A novel adaptive multiple dependent state sampling plan(AMDSSP)was designed to inspect products from a continuous manufacturing process under the accelerated life test(ALT)using both double sampling plan(DSP)and multi...A novel adaptive multiple dependent state sampling plan(AMDSSP)was designed to inspect products from a continuous manufacturing process under the accelerated life test(ALT)using both double sampling plan(DSP)and multiple dependent state sampling plan(MDSSP)concepts.Under accelerated conditions,the lifetime of a product follows the Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter,while the scale parameter can be determined using the acceleration factor(AF).The Arrhenius model is used to estimate AF when the damaging process is temperature-sensitive.An economic design of the proposed sampling plan was also considered for the ALT.A genetic algorithm with nonlinear optimization was used to estimate optimal plan parameters to minimize the average sample number(ASN)and total cost of inspection(TC)under both producer’s and consumer’s risks.Numerical results are presented to support the AMDSSP for the ALT,while performance comparisons between the AMDSSP,the MDSSP and a single sampling plan(SSP)for the ALT are discussed.Results indicated that the AMDSSP was more flexible and efficient for ASN and TC than the MDSSP and SSP plans under accelerated conditions.The AMDSSP also had a higher operating characteristic(OC)curve than both the existing sampling plans.Two real datasets of electronic devices for the ALT at high temperatures demonstrated the practicality and usefulness of the proposed sampling plan.展开更多
Accelerated life test(ALT) is currently the main method of assessing product reliability rapidly, and the design of efficient test plans is a critical step to ensure that ALTs can assess the product reliability accura...Accelerated life test(ALT) is currently the main method of assessing product reliability rapidly, and the design of efficient test plans is a critical step to ensure that ALTs can assess the product reliability accurately, quickly, and economically. With the promotion of the national strategy of civil-military integration, ALT will be widely used in the research and development(R&D) of various types of products, and the ALT plan design theory will face further challenges. To aid engineers in selecting appropriate theories and to stimulate researchers to develop the theories required in engineering, with focus on the demands for theory research that arise from the implementation of ALT, this paper reviews and summarizes the development of ALT plan design theory. The development of the theory and method for planning optimal ALT for location-scale distribution, which is the most applied and mature theory of designing the optimal ALT plan, are described in detail. Taking this as the center of radiation, some problems that ALT now faces, such as the verification of the statistical model, limitation of sample size, solutions of resource limits, optimization of the test arrangement, and management of product complexity, are discussed, and the general ideas and methods of solving these problems are analyzed. Suggestions for selecting appropriate ALT plan design theories are proposed, and the urgent solved theory problems and opinions of their solutions are proposed. Based on the principle of convenience for engineers to select appropriate methods according to the problems found in practice, this paper reviews the development of optimal ALT plan design theory by taking the engineering problems arising from the ALT implementation as the main thread, provides guidelines on selecting appropriate theories for engineers, and proposes opinions about the urgent solved theory problems for researchers.展开更多
Constant stress accelerated life tests(ALTs) can be applied to obtain a high estimation accuracy of reliability measure?ments, but these are time?consuming tests. Progressive stress ALTs can yield failures more quickl...Constant stress accelerated life tests(ALTs) can be applied to obtain a high estimation accuracy of reliability measure?ments, but these are time?consuming tests. Progressive stress ALTs can yield failures more quickly but cannot guaran tee the estimation accuracy of reliability measurements. In this paper, a progressive?constant combination stress ALT is proposed to combine the merits of both tests. The optimal plan, in which the design variables are the initial pro?gressive stress level, the progressive stress ramp rate, the sample allocation proportion of the progressive stress and the constant stress level, is determined using the principle of minimizing the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the natural log reliable life for the connectors. A comparison between the optimal PCCSALT plan and the CSALT plan with the same sample size and estimation accuracy shows that the test time is reduced by 13.59% by applying the PCCSALT.展开更多
