West African Sahel region.Two complementary observational databases namely the CRU(Climate Research Unit)and the GPCC(Global Precipitation Climatology Center)data are used to evaluate precipitation and temperature representation by the two reanalysis.Otherwise,the representation of some major features of the WAM system,such as the SHL(Saharan Heat Low),the AEJ/TEJ(African and Tropical Easterly Jets)was assessed using the two reanalysis data.The obtained results show a better representation of the seasonal accumulated precipitation and average temperature by ERA5 compared to ERAI with higher spatial correlation and lower bias relative to the observations.Furthermore,ERAI appears to be rainier than ERA5 but ERA5 produces more heavy rainfall days.During the period of intense monsoon,the frequency of the SHL is higher for ERAI which would favor intensification of monsoon inflow and depth.The lower SHL frequency observed in the ERA5 could explain the observed weakening intensity of AEJ which is favorable for moist conditions over the Sahel.These findings confirm the progress made by ERA5 compared to ERAI in representing the WAM dynamic and demonstrate its reliability for delivering better climate services over the West African Sahel.
文摘Two simulations of five years (2003-2007) were conducted with the Regional Climate models RegCM4, one coupled with Land surface models BATS and the other with CLM4.5 over West Africa, where simulated air temperature and precipitation were analyzed. The purpose of this study is to assess the performance of RegCM4 coupled with the new CLM4.5 Land</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">surface scheme and the standard one named BATS in order to find the best configuration of RegCM4 over West African. This study could improve our understanding of the sensitivity of land surface model in West Africa climate simulation, and provide relevant information to RegCM4 users. The results show fairly realistic restitution of West Africa’s climatology and indicate correlations of 0.60 to 0.82 between the simulated fields (BATS and CLM4.5) for precipitation. The substitution of BATS surface scheme by CLM4.5 in the model configuration, leads mainly to an improvement of precipitation over the Atlantic Ocean, however, the impact is not sufficiently noticeable over the continent. While the CLM4.5 experiment restores the seasonal cycles and spatial distribution, the biases increase for precipitation and temperature. Positive biases already existing with BATS are amplified over some sub-regions. This study concludes that temporal localization (seasonal effect), spatial distribution (grid points) and magnitude of precipitation and temperature (bias) are not simultaneously improved by CLM4.5. The introduction of the new land surface scheme CLM4.5, therefore, leads to a performance of the same order as that of BATS, albeit with a more detailed formulation.
文摘Along the littoral shelf of northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea (GG), a minor dry season of the rainfall regime is concomitantly observed with the occurrence of a major coastal upwelling in July-August-September (JAS). It was then supposed that this upwelling drives that minor dry season. But no previous studies have tried to understand this minor dry season and, this study is the first focusing on this question. The investigations undertaken to explain this dry season on the Ivorian littoral shelf with the ERA-Interim data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts over the 1980-2016 period have shown that the minor dry season is driven by the Northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during this period and, enhanced by the occurrence of the major coastal upwelling of the northern GG at the same time. These two phenomena interact as follow: i) the ITCZ is located in JAS far in the north cutting off convective processes along the coast, ii) the air on the coastal region is poor in humidity, iii) the air temperature on the bordering region of the GG is cooled by the coastal upwelling to value less than 26°C and not favorable for providing convection.
文摘This study examines the inter-annual variability of rainfall and Mean Sea Level Pressure (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">SLP) over west Africa based on analysis of the Global Precipitation</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Climatology Project (GPCP) and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis respectively. An interconnection is found in this region, between Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly (over Azores and St. Helena High) and monthly mean precipitation during summer (June to September: JJAS). We also found that over northern Senegal (15</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N;17</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">13</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W) the SLP to the north is strong;the wind converges at 200</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hPa corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) the rotational wind 700</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">hPa (corresponding to the position of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) coming from the north-east is negative. In this region, the precipitation is related to the SLP to the north with the opposite sign. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of SLP is also presented, including the mean spectrum of precipitation and pressures to the north (15</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">N and 50</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">25</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W) and south (40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">10</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">S and 40</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">W</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">0</span><span style="white-space:nowrap;font-family:Verdana;">°</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">E). The dominant EOF of Sea Level Pressures north and south of the Atlantic Ocean for GPCP represents about 62.2% and 69.4% of the variance, respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the north account for 24.0% and 6.5% respectively. The second and third EOFs of the pressure to the south represent 12.5% and 8.9% respectively. Wet years in the north of Senegal were associated with anomalous low-pressure areas over the north Atlantic Ocean as opposed to the dry years which exhibited an anomalous high-pressure area in the same region. On the other hand, over the South Atlantic, an opposition is noted. The wavelet analysis method is applied to the SLP showings to the north, south and precipitation in our study area. The indices prove to be very consistent, especially during intervals of high variance.
