Five years ago,Chinese government vowed to bring its energy consumption down by 20%against unit gross domestic product(GDP) during 2006 - 2010,an ambitious but realistic target laid down in a clear-cut term in its 11t...Five years ago,Chinese government vowed to bring its energy consumption down by 20%against unit gross domestic product(GDP) during 2006 - 2010,an ambitious but realistic target laid down in a clear-cut term in its 11th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development.It’s time to finish the goal, but how?展开更多
以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发...以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。展开更多
文摘Five years ago,Chinese government vowed to bring its energy consumption down by 20%against unit gross domestic product(GDP) during 2006 - 2010,an ambitious but realistic target laid down in a clear-cut term in its 11th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development.It’s time to finish the goal, but how?
文摘以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。
