In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2...In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.展开更多
Background The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline,the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence should be 20 and 50%in 2020 and 2025,respectively.The case number o...Background The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline,the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence should be 20 and 50%in 2020 and 2025,respectively.The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9%of the global total in 2018,which ranked the second high in the world.From 2007 to 2019,854672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province,China.This study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.Methods The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019,registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025,which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones.The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016,and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019.The Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the model.The statistically significant level isα=0.05.Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95%confidence interval(CI)from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.Results High active PTB registration rates in March,April,May and June showed the seasonal variations.The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model.The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019.The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1(95%CI:36.2–62.0)per 100000 population and 34.4(95%CI:18.6–50.2)per 100000 population in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015,the reduction will reach 23.7%(95%CI,3.2–44.1%)and 46.8%(95%CI,21.4–72.1%)in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Conclusions The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province.Without regard to the CI,the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved.However,the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province,China.展开更多
In this work,the exponential approximation is used for the numerical simulation of a nonlinear SITR model as a system of differential equations that shows the dynamics of the new coronavirus(COVID-19).The SITR mathema...In this work,the exponential approximation is used for the numerical simulation of a nonlinear SITR model as a system of differential equations that shows the dynamics of the new coronavirus(COVID-19).The SITR mathematical model is divided into four classes using fractal parameters for COVID-19 dynamics,namely,susceptible(S),infected(I),treatment(T),and recovered(R).The main idea of the presented method is based on the matrix representations of the exponential functions and their derivatives using collocation points.To indicate the usefulness of this method,we employ it in some cases.For error analysis of the method,the residual of the solutions is reviewed.The reported examples show that the method is reasonably efficient and accurate.展开更多
The Palu MW7.4 earthquake occurred on September 28, 2018, with the epicenter at 119.86°, 0.72°. The severe shaking caused severe damage in Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu. We conducted a postseismic def...The Palu MW7.4 earthquake occurred on September 28, 2018, with the epicenter at 119.86°, 0.72°. The severe shaking caused severe damage in Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu. We conducted a postseismic deformation study to determine the deformation pattern and reduce future earthquakes’ impact.Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(In SAR) data were processed using Li CSBAS to get the time series. The time series data were fitted to exponential and logarithmic functions to determine the mechanism of postseismic deformation. The exponential model identified the influence of the viscoelastic mechanism, and the logarithm identified the afterslip mechanism. The Palu earthquake was fitted to logarithmic and exponential, but the logarithmic was more significant than an exponential function.Afterslip mechanism predominates, and viscoelastic mechanisms play a minor role in this postseismic deformation.展开更多
In this study, a new four-parameter distribution called the Modi Exponentiated Exponential distribution was proposed and studied. The new distribution has three shape and one scale parameters. Its mathematical and sta...In this study, a new four-parameter distribution called the Modi Exponentiated Exponential distribution was proposed and studied. The new distribution has three shape and one scale parameters. Its mathematical and statistical properties were investigated. The parameters of the new model were estimated using the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the performance of the MLEs through average bias and RMSE. The flexibility and goodness-of-fit of the proposed distribution were demonstrated by applying it to two real data sets and comparing it with some existing distributions.展开更多
By looking at the situation when the coefficients Pj(z)(j=1,2,…,n-1)(or most of them) are exponential polynomials,we investigate the fact that all nontrivial solutions to higher order differential equations f((n))+Pn...By looking at the situation when the coefficients Pj(z)(j=1,2,…,n-1)(or most of them) are exponential polynomials,we investigate the fact that all nontrivial solutions to higher order differential equations f((n))+Pn-1(z)f((n-1))+…+P0(z)f=0 are of infinite order.An exponential polynomial coefficient plays a key role in these results.展开更多
