As few or no failures occur during accelerated life test,it is difficult to assess reliability for long-life products with traditional life tests.Reliability assessment using degradation data of product performance ov...As few or no failures occur during accelerated life test,it is difficult to assess reliability for long-life products with traditional life tests.Reliability assessment using degradation data of product performance over time becomes a significant approach.Aerospace electrical connector is researched in this paper.Through the analysis of failure mechanism,the performance degradation law is obtained and the statistical model for degradation failure is set up; according to the research on statistical analysis methods for degradation data,accelerated life test theory and method for aerospace electrical connector based on performance degradation is proposed by improving time series analysis method,and the storage reliability is assessed for Y11X series of aerospace electrical connector with degradation data from accelerated degradation test.The result obtained is basically consistent with that obtained from accelerated life test based on failure data,and the two estimates of product＇s characteristic life only have a difference of 8.7%,but the test time shortens about a half.As a result,a systemic approach is proposed for reliability assessment of highly reliable and long-life aerospace product.展开更多
In order to get a rapid assessment on the storage reliability of high-reliable and long-life products within the storage period, accelerated degradation test data with a large amount of reliability information of prod...In order to get a rapid assessment on the storage reliability of high-reliable and long-life products within the storage period, accelerated degradation test data with a large amount of reliability information of product is adopted. Conducting a constant-stress accelerated degradation test（CSADT） is generally very costly as it requires a large sample size and long time for test. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to carry out research on modeling and statistical analysis methods of step-stress accelerated degradation test （SSADT）. Taking electrical connectors as the object, a research is conducted on statistical model and assessment method for SSADT. On the basis of mixed-effect degradation path model, the statistical model of SSADT for electrical connectors is presented, the maximum likelihood method for SSADT data based on mixed-effect degradation model is proposed. SSADT accelerated by temperature stress is conducted to Y11X-1419 type of electrical connectors, and the storage reliability is assessed with the SSADT data. Compared with the result obtained from accelerated life test, the reliability estimation of 32-year storage period for electrical connectors obtained from S SADT data only have a difference of 0.869%, which validates the accuracy of the degradation model and the feasibility of the test data statistic analysis method put forward.展开更多
For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is ...For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.展开更多
The lifetime of commercial OLED display devices increases, so does the need for an accelerated lifetime testing method. The present work proposes a simple and accurate blackbox testing approach for commercial PMOLED d...The lifetime of commercial OLED display devices increases, so does the need for an accelerated lifetime testing method. The present work proposes a simple and accurate blackbox testing approach for commercial PMOLED display lifetime assessment using violet light-induced accelerated aging. Maximum likelihood estimations using lognormal distributions are performed based on datasets acquired from samples exposed to six different degrees of violet irradiance and accelerated life model is shown to accurately fit experimental data using an inverse power law. Based on these results, weighted average of the logarithmic standard deviation, the average life and median life can then be obtained for specific conditions of operation of the devices. As this method relies exclusively on violet light-induced degradation at room-temperature, this minimally-invasive testing procedure requires no significant modification to the display hardware architecture.展开更多
An accelerated proportional degradation hazards-odds model is proposed. It is a non-parametric model and thus has path- free and distribution-free properties, avoiding the errors caused by faulty assumptions of degrad...An accelerated proportional degradation hazards-odds model is proposed. It is a non-parametric model and thus has path- free and distribution-free properties, avoiding the errors caused by faulty assumptions of degradation paths or distribution of degra- dation measurements. It is established based on a link function which combines the degradation cumulative hazard rate function and the degradation odds function through a transformation pa- rameter, and this makes the accelerated proportional degradation hazards model and the accelerated proportional degradation odds model special cases of it. Hypothesis tests are discussed, and the proposed model is applicable when some model assumptions are satisfied. This model is utilized to estimate the reliability of minia- ture bulbs under low stress levels based on the degradation data obtained under high stress levels to validate the effectiveness of this model.展开更多
