This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,t...This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.展开更多
In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth...In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GA...This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewnes...This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.展开更多
This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly ...This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.展开更多
This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the ...This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.展开更多
Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and ec...Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.展开更多
In recent years,the frequent adjustment of the government’s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of China’s economic policies rise continuously.The...In recent years,the frequent adjustment of the government’s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of China’s economic policies rise continuously.The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises.Then,how does economic policy uncertainty(EPU)affect mergers and acquisitions(M&A)behavior?What’s the mechanism?Based on the above questions,this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and M&A.The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate M&A behavior,and this effect is more significant in slow-growth companies.The relationship between EPU and M&A is affected by corporate governance,stock price volatility and financing constraints.Specifically,the company’s M&A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance,higher level of stock price volatility,and lesser financing constraints.Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of M&A performance in the short-term,but this effect does not exist in the long-term.Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.展开更多
With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries...With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.展开更多
Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from c...Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.展开更多
China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency...China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs.This study shows that,in periods of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),SOEs have performed a special function as"macroeconomic stabilizers."Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019,we investigate five aspects of SOEs'unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers:employment,investment,growth,financial operation,and expectations.When EPU increased,SOEs had more employment,higher investment expenditure,lower performance volatility,more robust financial structures,and more stable expectations than private firms.We employ the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables.The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.展开更多
This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods o...This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.展开更多
The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s f...The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s firms have actively sought overseas invest-ment opportunities.This paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and cross-border cap-ital flow decisions for listed firms in China.Our findings demon-strate that EPU originating from China does not seem to dissuade FDI inflow into China,but it does curtail FDI outflow from the country.It appears that government policies and the uncertainty the policies bring are deterministic for FDI.展开更多
To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a ...To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a SVAR model,aiming to simultaneously identify economic policy uncertainty shocks and the three conventional structural shocks of demand,supply and monetary policy.The research shows that(1)economic policy uncertainty shocks,though not the major factor for economic fluctuations in China,exhibit characteristics similar to those of negative demand shocks with inflation effect obviously stronger than output effect;(2)in the full sample period,demand shocks are the primary driving factor for China’s economic fluctuations,followed by supply shocks;(3)supply shocks are the most important driving force behind inflation and monetary policy adds fuel to the flame,while economic policy uncertainty shocks exert obvious inhibition on inflation.The academic contribution of this paper is showing some robust empirical facts of economic policy uncertainty’s effects on macroeconomic fluctuations from the biggest developing country,and the policy implication of our research is to provide academic support for the decision of“macroeconomic policies should remain stable”.展开更多
Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positiv...Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.展开更多
This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinea...This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.展开更多
In this paper,we introduce economic policy uncertainty by using a stochastic discount model.Via parameter calibration and static analysis,we investigate the dynamic characteristics of stock risk on different policy un...In this paper,we introduce economic policy uncertainty by using a stochastic discount model.Via parameter calibration and static analysis,we investigate the dynamic characteristics of stock risk on different policy uncertainty.On this basis,we test the channel through policy uncertainty affects stock risk by empirical simulation,and the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk formation by portfolio analysis,in order to verify the applicability of the theoretical model in China.Finally,the panel model is used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between policy uncertainty and stock risk.The results show that policy uncertainty can inereuse stock risk through enterprise cash flow,discounting factors and correlation coefficient.The effect is still significant after controlling traditional risk factors,corporate heterogeneity,and external environmental factors.Companies that are non-state-owned,have lower returns on invested capital and lower asset growth rate manifest greater stock risk when policy uncertainty is higher.The magnitude of the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk is larger when the economy is weaker and the policy environment is more unstable.展开更多
The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises,which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock t...The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises,which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock transactions.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to2018,we study the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading.The results show that macroeconomic policy uncertainty helps restrain the opportunistic trading of shares held by management.When macroeconomic policies are uncertain,enterprises improve their internal governance.Furthermore,strengthening equity governance helps reduce management’s opportunistic use of the uncertainty of the policy environment,highlighting the advantageous effect of macroeconomic policy uncertainty and helping regulators standardize managerial behavior and promote the governance effect of macroeconomic policy.展开更多
Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capita...Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.展开更多
以国际权威期刊《Forest Policy and Economics》为例,选取其2007—2017年刊发的与中国林业经济问题相关的文献,从国际视角对中国林业经济问题进行梳理与总结。基于统计分析,刊发的文献总体呈现数量波动增长、内容多样化、合作形式国际...以国际权威期刊《Forest Policy and Economics》为例,选取其2007—2017年刊发的与中国林业经济问题相关的文献,从国际视角对中国林业经济问题进行梳理与总结。基于统计分析,刊发的文献总体呈现数量波动增长、内容多样化、合作形式国际化,研究区域具体化,定量分析为主等特点。从林产品贸易、森林资源经营管理、森林转型等主题展开对中国林业经济研究的论述,以期为我国相关学者全面把握中国林业经济前沿研究进展和发展趋势提供参考与借鉴。展开更多
文摘This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.
文摘In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71871030,72131011)the Open Fund Project of Key Research Institute of Philosophies and Social Sciences in Hunan University of China(No.20FEFMZ1).
文摘This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71861008,72063005,U1811462,71532009)the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(718QN221,2019RC151)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hainan University(kyqd(sk)1809,kyqd1634).
文摘This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.
文摘This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.
基金the support of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education"Research on policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises’shadow banking activities and its economic effects"(20YJC790040)School Level Special Research Project of Beijing International Studies University(KYZX20A008).
文摘This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.
基金This paper is the result of Yangzhou University Science and innovation fund(Project No.:x20200820).
文摘Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.