In this article,we consider a new family of exponential type estimators for estimating the unknown population mean of the study variable.We propose estimators taking advantage of the auxiliary variable information und...In this article,we consider a new family of exponential type estimators for estimating the unknown population mean of the study variable.We propose estimators taking advantage of the auxiliary variable information under the first and second non-response cases separately.The required theoretical comparisons are obtained and the numerical studies are conducted.In conclusion,the results show that the proposed family of estimators is the most efficient estimator with respect to the estimators in literature under the obtained conditions for both cases.展开更多
In this work,we study the linearized Landau equation with soft potentials and show that the smooth solution to the Cauchy problem with initial datum in L^(2)(ℝ^(3))enjoys an analytic regularization effect,and that the...In this work,we study the linearized Landau equation with soft potentials and show that the smooth solution to the Cauchy problem with initial datum in L^(2)(ℝ^(3))enjoys an analytic regularization effect,and that the evolution of the analytic radius is the same as the heat equations.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to present the class of atomic basis functions(ABFs)which are of exponential type and are denoted by EFupn(x,ω).While ABFs of the algebraic type are already represented in the numerical m...The purpose of this paper is to present the class of atomic basis functions(ABFs)which are of exponential type and are denoted by EFupn(x,ω).While ABFs of the algebraic type are already represented in the numerical modeling of various problems inmathematical physics and computationalmechanics,ABFs of the exponential type have not yet been sufficiently researched.These functions,unlike the ABFs of the algebraic type Fupn(x),contain the tension parameterω,which gives them additional approximation properties.Exponential monomials up to the nth degree can be described exactly by the linear combination of the functions EFupn(x,ω).The function EFupn for n=0 is called the“mother”ABF of the exponential type,i.e.,EFup0(x,ω)≡Eup(x,ω).In other words,the functions EFupn(x,ω)are elements of the linear vector space EUPn and retain all the properties of their“mother”function Eup(x,ω).Thus,this paper,in terms of its content and purpose,can be understood as a sequel of the article by Brajcic Kurbasa et al.,which shows the basic properties and application of the basis function Eup(x,ω).This paper presents,in an analogous way,the development and application of the exponential basis functions EFupn(x,ω).Here,for the first time,expressions for calculating the values of the functions EFupn(x,ω)and their derivatives are given in a form suitable for application in numerical analyses,which is shown in the verification examples of the approximations of known functions.展开更多
This paper proposes an improved exponential curvature-compensated bandgap reference circuit to exploit the exponential relationship between the current gainβof the bipolar junction transistor(BJT)and the temperature ...This paper proposes an improved exponential curvature-compensated bandgap reference circuit to exploit the exponential relationship between the current gainβof the bipolar junction transistor(BJT)and the temperature as well as reduce the influence of resistance-temperature dependency.Considering the degraded circuit performance caused by the process deviation,the trimmable module of the temperature coefficient(TC)is introduced to improve the circuit stability.The circuit has the advantages of simple structure,high linear stability,high TC accuracy,and trimmable TC.It consumes an area of 0.09 mm^(2)when fabricated by using the 0.25-μm complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor(CMOS)process.The proposed circuit achieves the simulated power supply rejection(PSR)of about-78.7 dB@1 kHz,the measured TC of~4.7 ppm/℃over a wide temperature range from-55℃to 125℃with the 2.5-V single-supply voltage,and the tested line regulation of 0.10 mV/V.Such a high-performance bandgap reference circuit can be widely applied in high-precision and high-reliability electronic systems.展开更多
This paper deals with the numerical implementation of the exponential Drucker-Parger plasticitymodel in the commercial finite element software,ABAQUS,via user subroutine UMAT for adhesive joint simulations.The influen...This paper deals with the numerical implementation of the exponential Drucker-Parger plasticitymodel in the commercial finite element software,ABAQUS,via user subroutine UMAT for adhesive joint simulations.The influence of hydrostatic pressure on adhesive strength was investigated by a modified Arcan fixture designed particularly to induce a different state of hydrostatic pressure within an adhesive layer.The developed user subroutine UMAT,which utilizes an associated plastic flow during a plastic deformation,can provide a good agreement between the simulations and the experimental data.Better numerical stability at highly positive hydrostatic pressure loads for a very high order of exponential function can also be achieved compared to when a non-associated flow is used.展开更多
