A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system(HFACS) and the accident causation ‘‘2-4'' ...A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system(HFACS) and the accident causation ‘‘2-4'' model(24 Model), as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.展开更多
In this paper,a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory.In the model,the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors.By e...In this paper,a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory.In the model,the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors.By employing the complex network theory,especially its statistical indicators,the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective.As a case,the"7.23"China–Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model.The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident.In conclusion,the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and,hence,greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.展开更多
This paper aims at investigating brain injury mechanisms and predicting head injuries in real world accidents. For this purpose, a 3D human head finite element model (HBM-head) was developed based on head-brain anatom...This paper aims at investigating brain injury mechanisms and predicting head injuries in real world accidents. For this purpose, a 3D human head finite element model (HBM-head) was developed based on head-brain anatomy. The HBM head model was validated with two experimental tests. Then the head finite element(FE) model and a multi-body system (MBS) model were used to carry out reconstructions of real world vehicle-pedestrian accidents and brain injuries. The MBS models were used for calculating the head impact conditions in vehicle impacts. The HBM-head model was used for calculating the injury related physical parameters, such as intracranial pressure, stress, and strain. The calculated intracranial pressure and strain distribution were correlated w/th the injury outcomes observed from accidents. It is shown that this model can predict the intracranial biomechanical response and calculate the injury related physical parameters. The head FE model has good biofidelity and will be a valuable tool for the study of injury mechanisms and the tolerance level of the brain.展开更多
In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The...In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.展开更多
In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal...In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal production in China and prepare for future monitoring and prevention of safety incidents,this study mainly elaborated on the basic situation of coal resources and national mining accidents over the past five years(2017-2021),from four dimensions(accident level,type,region,and time),and then proposed the preventive measures based on accident statistical laws.The results show that the storage of coal resources has obvious geographic characteristics,mainly concentrated in the Midwest,with coal resources in Shanxi and Shaanxi accounting for about 49.4%.The proportion of coal consumption has dropped from 70.2%to 56%between 2011 and 2021,but still accounts for more than half of the all.Meanwhile,the accident-prone areas are positively correlated with the amount of coal production.Among different levels of coal mine accidents,general accidents had the highest number of accidents and deaths,with 692 accidents and 783 deaths,accounting for 87.6%and 54.64%respectively.The frequency of roof,gas,and transportation accidents is relatively high,and the number of single fatalities caused by gas accidents is the largest,about 4.18.In terms of geographical distribution of accidents,the safety situation in Shanxi Province is the most severe.From the time distribution of coal mine accidents,the accidents mainly occurred in July and August,and rarely occurred in February and December.Finally,the"4+4"safety management model is proposed,combining the statistical results with coal production in China.Based on the existing health and safety management systems,the manage-ments are divided into four sub-categories,and more specific measures are suggested.展开更多
当前建筑业迅速发展,但随之而来的是频频发生的建筑安全事故,造成不可逆转的损失和伤害。虽然近些年来在建筑安全事故控制方面的研究已取得一定的成果,但建筑安全事故仍未得到有效控制。针对建筑业市政工程安全事故总数和死亡人数,探究...当前建筑业迅速发展,但随之而来的是频频发生的建筑安全事故,造成不可逆转的损失和伤害。虽然近些年来在建筑安全事故控制方面的研究已取得一定的成果,但建筑安全事故仍未得到有效控制。针对建筑业市政工程安全事故总数和死亡人数,探究二者之间的关系,构建灰狼优化算法-支持向量回归机(Grey Wolf Optimization and Support Vactor Regression,GWO-SVR)组合模型,收集2008—2020年每个月的建筑安全事故数据及死亡人数数据集,发现二者之间成正向相关关系,以建筑安全事故数为特征对建筑死亡人数进行预测,精度达到95%以上,对建筑安全资源与人力投入有较大参考价值,有助于提升建筑安全管理水平。展开更多
基金support from the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51534008)
文摘A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system(HFACS) and the accident causation ‘‘2-4'' model(24 Model), as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.
基金Project supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2011AA110502)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71271022)the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,China (Grant No.RCS2012ZQ001)
文摘In this paper,a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory.In the model,the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors.By employing the complex network theory,especially its statistical indicators,the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective.As a case,the"7.23"China–Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model.The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident.In conclusion,the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and,hence,greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 10472031).
文摘This paper aims at investigating brain injury mechanisms and predicting head injuries in real world accidents. For this purpose, a 3D human head finite element model (HBM-head) was developed based on head-brain anatomy. The HBM head model was validated with two experimental tests. Then the head finite element(FE) model and a multi-body system (MBS) model were used to carry out reconstructions of real world vehicle-pedestrian accidents and brain injuries. The MBS models were used for calculating the head impact conditions in vehicle impacts. The HBM-head model was used for calculating the injury related physical parameters, such as intracranial pressure, stress, and strain. The calculated intracranial pressure and strain distribution were correlated w/th the injury outcomes observed from accidents. It is shown that this model can predict the intracranial biomechanical response and calculate the injury related physical parameters. The head FE model has good biofidelity and will be a valuable tool for the study of injury mechanisms and the tolerance level of the brain.
文摘In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3004701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52274242,51904293)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20190627)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019M661998).
文摘In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal production in China and prepare for future monitoring and prevention of safety incidents,this study mainly elaborated on the basic situation of coal resources and national mining accidents over the past five years(2017-2021),from four dimensions(accident level,type,region,and time),and then proposed the preventive measures based on accident statistical laws.The results show that the storage of coal resources has obvious geographic characteristics,mainly concentrated in the Midwest,with coal resources in Shanxi and Shaanxi accounting for about 49.4%.The proportion of coal consumption has dropped from 70.2%to 56%between 2011 and 2021,but still accounts for more than half of the all.Meanwhile,the accident-prone areas are positively correlated with the amount of coal production.Among different levels of coal mine accidents,general accidents had the highest number of accidents and deaths,with 692 accidents and 783 deaths,accounting for 87.6%and 54.64%respectively.The frequency of roof,gas,and transportation accidents is relatively high,and the number of single fatalities caused by gas accidents is the largest,about 4.18.In terms of geographical distribution of accidents,the safety situation in Shanxi Province is the most severe.From the time distribution of coal mine accidents,the accidents mainly occurred in July and August,and rarely occurred in February and December.Finally,the"4+4"safety management model is proposed,combining the statistical results with coal production in China.Based on the existing health and safety management systems,the manage-ments are divided into four sub-categories,and more specific measures are suggested.
文摘当前建筑业迅速发展,但随之而来的是频频发生的建筑安全事故,造成不可逆转的损失和伤害。虽然近些年来在建筑安全事故控制方面的研究已取得一定的成果,但建筑安全事故仍未得到有效控制。针对建筑业市政工程安全事故总数和死亡人数,探究二者之间的关系,构建灰狼优化算法-支持向量回归机(Grey Wolf Optimization and Support Vactor Regression,GWO-SVR)组合模型,收集2008—2020年每个月的建筑安全事故数据及死亡人数数据集,发现二者之间成正向相关关系,以建筑安全事故数为特征对建筑死亡人数进行预测,精度达到95%以上,对建筑安全资源与人力投入有较大参考价值,有助于提升建筑安全管理水平。
