By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies...By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,展开更多
China＇s first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China＇s ...China＇s first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China＇s participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.展开更多
The State Council conducted researches and deployed measures to further expand domestic demand to facilitate steadfast economic growth, as well as nailed down ten measures, which will invest in a total of RMB four tri...The State Council conducted researches and deployed measures to further expand domestic demand to facilitate steadfast economic growth, as well as nailed down ten measures, which will invest in a total of RMB four trillion Yuan till the end of 2010 to stimulate domestic demand. Following that, the State Council issued six policies and measures to promote sound development of the light industry and other industries, like textile industry. This enables us to see the determination and action of the government in combating the financial storm and developing the social economy. Meanwhile, it is a good news to the textile industry in unfavorable situation, which can be deemed as an unprecedented powerful policy supports. Absolutely, this will bring a opportunity to China's textile industry. Therefore, we pick out items closely interrelated to the textile industry from the "10+6" policy for elaboration, so as to work out how we shall take full advantage of the supports. Wherein, the ten measures to expand domestic demand do not directly target the textile industry, but they will, with the implementation of various policies and investments, surely drive domestic demand to grow, and contribute to the growth of textile industry.展开更多
Addressing the prolonged stagnation in household consumption growth in China is crucial for the successful implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand.By constructing the upgrading index of consumption st...Addressing the prolonged stagnation in household consumption growth in China is crucial for the successful implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand.By constructing the upgrading index of consumption structure from 2002 to 2018,it is found that the overall upgrading trend of household consumption structure in China is accelerated after 2014.Theoretical analysis and empirical results indicate that,as household consumption structures rapidly upgrade with rising incomes in China,the primary factor limiting reasonable growth in household consumption is the insufficient effective supply resulting from a mismatch between the supply structure and the demand structure.As the adjustment of the supply structure depends on the continuous optimization of investment flow,expanding effective investment is the key driving force to improve effective supply,and it is also the existing component of expanding domestic demand.Further research shows that weakening investment convergence can significantly alleviate the insufficient effective supply caused by consumption upgrading.Enhancing the scientific anticipation of policy regulations and increasing the effectiveness of investments will be beneficial for realizing the strategy of expanding domestic demand.展开更多
This paper explores, from the perspective of general equilibrium, the relationship between urbanizing migrant workers and increasing domestic demand. Why should China adopt the strategy of relying on domestic demand t...This paper explores, from the perspective of general equilibrium, the relationship between urbanizing migrant workers and increasing domestic demand. Why should China adopt the strategy of relying on domestic demand to develop its economy？ Countering the impact of declining external demand is only a temporary reason for doing so, and the more fundamental reason is the need to change the ＂dual imbalance＂ in today’s economy： the imbalance between internal and external economic arrangements and the industry structural imbalance, as well as the need to take full advantage of the domestic market to achieve the goal of industrialization. The latent consumption demand of migrant workers will be fully released if realistic measures are taken to accelerate the pace of turning migrant workers into urban residents. This will help neutralize the negative impact of reduced external demand, as well as rectifying the structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and upgrading China’s industrialization and urbanization.展开更多
China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage o...China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.展开更多
China can invigorate its economy by expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption chinese bankers are preparing to set up finance companies that provide consumer loans in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) continued to rise, but has slowed down since March. Although the country’s producer price index (PPI) scored new highs for months, international commodity prices fell substantially...China’s consumer price index (CPI) continued to rise, but has slowed down since March. Although the country’s producer price index (PPI) scored new highs for months, international commodity prices fell substantially. But the Gross Domestic Product deflator, another important index which measures the change in prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy, indicates that the CPI’s slowdown has not yet brought any relief from inflation in the country. Will China soon see the end of inflation, or was it just a breather before another inflationary peak? The 21st Century Business Herald, a business newspaper published semiweekly, interviewed Huo Deming, an economics professor at the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, for some insights.展开更多
The slower expansion of domestic demand has put pressure on economic growth as the Chinese economy enters a new normal stage. Since the industrial structure can only be effectively upgraded through appropriately expan...The slower expansion of domestic demand has put pressure on economic growth as the Chinese economy enters a new normal stage. Since the industrial structure can only be effectively upgraded through appropriately expanding aggregate demand, three relationships must be balanced:展开更多
