The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, an...The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, and Toronto) located at Ontario, Canada. To achieve this goal, the future climate change scenarios and rainfall simulations, at local scale, were needed. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five global climate model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. The downscaled meteorological variables included surface and upper-air hourly temperature, dew point, west-east and south-north winds, air pressure, and total cloud cover. These variables are necessary to project future daily rainfall quantities using within-weather-type rainfall simulation models. A model result verification process has been built into the whole exercise, including rainfall simulation modeling and the development of downscaling transfer functions. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, showed a very good agreement. To effectively evaluate heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses, a rainfall index was developed considering rainfall intensity and duration. The index was evaluated to link with insurance data as to determination of a critical threshold of the rainfall index for triggering high numbers of rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The relationship between rainfall index and insurance data was used with future rainfall simulations to project changes in future heavy rainfall-related sewer flood risks in terms of water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The modeled results showed that, averaged over the five GCM scenarios and across the study area, both the monthly total number of rainfall-related water damage claims and incurred losses could increase by about 13%, 20% and 30% for the periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, respectively (from the four-city seasonal average of 12 ± 1.7 thousand claims and $88 ± $21 million during April-September 1992-2002). Within the context of this study, increases in the future number of insurance claims and incurred losses in the study area are driven by only increases in future heavy rainfall events.展开更多
In this paper, by analysing relationship between insurance premium and insurance compensation, the derivative assets pricing theory and the partial differential equation are used to studythe pricing of insurance produ...In this paper, by analysing relationship between insurance premium and insurance compensation, the derivative assets pricing theory and the partial differential equation are used to studythe pricing of insurance products and establish insurance price models. In addition, insurance priceformulas for several general insurance types are also presented. The insurance pricing method thatis given in the paper doesn’t depend on mortality ratio and the probability distribution of losses.It is an obvious difference between the insurance pricing method in the paper and the traditionalinsurance pricing methods. Thereby, this paper serves to develop a insurance pricing method, andhas important practical or immediate significance. Finally, the application of the method is given.展开更多
AIM To describe real-world treatment patterns of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors(GI NET).METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we used 2009-2014 data from 2 United States commercial claims databases to exa...AIM To describe real-world treatment patterns of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors(GI NET).METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we used 2009-2014 data from 2 United States commercial claims databases to examine newly pharmacologically treated patients using tabular and graphical techniques. Treatments included somatostatin analogues(SSA),cytotoxic chemotherapy(CC),targeted therapy(TT),interferon(IF) and combinations. We identified patients at least 18 years of age,with ≥ 1 inpatient or ≥ 2 outpatient claims for GI NET who initiated pharmacologic treatment from 7/1/09-6/30/14. A 6 mo clean period prior to first treatment ensured patients were newly treated. Patients were followed until end of enrollment or the study end date,whichever was first.RESULTS We identified 2258 newly treated GI NET patients: mean(SD) age was 55.6 years(SD = 9.7),47.2% of the patients were between 55 and 64 years,and 48.8% were female. All regions of the United States were represented. 59.6% started first-line therapy with SSA monotherapy(964 with octreotide LAR,380 with octreotide SA,and 1 with lanreotide),33.3% CC,3.6% TT,and 0.5% IF. The remainder received combinations. Mean follow up was 576 d. Overall mean first-line therapy duration was 361 d(449 d for SSA,215 for CC,267 for TT). 58.9% of patients had no pharmacological treatment beyond first line. The most common secondline was combination therapy with SSA. In graphical pattern analysis,there was no clear pattern visible after first line therapy.CONCLUSION In this study,60% of patients initiated treatment with SSA alone or in combination. The relatively long time to discontinuation suggests possible sustained effectiveness and tolerability.展开更多
This study presents an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts relating to a specified time. The objective of this study is to estimate the parameters in non-life insurance claim counting process, inclu...This study presents an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts relating to a specified time. The objective of this study is to estimate the parameters in non-life insurance claim counting process, including the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity. We use the estimating function, the zero mean martingale (ZMM) as a procedure of parameter estimation in the insurance claim counting process. Then, Λ(t) , the compensator of is proposed for the number of claims in the time interval . We present situations through a simulation study of both processes on the time interval . Some examples of the situations in the simulation study are depicted by a sample path relating to its compensator Λ(t). In addition, an example of the claim counting process illustrates the result of the compensator estimate misspecification.展开更多