In general,simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system.The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components.It is often extremely d...In general,simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system.The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components.It is often extremely difficult or impossible to get specific information about the component that caused the system to fail.Unknown failure causes are instances in which the actual cause of systemfailure is unknown.On the other side,thanks to current advanced technology based on computers,automation,and simulation,products have become incredibly dependable and trustworthy,and as a result,obtaining failure data for testing such exceptionally reliable items have become a very costly and time-consuming procedure.Therefore,because of its capacity to produce rapid and adequate failure data in a short period of time,accelerated life testing(ALT)is the most utilized approach in the field of product reliability and life testing.Based on progressively hybrid censored(PrHC)data froma three-component parallel series hybrid system that failed to owe to unknown causes,this paper investigates a challenging problem of parameter estimation and reliability assessment under a step stress partially accelerated life-test(SSPALT).Failures of components are considered to follow a power linear hazard rate(PLHR),which can be used when the failure rate displays linear,decreasing,increasing or bathtub failure patterns.The Tempered random variable(TRV)model is considered to reflect the effect of the high stress level used to induce early failure data.The maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)approach is used to estimate the parameters of the PLHR distribution and the acceleration factor.A variance covariance matrix(VCM)is then obtained to construct the approximate confidence intervals(ACIs).In addition,studentized bootstrap confidence intervals(ST-B CIs)are also constructed and compared with ACIs in terms of their respective interval lengths(ILs).Moreover,a simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the estimation procedures and the methodology discussed in this paper.Finally,real failure data from the air conditioning systems of an airplane is used to illustrate further the performance of the suggested estimation technique.展开更多
Accelerated life testing has been widely used in product life testing experiments because it can quickly provide information on the lifetime distributions by testing products or materials at higher than basic conditio...Accelerated life testing has been widely used in product life testing experiments because it can quickly provide information on the lifetime distributions by testing products or materials at higher than basic conditional levels of stress,such as pressure,temperature,vibration,voltage,or load to induce early failures.In this paper,a step stress partially accelerated life test(SSPALT)is regarded under the progressive type-II censored data with random removals.The removals from the test are considered to have the binomial distribution.The life times of the testing items are assumed to follow lengthbiased weighted Lomax distribution.The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters of length-biased weighted Lomax.The asymptotic confidence interval estimates of the model parameters are evaluated using the Fisher information matrix.The Bayesian estimators cannot be obtained in the explicit form,so the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to address this problem,which ensures both obtaining the Bayesian estimates as well as constructing the credible interval of the involved parameters.The precision of the Bayesian estimates and the maximum likelihood estimates are compared by simulations.In addition,to compare the performance of the considered confidence intervals for different parameter values and sample sizes.The Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than the approximate confidence intervals since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter,for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Also,the percentile Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than Bootstrap-t since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Further performance comparison is conducted by the experiments with real data.展开更多
Accelerated life testing(ALT)has been widely used to obtain information about the product's life characteristics at normal conditions in a relatively short period of time.Two key issues with ALT are test design an...Accelerated life testing(ALT)has been widely used to obtain information about the product's life characteristics at normal conditions in a relatively short period of time.Two key issues with ALT are test design and data analysis.The test design of constant stress ALT was studied in this paper.The test design usually combines engineering experiences with optimization models.Such approaches are hard to be implemented by practitioners.A"pure"empirical approach was presented to address this issue.With the proposed approach,some of the decision variables are determined based on the results from the literature,some of the other variables are determined based on engineering analysis and /or judgment,and the remaining variables are determined based on the empirical relations developed in this paper.A real-world example is included to illustrate the appropriateness of the proposed approach.展开更多
In order to solve the life problem of vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) within shorter time, and reduce the life prediction cost, a constant-step stress accelerated life test was performed with its cathode temperature ...In order to solve the life problem of vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) within shorter time, and reduce the life prediction cost, a constant-step stress accelerated life test was performed with its cathode temperature increased. Statistical analysis was done by applying logarithmic normal distribution for describing the life, and least square method (LSM) for estimating logarithmic normal parameters. Self-designed special software was used to predict the VFD life. It is verified by numerical results that the VFD life follows logarithmic normal distribution, and that the life-stress relationship satisfies linear Arrhenius equation completely. The accurate calculation of the key parameters enables the rapid estimation of VFD life.展开更多