Under the background of China's accelerating high-quality development,whether expanding domestic demand can promote the improvement of the core competitiveness of local enterprises is still lacking support of theo...Under the background of China's accelerating high-quality development,whether expanding domestic demand can promote the improvement of the core competitiveness of local enterprises is still lacking support of theoretical and empirical evidence.Using micro-data at the level of Chinese industrial enterprises,this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism and effect of domestic market demand on the enhancement of local enterprises'core competitiveness.The research shows the following three findings.First,domestic market demand will help local enterprises to increase investment in R&D and design and brand marketing,so as to promote value-added activities to shift from tangible activities in production to intangible activities before and after production,thereby improving their own core competitiveness.Second,further deconstructing market competition factors from the perspective of ownership shows that,driven by domestic market demand,non-state-owned enterprises can enhance their core competitiveness better than state-owned enterprises.Third,China's regional industrial distribution and development have the typical echelon characteristics,which leads to the geographical heterogeneity of the promotion effect of domestic market demand on the local enterprises to enhance their core competitiveness,showing a ladder-type declining trend from the east to the middle and then to the west.These findings provide a useful decision-making reference for better implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand under the background of accelerating the construction of a new developmentpattern.展开更多
In recent years,the changes in the external environment and domestic development conditions have promoted the transformation of China's economy to one dominated by domestic circulation.In December 2020,the Communi...In recent years,the changes in the external environment and domestic development conditions have promoted the transformation of China's economy to one dominated by domestic circulation.In December 2020,the Communist Party of China Central Committee put forward the demand-side reform for the first time in order to prepare China for the new development stage of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)and to promote the new strategic deployment of China's high-quality development.Based on the paths and direction of the current 14thFive-YearPlan(2021-2015)tobuild a new development pattern,this paper elaborates on the theoretical connotations of the demand-side reform,points out the bottlenecks such as the unreasonable demand structure in China,the mismatch between the industrial system and the high-level demand,the resulting demand spillovers,the poor demand channels,and puts forward the current approaches to thedemand-sideereform in China.展开更多
China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especial...China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.展开更多
Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-or...Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-oriented＂ economy. China＇s trade imbalance in the global economy is merely a result of economic disparities between the world＇s more- and less- developed regions combined with the rational optimization of resources. The current situation, wherein China appears to be heavily export-oriented, stems naturally from the real economy moving towards a dynamic equilibrium against a backdrop of economic globalization and deepening international specialization. We have concluded that domestic consumption and external demand reinforce each other, and the development of an open economy in China is therefore not at odds with expanding domestic consumption.展开更多
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the quality of China's economic development has been continuously improved.However,the year 2022 witnessed a subdued economic growth rate.The t...Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the quality of China's economic development has been continuously improved.However,the year 2022 witnessed a subdued economic growth rate.The triple pressures continue to evolve,with contraction in demand as the primary contradiction facing China's macro economy in the short term.In contrast to major economies in the world,China grapples with a low economic growth-inflation index combination,a pace of economic expansion trailing behind its potential,and a mounting unemployment rate.The impact of supply on price increases weakens,while the global industrial and supply chains are amidst continuous adjustments.Both the consumer confidence index(Ccl)and the purchasing managers'index(PMl)remain low.The expectation for the depreciation of the RMB against US dollar is weakening.In 2023,China will continue to improve the financing environment and carry out a proactive fiscal policy.Simultaneously,there is a moderation trend in the trajectory of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System hikes.Taken together,these factors(triple pressures)are expected to mitigate the contraction in demand,thereby steering the economy toward robust growth.However,it is crucial to recognize that low economic growth in the long term may compromise the quality of economic development.The year 2023 is the first year of accelerating Chinese modernization after the 2Oth National Congress of the CPC.China should integrate the strategy to expand internal demand with its efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform.This can foster the coordinated growth of both economic quality and speed,making a good start for Chinese modernization.展开更多
Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To fig...Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.展开更多
In this paper, we use 2002-2008 International Standard Industry Classification two-digit bilateral trade paneI data for manufacturing industries in China and the OECD countries to test for the existence of home market...In this paper, we use 2002-2008 International Standard Industry Classification two-digit bilateral trade paneI data for manufacturing industries in China and the OECD countries to test for the existence of home market effects. We find that significant home market effects exist in 8 out of 12 industries. These industries include the food, beverage and tobacco industry, wood products, the paper products and printing industry, chemical products, other non- metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, transport equipment, and miscellaneous products and waste resources recycling industry. Textile, clothing and leather manufacturing, oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing, rubber andplastics, and basic metals and fabricated metal products industries do not exhibit home market effects. Indeed, strong reverse home market effects occur for oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing and for the rubber and plastics industry. The empirical results reveal that certain industries benefit from new export opportunities due to the expansion of domestic demand in China.展开更多
Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular g...Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.展开更多
文摘By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,
文摘China＇s first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China＇s participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.
