This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over th...This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.展开更多
To better understand the community patterns mediated by connectivity in artificial reefs of coastal areas, it is necessary to understand the distribution and coexistence of organisms with artificial reefs area and adj...To better understand the community patterns mediated by connectivity in artificial reefs of coastal areas, it is necessary to understand the distribution and coexistence of organisms with artificial reefs area and adjacent waters. This study was conducted to examine main catches assemblages collected by trawls in Haizhou Bay,which included five habitats: the artificial reef area(AR), aquaculture area(AA), natural area(NA), estuary area(EA) and comprehensive effect area(CEA). The result shows that the total abundances of species in the five habitats were highly different(univariate PERMANOVA: P = 0.001, n = 24), but some species were also unique in their habitat(e.g. Scapharca subcrenata and Glossaulax didyma in AA). The body size distribution of specific species between habitats are different. For Collichthys lucidus, their body size in AR(14.63 cm ± 1.64 cm) and EA(14.3 cm ± 0.85 cm) is higher than that in NA(10.65 cm ± 1.64 cm), CEA(11.28 cm ± 1.85 cm) and AA(12.1 cm ±0.43 cm), which indicates the potential connection from AR to EA mediated by their adult population. We concluded that artificial reefs in AR can be considered key components that have the ability to support species assemblages in adjacent habitats. This study has implications for the conservation and monitoring of species assemblages in coastal areas in terms of that artificial reefs can be applied in different stages of habitat protection implementation and in different combinations of scenarios.展开更多
Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM...Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.展开更多
This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(V...This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.展开更多
Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hotspots in the Southern Ocean that support the abundance of hightrophic-level predators and are important for carbon cycling in the high-latitude oceans.In this study,we exam...Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hotspots in the Southern Ocean that support the abundance of hightrophic-level predators and are important for carbon cycling in the high-latitude oceans.In this study,we examined the interannual variation of summertime phytoplankton biomass in the Marguerite Bay polynya(MBP)in the western Antarctic Peninsula area,and linked such variability to the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)that dominated the southern hemisphere extratropical climate variability.Combining satellite data,atmosphere reanalysis products and numerical simulations,we found that the interannual variation of summer chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration in the MBP is significantly and negatively correlated with the spring SAM index,and weakly correlated with the summer SAM index.The negative relation between summer Chl-a and spring SAM is due to weaker spring vertical mixing under a more positive SAM condition,which would inhibit the supply of iron from deep layers into the surface euphotic layer.The negative relation between spring mixing and spring SAM results from greater precipitation rate over the MBP region in positive SAM phase,which leads to lower salinity in the ocean surface layer.The coupled physical-biological mechanisms between SAM and phytoplankton biomass revealed in this study is important for us to predict the future variations of phytoplankton biomasses in Antarctic polynyas under climate change.展开更多
The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecologic...The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.展开更多
It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, whe...It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, where two states of nature are existing upon us. Any system is regarded as the two-dimensional variable error model. On the other hand, we consider that the fuzziness is existing in this system. Though we can usually obtain the fuzzy number from the possibility theory, it is not fuzzy but possibility, because the possibility function is as same as the likelihood function, and we can obtain the possibility measure by the maximal likelihood method (i.e. max product method proposed by Dr. Hideo Tanaka). Therefore, Fuzzy is regarded as the only one case according to Vague, which has both some state of nature in this world and another state of nature in the other world. Here, we can consider that Type 1 Vague Event in other world can be obtained by mapping and translating from Type 1 fuzzy Event in this world. We named this estimation as Type 1 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. When the Vague Events were abnormal (ex. under War), we need to consider that another world could exist around other world. In this case, we call it Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. Where Hori et al. constructed the stochastic different equation upon Type 1 Vague Events, along with the general following probabilistic introduction method from the single regression model, multi-regression model, AR model, Markov (decision) process, to the stochastic different equation. Furthermore, we showed that the system theory approach is Possibility Markov Process, and that the making decision approach is Sequential Bayes Estimation, too. After all, Type 1 Bays-Fuzzy estimation is the special case in Bayes estimation, because the pareto solutions can exist in two stochastic different equations upon Type 2 Vague Events, after we ignore one equation each other (note that this is Type 1 case), we can obtain both its system solution and its decision solution. Here, it is noted that Type 2 Vague estimation can be applied to the shallow abnormal decision problem with possibility reserved judgement. However, it is very important problem that we can have no idea for possibility reserved judgement under the deepest abnormal envelopment (ex. under War). Expect for this deepest abnormal decision problem, Bayes estimation can completely cover fuzzy estimation. In this paper, we explain our flowing study and further research object forward to this deepest abnormal decision problem.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42288101)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK010201-02)+4 种基金GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515010945)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20060503)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92158204,42176026,42005035,41906181)Lei YANG is also supported by Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province(2022B1212050003)Special fund of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SCSIO2023QY01).