The safety and reliability of space connection and separation device has become a key issue due to the increasing service span of deep space exploration mission.The long-term preload relaxation(a key failure mode)of c...The safety and reliability of space connection and separation device has become a key issue due to the increasing service span of deep space exploration mission.The long-term preload relaxation(a key failure mode)of connection and separation devices is focused in this paper.A series of tests have been designed and implemented to investigate the preload relaxation regulation and a comprehensive method has been constructed to analyze and predict the reliable lifetime of the device.The two-stage preload relaxation law of the device is found and reasonably considered.Due to the different relaxation mechanism,the first-stage preload relaxation is assessed based on the working-condition test results,and the second-stage preload relaxation is characterized by accelerated test results.Finally,the service reliability and reliable life are evaluated.The experiment and assessment results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed method which can achieve long-service reliability analysis for space connection and separation device within limited time.展开更多
The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation ...The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation model （SNADM） based on the equivalent method of accumulative damage theory, which tackles the problem that product life is difficult to be determined with degradation rate being a function of the variable of time. A segmented expression of the function of population accumulative degradation is derived. And combined with nonlinear function, an accelerated degradation function, i.e., SNADM is obtained. The parameters of the SNADM are identified by numerical iteration, and the statistical function of degradation track is extrapolated. The reliability function is determined through the type of random process of the degradation distribution. Then an evaluation of product storage life is undertaken by combining the statistical function of degradation track, reliability function and threshold. An example of a missile tank undergoes a step-down stress accelerated degradation test （SDSADT）, in which the results with the SNADM and the classical method are evaluated and compared. The technology introduced is validated with the resultant coincidence of both evaluated and field storage lives.展开更多
The Wiener process as a degradation model plays an important role in the degradation analysis.In this paper, we propose an objective Bayesian analysis for an acceleration degradation Wienermodel which is subjected to ...The Wiener process as a degradation model plays an important role in the degradation analysis.In this paper, we propose an objective Bayesian analysis for an acceleration degradation Wienermodel which is subjected to measurement errors. The Jeffreys prior and reference priors underdifferent group orderings are first derived, the propriety of the posteriors is then validated. It isshown that two of the reference priors can yield proper posteriors while the others cannot. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the frequentist performance of the approach comparedto the maximum likelihood method. Finally, the approach is applied to analyse a real data.展开更多
To assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable or expensive product,one of the most commonly used strategies is to construct step-stress accelerated degradation test(SSADT)which can curtail the test duration a...To assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable or expensive product,one of the most commonly used strategies is to construct step-stress accelerated degradation test(SSADT)which can curtail the test duration and reduce the test cost.In reality,it is not unusual for a unit with a higher degradation rate which exhibits a more volatile degradation path.Recently,Ye,Chen,and Shen[(2015).A new class of Wiener process models for degradation analysis.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,139,58–67]proposed a Wiener process to capture the positive correlation between the drift rate and the volatility.In this paper,an optimal SSADT plan is developed under the assumption that the underlying degradation path follows the Wiener process with correlation.Firstly,the stochastic diffusion process is introduced to model a typical SSADT problem.Then the design variables,including the sample size,the measurement frequency and the numbers of measurements under each stress level,are optimised by minimising the asymptotic variance of the estimated p-percentile of the product’s lifetime distribution subject to the total experimental cost not exceeding a pre-specified budget.Finally,a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method.展开更多