In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions ...In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions including (the non-super- exponential) exponential claims. We prove two large deviations principles: first, we obtain the LDP for risk processes on D∈[0,1] with the Skorohod topology. In this case, we provide an explicit form for the rate function, in which the safety loading condition appears naturally. The second theorem allows us to obtain the LDP for Aggregate Claims processes on D∈[0,∞) with a different time-scale modification. As an application of the first result we estimate the ruin probability, and for the second result we work explicit calculations for the case of exponential claims.展开更多
Automobile insurance is one of the most popular research areas, and there are a lot of different methods for it .We uses linear empirical Bayesian estimation for the study of automobile insurance, giving the estimator...Automobile insurance is one of the most popular research areas, and there are a lot of different methods for it .We uses linear empirical Bayesian estimation for the study of automobile insurance, giving the estimator of the policy’s future claim size. Thus, a new point of view is given on the pricing of automobile insurance.展开更多
The aim of this study is to propose an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts related to the insurance claim counting process, including the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped in...The aim of this study is to propose an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts related to the insurance claim counting process, including the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity and a beta-shaped intensity. The estimating function, such as the zero mean martingale (ZMM), is used as a procedure for parameter estimation of the insurance claim counting process, and the parameters of model claim intensity are estimated by the Bayesian method. Then,Λ(t), the compensator of N(t) is proposed for the number of claims in a time interval (0,t]. Given the process over the time interval (0,t]., the situations are presented through a simulation study and some examples of these situations are also depicted by a sample path relating N(t) to its compensatorΛ(t).展开更多
This paper evaluated performance of motor insurance companies in Nigeria. The objectives were to determine the following: 1) significant effects of claims settlements on motor insurance firms’ earned premium;2) diffe...This paper evaluated performance of motor insurance companies in Nigeria. The objectives were to determine the following: 1) significant effects of claims settlements on motor insurance firms’ earned premium;2) differences in managerial/technological capabilities among the companies and 3) effects of policy (or time effect) on insurance firms’ output within the study </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">period. Panel data obtained for this study comprised operational data on</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> premium earned and direct claims settlement by these companies over a period </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">of six (6) years. Using panel data statistical models, we found that direct</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> claims settlement negatively affected insurance companies’ earned premium. Also, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">significant differences in technological and managerial capabilities were </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">found to exist among the companies, though only one company exhibited this heterogeneity. Besides, there were no policy impacts (or time effect) on vehicle insurance firms’ output in the study period. Policy implications of the results were discussed.展开更多
文摘The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, and Toronto) located at Ontario, Canada. To achieve this goal, the future climate change scenarios and rainfall simulations, at local scale, were needed. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five global climate model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. The downscaled meteorological variables included surface and upper-air hourly temperature, dew point, west-east and south-north winds, air pressure, and total cloud cover. These variables are necessary to project future daily rainfall quantities using within-weather-type rainfall simulation models. A model result verification process has been built into the whole exercise, including rainfall simulation modeling and the development of downscaling transfer functions. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, showed a very good agreement. To effectively evaluate heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses, a rainfall index was developed considering rainfall intensity and duration. The index was evaluated to link with insurance data as to determination of a critical threshold of the rainfall index for triggering high numbers of rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The relationship between rainfall index and insurance data was used with future rainfall simulations to project changes in future heavy rainfall-related sewer flood risks in terms of water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The modeled results showed that, averaged over the five GCM scenarios and across the study area, both the monthly total number of rainfall-related water damage claims and incurred losses could increase by about 13%, 20% and 30% for the periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, respectively (from the four-city seasonal average of 12 ± 1.7 thousand claims and $88 ± $21 million during April-September 1992-2002). Within the context of this study, increases in the future number of insurance claims and incurred losses in the study area are driven by only increases in future heavy rainfall events.
文摘In this paper, by analysing relationship between insurance premium and insurance compensation, the derivative assets pricing theory and the partial differential equation are used to studythe pricing of insurance products and establish insurance price models. In addition, insurance priceformulas for several general insurance types are also presented. The insurance pricing method thatis given in the paper doesn’t depend on mortality ratio and the probability distribution of losses.It is an obvious difference between the insurance pricing method in the paper and the traditionalinsurance pricing methods. Thereby, this paper serves to develop a insurance pricing method, andhas important practical or immediate significance. Finally, the application of the method is given.
