Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.F...Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.Foreign oil companies might change their unfavorable negotiating position by changing the order of bidding and adjusting bidding strategies.This paper introduces both factors into a bilateral bargaining model to study the impact of information asymmetry and bidding order on the strategy and equilibrium returns of oil companies.According to the ownership of the right to bid first,two scenarios are designed for the model to compare the equilibrium returns of the host country and oil companies.The results show that:1)There is a first-mover advantage in the process of bilateral bidding,so oil companies better bid first;2)The information asymmetry will lead to a higher nominal income ratio of oil companies and a lower nominal income ratio of the host country,but it doesn’t affect the total income ratio at all.展开更多
BACKGROUND: Electrical stimulation kindling model, having epilepsy-inducing and spontaneous seizure and other advantages, is a very ideal experimental animal model. But the kindling effect might be different at differ...BACKGROUND: Electrical stimulation kindling model, having epilepsy-inducing and spontaneous seizure and other advantages, is a very ideal experimental animal model. But the kindling effect might be different at different sites. OBJECTIVE: To compare the features of animal models of complex partial epilepsy established through unilateral, bilateral and alternate-side kindling at hippocampus and successful rate of modeling among these 3 different ways. DESIGN: A randomized and controlled animal experiment. SETTING: Department of Neurology, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University. MATERIALS: Totally 60 healthy adult Wistar rats, weighing 200 to 300 g, of either gender, were used in this experiment. BL-410 biological functional experimental system (Taimeng Science and Technology Co.Ltd, Chengdu) and SE-7102 type electronic stimulator (Guangdian Company, Japan) were used in the experiment. METHODS: This experiment was carried out in the Experimental Animal Center of Shandong University from April to June 2004. After rats were anesthetized, electrode was implanted into the hippocampus. From the first day of measurement of afterdischarge threshold value, rats were given two-square-wave suprathreshold stimulation once per day with 400 μA intensity, 1ms wave length, 60 Hz frequency for 1 s duration. Left hippocampus was stimulated in unilateral kindling group, bilateral hippocampi were stimulated in bilateral kindling group, and left and right hippocampi were stimulated alternately every day in the alternate-side kindling group. Seizure intensity was scored: grade 0: normal, 1: wet dog-like shivering, facial spasm, such as, winking, touching the beard, rhythmic chewing and so on; 2: rhythmic nodding; 3: forelimb spasm;4: standing accompanied by bilateral forelimb spasm;5: tumbling, losing balance, four limbs spasm. Modeling was successful when seizure intensity reached grade 5. t test was used for the comparison of mean value between two samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of the successful rate of modeling, the times of stimulation to reach intensity of grade 5, the lasting time of seizure of grade 3 of rats in each group. RESULTS: Four rats of alternate-side kindling group dropped out due to infection-induced electrode loss, and 56 rats were involved in the result analysis. The successful rate of unilateral kindling group, bilateral kindling group and alternate-side kindling group was 55%(11/20),100%(16/16)and 100%(20/20), respectively. The stimuli to reach the grade 5 spasm were significantly more in the bilateral kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(30.63±3.48),(19.36±3.47)times,t=8.268,P < 0.01], and those were significantly fewer in the alternate-side kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(10.85±1.98)times,t=8.744,P < 0.01]. The duration of grade 3 spasm was significantly longer in the bilateral kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(9.75±2.59),(3.21 ±1.58)days,t=8.183,P < 0.01]. Among 20 successful rats of alternate-side kindling group, grade 5 spasm was found in the left hippocampi of 11 rats, but grade 3 spasm in their right hippocampi; Grade 5 spasm was found in the right hippocampi of the other 9 rats, grade 4 spasm in the left hippocampus of 1 rat and grade 3 of 8 rats. CONCLUSION: The speed of establishing epilepsy seizure model by alternate-side kindling is faster than that by unilateral kindling, while that by bilateral kindling is slower than that by unilateral kindling. The successful rate is very high to establish complex partial epilepsy with alternate-side or bilateral kindling. Epilepsy seizure established by alternate-side kindling has antagonistic effect of kindling and the seizure duration of grade 3 spasm is prolonged.展开更多
The spirit of now in nowcasting suggests expanding the current to include the near future.Decision theory is then developed by incorporating the consequences of actions into the present.With the future falling into th...The spirit of now in nowcasting suggests expanding the current to include the near future.Decision theory is then developed by incorporating the consequences of actions into the present.With the future falling into the present discounting it is no longer permitted.Value functions are then observed to be determinate only up to scale and shift that are then locked down by fixing values arbitrarily in two selected states,much like declaring water to freeze and boil at zero and a hundred degrees celsius.The locked down value functions associated policy functions are seen to exist in decision contexts in where the only time is now.Examples are studied in univariate and multivariate dimensions for the decision state space and the dimension of shocks delivering state transitions.The policy functions are expanded from realisitic training sets to the full state space using Gaussian Process Regression.They are implemented on real data with reported performances.展开更多
Modeling of uncertainty by probability errs by ignoring the uncertainty in probability.When financial valuation recognizes the uncertainty of probability,the best the market may offer is a two price framework of a low...Modeling of uncertainty by probability errs by ignoring the uncertainty in probability.When financial valuation recognizes the uncertainty of probability,the best the market may offer is a two price framework of a lower and upper valuation.The martingale theory of asset prices is then replaced by the theory of nonlinear martingales.When dealing with pure jump compensators describing probability,the uncertainty in probability is captured by introducing parametric measure distortions.The two price framework then alters asset pricing theory by requiring two required return equations,one each for the lower upper valuation.Proxying lower and upper valuations by daily lows and highs,the paper delivers the first empirical study of nonlinear martingales via the modeling and simultaneous estimation of the two required return equations.展开更多
基金the financial support provided by the Humanities and Social Sciences Program of Chinese Ministry of Education(Grant Nos.19YJCZH106 and 20YJCZH201)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71904111 and 71774105)Program for the Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi(Grant No.201803079,2nd[2018]of Jin Education)。
文摘Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.Foreign oil companies might change their unfavorable negotiating position by changing the order of bidding and adjusting bidding strategies.This paper introduces both factors into a bilateral bargaining model to study the impact of information asymmetry and bidding order on the strategy and equilibrium returns of oil companies.According to the ownership of the right to bid first,two scenarios are designed for the model to compare the equilibrium returns of the host country and oil companies.The results show that:1)There is a first-mover advantage in the process of bilateral bidding,so oil companies better bid first;2)The information asymmetry will lead to a higher nominal income ratio of oil companies and a lower nominal income ratio of the host country,but it doesn’t affect the total income ratio at all.