Retired power battery construction energy storage systems(ESSs)for echelon utilization can not only extend the remaining capacity value of the battery,and decrease environmental pollution,but also reduce the initial c...Retired power battery construction energy storage systems(ESSs)for echelon utilization can not only extend the remaining capacity value of the battery,and decrease environmental pollution,but also reduce the initial cost of energy storage systems.In this paper,an ESS constructed of retired power batteries for echelon utilization in microgrids(MGs)is considered.Firstly,considering the influence of different discharge depths on the battery life cycle,the correlation equation between the state of charge(SOC)and the state of health(SOH)is established.Secondly,the accelerated life test method,based on the inverse power law coefficient equation,is proposed,and it is used to evaluate the reliability of the ESS.Finally,according to the SOC characteristics,the dynamic security margin of the ESS is established.The life cycle cost,supply-demand balance and ESS balanced control are comprehensively considered,and the location and capacity of energy storage in MGs are determined.It is simulated using the IEEE-RTS 24 node system;the results show that the investment cost of the ESS is reduced and the operational life is prolonged.展开更多
Dependent competing risks model is a practical model in the analysis of lifetime and failure modes.The dependence can be captured using a statistical tool to explore the re-lationship among failure causes.In this pape...Dependent competing risks model is a practical model in the analysis of lifetime and failure modes.The dependence can be captured using a statistical tool to explore the re-lationship among failure causes.In this paper,an Archimedean copula is chosen to describe the dependence in a constant-stress accelerated life test.We study the Archimedean copula based dependent competing risks model using parametric and nonparametric methods.The parametric likelihood inference is presented by deriving the general expression of likelihood function based on assumed survival Archimedean copula associated with the model parameter estimation.Combining the nonparametric estimation with progressive censoring and the non-parametric copula estimation,we introduce a nonparametric reliability estimation method given competing risks data.A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to show the performance of the estimation methods.展开更多
Inthispaper,theoptimumtestplanandparameterestimationfor3-stepstep-stress accelerated life tests in the presence of modified progressive Type-I censoring are discussed.It is assumed that the lifetime of test units foll...Inthispaper,theoptimumtestplanandparameterestimationfor3-stepstep-stress accelerated life tests in the presence of modified progressive Type-I censoring are discussed.It is assumed that the lifetime of test units follows a Lomax distribution with log of characteristic life being quadratic function of stress level.The maximum likelihood and Bayesian method are used to obtain the point and interval estimators of the model parameters.The Bayes estimates are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Gibbs sampling.The optimum plan for 3-step step-stress test under modified progressive Type-I censoring is developed which minimizes the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of log of scale parameter at design stress.Finally,the numerical study with sensitivity analysis is presented to illustrate the proposed study.展开更多
Double-crossed-step-stress(DCSS) accelerated life test(ALT) method is widely used for estimating the lifetime of products with high reliability and long lifetime. In order to further reduce the test time and test cost...Double-crossed-step-stress(DCSS) accelerated life test(ALT) method is widely used for estimating the lifetime of products with high reliability and long lifetime. In order to further reduce the test time and test cost, a double-synchronous-step-stress(DSSS) ALT method which combines a double-synchronous-step-downstress(DSSDS) ALT method and a double-synchronous-step-up-stress(DSSUS) ALT method is proposed. The accelerated stresses decrease and increase in a synchronous way with one step in the DSSDS-ALT and DSSUSALT methods, respectively. Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the two methods, and the validity and efficiency of them are demonstrated by the simulation results. In addition, a comparison analysis of efficiency between DSSDS-ALT method and DSSUS-ALT method is carried out. The result shows that the DSSDS-ALT method compared with the DSSUS-ALT method can significantly improve the test efficiency under the same test condition.展开更多