文摘The State Council conducted researches and deployed measures to further expand domestic demand to facilitate steadfast economic growth, as well as nailed down ten measures, which will invest in a total of RMB four trillion Yuan till the end of 2010 to stimulate domestic demand. Following that, the State Council issued six policies and measures to promote sound development of the light industry and other industries, like textile industry. This enables us to see the determination and action of the government in combating the financial storm and developing the social economy. Meanwhile, it is a good news to the textile industry in unfavorable situation, which can be deemed as an unprecedented powerful policy supports. Absolutely, this will bring a opportunity to China's textile industry. Therefore, we pick out items closely interrelated to the textile industry from the "10+6" policy for elaboration, so as to work out how we shall take full advantage of the supports. Wherein, the ten measures to expand domestic demand do not directly target the textile industry, but they will, with the implementation of various policies and investments, surely drive domestic demand to grow, and contribute to the growth of textile industry.
基金the Major Project funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.21ZDA037)Ministry of Education's Humanities and Social Sciences Research Program(No.19YJA790025).
文摘Addressing the prolonged stagnation in household consumption growth in China is crucial for the successful implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand.By constructing the upgrading index of consumption structure from 2002 to 2018,it is found that the overall upgrading trend of household consumption structure in China is accelerated after 2014.Theoretical analysis and empirical results indicate that,as household consumption structures rapidly upgrade with rising incomes in China,the primary factor limiting reasonable growth in household consumption is the insufficient effective supply resulting from a mismatch between the supply structure and the demand structure.As the adjustment of the supply structure depends on the continuous optimization of investment flow,expanding effective investment is the key driving force to improve effective supply,and it is also the existing component of expanding domestic demand.Further research shows that weakening investment convergence can significantly alleviate the insufficient effective supply caused by consumption upgrading.Enhancing the scientific anticipation of policy regulations and increasing the effectiveness of investments will be beneficial for realizing the strategy of expanding domestic demand.
文摘This paper explores, from the perspective of general equilibrium, the relationship between urbanizing migrant workers and increasing domestic demand. Why should China adopt the strategy of relying on domestic demand to develop its economy？ Countering the impact of declining external demand is only a temporary reason for doing so, and the more fundamental reason is the need to change the ＂dual imbalance＂ in today’s economy： the imbalance between internal and external economic arrangements and the industry structural imbalance, as well as the need to take full advantage of the domestic market to achieve the goal of industrialization. The latent consumption demand of migrant workers will be fully released if realistic measures are taken to accelerate the pace of turning migrant workers into urban residents. This will help neutralize the negative impact of reduced external demand, as well as rectifying the structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and upgrading China’s industrialization and urbanization.
文摘China＇s economic growth has been driven by the dual-engine of domestic demand and external demand. Among which, domestic demand is the main engine originated from China＇s huge domestic market. Due to the advantage of openness, external demand has a growing contribution to economic growth. For a long term, China will remain in the stage of rapid industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization, therefore China will further expand its domestic consumption and external demand. The undergoing institutional reform will also contribute to the coordinated development of domestic demand and external demand.
文摘China can invigorate its economy by expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption chinese bankers are preparing to set up finance companies that provide consumer loans in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai.