The present article mainly focuses on the fractional derivatives with an exponential kernel(“exponential fractional derivatives”for brevity).First,several extended integral transforms of the exponential fractional d...The present article mainly focuses on the fractional derivatives with an exponential kernel(“exponential fractional derivatives”for brevity).First,several extended integral transforms of the exponential fractional derivatives are proposed,including the Fourier transform and the Laplace transform.Then,the L2 discretisation for the exponential Caputo derivative with a∈(1,2)is established.The estimation of the truncation error and the properties of the coefficients are discussed.In addition,a numerical example is given to verify the correctness of the derived L2 discrete formula.展开更多
In this paper,the non-harmonic resonance of Bernoulli viscoelastic beams,Kirchhoff viscoelastic plates,Timoshenko viscoelastic beams,and Mindlin viscoelastic plates subjected to time-dependent exponentially decreasing...In this paper,the non-harmonic resonance of Bernoulli viscoelastic beams,Kirchhoff viscoelastic plates,Timoshenko viscoelastic beams,and Mindlin viscoelastic plates subjected to time-dependent exponentially decreasing transverse distributed load is investigated for the first time.The constitutive equations are expressed utilizing Boltzmann integral law with a constant bulk modulus.The displacement vector is approximated by employing the separation of variables method.The Laplace transformation is used to transfer equations from the time domain to the Laplace domain and vice versa.The novel point of the proposed method is to express,prove and calculate the critical time in which the displacement will be several times the displacement at time zero.In addition,this new method calculates the maximum deflection at the critical time,explicitly and exactly,without any need to follow the time-displacement curve with a low computational cost.Additionally,the proposed method introduces the critical range of time so that the responses are greater than the responses at time zero.展开更多
针对工业机器人在高度制造领域精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种基于POE模型的工业机器人运动学参数二次辨识方法。阐述了基于指数积(Product of exponential, POE)模型的运动学误差模型构建方法,并建立基于POE误差模型的适应度函数;为实...针对工业机器人在高度制造领域精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种基于POE模型的工业机器人运动学参数二次辨识方法。阐述了基于指数积(Product of exponential, POE)模型的运动学误差模型构建方法,并建立基于POE误差模型的适应度函数;为实现高精度的参数辨识,提出了一种二次辨识方法,先利用改进灰狼优化算法(Improved grey wolf optimizer, IGWO)实现运动学参数误差的粗辨识,初步将Staubli TX60型机器人的平均位置误差和平均姿态误差分别从(0.648 mm, 0.212°)降低为(0.457 mm, 0.166°);为进一步提高机器人的精度性能,再通过LM(Levenberg-Marquard)算法进行参数误差的精辨识,最终将Staubli TX60型机器人平均位置误差和平均姿态误差进一步降低为(0.237 mm, 0.063°),机器人平均位置误差和平均姿态误差分别降低63.4%和70.2%。为了验证上述二次辨识方法的稳定性,随机选取5组辨识数据集和验证数据集进行POE误差模型的参数误差辨识,结果表明提出的二次辨识方法能够稳定、精确地辨识工业机器人运动学参数误差。展开更多
文摘In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.
基金Supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China （863 Program） （2007AA11Z221）, International Cooperation Project of Shanghai （08210707500）, and Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai.（08ZR1420600） . _
文摘Background The World Health Organization End TB Strategy meant that compared with 2015 baseline,the reduction in pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)incidence should be 20 and 50%in 2020 and 2025,respectively.The case number of PTB in China accounted for 9%of the global total in 2018,which ranked the second high in the world.From 2007 to 2019,854672 active PTB cases were registered and treated in Henan Province,China.This study was to assess whether the WHO milestones could be achieved in Henan Province.Methods The active PTB numbers in Henan Province from 2007 to 2019,registered in Chinese Tuberculosis Information Management System were analyzed to predict the active PTB registration rates in 2020 and 2025,which is conductive to early response measures to ensure the achievement of the WHO milestones.The time series model was created by monthly active PTB registration rates from 2007 to 2016,and the optimal model was verified by data from 2017 to 2019.The Ljung-Box Q statistic was used to evaluate the model.The statistically significant level isα=0.05.Monthly active PTB registration rates and 95%confidence interval(CI)from 2020 to 2025 were predicted.Results High active PTB registration rates in March,April,May and June showed the seasonal variations.The exponential smoothing winter’s multiplication model was selected as the best-fitting model.The predicted values were approximately consistent with the observed ones from 2017 to 2019.The annual active PTB registration rates were predicted as 49.1(95%CI:36.2–62.0)per 100000 population and 34.4(95%CI:18.6–50.2)per 100000 population in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Compared with the active PTB registration rate in 2015,the reduction will reach 23.7%(95%CI,3.2–44.1%)and 46.8%(95%CI,21.4–72.1%)in 2020 and 2025,respectively.Conclusions The high active PTB registration rates in spring and early summer indicate that high risk of tuberculosis infection in late autumn and winter in Henan Province.Without regard to the CI,the first milestone of WHO End TB Strategy in 2020 will be achieved.However,the second milestone in 2025 will not be easily achieved unless there are early response measures in Henan Province,China.