Engineering practice has shown that early faults of gearboxes are a leading maintenance cost driver that can easily lower the profit from a wind turbine operation.A novel oil-lubricated electrostatic monitoring of wea...Engineering practice has shown that early faults of gearboxes are a leading maintenance cost driver that can easily lower the profit from a wind turbine operation.A novel oil-lubricated electrostatic monitoring of wear debris for a wind turbine gearbox is presented.The continuous wavelet transform(CWT)is used to eliminate the noises of the original electrostatic signal.The kurtosis and root mean square(RMS)values of the time domain signal are extracted as the characteristic parameters to reflect the deterioration of the gearbox.The overall tendency of electrostatic signals in accelerated life test is analyzed.In the eighth cycle,the abnormal wear in the wind turbine gearbox is detected by electrostatic monitoring.A comparison with the popular MetalScan monitoring is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the electrostatic monitoring method.The results demonstrate that the electrostatic monitoring method can detect the fault accurately.展开更多
We present a new nonparametric predictive inference(NPI)method using a power-normal model for accelerated life testing(ALT).Combined with the accelerating link function and imprecise probability theory,the proposed me...We present a new nonparametric predictive inference(NPI)method using a power-normal model for accelerated life testing(ALT).Combined with the accelerating link function and imprecise probability theory,the proposed method is a feasible way to predict the life of the product using ALT failure data.To validate the method,we run a series of simulations and conduct accelerated life tests with real products.The NPI lower and upper survival functions show the robustness of our method for life prediction.This is a continuous research,and some progresses have been made by updating the link function between different stress levels.We also explain how to renew and apply our model.Moreover,discussions have been made about the performance.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the statistical analysis for the dependent competing risks model in theconstant stress accelerated life testing (CSALT) with Type-II progressive censoring. It is focusedon two competing risk...In this paper, we consider the statistical analysis for the dependent competing risks model in theconstant stress accelerated life testing (CSALT) with Type-II progressive censoring. It is focusedon two competing risks from Lomax distribution. The maximum likelihood estimators of theunknown parameters, the acceleration coefficients and the reliability of unit are obtained by usingthe Bivariate Pareto Copula function and the measure of dependence known as Kendall’s tau.In addition, the 95% confidence intervals as well as the coverage percentages are obtained byusing Bootstrap-p and Bootstrap-t method. Then, a simulation study is carried out by the MonteCarlo method for different measures of Kendall’s tau and different testing schemes. Finally, a realcompeting risks data is analysed for illustrative purposes. The results indicate that using copulafunction to deal with the dependent competing risks problems is effective and feasible.展开更多
As a reliability quantitative specification, parametric accelerated life testing was used to assess the reliability of a newly designed compressor of a commercial refrigerator subjected to repetitive stresses. A gener...As a reliability quantitative specification, parametric accelerated life testing was used to assess the reliability of a newly designed compressor of a commercial refrigerator subjected to repetitive stresses. A generalized life-stress failure model and new sample size equation with a new load concept were derived starting with the basic refrigeration cycle. The sample size equation with the acceleration factor also enabled the parametric accelerated life testing to quickly evaluate the expected lifetime. The design of this testing should help an engineer uncover the design parameters affecting reliability during the design process of the compressor system. Consequently, it should help companies improve product reliability and avoid recalls due to the product failures in the field. A newly designed compressor in a commercial refrigerator was used as a test case.展开更多
Parametric Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) was used to improve the reliability of ice-maker system with a fractured helix upper dispenser in field. By using bond graphs and state equations, a variety of mechanical load...Parametric Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) was used to improve the reliability of ice-maker system with a fractured helix upper dispenser in field. By using bond graphs and state equations, a variety of mechanical loads in the assembly were analyzed. The acceleration factor was derived from a generalized life-stress failure model with a new load concept. To reproduce the failure modes and mechanisms causing the fracture, new sample size equation was derived. The sample size equation with the acceleration factor also enabled the parametric accelerated life testing to quickly reproduce early failure in field. Consequently, the failure modes and mechanisms found were identical with those of the failed sample. The design of this testing should help an engineer uncover the design parameters affecting the reliability of fractured helix upper dispenser in field. By eliminating the design flaws, gaps and weldline, the B1 life of the redesign of helix upper dispenser is now guaranteed to be over 10 years with a yearly failure rate of 0.1% that is the reliability quantitative test specifications (RQ).展开更多
基金This research was supported by The Science,Research and Innovation Promotion Funding(TSRI)(Grant No.FRB650070/0168)This research block grants was managed under Rajamangala University of Technology Thanyaburi(FRB65E0634M.3).
