Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open in...Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open interest, another candidate in the margin rule, is also included in our model to investigate its necessity as one of the factors of the rise of margin rates. With the popular copper contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange （ SHFE）, our test results suggest that margin levels have a significant positive effect on volatility, yet open interest has little to do with volatility. The implication is that the rise of margin rate approaching maturity virtually deteriorates the degree of market risks, and open interest is not a necessary factor for the margin rule. It indicates that the policy tool, represented by margin rates, has significantly greater influence on volatility than the market element, represented by open interest.展开更多
No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are m...No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005, Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbi- trage can be realized, There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.展开更多
Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange(LME)...Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange(LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange(SHFE) ,however,possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper,wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n(n=1,…,6) frequency bands through wavelet mul-tiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale,but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.展开更多
文摘Different from western markets, the margin rates in Chinese futures markets are raised when contract approaches maturity. This paper concentrates on the effect of this time dependent margin rule on volatility. Open interest, another candidate in the margin rule, is also included in our model to investigate its necessity as one of the factors of the rise of margin rates. With the popular copper contract in Shanghai Futures Exchange （ SHFE）, our test results suggest that margin levels have a significant positive effect on volatility, yet open interest has little to do with volatility. The implication is that the rise of margin rate approaching maturity virtually deteriorates the degree of market risks, and open interest is not a necessary factor for the margin rule. It indicates that the policy tool, represented by margin rates, has significantly greater influence on volatility than the market element, represented by open interest.
基金National Natural Science Foundation ofChina (No.70331001)
文摘No-arbitrage bound is established with no-arbitrage theory considering all kinds of trade costs, different deposit and loan interest rate, margin and tax in futures markets. The empirical results find that there are many lower bound arbitrage opportunities in China copper futures market from August 8th, 2003 to August 16th, 2005, Concretely, no-arbitrage opportunity is dominant and lower bound arbitrage is narrow in normal market segment. Lower bound arbitrage almost always exists with huge magnitude in inverted market segment. There is basically no-arbitrage in normal market because spot volume is enough, so that upper or lower bound arbi- trage can be realized, There is mostly lower bound arbitrage in inverted market because spot volume is lack.
文摘Research on information spillover effects between financial markets remains active in the economic community. A Granger-type model has recently been used to investigate the spillover between London Metal Exchange(LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange(SHFE) ,however,possible correlation between the future price and return on different time scales have been ignored. In this paper,wavelet multiresolution decomposition is used to investigate the spillover effects of copper future returns between the two markets. The daily return time series are decomposed on 2n(n=1,…,6) frequency bands through wavelet mul-tiresolution analysis. The correlation between the two markets is studied with decomposed data. It is shown that high frequency detail components represent much more energy than low-frequency smooth components. The relation between copper future daily returns in LME and that in SHFE are different on different time scales. The fluctuations of the copper future daily returns in LME have large effect on that in SHFE in 32-day scale,but small effect in high frequency scales. It also has evidence that strong effects exist between LME and SHFE for monthly responses of the copper futures but not for daily responses.