文摘This study investigates the activity of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the Bay of Bengal(BOB)from 1979 to 2018 to discover the mechanism affecting the contribution rate to the meridional moisture budget anomaly(MMBA)over the southern boundary of the Tibetan Plateau(SBTP).May and October–December are the bimodal phases of BOB TC frequency,which decreases month by month from October to December and is relatively low in May.However,the contribution rate to the MMBA is the highest in May.The seasonal variation in the meridional position of the westerlies is the key factor affecting the contribution rate.The relatively southern(northern)position of the westerlies in November and December(May)results in a lower(higher)contribution rate to the MMBA.This mechanism is confirmed by the momentum equation.When water vapor enters the westerlies near the trough line,the resultant meridional acceleration is directed north.It follows that the farther north the trough is,and the farther north the water vapor can be transported.When water vapor enters the westerlies from the area near the ridge line,for Type-T(Type-R)TCs,water vapor enters the westerlies downstream of the trough(ridge).Consequently,the direction of the resultant meridional acceleration is directed south and the resultant zonal acceleration is directed east(west),which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor.This is especially the case if the trough or ridge is relatively south,as the water vapor may not cross the SBTP.
基金The China Scholarship Council under contract No.202308310175the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under contract No.E-6005-00-0042-39+6 种基金Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF under contract No. GZC20231539the Jiangsu Haizhou Bay National Sea Ranching Demonstration Project under contract No. D–8005–18–0188Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission Local Capacity Construction Project under contract No. 21010502200the Science Foundation for Youths of Jiangsu ProvinceChina under contract No. BK20170438the Science and Technology Projects in Nantong under contract No. JC2018014the Social Livelihood Key Projects of Nantong under contract No. MS22021015。
文摘To better understand the community patterns mediated by connectivity in artificial reefs of coastal areas, it is necessary to understand the distribution and coexistence of organisms with artificial reefs area and adjacent waters. This study was conducted to examine main catches assemblages collected by trawls in Haizhou Bay,which included five habitats: the artificial reef area(AR), aquaculture area(AA), natural area(NA), estuary area(EA) and comprehensive effect area(CEA). The result shows that the total abundances of species in the five habitats were highly different(univariate PERMANOVA: P = 0.001, n = 24), but some species were also unique in their habitat(e.g. Scapharca subcrenata and Glossaulax didyma in AA). The body size distribution of specific species between habitats are different. For Collichthys lucidus, their body size in AR(14.63 cm ± 1.64 cm) and EA(14.3 cm ± 0.85 cm) is higher than that in NA(10.65 cm ± 1.64 cm), CEA(11.28 cm ± 1.85 cm) and AA(12.1 cm ±0.43 cm), which indicates the potential connection from AR to EA mediated by their adult population. We concluded that artificial reefs in AR can be considered key components that have the ability to support species assemblages in adjacent habitats. This study has implications for the conservation and monitoring of species assemblages in coastal areas in terms of that artificial reefs can be applied in different stages of habitat protection implementation and in different combinations of scenarios.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284).