文摘A novel adaptive multiple dependent state sampling plan(AMDSSP)was designed to inspect products from a continuous manufacturing process under the accelerated life test(ALT)using both double sampling plan(DSP)and multiple dependent state sampling plan(MDSSP)concepts.Under accelerated conditions,the lifetime of a product follows the Weibull distribution with a known shape parameter,while the scale parameter can be determined using the acceleration factor(AF).The Arrhenius model is used to estimate AF when the damaging process is temperature-sensitive.An economic design of the proposed sampling plan was also considered for the ALT.A genetic algorithm with nonlinear optimization was used to estimate optimal plan parameters to minimize the average sample number(ASN)and total cost of inspection(TC)under both producer’s and consumer’s risks.Numerical results are presented to support the AMDSSP for the ALT,while performance comparisons between the AMDSSP,the MDSSP and a single sampling plan(SSP)for the ALT are discussed.Results indicated that the AMDSSP was more flexible and efficient for ASN and TC than the MDSSP and SSP plans under accelerated conditions.The AMDSSP also had a higher operating characteristic(OC)curve than both the existing sampling plans.Two real datasets of electronic devices for the ALT at high temperatures demonstrated the practicality and usefulness of the proposed sampling plan.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51275480,51305402,51405447)International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China(Grant No.2015DFA71400)
文摘Accelerated life test(ALT) is currently the main method of assessing product reliability rapidly, and the design of efficient test plans is a critical step to ensure that ALTs can assess the product reliability accurately, quickly, and economically. With the promotion of the national strategy of civil-military integration, ALT will be widely used in the research and development(R&D) of various types of products, and the ALT plan design theory will face further challenges. To aid engineers in selecting appropriate theories and to stimulate researchers to develop the theories required in engineering, with focus on the demands for theory research that arise from the implementation of ALT, this paper reviews and summarizes the development of ALT plan design theory. The development of the theory and method for planning optimal ALT for location-scale distribution, which is the most applied and mature theory of designing the optimal ALT plan, are described in detail. Taking this as the center of radiation, some problems that ALT now faces, such as the verification of the statistical model, limitation of sample size, solutions of resource limits, optimization of the test arrangement, and management of product complexity, are discussed, and the general ideas and methods of solving these problems are analyzed. Suggestions for selecting appropriate ALT plan design theories are proposed, and the urgent solved theory problems and opinions of their solutions are proposed. Based on the principle of convenience for engineers to select appropriate methods according to the problems found in practice, this paper reviews the development of optimal ALT plan design theory by taking the engineering problems arising from the ALT implementation as the main thread, provides guidelines on selecting appropriate theories for engineers, and proposes opinions about the urgent solved theory problems for researchers.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51405447)International Science&Technology Cooperation Program of China(Grant No.2015DFA71400)
文摘Constant stress accelerated life tests(ALTs) can be applied to obtain a high estimation accuracy of reliability measure?ments, but these are time?consuming tests. Progressive stress ALTs can yield failures more quickly but cannot guaran tee the estimation accuracy of reliability measurements. In this paper, a progressive?constant combination stress ALT is proposed to combine the merits of both tests. The optimal plan, in which the design variables are the initial pro?gressive stress level, the progressive stress ramp rate, the sample allocation proportion of the progressive stress and the constant stress level, is determined using the principle of minimizing the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of the natural log reliable life for the connectors. A comparison between the optimal PCCSALT plan and the CSALT plan with the same sample size and estimation accuracy shows that the test time is reduced by 13.59% by applying the PCCSALT.