文摘In this work,the exponential approximation is used for the numerical simulation of a nonlinear SITR model as a system of differential equations that shows the dynamics of the new coronavirus(COVID-19).The SITR mathematical model is divided into four classes using fractal parameters for COVID-19 dynamics,namely,susceptible(S),infected(I),treatment(T),and recovered(R).The main idea of the presented method is based on the matrix representations of the exponential functions and their derivatives using collocation points.To indicate the usefulness of this method,we employ it in some cases.For error analysis of the method,the residual of the solutions is reviewed.The reported examples show that the method is reasonably efficient and accurate.
基金partially supported by UGM’s Social Fund in the scheme of the RTA Project 2022
文摘The Palu MW7.4 earthquake occurred on September 28, 2018, with the epicenter at 119.86°, 0.72°. The severe shaking caused severe damage in Central Sulawesi, especially in Palu. We conducted a postseismic deformation study to determine the deformation pattern and reduce future earthquakes’ impact.Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(In SAR) data were processed using Li CSBAS to get the time series. The time series data were fitted to exponential and logarithmic functions to determine the mechanism of postseismic deformation. The exponential model identified the influence of the viscoelastic mechanism, and the logarithm identified the afterslip mechanism. The Palu earthquake was fitted to logarithmic and exponential, but the logarithmic was more significant than an exponential function.Afterslip mechanism predominates, and viscoelastic mechanisms play a minor role in this postseismic deformation.
文摘In this study, a new four-parameter distribution called the Modi Exponentiated Exponential distribution was proposed and studied. The new distribution has three shape and one scale parameters. Its mathematical and statistical properties were investigated. The parameters of the new model were estimated using the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the performance of the MLEs through average bias and RMSE. The flexibility and goodness-of-fit of the proposed distribution were demonstrated by applying it to two real data sets and comparing it with some existing distributions.
基金supported partly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12171050,11871260)National Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2018A030313508)。
文摘By looking at the situation when the coefficients Pj(z)(j=1,2,…,n-1)(or most of them) are exponential polynomials,we investigate the fact that all nontrivial solutions to higher order differential equations f((n))+Pn-1(z)f((n-1))+…+P0(z)f=0 are of infinite order.An exponential polynomial coefficient plays a key role in these results.
文摘In this article,we consider a new family of exponential type estimators for estimating the unknown population mean of the study variable.We propose estimators taking advantage of the auxiliary variable information under the first and second non-response cases separately.The required theoretical comparisons are obtained and the numerical studies are conducted.In conclusion,the results show that the proposed family of estimators is the most efficient estimator with respect to the estimators in literature under the obtained conditions for both cases.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province,China (2022CFB444)the Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modelling and High Performance Computing of Air Vehicles (NUAA)+1 种基金supported by the NSFC (12031006)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China.
文摘In this work,we study the linearized Landau equation with soft potentials and show that the smooth solution to the Cauchy problem with initial datum in L^(2)(ℝ^(3))enjoys an analytic regularization effect,and that the evolution of the analytic radius is the same as the heat equations.
基金supported through Project KK.01.1.1.02.0027a project co-financed by the Croatian Government and the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund-the Competitiveness and Cohesion Operational Programme.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to present the class of atomic basis functions(ABFs)which are of exponential type and are denoted by EFupn(x,ω).While ABFs of the algebraic type are already represented in the numerical modeling of various problems inmathematical physics and computationalmechanics,ABFs of the exponential type have not yet been sufficiently researched.These functions,unlike the ABFs of the algebraic type Fupn(x),contain the tension parameterω,which gives them additional approximation properties.Exponential monomials up to the nth degree can be described exactly by the linear combination of the functions EFupn(x,ω).The function EFupn for n=0 is called the“mother”ABF of the exponential type,i.e.,EFup0(x,ω)≡Eup(x,ω).In other words,the functions EFupn(x,ω)are elements of the linear vector space EUPn and retain all the properties of their“mother”function Eup(x,ω).Thus,this paper,in terms of its content and purpose,can be understood as a sequel of the article by Brajcic Kurbasa et al.,which shows the basic properties and application of the basis function Eup(x,ω).This paper presents,in an analogous way,the development and application of the exponential basis functions EFupn(x,ω).Here,for the first time,expressions for calculating the values of the functions EFupn(x,ω)and their derivatives are given in a form suitable for application in numerical analyses,which is shown in the verification examples of the approximations of known functions.