Modern highly reliable products may have two or more quality characteristics(QCs) because of their complex structures and abundant functions. Relations between the QCs should be considered when assessing the reliabili...Modern highly reliable products may have two or more quality characteristics(QCs) because of their complex structures and abundant functions. Relations between the QCs should be considered when assessing the reliability of these products. This paper conducts a Bayesian analysis for a bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model based on the inverse Gaussian(IG) process. We assume that the product considered has two QCs and each of the QCs is governed by an IG process. The relationship between the QCs is described by a Frank copula function. We also assume that the stress on the products affects not only the parameters of the IG processes, but also the parameter of the Frank copula function. The Bayesian MCMC method is developed to calculate the maximum likelihood estimators(MLE) of the model parameters. The reliability function and the mean-time-to-failure(MTTF) are estimated through the calculation of the posterior samples. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the proposed bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model.展开更多
As a key transmission component in computer numerical control(CNC) machine tools,the ball screw mechanism(BSM) is usually investigated under working load conditions. Its accuracy degradation process is relatively long...As a key transmission component in computer numerical control(CNC) machine tools,the ball screw mechanism(BSM) is usually investigated under working load conditions. Its accuracy degradation process is relatively long,which is not conducive to the design and development of new products. In this paper,the normal wear depth of the BSM nut raceway is calculated under the variable speed operation condition using the fractal wear analysis method and the BSM’s accelerated degradation proportional wear model. Parameters of the acceleration degradation model of the double-nut preloaded ball screw pair are calculated based on the physical simulation results. The accelerated degradation test platform of the BSM is designed and manufactured to calculate the raceway wear model when the lubrication condition is broken under the variable-speed inertial load and the boundary lubrication condition under the uniform speed state. Three load forces and two samples are selected for the accelerated degradation test of the BSM. The measured friction torque of the BSM is employed as the evaluation index of the accuracy degradation test. In addition,the life cycle of the accuracy retention is accurately calculated by employing the parameters of the physical simulation model of the BSM. The calculations mentioned above can be used to estimate BSM’s accuracy performance degradation law under normal operating conditions. The application of the proposed model provides a new research method for researching the precision retention of the BSM.展开更多
Accelerated destructive degradation tests(ADDTs)are powerful to provide reliability information in the degradation processes with destructive measurements.In order to carry out an ADDT efficiently,both the estimation ...Accelerated destructive degradation tests(ADDTs)are powerful to provide reliability information in the degradation processes with destructive measurements.In order to carry out an ADDT efficiently,both the estimation precision of parameters and the test cost should be considered.On the basis of the given degradation model and failure criterion,a multiple-objective optimization model for the design of ADDTs is proposed.Under constrains of the maximum measurement time,the total sample size and the number of stress levels,a comprehensive target function is suggested to reflect both the precision of lifetime estimation and total cost,and the optimal test plan is obtained,which is composed by optimal choices for samples size,measurement frequency,and the number of measurements at each stress level.A real example is illustrated to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed approach.展开更多
A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter mode...A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used. Then, the new PSO-GM（1, 2, co） optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.展开更多
Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degrad...Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.展开更多
The effects of accelerated photooxidation on the molecular weight and thermal and mechanical properties of Cast PHBV and PHBV/Cloisite 30B(3 wt%)bionanocomposites are investigated herein.Through size exclusion chromat...The effects of accelerated photooxidation on the molecular weight and thermal and mechanical properties of Cast PHBV and PHBV/Cloisite 30B(3 wt%)bionanocomposites are investigated herein.Through size exclusion chromatography(SEC)analysis,a significant decrease in both weight and number average molecular weights was observed for all irradiated samples over time,resulting from the chain scission mechanism.Differential scanning calorimetry(DSC)data indicated a decrease in degree of crystallinity and melting temperature after UV exposure,with the appearance of double melting peaks related to the changes in the crystal structure of PHBV.Thermal stability,tensile and thermo-mechanical properties were also reduced consecutively in photooxidation,being more pronounced for Cast PHBV.This study shows that the incorporation of Cloisite 30B in PHBV provides a better resistance to photooxidation in comparison with the neat polymer.展开更多