文摘BACKGROUND: Electrical stimulation kindling model, having epilepsy-inducing and spontaneous seizure and other advantages, is a very ideal experimental animal model. But the kindling effect might be different at different sites. OBJECTIVE: To compare the features of animal models of complex partial epilepsy established through unilateral, bilateral and alternate-side kindling at hippocampus and successful rate of modeling among these 3 different ways. DESIGN: A randomized and controlled animal experiment. SETTING: Department of Neurology, Qilu Hospital, Shandong University. MATERIALS: Totally 60 healthy adult Wistar rats, weighing 200 to 300 g, of either gender, were used in this experiment. BL-410 biological functional experimental system (Taimeng Science and Technology Co.Ltd, Chengdu) and SE-7102 type electronic stimulator (Guangdian Company, Japan) were used in the experiment. METHODS: This experiment was carried out in the Experimental Animal Center of Shandong University from April to June 2004. After rats were anesthetized, electrode was implanted into the hippocampus. From the first day of measurement of afterdischarge threshold value, rats were given two-square-wave suprathreshold stimulation once per day with 400 μA intensity, 1ms wave length, 60 Hz frequency for 1 s duration. Left hippocampus was stimulated in unilateral kindling group, bilateral hippocampi were stimulated in bilateral kindling group, and left and right hippocampi were stimulated alternately every day in the alternate-side kindling group. Seizure intensity was scored: grade 0: normal, 1: wet dog-like shivering, facial spasm, such as, winking, touching the beard, rhythmic chewing and so on; 2: rhythmic nodding; 3: forelimb spasm;4: standing accompanied by bilateral forelimb spasm;5: tumbling, losing balance, four limbs spasm. Modeling was successful when seizure intensity reached grade 5. t test was used for the comparison of mean value between two samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of the successful rate of modeling, the times of stimulation to reach intensity of grade 5, the lasting time of seizure of grade 3 of rats in each group. RESULTS: Four rats of alternate-side kindling group dropped out due to infection-induced electrode loss, and 56 rats were involved in the result analysis. The successful rate of unilateral kindling group, bilateral kindling group and alternate-side kindling group was 55%(11/20),100%(16/16)and 100%(20/20), respectively. The stimuli to reach the grade 5 spasm were significantly more in the bilateral kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(30.63±3.48),(19.36±3.47)times,t=8.268,P < 0.01], and those were significantly fewer in the alternate-side kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(10.85±1.98)times,t=8.744,P < 0.01]. The duration of grade 3 spasm was significantly longer in the bilateral kindling group than in the unilateral kindling group [(9.75±2.59),(3.21 ±1.58)days,t=8.183,P < 0.01]. Among 20 successful rats of alternate-side kindling group, grade 5 spasm was found in the left hippocampi of 11 rats, but grade 3 spasm in their right hippocampi; Grade 5 spasm was found in the right hippocampi of the other 9 rats, grade 4 spasm in the left hippocampus of 1 rat and grade 3 of 8 rats. CONCLUSION: The speed of establishing epilepsy seizure model by alternate-side kindling is faster than that by unilateral kindling, while that by bilateral kindling is slower than that by unilateral kindling. The successful rate is very high to establish complex partial epilepsy with alternate-side or bilateral kindling. Epilepsy seizure established by alternate-side kindling has antagonistic effect of kindling and the seizure duration of grade 3 spasm is prolonged.
文摘The spirit of now in nowcasting suggests expanding the current to include the near future.Decision theory is then developed by incorporating the consequences of actions into the present.With the future falling into the present discounting it is no longer permitted.Value functions are then observed to be determinate only up to scale and shift that are then locked down by fixing values arbitrarily in two selected states,much like declaring water to freeze and boil at zero and a hundred degrees celsius.The locked down value functions associated policy functions are seen to exist in decision contexts in where the only time is now.Examples are studied in univariate and multivariate dimensions for the decision state space and the dimension of shocks delivering state transitions.The policy functions are expanded from realisitic training sets to the full state space using Gaussian Process Regression.They are implemented on real data with reported performances.
基金Received 15 October 2021Accepted 16 March 2022Early access 25 March 2022。
文摘Modeling of uncertainty by probability errs by ignoring the uncertainty in probability.When financial valuation recognizes the uncertainty of probability,the best the market may offer is a two price framework of a lower and upper valuation.The martingale theory of asset prices is then replaced by the theory of nonlinear martingales.When dealing with pure jump compensators describing probability,the uncertainty in probability is captured by introducing parametric measure distortions.The two price framework then alters asset pricing theory by requiring two required return equations,one each for the lower upper valuation.Proxying lower and upper valuations by daily lows and highs,the paper delivers the first empirical study of nonlinear martingales via the modeling and simultaneous estimation of the two required return equations.