文摘China’s consumer price index (CPI) continued to rise, but has slowed down since March. Although the country’s producer price index (PPI) scored new highs for months, international commodity prices fell substantially. But the Gross Domestic Product deflator, another important index which measures the change in prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy, indicates that the CPI’s slowdown has not yet brought any relief from inflation in the country. Will China soon see the end of inflation, or was it just a breather before another inflationary peak? The 21st Century Business Herald, a business newspaper published semiweekly, interviewed Huo Deming, an economics professor at the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, for some insights.
文摘The slower expansion of domestic demand has put pressure on economic growth as the Chinese economy enters a new normal stage. Since the industrial structure can only be effectively upgraded through appropriately expanding aggregate demand, three relationships must be balanced:
基金This paper is a phase result of"Capital Formation,Capital Allocation and Adjustment of Industrial Structure"of the National Social Science Fund of China (No.20FGLB002).
文摘Under the background of China's accelerating high-quality development,whether expanding domestic demand can promote the improvement of the core competitiveness of local enterprises is still lacking support of theoretical and empirical evidence.Using micro-data at the level of Chinese industrial enterprises,this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism and effect of domestic market demand on the enhancement of local enterprises'core competitiveness.The research shows the following three findings.First,domestic market demand will help local enterprises to increase investment in R&D and design and brand marketing,so as to promote value-added activities to shift from tangible activities in production to intangible activities before and after production,thereby improving their own core competitiveness.Second,further deconstructing market competition factors from the perspective of ownership shows that,driven by domestic market demand,non-state-owned enterprises can enhance their core competitiveness better than state-owned enterprises.Third,China's regional industrial distribution and development have the typical echelon characteristics,which leads to the geographical heterogeneity of the promotion effect of domestic market demand on the local enterprises to enhance their core competitiveness,showing a ladder-type declining trend from the east to the middle and then to the west.These findings provide a useful decision-making reference for better implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand under the background of accelerating the construction of a new developmentpattern.
文摘In recent years,the changes in the external environment and domestic development conditions have promoted the transformation of China's economy to one dominated by domestic circulation.In December 2020,the Communist Party of China Central Committee put forward the demand-side reform for the first time in order to prepare China for the new development stage of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)and to promote the new strategic deployment of China's high-quality development.Based on the paths and direction of the current 14thFive-YearPlan(2021-2015)tobuild a new development pattern,this paper elaborates on the theoretical connotations of the demand-side reform,points out the bottlenecks such as the unreasonable demand structure in China,the mismatch between the industrial system and the high-level demand,the resulting demand spillovers,the poor demand channels,and puts forward the current approaches to thedemand-sideereform in China.
文摘China is the world＇s largest cotton producer and consumer and its domestic cotton demand and supply have a great influence on the world market. This paper firstly gives a discussion on Chinese cotton market, especially from a viewpoint of history to study domestic market price fluctuation. The cotton market history from E R. China＇s setting up to present has been divided into four stages and characterized as different agricultural policies applications and economic periodicities. Concluding from the history, artificial influences may be the most important reason of market inequilibrium, up to now, market and artificial interruption, are also the key problem. Then it takes domestic cotton demand as a study object, trying to find what will be a statistic significant cotton demand in national level and it＇s underneath demand frame. Through a seres of analysis on the demand frame, problems have been clearly displayed, an open microeconomic circulation supports our study and six variables had been described by statistics. Therefore, we can analyze the cases of real cotton demand that includes supply and demand reactions in China with experience and estimations. Otherwise, international cotton market is greatly interacted with Chinese domestic market more and more today. Some necessary analysis, such as international cotton supply and demand, Chinese cotton stock policy and world price long run tendency, are very important factors for Chinese cotton development. Those may concern Chinese access to WTO, cotton trade quota and tariff, welfare comparison, etc., all have been discussed in the paper.