An accelerated laboratory method（saturated ammonium nitrate solution immersion method） was used to analyze the degradation of cement decalcification process. By studying the changes of intensity, volume, elastic mod...An accelerated laboratory method（saturated ammonium nitrate solution immersion method） was used to analyze the degradation of cement decalcification process. By studying the changes of intensity, volume, elastic modulus, quality, p H value, the Ca/Si, and mineral phase, it could be found that the first cement decalcification degradation process was the decalcification of calcium hydroxide, and then CSH gel, AFm, etc. The secondary ettringite deposition happened and the decalcification degradation depth was proportional to the square root of time. Moreover, the corresponding strength of cement would be gradually reduced, cement rock volume shrinkage occurred, p H values decreased, the surface elastic modulus decreased down to a certain level, and slightly changed and the Ca/Si was 3.1 from the beginning and lasted down to 1.3.展开更多
In the past,only one performance parameter was considered in the reliability estimation of micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers,resulting in a one-sided reliability evaluation. Aiming at the failure c...In the past,only one performance parameter was considered in the reliability estimation of micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers,resulting in a one-sided reliability evaluation. Aiming at the failure condition of large range MEMS accelerometers in high temperature environment,the corresponding accelerated degradation test is designed. According to the degradation condition of zero bias and scale factor,multiple dependent reliability estimation of large range MEMS accelerometers is carried out. The results show that the multiple dependent reliability estimation of the large range MEMS accelerometers can improve the accuracy of the estimation and get more accurate results.展开更多
The rapid degradation of organic pollutants,process monitoring and online controlling to obtain advanced products and decreased by-products are great and challenging tasks in environmental treatments.Herein,an acceler...The rapid degradation of organic pollutants,process monitoring and online controlling to obtain advanced products and decreased by-products are great and challenging tasks in environmental treatments.Herein,an accelerated plasma degradation in milliseconds was achieved by combining electrospray-based acceleration and plasma-based degradation.Taking the degradation of chloroaniline as an example,97%of the degradation can be achieved in milliseconds.The velocity distribution of droplets was determined to be 40-50 m/s after being degraded for 0.30 ms,which exhibited different degradation behaviors in different milliseconds.Simultaneously,by virtue of the real-time and on-line detection ability of ambient mass spectrometry,intermediates,by-products and advanced products were monitored.Therefore,degradation mechanisms for different degradation times were proposed,which would provide theoretical guidance on obtaining efficient and green degradation.The fabrication,examining and understanding of accelerated plasma degradation not only enlarged application of accelerated reactions,but also promoted green and efficient degradation for environmental treatments.展开更多
Accurately evaluating the lifespan of the Printed Circuit Board(PCB)in airborne equipment is an essential issue for aircraft design and operation in the marine atmospheric environment.This paper presents a novel evalu...Accurately evaluating the lifespan of the Printed Circuit Board(PCB)in airborne equipment is an essential issue for aircraft design and operation in the marine atmospheric environment.This paper presents a novel evaluation method by fusing Accelerated Degradation Testing(ADT)data,degradation data,and life data of small samples based on the uncertainty degradation process.An uncertain life model of PCB in airborne equipment is constructed by employing the uncertain distribution that considers the accelerated factor of multiple environmental conditions such as temperature,humidity,and salinity.In addition,a degradation process model of PCB in airborne equipment is constructed by employing the uncertain process of fusing ADT data and field data,in which the performance characteristics of dynamic cumulative change are included.Based on minimizing the pth sample moments,an integrated method for parameter estimation of the PCB in airborne equipment is proposed by fusing the multi-source data of life,degradation,and ADT.An engineering case illustrates the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed method.展开更多
