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Research on the Application of Meteorological Disaster Losses Assessment Technology 被引量:5
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作者 杨仕贤 杨丽琼 张好艳 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第4期97-101,共5页
According to the influence degree of meteorological disaster,we analyzed the existing deficiencies in hazard assessment,proposed the fuzzy evaluation method of quantitative assessment.The casualties caused by meteorol... According to the influence degree of meteorological disaster,we analyzed the existing deficiencies in hazard assessment,proposed the fuzzy evaluation method of quantitative assessment.The casualties caused by meteorological disasters and ecological damages to the environment,direct economic losses,efficiency losses,rescue losses,reconstruction and other assessment indices were converted into more accurate indicators of losses indexes.The quantitative formula of the meteorological disasters damage assessment was summarized.The disasters damage grades and damage indexes were used as the relative assessment indices of meteorological disaster losses.Finally,a damage assessment application example was given to verify the validity of the assessment methods. 展开更多
关键词 Meteorological disasters Assessment technique disaster indexes disaster damage levels China
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The Application of a Grey Markov Model to Forecasting Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hydrological Stations 被引量:12
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作者 DONG Sheng CHI Kun +1 位作者 ZHANG Qiyi ZHANG Xiangdong 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2012年第1期13-17,共5页
Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Marko... Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper. 展开更多
关键词 Grey Markov Model forecasting estuary disaster prevention maximum water level
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