文摘In general,simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system.The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components.It is often extremely difficult or impossible to get specific information about the component that caused the system to fail.Unknown failure causes are instances in which the actual cause of systemfailure is unknown.On the other side,thanks to current advanced technology based on computers,automation,and simulation,products have become incredibly dependable and trustworthy,and as a result,obtaining failure data for testing such exceptionally reliable items have become a very costly and time-consuming procedure.Therefore,because of its capacity to produce rapid and adequate failure data in a short period of time,accelerated life testing(ALT)is the most utilized approach in the field of product reliability and life testing.Based on progressively hybrid censored(PrHC)data froma three-component parallel series hybrid system that failed to owe to unknown causes,this paper investigates a challenging problem of parameter estimation and reliability assessment under a step stress partially accelerated life-test(SSPALT).Failures of components are considered to follow a power linear hazard rate(PLHR),which can be used when the failure rate displays linear,decreasing,increasing or bathtub failure patterns.The Tempered random variable(TRV)model is considered to reflect the effect of the high stress level used to induce early failure data.The maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)approach is used to estimate the parameters of the PLHR distribution and the acceleration factor.A variance covariance matrix(VCM)is then obtained to construct the approximate confidence intervals(ACIs).In addition,studentized bootstrap confidence intervals(ST-B CIs)are also constructed and compared with ACIs in terms of their respective interval lengths(ILs).Moreover,a simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the estimation procedures and the methodology discussed in this paper.Finally,real failure data from the air conditioning systems of an airplane is used to illustrate further the performance of the suggested estimation technique.
基金This work was funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research(DSR),King Abdulaziz University,Jeddah,under Grant No.FP-190-42.
文摘Accelerated life testing has been widely used in product life testing experiments because it can quickly provide information on the lifetime distributions by testing products or materials at higher than basic conditional levels of stress,such as pressure,temperature,vibration,voltage,or load to induce early failures.In this paper,a step stress partially accelerated life test(SSPALT)is regarded under the progressive type-II censored data with random removals.The removals from the test are considered to have the binomial distribution.The life times of the testing items are assumed to follow lengthbiased weighted Lomax distribution.The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters of length-biased weighted Lomax.The asymptotic confidence interval estimates of the model parameters are evaluated using the Fisher information matrix.The Bayesian estimators cannot be obtained in the explicit form,so the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to address this problem,which ensures both obtaining the Bayesian estimates as well as constructing the credible interval of the involved parameters.The precision of the Bayesian estimates and the maximum likelihood estimates are compared by simulations.In addition,to compare the performance of the considered confidence intervals for different parameter values and sample sizes.The Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than the approximate confidence intervals since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter,for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Also,the percentile Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than Bootstrap-t since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Further performance comparison is conducted by the experiments with real data.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71371035)
文摘Accelerated life testing(ALT)has been widely used to obtain information about the product's life characteristics at normal conditions in a relatively short period of time.Two key issues with ALT are test design and data analysis.The test design of constant stress ALT was studied in this paper.The test design usually combines engineering experiences with optimization models.Such approaches are hard to be implemented by practitioners.A"pure"empirical approach was presented to address this issue.With the proposed approach,some of the decision variables are determined based on the results from the literature,some of the other variables are determined based on engineering analysis and /or judgment,and the remaining variables are determined based on the empirical relations developed in this paper.A real-world example is included to illustrate the appropriateness of the proposed approach.