In order to predict the lifetime of products appropriately with long lifetime and high reliability,the accelerated degradation testing(ADT)has been proposed.Composite wind turbine blade is one of the most important co...In order to predict the lifetime of products appropriately with long lifetime and high reliability,the accelerated degradation testing(ADT)has been proposed.Composite wind turbine blade is one of the most important components in wind turbine system.Its fatigue cycle is very long in practice.A full-scale fatigue testing is usually used to verify the design of a new blade.In general,the full-scale fatigue testing of blade is accelerated on the basis of the damage equivalent principle.During the full-scale fatigue test ing,blade is subjected to higher testing load than normal operat ing conditions;consequently,the performance degradation of the blade is hastened over time.The full-scale fatigue testing of blade is regarded as a special ADT.According to the fatigue failure criterion,we choose blade stiffness as the characteristic quantity of the blade performance,and propose an accelerated model(AM)for blade on the basis of the theories of ADT.Then,degradation path of the blade stiffness is modeled by using Gamma process.Finally,the lifet ime prediction of full-scale megawatt(MW)blade is conducted by combining the proposed AM and blade stiffness degradation model.The prediction results prove the reasonability and validity of this study.This can supply a new approach to predict the lifetime of the full-scale MW blade.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50935002,Grant No. 51075370,Grant No. 51105341)National Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program,Grant No. 2007AA04Z409)Civil Aerospace Science and Technology Pre-research Project of China (Grant No. B122006 2302)
文摘As few or no failures occur during accelerated life test,it is difficult to assess reliability for long-life products with traditional life tests.Reliability assessment using degradation data of product performance over time becomes a significant approach.Aerospace electrical connector is researched in this paper.Through the analysis of failure mechanism,the performance degradation law is obtained and the statistical model for degradation failure is set up; according to the research on statistical analysis methods for degradation data,accelerated life test theory and method for aerospace electrical connector based on performance degradation is proposed by improving time series analysis method,and the storage reliability is assessed for Y11X series of aerospace electrical connector with degradation data from accelerated degradation test.The result obtained is basically consistent with that obtained from accelerated life test based on failure data,and the two estimates of product＇s characteristic life only have a difference of 8.7%,but the test time shortens about a half.As a result,a systemic approach is proposed for reliability assessment of highly reliable and long-life aerospace product.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.50935002,51075370,51105341,51275480)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.Y1100777)Zhejiang Provincial Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team(Grant No.2010R50005)
文摘In order to get a rapid assessment on the storage reliability of high-reliable and long-life products within the storage period, accelerated degradation test data with a large amount of reliability information of product is adopted. Conducting a constant-stress accelerated degradation test（CSADT） is generally very costly as it requires a large sample size and long time for test. To overcome this problem, it is necessary to carry out research on modeling and statistical analysis methods of step-stress accelerated degradation test （SSADT）. Taking electrical connectors as the object, a research is conducted on statistical model and assessment method for SSADT. On the basis of mixed-effect degradation path model, the statistical model of SSADT for electrical connectors is presented, the maximum likelihood method for SSADT data based on mixed-effect degradation model is proposed. SSADT accelerated by temperature stress is conducted to Y11X-1419 type of electrical connectors, and the storage reliability is assessed with the SSADT data. Compared with the result obtained from accelerated life test, the reliability estimation of 32-year storage period for electrical connectors obtained from S SADT data only have a difference of 0.869%, which validates the accuracy of the degradation model and the feasibility of the test data statistic analysis method put forward.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.
文摘The lifetime of commercial OLED display devices increases, so does the need for an accelerated lifetime testing method. The present work proposes a simple and accurate blackbox testing approach for commercial PMOLED display lifetime assessment using violet light-induced accelerated aging. Maximum likelihood estimations using lognormal distributions are performed based on datasets acquired from samples exposed to six different degrees of violet irradiance and accelerated life model is shown to accurately fit experimental data using an inverse power law. Based on these results, weighted average of the logarithmic standard deviation, the average life and median life can then be obtained for specific conditions of operation of the devices. As this method relies exclusively on violet light-induced degradation at room-temperature, this minimally-invasive testing procedure requires no significant modification to the display hardware architecture.