文摘This paper proposes an improved exponential curvature-compensated bandgap reference circuit to exploit the exponential relationship between the current gainβof the bipolar junction transistor(BJT)and the temperature as well as reduce the influence of resistance-temperature dependency.Considering the degraded circuit performance caused by the process deviation,the trimmable module of the temperature coefficient(TC)is introduced to improve the circuit stability.The circuit has the advantages of simple structure,high linear stability,high TC accuracy,and trimmable TC.It consumes an area of 0.09 mm^(2)when fabricated by using the 0.25-μm complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor(CMOS)process.The proposed circuit achieves the simulated power supply rejection(PSR)of about-78.7 dB@1 kHz,the measured TC of~4.7 ppm/℃over a wide temperature range from-55℃to 125℃with the 2.5-V single-supply voltage,and the tested line regulation of 0.10 mV/V.Such a high-performance bandgap reference circuit can be widely applied in high-precision and high-reliability electronic systems.
基金funded by King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok.Contract No.KMUTNB-PHD-62-07.
文摘This paper deals with the numerical implementation of the exponential Drucker-Parger plasticitymodel in the commercial finite element software,ABAQUS,via user subroutine UMAT for adhesive joint simulations.The influence of hydrostatic pressure on adhesive strength was investigated by a modified Arcan fixture designed particularly to induce a different state of hydrostatic pressure within an adhesive layer.The developed user subroutine UMAT,which utilizes an associated plastic flow during a plastic deformation,can provide a good agreement between the simulations and the experimental data.Better numerical stability at highly positive hydrostatic pressure loads for a very high order of exponential function can also be achieved compared to when a non-associated flow is used.
文摘The present article mainly focuses on the fractional derivatives with an exponential kernel(“exponential fractional derivatives”for brevity).First,several extended integral transforms of the exponential fractional derivatives are proposed,including the Fourier transform and the Laplace transform.Then,the L2 discretisation for the exponential Caputo derivative with a∈(1,2)is established.The estimation of the truncation error and the properties of the coefficients are discussed.In addition,a numerical example is given to verify the correctness of the derived L2 discrete formula.
文摘In this paper,the non-harmonic resonance of Bernoulli viscoelastic beams,Kirchhoff viscoelastic plates,Timoshenko viscoelastic beams,and Mindlin viscoelastic plates subjected to time-dependent exponentially decreasing transverse distributed load is investigated for the first time.The constitutive equations are expressed utilizing Boltzmann integral law with a constant bulk modulus.The displacement vector is approximated by employing the separation of variables method.The Laplace transformation is used to transfer equations from the time domain to the Laplace domain and vice versa.The novel point of the proposed method is to express,prove and calculate the critical time in which the displacement will be several times the displacement at time zero.In addition,this new method calculates the maximum deflection at the critical time,explicitly and exactly,without any need to follow the time-displacement curve with a low computational cost.Additionally,the proposed method introduces the critical range of time so that the responses are greater than the responses at time zero.
文摘针对工业机器人在高度制造领域精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种基于POE模型的工业机器人运动学参数二次辨识方法。阐述了基于指数积(Product of exponential, POE)模型的运动学误差模型构建方法,并建立基于POE误差模型的适应度函数;为实现高精度的参数辨识,提出了一种二次辨识方法,先利用改进灰狼优化算法(Improved grey wolf optimizer, IGWO)实现运动学参数误差的粗辨识,初步将Staubli TX60型机器人的平均位置误差和平均姿态误差分别从(0.648 mm, 0.212°)降低为(0.457 mm, 0.166°);为进一步提高机器人的精度性能,再通过LM(Levenberg-Marquard)算法进行参数误差的精辨识,最终将Staubli TX60型机器人平均位置误差和平均姿态误差进一步降低为(0.237 mm, 0.063°),机器人平均位置误差和平均姿态误差分别降低63.4%和70.2%。为了验证上述二次辨识方法的稳定性,随机选取5组辨识数据集和验证数据集进行POE误差模型的参数误差辨识,结果表明提出的二次辨识方法能够稳定、精确地辨识工业机器人运动学参数误差。