文摘In order to solve the life problem of vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) within shorter time, and reduce the life prediction cost, a constant-step stress accelerated life test was performed with its cathode temperature increased. Statistical analysis was done by applying logarithmic normal distribution for describing the life, and least square method (LSM) for estimating logarithmic normal parameters. Self-designed special software was used to predict the VFD life. It is verified by numerical results that the VFD life follows logarithmic normal distribution, and that the life-stress relationship satisfies linear Arrhenius equation completely. The accurate calculation of the key parameters enables the rapid estimation of VFD life.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(DG71-18-009)。
文摘Retired power battery construction energy storage systems(ESSs)for echelon utilization can not only extend the remaining capacity value of the battery,and decrease environmental pollution,but also reduce the initial cost of energy storage systems.In this paper,an ESS constructed of retired power batteries for echelon utilization in microgrids(MGs)is considered.Firstly,considering the influence of different discharge depths on the battery life cycle,the correlation equation between the state of charge(SOC)and the state of health(SOH)is established.Secondly,the accelerated life test method,based on the inverse power law coefficient equation,is proposed,and it is used to evaluate the reliability of the ESS.Finally,according to the SOC characteristics,the dynamic security margin of the ESS is established.The life cycle cost,supply-demand balance and ESS balanced control are comprehensively considered,and the location and capacity of energy storage in MGs are determined.It is simulated using the IEEE-RTS 24 node system;the results show that the investment cost of the ESS is reduced and the operational life is prolonged.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12101476,12061091,11901134)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZYTS23054,QTZX22054)+1 种基金the Yunnan Funda-mental Research Projects(202101AT070103)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province(2020JQ-285).
文摘Dependent competing risks model is a practical model in the analysis of lifetime and failure modes.The dependence can be captured using a statistical tool to explore the re-lationship among failure causes.In this paper,an Archimedean copula is chosen to describe the dependence in a constant-stress accelerated life test.We study the Archimedean copula based dependent competing risks model using parametric and nonparametric methods.The parametric likelihood inference is presented by deriving the general expression of likelihood function based on assumed survival Archimedean copula associated with the model parameter estimation.Combining the nonparametric estimation with progressive censoring and the non-parametric copula estimation,we introduce a nonparametric reliability estimation method given competing risks data.A simulation study and a real data analysis are conducted to show the performance of the estimation methods.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(11401341,11271136 and 81530086)111 Project(B14019)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province,China(2015J05014,2016J01681 and 2017N0029)Scientific Research Training Program of Fujian Province University for Distinguished Young Scholar(2015)New Century Excellent Talents Support Project of Fujian Province University([2016]23)
文摘Inthispaper,theoptimumtestplanandparameterestimationfor3-stepstep-stress accelerated life tests in the presence of modified progressive Type-I censoring are discussed.It is assumed that the lifetime of test units follows a Lomax distribution with log of characteristic life being quadratic function of stress level.The maximum likelihood and Bayesian method are used to obtain the point and interval estimators of the model parameters.The Bayes estimates are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Gibbs sampling.The optimum plan for 3-step step-stress test under modified progressive Type-I censoring is developed which minimizes the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of log of scale parameter at design stress.Finally,the numerical study with sensitivity analysis is presented to illustrate the proposed study.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51265025 and 51665029)
文摘Double-crossed-step-stress(DCSS) accelerated life test(ALT) method is widely used for estimating the lifetime of products with high reliability and long lifetime. In order to further reduce the test time and test cost, a double-synchronous-step-stress(DSSS) ALT method which combines a double-synchronous-step-downstress(DSSDS) ALT method and a double-synchronous-step-up-stress(DSSUS) ALT method is proposed. The accelerated stresses decrease and increase in a synchronous way with one step in the DSSDS-ALT and DSSUSALT methods, respectively. Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the two methods, and the validity and efficiency of them are demonstrated by the simulation results. In addition, a comparison analysis of efficiency between DSSDS-ALT method and DSSUS-ALT method is carried out. The result shows that the DSSDS-ALT method compared with the DSSUS-ALT method can significantly improve the test efficiency under the same test condition.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61403198,BK20140827 and U1233114)the Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education(No.KYLX15_0313)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.NS2015072)the support provided by China Scholarship Council(No.201606830028)