基金supported by the postdoctoral funding at Tsinghua University
文摘An accelerated proportional degradation hazards-odds model is proposed. It is a non-parametric model and thus has path- free and distribution-free properties, avoiding the errors caused by faulty assumptions of degradation paths or distribution of degra- dation measurements. It is established based on a link function which combines the degradation cumulative hazard rate function and the degradation odds function through a transformation pa- rameter, and this makes the accelerated proportional degradation hazards model and the accelerated proportional degradation odds model special cases of it. Hypothesis tests are discussed, and the proposed model is applicable when some model assumptions are satisfied. This model is utilized to estimate the reliability of minia- ture bulbs under low stress levels based on the degradation data obtained under high stress levels to validate the effectiveness of this model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11872085)。
文摘The safety and reliability of space connection and separation device has become a key issue due to the increasing service span of deep space exploration mission.The long-term preload relaxation(a key failure mode)of connection and separation devices is focused in this paper.A series of tests have been designed and implemented to investigate the preload relaxation regulation and a comprehensive method has been constructed to analyze and predict the reliable lifetime of the device.The two-stage preload relaxation law of the device is found and reasonably considered.Due to the different relaxation mechanism,the first-stage preload relaxation is assessed based on the working-condition test results,and the second-stage preload relaxation is characterized by accelerated test results.Finally,the service reliability and reliable life are evaluated.The experiment and assessment results demonstrate the reasonability and effectiveness of the proposed method which can achieve long-service reliability analysis for space connection and separation device within limited time.
文摘The performance degradation rates of the missile tank are generally time-varying functions uneasily evaluated by general classical evaluation methods. This paper develops a segmented nonlinear accelerated degradation model （SNADM） based on the equivalent method of accumulative damage theory, which tackles the problem that product life is difficult to be determined with degradation rate being a function of the variable of time. A segmented expression of the function of population accumulative degradation is derived. And combined with nonlinear function, an accelerated degradation function, i.e., SNADM is obtained. The parameters of the SNADM are identified by numerical iteration, and the statistical function of degradation track is extrapolated. The reliability function is determined through the type of random process of the degradation distribution. Then an evaluation of product storage life is undertaken by combining the statistical function of degradation track, reliability function and threshold. An example of a missile tank undergoes a step-down stress accelerated degradation test （SDSADT）, in which the results with the SNADM and the classical method are evaluated and compared. The technology introduced is validated with the resultant coincidence of both evaluated and field storage lives.
基金The work is supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education,China(Grant No.17YJC910003).
文摘The Wiener process as a degradation model plays an important role in the degradation analysis.In this paper, we propose an objective Bayesian analysis for an acceleration degradation Wienermodel which is subjected to measurement errors. The Jeffreys prior and reference priors underdifferent group orderings are first derived, the propriety of the posteriors is then validated. It isshown that two of the reference priors can yield proper posteriors while the others cannot. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the frequentist performance of the approach comparedto the maximum likelihood method. Finally, the approach is applied to analyse a real data.
基金Rong-Xian Yue’s research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 11471216]Daojiang He’s research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 11201005].
文摘To assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable or expensive product,one of the most commonly used strategies is to construct step-stress accelerated degradation test(SSADT)which can curtail the test duration and reduce the test cost.In reality,it is not unusual for a unit with a higher degradation rate which exhibits a more volatile degradation path.Recently,Ye,Chen,and Shen[(2015).A new class of Wiener process models for degradation analysis.Reliability Engineering and System Safety,139,58–67]proposed a Wiener process to capture the positive correlation between the drift rate and the volatility.In this paper,an optimal SSADT plan is developed under the assumption that the underlying degradation path follows the Wiener process with correlation.Firstly,the stochastic diffusion process is introduced to model a typical SSADT problem.Then the design variables,including the sample size,the measurement frequency and the numbers of measurements under each stress level,are optimised by minimising the asymptotic variance of the estimated p-percentile of the product’s lifetime distribution subject to the total experimental cost not exceeding a pre-specified budget.Finally,a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11671080)the Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Networked Collective Intelligence(No.BM2017002)
文摘Modern highly reliable products may have two or more quality characteristics(QCs) because of their complex structures and abundant functions. Relations between the QCs should be considered when assessing the reliability of these products. This paper conducts a Bayesian analysis for a bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model based on the inverse Gaussian(IG) process. We assume that the product considered has two QCs and each of the QCs is governed by an IG process. The relationship between the QCs is described by a Frank copula function. We also assume that the stress on the products affects not only the parameters of the IG processes, but also the parameter of the Frank copula function. The Bayesian MCMC method is developed to calculate the maximum likelihood estimators(MLE) of the model parameters. The reliability function and the mean-time-to-failure(MTTF) are estimated through the calculation of the posterior samples. Finally, a simulation example is presented to illustrate the proposed bivariate constant-stress accelerated degradation model.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51575014,51505020)the Key Foundation Project of China Academy of Railway Sciences(No.2021YJ200).
