Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective struc...Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.展开更多
In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, whi...In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.展开更多
Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conv...Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.展开更多
The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for num...The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.展开更多
A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were in...A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.展开更多
In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.T...In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.展开更多
With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage co...With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.展开更多
This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of nor...In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).展开更多
In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to pro...In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.展开更多
The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are ...The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.展开更多
Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane ...Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane gap discharge tests were carried out under the gap distance of 5 m at the Qinghai Ultra High Voltage(UHV)test base at an altitude of 2200 m.The experiments measured the physical parameters such as the discharge current,electric field intensity and instantaneous optical power.The duration of the dark period and the critical charge of streamer-toleader transition were obtained at high altitude.Based on radial thermal expansion of the streamer stem,we established a modified streamer-to-leader transition model of the sphere-plane gap discharge at high altitude,and calculated the stem temperature,stem radii and the duration of streamer-to-leader transition.Compared with the measured duration of sphere-plane electrode discharge at an altitude of 2200 m,the error rate of the modified model was 0.94%,while the classical model was 6.97%,demonstrating the effectiveness of the modified model.From the comparisons and analysis,several suggestions are proposed to improve the numerical model for further quantitative investigations of the leader inception.展开更多
To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation...Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation metric for image classifier models and apply it to the CT image classification of lung cancer. A convolutional neural network is employed as the deep neural network (DNN) image classifier, with the residual network (ResNet) 50 chosen as the DNN archi-tecture. The image data used comprise a lung CT image set. Two classification models are built from datasets with varying amounts of data, and lung cancer is categorized into four classes using 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we employ t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding to visually explain the data distribution after classification. Experimental results demonstrate that cross en-tropy is a highly useful metric for evaluating the reliability of image classifier models. It is noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation of model perfor-mance, combining with other evaluation metrics is considered essential. .展开更多
The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely u...The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to ...This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to 2020 by measuring the innovation-driven efficiency and business environment index using the DEA-Malmquist index and the combined CRITIC weighting method from the new perspective of business environment improvement.The findings reveal that:(a)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between provincial innovation-driven efficiency and regional OFDI flows.This increase in innovation-driven efficiency can promote OFDI expansion of the region by improving its business environment.(b)The improvement of the business environments plays a significant intermediary and synergistic role in OFDI expansion driven by improved innovation efficiency.(c)The study of regional heterogeneity suggests that the central region enjoys the longest window period in terms of innovation-driven OFDI expansion,followed by the eastern region while the western region has the shortest window period.The improvement of the business environment in the western region is more effective in driving regional OFDI expansion.This conclusion remained true after the robustness test.In conclusion,this paper offers a few policy recommendations that can help Chinese capital of various kinds go global more effectively.展开更多
This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radi...This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncer...The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.展开更多
The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in pa...The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFC1509901)。
文摘Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province, China (No.2021-ZJ940Q)。
文摘In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42377174)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.ZR2022ME198)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.Z020006).
文摘Uncertainty is an essentially challenging for safe construction and long-term stability of geotechnical engineering.The inverse analysis is commonly utilized to determine the physico-mechanical parameters.However,conventional inverse analysis cannot deal with uncertainty in geotechnical and geological systems.In this study,a framework was developed to evaluate and quantify uncertainty in inverse analysis based on the reduced-order model(ROM)and probabilistic programming.The ROM was utilized to capture the mechanical and deformation properties of surrounding rock mass in geomechanical problems.Probabilistic programming was employed to evaluate uncertainty during construction in geotechnical engineering.A circular tunnel was then used to illustrate the proposed framework using analytical and numerical solution.The results show that the geomechanical parameters and associated uncertainty can be properly obtained and the proposed framework can capture the mechanical behaviors under uncertainty.Then,a slope case was employed to demonstrate the performance of the developed framework.The results prove that the proposed framework provides a scientific,feasible,and effective tool to characterize the properties and physical mechanism of geomaterials under uncertainty in geotechnical engineering problems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.12104153 and 51765017)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M701963)Training Plan for Academic and Technical Leaders of Major Disciplines in Jiangxi Province,China(Grant No.20204BCJL23034).
文摘The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.
文摘A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the support provided by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX18_0526)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2018B682X14)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2021A1515110807).
文摘In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(SGSW0000FZGHBJS2200070)。
文摘With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
文摘In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11472137 and U2141246)。
文摘In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.