文摘Engineering practice has shown that early faults of gearboxes are a leading maintenance cost driver that can easily lower the profit from a wind turbine operation.A novel oil-lubricated electrostatic monitoring of wear debris for a wind turbine gearbox is presented.The continuous wavelet transform(CWT)is used to eliminate the noises of the original electrostatic signal.The kurtosis and root mean square(RMS)values of the time domain signal are extracted as the characteristic parameters to reflect the deterioration of the gearbox.The overall tendency of electrostatic signals in accelerated life test is analyzed.In the eighth cycle,the abnormal wear in the wind turbine gearbox is detected by electrostatic monitoring.A comparison with the popular MetalScan monitoring is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the electrostatic monitoring method.The results demonstrate that the electrostatic monitoring method can detect the fault accurately.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11272082)the China Scholarship Council State Scholarship Fund(No.201506070017)
文摘We present a new nonparametric predictive inference(NPI)method using a power-normal model for accelerated life testing(ALT).Combined with the accelerating link function and imprecise probability theory,the proposed method is a feasible way to predict the life of the product using ALT failure data.To validate the method,we run a series of simulations and conduct accelerated life tests with real products.The NPI lower and upper survival functions show the robustness of our method for life prediction.This is a continuous research,and some progresses have been made by updating the link function between different stress levels.We also explain how to renew and apply our model.Moreover,discussions have been made about the performance.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 71571144],[grant number 71401134],[grant number 71171164],[grant number 11701406]Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province[grant number 2015JM1003]Program of International Cooperation and Exchanges in Science and Technology Funded by Shaanxi Province[grant number 2016KW-033].
文摘In this paper, we consider the statistical analysis for the dependent competing risks model in theconstant stress accelerated life testing (CSALT) with Type-II progressive censoring. It is focusedon two competing risks from Lomax distribution. The maximum likelihood estimators of theunknown parameters, the acceleration coefficients and the reliability of unit are obtained by usingthe Bivariate Pareto Copula function and the measure of dependence known as Kendall’s tau.In addition, the 95% confidence intervals as well as the coverage percentages are obtained byusing Bootstrap-p and Bootstrap-t method. Then, a simulation study is carried out by the MonteCarlo method for different measures of Kendall’s tau and different testing schemes. Finally, a realcompeting risks data is analysed for illustrative purposes. The results indicate that using copulafunction to deal with the dependent competing risks problems is effective and feasible.
文摘As a reliability quantitative specification, parametric accelerated life testing was used to assess the reliability of a newly designed compressor of a commercial refrigerator subjected to repetitive stresses. A generalized life-stress failure model and new sample size equation with a new load concept were derived starting with the basic refrigeration cycle. The sample size equation with the acceleration factor also enabled the parametric accelerated life testing to quickly evaluate the expected lifetime. The design of this testing should help an engineer uncover the design parameters affecting reliability during the design process of the compressor system. Consequently, it should help companies improve product reliability and avoid recalls due to the product failures in the field. A newly designed compressor in a commercial refrigerator was used as a test case.
文摘Parametric Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) was used to improve the reliability of ice-maker system with a fractured helix upper dispenser in field. By using bond graphs and state equations, a variety of mechanical loads in the assembly were analyzed. The acceleration factor was derived from a generalized life-stress failure model with a new load concept. To reproduce the failure modes and mechanisms causing the fracture, new sample size equation was derived. The sample size equation with the acceleration factor also enabled the parametric accelerated life testing to quickly reproduce early failure in field. Consequently, the failure modes and mechanisms found were identical with those of the failed sample. The design of this testing should help an engineer uncover the design parameters affecting the reliability of fractured helix upper dispenser in field. By eliminating the design flaws, gaps and weldline, the B1 life of the redesign of helix upper dispenser is now guaranteed to be over 10 years with a yearly failure rate of 0.1% that is the reliability quantitative test specifications (RQ).