文摘As a key transmission component in computer numerical control(CNC) machine tools,the ball screw mechanism(BSM) is usually investigated under working load conditions. Its accuracy degradation process is relatively long,which is not conducive to the design and development of new products. In this paper,the normal wear depth of the BSM nut raceway is calculated under the variable speed operation condition using the fractal wear analysis method and the BSM’s accelerated degradation proportional wear model. Parameters of the acceleration degradation model of the double-nut preloaded ball screw pair are calculated based on the physical simulation results. The accelerated degradation test platform of the BSM is designed and manufactured to calculate the raceway wear model when the lubrication condition is broken under the variable-speed inertial load and the boundary lubrication condition under the uniform speed state. Three load forces and two samples are selected for the accelerated degradation test of the BSM. The measured friction torque of the BSM is employed as the evaluation index of the accuracy degradation test. In addition,the life cycle of the accuracy retention is accurately calculated by employing the parameters of the physical simulation model of the BSM. The calculations mentioned above can be used to estimate BSM’s accuracy performance degradation law under normal operating conditions. The application of the proposed model provides a new research method for researching the precision retention of the BSM.
文摘Accelerated destructive degradation tests(ADDTs)are powerful to provide reliability information in the degradation processes with destructive measurements.In order to carry out an ADDT efficiently,both the estimation precision of parameters and the test cost should be considered.On the basis of the given degradation model and failure criterion,a multiple-objective optimization model for the design of ADDTs is proposed.Under constrains of the maximum measurement time,the total sample size and the number of stress levels,a comprehensive target function is suggested to reflect both the precision of lifetime estimation and total cost,and the optimal test plan is obtained,which is composed by optimal choices for samples size,measurement frequency,and the number of measurements at each stress level.A real example is illustrated to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed approach.
基金Project(Z132012) supported by the Second Five Technology-based Fund in Science and Industry Bureau of ChinaProject(1004GK0032) supported by General Armament Department for the Common Issues of Military Electronic Components,China
文摘A lifetime prediction method for high-reliability tantalum （Ta） capacitors was proposed, based on multiple degradation measures and grey model （GM）. For analyzing performance degradation data, a two-parameter model based on GM was developed. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the two-parameter model, parameter selection based on particle swarm optimization （PSO） was used. Then, the new PSO-GM（1, 2, co） optimization model was constructed, which was validated experimentally by conducting an accelerated testing on the Ta capacitors. The experiments were conducted at three different stress levels of 85, 120, and 145℃. The results of two experiments were used in estimating the parameters. And the reliability of the Ta capacitors was estimated at the same stress conditions of the third experiment. The results indicate that the proposed method is valid and accurate.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0104504).
文摘Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.
文摘The effects of accelerated photooxidation on the molecular weight and thermal and mechanical properties of Cast PHBV and PHBV/Cloisite 30B(3 wt%)bionanocomposites are investigated herein.Through size exclusion chromatography(SEC)analysis,a significant decrease in both weight and number average molecular weights was observed for all irradiated samples over time,resulting from the chain scission mechanism.Differential scanning calorimetry(DSC)data indicated a decrease in degree of crystallinity and melting temperature after UV exposure,with the appearance of double melting peaks related to the changes in the crystal structure of PHBV.Thermal stability,tensile and thermo-mechanical properties were also reduced consecutively in photooxidation,being more pronounced for Cast PHBV.This study shows that the incorporation of Cloisite 30B in PHBV provides a better resistance to photooxidation in comparison with the neat polymer.