文摘The breakdown of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle occurs when energies approach the Planck scale, and the corresponding Schwarzschild radius becomes similar to the Compton wavelength. Both of these quantities are approximately equal to the Planck length. In this context, we have introduced a model that utilizes a combination of Schwarzschild’s radius and Compton length to quantify the gravitational length of an object. This model has provided a novel perspective in generalizing the uncertainty principle. Furthermore, it has elucidated the significance of the deforming linear parameter β and its range of variation from unity to its maximum value.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Scientific Funds for Young Scientists)(No.52007064)。
文摘Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane gap discharge tests were carried out under the gap distance of 5 m at the Qinghai Ultra High Voltage(UHV)test base at an altitude of 2200 m.The experiments measured the physical parameters such as the discharge current,electric field intensity and instantaneous optical power.The duration of the dark period and the critical charge of streamer-toleader transition were obtained at high altitude.Based on radial thermal expansion of the streamer stem,we established a modified streamer-to-leader transition model of the sphere-plane gap discharge at high altitude,and calculated the stem temperature,stem radii and the duration of streamer-to-leader transition.Compared with the measured duration of sphere-plane electrode discharge at an altitude of 2200 m,the error rate of the modified model was 0.94%,while the classical model was 6.97%,demonstrating the effectiveness of the modified model.From the comparisons and analysis,several suggestions are proposed to improve the numerical model for further quantitative investigations of the leader inception.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
文摘Cross entropy is a measure in machine learning and deep learning that assesses the difference between predicted and actual probability distributions. In this study, we propose cross entropy as a performance evaluation metric for image classifier models and apply it to the CT image classification of lung cancer. A convolutional neural network is employed as the deep neural network (DNN) image classifier, with the residual network (ResNet) 50 chosen as the DNN archi-tecture. The image data used comprise a lung CT image set. Two classification models are built from datasets with varying amounts of data, and lung cancer is categorized into four classes using 10-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we employ t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding to visually explain the data distribution after classification. Experimental results demonstrate that cross en-tropy is a highly useful metric for evaluating the reliability of image classifier models. It is noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation of model perfor-mance, combining with other evaluation metrics is considered essential. .
基金supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011244).
文摘The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.
基金funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China-funded project “Research on the Theoretical Basis of Building a Modern Economic System in the New Era and the Construction of the Index System”(18KXS009)Sichuan’s provincial soft science project “A Study on the Path for Transformation Towards High-Quality Development in the Context of New Economy in Sichuan from the Perspective of Dual Circulation”(22JDR0261)
文摘This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to 2020 by measuring the innovation-driven efficiency and business environment index using the DEA-Malmquist index and the combined CRITIC weighting method from the new perspective of business environment improvement.The findings reveal that:(a)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between provincial innovation-driven efficiency and regional OFDI flows.This increase in innovation-driven efficiency can promote OFDI expansion of the region by improving its business environment.(b)The improvement of the business environments plays a significant intermediary and synergistic role in OFDI expansion driven by improved innovation efficiency.(c)The study of regional heterogeneity suggests that the central region enjoys the longest window period in terms of innovation-driven OFDI expansion,followed by the eastern region while the western region has the shortest window period.The improvement of the business environment in the western region is more effective in driving regional OFDI expansion.This conclusion remained true after the robustness test.In conclusion,this paper offers a few policy recommendations that can help Chinese capital of various kinds go global more effectively.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.52274222)research project supported by Shanxi Scholarship Council of China(No.2023-036).
文摘This paper presents a novel framework aimed at quantifying uncertainties associated with the 3D reconstruction of smoke from2Dimages.This approach reconstructs color and density fields from 2D images using Neural Radiance Field(NeRF)and improves image quality using frequency regularization.The NeRF model is obtained via joint training ofmultiple artificial neural networks,whereby the expectation and standard deviation of density fields and RGB values can be evaluated for each pixel.In addition,customized physics-informed neural network(PINN)with residual blocks and two-layer activation functions are utilized to input the density fields of the NeRF into Navier-Stokes equations and convection-diffusion equations to reconstruct the velocity field.The velocity uncertainties are also evaluated through ensemble learning.The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through numerical examples.The presentmethod is an important step towards downstream tasks such as reliability analysis and robust optimization in engineering design.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
文摘The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.
文摘The main aim of the paper is to present (and at the same time offer) a differ-ent perspective for the analysis of the accelerated expansion of the Universe. A perspective that can surely be considered as being “in parallel” to the tradition-al ones, such as those based, for example, on the hypotheses of “Dark Matter” and “Dark Energy”, or better as a “com-possible” perspective, because it is not understood as being “exclusive”. In fact, it is an approach that, when con-firmed by experimental results, always keeps its validity from an “operative” point of view. This is because, in analogy to the traditional perspectives, on the basis of Popper’s Falsification Principle the corresponding “Generative” Logic on which it is based has not the property of the perfect induction. The basic difference then only consists in the fact that the Evolution of the Universe is now modeled by considering the Universe as a Self-Organizing System, which is thus analyzed in the light of the Maximum Ordinality Principle.