文摘In recent years,the frequent adjustment of the government’s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of China’s economic policies rise continuously.The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises.Then,how does economic policy uncertainty(EPU)affect mergers and acquisitions(M&A)behavior?What’s the mechanism?Based on the above questions,this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and M&A.The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate M&A behavior,and this effect is more significant in slow-growth companies.The relationship between EPU and M&A is affected by corporate governance,stock price volatility and financing constraints.Specifically,the company’s M&A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance,higher level of stock price volatility,and lesser financing constraints.Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of M&A performance in the short-term,but this effect does not exist in the long-term.Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71631004,72033008the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.18YJA790101
文摘With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.
基金supported by Chengdu University of Technology “Double First-Class”initiative Construction Philosophy and Social Sciences Key Construction Project “Research on the Forming Mechanism of Laborers’Democratic Participation in Digital Platform under Algorithm Control”(Project No.:ZDJS202210)the Philosophy and Social Science Research Fund of Chengdu University of Technology“Research on the Guarantee Mechanism of Workers’Right to Speak in the New Business under the People’s Democracy in the Whole Process”(Project No.:YJ2022-YB022)the views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the foundations.
文摘Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72002213)Rui Ruan's research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72303266)+1 种基金the Program for Innovation Research at Central University of Finance and Economics(CUFE)the Program for Innovation Research at Center for China Fiscal Development at CUFE.
文摘China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs.This study shows that,in periods of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),SOEs have performed a special function as"macroeconomic stabilizers."Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019,we investigate five aspects of SOEs'unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers:employment,investment,growth,financial operation,and expectations.When EPU increased,SOEs had more employment,higher investment expenditure,lower performance volatility,more robust financial structures,and more stable expectations than private firms.We employ the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables.The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.
基金The project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China:a study on the timing of stock repurchase of Chinese listed companies:theory,demonstration and policy(No.71373162)
文摘This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.
文摘The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s firms have actively sought overseas invest-ment opportunities.This paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and cross-border cap-ital flow decisions for listed firms in China.Our findings demon-strate that EPU originating from China does not seem to dissuade FDI inflow into China,but it does curtail FDI outflow from the country.It appears that government policies and the uncertainty the policies bring are deterministic for FDI.
文摘To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a SVAR model,aiming to simultaneously identify economic policy uncertainty shocks and the three conventional structural shocks of demand,supply and monetary policy.The research shows that(1)economic policy uncertainty shocks,though not the major factor for economic fluctuations in China,exhibit characteristics similar to those of negative demand shocks with inflation effect obviously stronger than output effect;(2)in the full sample period,demand shocks are the primary driving factor for China’s economic fluctuations,followed by supply shocks;(3)supply shocks are the most important driving force behind inflation and monetary policy adds fuel to the flame,while economic policy uncertainty shocks exert obvious inhibition on inflation.The academic contribution of this paper is showing some robust empirical facts of economic policy uncertainty’s effects on macroeconomic fluctuations from the biggest developing country,and the policy implication of our research is to provide academic support for the decision of“macroeconomic policies should remain stable”.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project Nos.71032006 and 71372167)
文摘Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.
文摘This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.
基金This study is supported by the National Social Sciences Fund of China(No.16BJL028)the National Natural Science Fund of China(No.71771193,No.71471154)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project(No.2017M622671).
文摘In this paper,we introduce economic policy uncertainty by using a stochastic discount model.Via parameter calibration and static analysis,we investigate the dynamic characteristics of stock risk on different policy uncertainty.On this basis,we test the channel through policy uncertainty affects stock risk by empirical simulation,and the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk formation by portfolio analysis,in order to verify the applicability of the theoretical model in China.Finally,the panel model is used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between policy uncertainty and stock risk.The results show that policy uncertainty can inereuse stock risk through enterprise cash flow,discounting factors and correlation coefficient.The effect is still significant after controlling traditional risk factors,corporate heterogeneity,and external environmental factors.Companies that are non-state-owned,have lower returns on invested capital and lower asset growth rate manifest greater stock risk when policy uncertainty is higher.The magnitude of the effect of policy uncertainty on stock risk is larger when the economy is weaker and the policy environment is more unstable.
文摘The macroeconomic policy environment affects the internal governance of microenterprises,which may provide opportunities for management to benefit from stock sales while decreasing its motivation to manipulate stock transactions.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to2018,we study the impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on opportunistic insider trading.The results show that macroeconomic policy uncertainty helps restrain the opportunistic trading of shares held by management.When macroeconomic policies are uncertain,enterprises improve their internal governance.Furthermore,strengthening equity governance helps reduce management’s opportunistic use of the uncertainty of the policy environment,highlighting the advantageous effect of macroeconomic policy uncertainty and helping regulators standardize managerial behavior and promote the governance effect of macroeconomic policy.
基金sponsored by the Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)2018 Emergency Management Project“Exchange Rate Market Variation,Cross-Border Capital Flow and Financial Risk Prevention”(Grant No.71850005)the NSFC Youth Program“Dynamic Estimation of Foreign Exchange Market Pressure in the Process of Capital Account Opening and Evaluation of the Central Bank’s Intervention Policy Effects”(Grant No.71803204).
文摘Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.
文摘以国际权威期刊《Forest Policy and Economics》为例,选取其2007—2017年刊发的与中国林业经济问题相关的文献,从国际视角对中国林业经济问题进行梳理与总结。基于统计分析,刊发的文献总体呈现数量波动增长、内容多样化、合作形式国际化,研究区域具体化,定量分析为主等特点。从林产品贸易、森林资源经营管理、森林转型等主题展开对中国林业经济研究的论述,以期为我国相关学者全面把握中国林业经济前沿研究进展和发展趋势提供参考与借鉴。