基金Funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China(No.2009-K4-27)
文摘An accelerated laboratory method（saturated ammonium nitrate solution immersion method） was used to analyze the degradation of cement decalcification process. By studying the changes of intensity, volume, elastic modulus, quality, p H value, the Ca/Si, and mineral phase, it could be found that the first cement decalcification degradation process was the decalcification of calcium hydroxide, and then CSH gel, AFm, etc. The secondary ettringite deposition happened and the decalcification degradation depth was proportional to the square root of time. Moreover, the corresponding strength of cement would be gradually reduced, cement rock volume shrinkage occurred, p H values decreased, the surface elastic modulus decreased down to a certain level, and slightly changed and the Ca/Si was 3.1 from the beginning and lasted down to 1.3.
文摘In the past,only one performance parameter was considered in the reliability estimation of micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) accelerometers,resulting in a one-sided reliability evaluation. Aiming at the failure condition of large range MEMS accelerometers in high temperature environment,the corresponding accelerated degradation test is designed. According to the degradation condition of zero bias and scale factor,multiple dependent reliability estimation of large range MEMS accelerometers is carried out. The results show that the multiple dependent reliability estimation of the large range MEMS accelerometers can improve the accuracy of the estimation and get more accurate results.
基金the financial support provided by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFC1805600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.21874012,21974010).
文摘The rapid degradation of organic pollutants,process monitoring and online controlling to obtain advanced products and decreased by-products are great and challenging tasks in environmental treatments.Herein,an accelerated plasma degradation in milliseconds was achieved by combining electrospray-based acceleration and plasma-based degradation.Taking the degradation of chloroaniline as an example,97%of the degradation can be achieved in milliseconds.The velocity distribution of droplets was determined to be 40-50 m/s after being degraded for 0.30 ms,which exhibited different degradation behaviors in different milliseconds.Simultaneously,by virtue of the real-time and on-line detection ability of ambient mass spectrometry,intermediates,by-products and advanced products were monitored.Therefore,degradation mechanisms for different degradation times were proposed,which would provide theoretical guidance on obtaining efficient and green degradation.The fabrication,examining and understanding of accelerated plasma degradation not only enlarged application of accelerated reactions,but also promoted green and efficient degradation for environmental treatments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62073009).
文摘Accurately evaluating the lifespan of the Printed Circuit Board(PCB)in airborne equipment is an essential issue for aircraft design and operation in the marine atmospheric environment.This paper presents a novel evaluation method by fusing Accelerated Degradation Testing(ADT)data,degradation data,and life data of small samples based on the uncertainty degradation process.An uncertain life model of PCB in airborne equipment is constructed by employing the uncertain distribution that considers the accelerated factor of multiple environmental conditions such as temperature,humidity,and salinity.In addition,a degradation process model of PCB in airborne equipment is constructed by employing the uncertain process of fusing ADT data and field data,in which the performance characteristics of dynamic cumulative change are included.Based on minimizing the pth sample moments,an integrated method for parameter estimation of the PCB in airborne equipment is proposed by fusing the multi-source data of life,degradation,and ADT.An engineering case illustrates the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed method.
基金the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(No.51665029)。
文摘In order to predict the lifetime of products appropriately with long lifetime and high reliability,the accelerated degradation testing(ADT)has been proposed.Composite wind turbine blade is one of the most important components in wind turbine system.Its fatigue cycle is very long in practice.A full-scale fatigue testing is usually used to verify the design of a new blade.In general,the full-scale fatigue testing of blade is accelerated on the basis of the damage equivalent principle.During the full-scale fatigue test ing,blade is subjected to higher testing load than normal operat ing conditions;consequently,the performance degradation of the blade is hastened over time.The full-scale fatigue testing of blade is regarded as a special ADT.According to the fatigue failure criterion,we choose blade stiffness as the characteristic quantity of the blade performance,and propose an accelerated model(AM)for blade on the basis of the theories of ADT.Then,degradation path of the blade stiffness is modeled by using Gamma process.Finally,the lifet ime prediction of full-scale megawatt(MW)blade is conducted by combining the proposed AM and blade stiffness degradation model.The prediction results prove the reasonability and validity of this study.This can supply a new approach to predict the lifetime of the full-scale MW blade.