文摘Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.
基金supported by the research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodology,and Environmental Economic Policies(No.42076221).
文摘This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.
基金The Key Research&Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China under contract No.2022YFC2807601the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41941008 and 41876221+3 种基金the Fund of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee under contract Nos 20230711100 and 21QA1404300the Impact and Response of Antarctic Seas to Climate Change funded by the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration under contract No.IRASCC 1-02-01Bthe National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2019YFC1509102the Shanghai Pilot Program for Basic Research—Shanghai Jiao Tong University under contract No.21TQ1400201。
文摘Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hotspots in the Southern Ocean that support the abundance of hightrophic-level predators and are important for carbon cycling in the high-latitude oceans.In this study,we examined the interannual variation of summertime phytoplankton biomass in the Marguerite Bay polynya(MBP)in the western Antarctic Peninsula area,and linked such variability to the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)that dominated the southern hemisphere extratropical climate variability.Combining satellite data,atmosphere reanalysis products and numerical simulations,we found that the interannual variation of summer chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration in the MBP is significantly and negatively correlated with the spring SAM index,and weakly correlated with the summer SAM index.The negative relation between summer Chl-a and spring SAM is due to weaker spring vertical mixing under a more positive SAM condition,which would inhibit the supply of iron from deep layers into the surface euphotic layer.The negative relation between spring mixing and spring SAM results from greater precipitation rate over the MBP region in positive SAM phase,which leads to lower salinity in the ocean surface layer.The coupled physical-biological mechanisms between SAM and phytoplankton biomass revealed in this study is important for us to predict the future variations of phytoplankton biomasses in Antarctic polynyas under climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41602205, 42293261)the China Geological Survey Program (DD20189506, DD20211301)+2 种基金the Special Investigation Project on Science and Technology Basic Resources of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2021FY101003)the Central Guidance for Local Scientific and Technological Development Fund of 2023the Project of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering (GCY202301)
文摘The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.
文摘It is well known that the system (1 + 1) can be unequal to 2, because this system has both observation error and system error. Furthermore, we must provide our mustered service within our cool head and warm heart, where two states of nature are existing upon us. Any system is regarded as the two-dimensional variable error model. On the other hand, we consider that the fuzziness is existing in this system. Though we can usually obtain the fuzzy number from the possibility theory, it is not fuzzy but possibility, because the possibility function is as same as the likelihood function, and we can obtain the possibility measure by the maximal likelihood method (i.e. max product method proposed by Dr. Hideo Tanaka). Therefore, Fuzzy is regarded as the only one case according to Vague, which has both some state of nature in this world and another state of nature in the other world. Here, we can consider that Type 1 Vague Event in other world can be obtained by mapping and translating from Type 1 fuzzy Event in this world. We named this estimation as Type 1 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. When the Vague Events were abnormal (ex. under War), we need to consider that another world could exist around other world. In this case, we call it Type 2 Bayes-Fuzzy Estimation. Where Hori et al. constructed the stochastic different equation upon Type 1 Vague Events, along with the general following probabilistic introduction method from the single regression model, multi-regression model, AR model, Markov (decision) process, to the stochastic different equation. Furthermore, we showed that the system theory approach is Possibility Markov Process, and that the making decision approach is Sequential Bayes Estimation, too. After all, Type 1 Bays-Fuzzy estimation is the special case in Bayes estimation, because the pareto solutions can exist in two stochastic different equations upon Type 2 Vague Events, after we ignore one equation each other (note that this is Type 1 case), we can obtain both its system solution and its decision solution. Here, it is noted that Type 2 Vague estimation can be applied to the shallow abnormal decision problem with possibility reserved judgement. However, it is very important problem that we can have no idea for possibility reserved judgement under the deepest abnormal envelopment (ex. under War). Expect for this deepest abnormal decision problem, Bayes estimation can completely cover fuzzy estimation. In this paper, we explain our flowing study and further research object forward to this deepest abnormal decision problem.