基金Supported by Novartis Pharmaceuticals,One Health Plaza,East Hanover,No.NJ 07936-1080,United State
文摘AIM To describe real-world treatment patterns of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors(GI NET).METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we used 2009-2014 data from 2 United States commercial claims databases to examine newly pharmacologically treated patients using tabular and graphical techniques. Treatments included somatostatin analogues(SSA),cytotoxic chemotherapy(CC),targeted therapy(TT),interferon(IF) and combinations. We identified patients at least 18 years of age,with ≥ 1 inpatient or ≥ 2 outpatient claims for GI NET who initiated pharmacologic treatment from 7/1/09-6/30/14. A 6 mo clean period prior to first treatment ensured patients were newly treated. Patients were followed until end of enrollment or the study end date,whichever was first.RESULTS We identified 2258 newly treated GI NET patients: mean(SD) age was 55.6 years(SD = 9.7),47.2% of the patients were between 55 and 64 years,and 48.8% were female. All regions of the United States were represented. 59.6% started first-line therapy with SSA monotherapy(964 with octreotide LAR,380 with octreotide SA,and 1 with lanreotide),33.3% CC,3.6% TT,and 0.5% IF. The remainder received combinations. Mean follow up was 576 d. Overall mean first-line therapy duration was 361 d(449 d for SSA,215 for CC,267 for TT). 58.9% of patients had no pharmacological treatment beyond first line. The most common secondline was combination therapy with SSA. In graphical pattern analysis,there was no clear pattern visible after first line therapy.CONCLUSION In this study,60% of patients initiated treatment with SSA alone or in combination. The relatively long time to discontinuation suggests possible sustained effectiveness and tolerability.
文摘This study presents an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts relating to a specified time. The objective of this study is to estimate the parameters in non-life insurance claim counting process, including the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity. We use the estimating function, the zero mean martingale (ZMM) as a procedure of parameter estimation in the insurance claim counting process. Then, Λ(t) , the compensator of is proposed for the number of claims in the time interval . We present situations through a simulation study of both processes on the time interval . Some examples of the situations in the simulation study are depicted by a sample path relating to its compensator Λ(t). In addition, an example of the claim counting process illustrates the result of the compensator estimate misspecification.
文摘In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions including (the non-super- exponential) exponential claims. We prove two large deviations principles: first, we obtain the LDP for risk processes on D∈[0,1] with the Skorohod topology. In this case, we provide an explicit form for the rate function, in which the safety loading condition appears naturally. The second theorem allows us to obtain the LDP for Aggregate Claims processes on D∈[0,∞) with a different time-scale modification. As an application of the first result we estimate the ruin probability, and for the second result we work explicit calculations for the case of exponential claims.
文摘Automobile insurance is one of the most popular research areas, and there are a lot of different methods for it .We uses linear empirical Bayesian estimation for the study of automobile insurance, giving the estimator of the policy’s future claim size. Thus, a new point of view is given on the pricing of automobile insurance.
文摘The aim of this study is to propose an estimation approach to non-life insurance claim counts related to the insurance claim counting process, including the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a bell-shaped intensity and a beta-shaped intensity. The estimating function, such as the zero mean martingale (ZMM), is used as a procedure for parameter estimation of the insurance claim counting process, and the parameters of model claim intensity are estimated by the Bayesian method. Then,Λ(t), the compensator of N(t) is proposed for the number of claims in a time interval (0,t]. Given the process over the time interval (0,t]., the situations are presented through a simulation study and some examples of these situations are also depicted by a sample path relating N(t) to its compensatorΛ(t).
文摘This paper evaluated performance of motor insurance companies in Nigeria. The objectives were to determine the following: 1) significant effects of claims settlements on motor insurance firms’ earned premium;2) differences in managerial/technological capabilities among the companies and 3) effects of policy (or time effect) on insurance firms’ output within the study </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">period. Panel data obtained for this study comprised operational data on</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> premium earned and direct claims settlement by these companies over a period </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">of six (6) years. Using panel data statistical models, we found that direct</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> claims settlement negatively affected insurance companies’ earned premium. Also, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">significant differences in technological and managerial capabilities were </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">found to exist among the companies, though only one company exhibited this heterogeneity. Besides, there were no policy impacts (or time effect) on vehicle insurance firms’ output in the study period. Policy implications of the results were discussed.
