In order to determine the design tide levels in the areas without measured tide level data, especially in the areas where it is difficult to measure tidal levels, a calculation method based on a numerical model of tid...In order to determine the design tide levels in the areas without measured tide level data, especially in the areas where it is difficult to measure tidal levels, a calculation method based on a numerical model of tidal current is proposed. The essentials of the method are described, and its application is illustrated with an example. The results of the application show that the design tide levels calculated by the method are close to those determined by long-time measured tide level data, and its calculation precision is high, so it is feasible to use the method to determine the design tide levels in the areas.展开更多
为研究全球变暖和人类活动大背景中台风影响下的多年一遇潮位设计值是否发生改变,本文针对鲗鱼涌站台风暴潮过程极值序列,对基于年极值数据的非一致性广义可加模型(Generalized additive models for location,scale and shape,GAMLSS)...为研究全球变暖和人类活动大背景中台风影响下的多年一遇潮位设计值是否发生改变,本文针对鲗鱼涌站台风暴潮过程极值序列,对基于年极值数据的非一致性广义可加模型(Generalized additive models for location,scale and shape,GAMLSS)进行了改进,提出了非一致性条件下的泊松复合极值分布模型,并分别采用一致性设计值计算方法、期望超过次数(Expected number of exceedances,ENE)法、设计年限水平(Design life level,DLL)法、等可靠度(Equal reliability,ER)法和设计年限平均值(Average design life level,ADLL)法,计算了潮位设计值。研究表明,非一致方法计算的潮位设计值高于一致性方法计算的潮位设计值,且ER法和ADLL法适用性更广,可为海岸防灾减灾提供指导。展开更多
针对G um be l分布,考虑了连续样本及非连续样本两种情况,采用M on te-C arlo模拟分析技术,对海港工程设计潮位计算中的矩法(M OM)、最小二乘法(L-S)以及目前流行的线性矩法(L-M)进行了比较研究,同时采用沿海9个潮位站的资料进行了验证...针对G um be l分布,考虑了连续样本及非连续样本两种情况,采用M on te-C arlo模拟分析技术,对海港工程设计潮位计算中的矩法(M OM)、最小二乘法(L-S)以及目前流行的线性矩法(L-M)进行了比较研究,同时采用沿海9个潮位站的资料进行了验证计算。结果表明,与M OM法和L-S法相比,L-M法具有最优的统计性能,建议为工程设计所采用;现有规范推荐的最小二乘法偏于安全,但对不连续系列或当总体分布参数Cv较小时,亦能提供较合理的设计成果。展开更多
基金The National Key Fundamental Research and Development Program ("973" Program) of China under contract No. 2010CB429001
文摘In order to determine the design tide levels in the areas without measured tide level data, especially in the areas where it is difficult to measure tidal levels, a calculation method based on a numerical model of tidal current is proposed. The essentials of the method are described, and its application is illustrated with an example. The results of the application show that the design tide levels calculated by the method are close to those determined by long-time measured tide level data, and its calculation precision is high, so it is feasible to use the method to determine the design tide levels in the areas.
文摘为研究全球变暖和人类活动大背景中台风影响下的多年一遇潮位设计值是否发生改变,本文针对鲗鱼涌站台风暴潮过程极值序列,对基于年极值数据的非一致性广义可加模型(Generalized additive models for location,scale and shape,GAMLSS)进行了改进,提出了非一致性条件下的泊松复合极值分布模型,并分别采用一致性设计值计算方法、期望超过次数(Expected number of exceedances,ENE)法、设计年限水平(Design life level,DLL)法、等可靠度(Equal reliability,ER)法和设计年限平均值(Average design life level,ADLL)法,计算了潮位设计值。研究表明,非一致方法计算的潮位设计值高于一致性方法计算的潮位设计值,且ER法和ADLL法适用性更广,可为海岸防灾减灾提供指导。
文摘针对G um be l分布,考虑了连续样本及非连续样本两种情况,采用M on te-C arlo模拟分析技术,对海港工程设计潮位计算中的矩法(M OM)、最小二乘法(L-S)以及目前流行的线性矩法(L-M)进行了比较研究,同时采用沿海9个潮位站的资料进行了验证计算。结果表明,与M OM法和L-S法相比,L-M法具有最优的统计性能,建议为工程设计所采用;现有规范推荐的最小二乘法偏于安全,但对不连续系列或当总体分布参数Cv较小时,亦能提供较合理的设计成果。