文摘Both academia and actual economic sectors have certain misunderstandings regarding the development of China＇s open economy. Since its accession to the WTO, China has in fact had an open economy and not an ＂export-oriented＂ economy. China＇s trade imbalance in the global economy is merely a result of economic disparities between the world＇s more- and less- developed regions combined with the rational optimization of resources. The current situation, wherein China appears to be heavily export-oriented, stems naturally from the real economy moving towards a dynamic equilibrium against a backdrop of economic globalization and deepening international specialization. We have concluded that domestic consumption and external demand reinforce each other, and the development of an open economy in China is therefore not at odds with expanding domestic consumption.
基金CAss Innovation Class-A Project“Follow-up Research on China's Macroeconomic Situation and Policy”.
文摘Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),the quality of China's economic development has been continuously improved.However,the year 2022 witnessed a subdued economic growth rate.The triple pressures continue to evolve,with contraction in demand as the primary contradiction facing China's macro economy in the short term.In contrast to major economies in the world,China grapples with a low economic growth-inflation index combination,a pace of economic expansion trailing behind its potential,and a mounting unemployment rate.The impact of supply on price increases weakens,while the global industrial and supply chains are amidst continuous adjustments.Both the consumer confidence index(Ccl)and the purchasing managers'index(PMl)remain low.The expectation for the depreciation of the RMB against US dollar is weakening.In 2023,China will continue to improve the financing environment and carry out a proactive fiscal policy.Simultaneously,there is a moderation trend in the trajectory of the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System hikes.Taken together,these factors(triple pressures)are expected to mitigate the contraction in demand,thereby steering the economy toward robust growth.However,it is crucial to recognize that low economic growth in the long term may compromise the quality of economic development.The year 2023 is the first year of accelerating Chinese modernization after the 2Oth National Congress of the CPC.China should integrate the strategy to expand internal demand with its efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform.This can foster the coordinated growth of both economic quality and speed,making a good start for Chinese modernization.
基金National Key Project on Basic Research(973),No.2010CB951003The National Science and Technology Project,No.2014BAD10B06
文摘Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.
基金supported by a grant from the Humanities and Social Science Research Fund of the Bureau of Education(for"expansion of domestic demand and home market effects of foreign trade in China") (Project No.08JA790023)
文摘In this paper, we use 2002-2008 International Standard Industry Classification two-digit bilateral trade paneI data for manufacturing industries in China and the OECD countries to test for the existence of home market effects. We find that significant home market effects exist in 8 out of 12 industries. These industries include the food, beverage and tobacco industry, wood products, the paper products and printing industry, chemical products, other non- metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, transport equipment, and miscellaneous products and waste resources recycling industry. Textile, clothing and leather manufacturing, oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing, rubber andplastics, and basic metals and fabricated metal products industries do not exhibit home market effects. Indeed, strong reverse home market effects occur for oil refining and nuclear fuel manufacturing and for the rubber and plastics industry. The empirical results reveal that certain industries benefit from new export opportunities due to the expansion of domestic demand in China.
文摘Fuelled by high domestic investment and rapid export expansion, China ＂s economy grew by ll.4 pereent in 2007, the highest increase since 1994 and the fifth eonseeutive year of double-digit growth. Such spectacular growth performance is unprecedented in the world＇s economic history. However, the Chinese Government is again worried about a possible ＂hard landing＂for the economy, as no economy can sustain very strong growth for extremely long period without overheating. Cracks in China ＂s economy are indeed emerging. The eonsumer priee index shot up to 6.9percent in November 2007, the highest level in a decade, with the annual inflation for 2007 rising to 4.S pereent, well above the government＇s ＂comfort level＂ of 3 percent. This prompted China＇s top leadership to declare that reducing economic overheating and curbing inflation would be the top poliey priorities for 2008. To contain such cost-push inflation, the government has to tackle its root causes, such as excessive liquidity, which is caused by the undervaluation of the renminbi, which in turn is attributable to China＇s chronic external and internal maeroeeonomie imbalances~ High growth is likely to continue in 2008, at around l O pereent, with inflation of S-6 pereent expected, despite the anticipated tighter maeroeeonomie control measures and the more troubled external economic environment （e.g. the expected US economic slowdown）. Regardless, China ＂s fundamental problems associated with runaway growth will largely remain. In addition, if the US economy slips into a serious recession, the Chinese economy will not be able to deeouple from it and escape unscathed.
