Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disast...Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.展开更多
The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in m...The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.展开更多
In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in th...In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.展开更多
Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting ...Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.展开更多
Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme altern...Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme alternating thermal/cold shock poses a significant challenge to reliability and safety.Here,we present the first investigation into the structural failure mechanism of GF during cyclic liquid nitrogen shocks(LNS),which reveals a bubbling process characterized by“permeation-diffusion-deformation”phenomenon.To overcome this long-standing structural weakness,a novel metal-nanoarmor strategy is proposed to construct a Cu-modified graphitic film(GF@Cu)with seamless heterointerface.This well-designed interface ensures superior structural stability for GF@Cu after hundreds of LNS cycles from 77 to 300 K.Moreover,GF@Cu maintains high thermal conductivity up to 1088 W m^(−1)K^(−1)with degradation of less than 5%even after 150 LNS cycles,superior to that of pure GF(50%degradation).Our work not only offers an opportunity to improve the robustness of graphitic films by the rational structural design but also facilitates the applications of thermally conductive carbon-based materials for future extreme thermal management in complex aerospace electronics.展开更多
A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isotherm...A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.展开更多
Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal charac...Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.展开更多
The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting me...The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting mechanism(FOS-ELM)are applied in the prediction of the lime utilization ratio of dephosphorization in the basic oxygen furnace steelmaking process.The ELM model exhibites the best performance compared with the models of MLR and SVR.OS-ELM and FOS-ELM are applied for sequential learning and model updating.The optimal number of samples in validity term of the FOS-ELM model is determined to be 1500,with the smallest population mean absolute relative error(MARE)value of 0.058226 for the population.The variable importance analysis reveals lime weight,initial P content,and hot metal weight as the most important variables for the lime utilization ratio.The lime utilization ratio increases with the decrease in lime weight and the increases in the initial P content and hot metal weight.A prediction system based on FOS-ELM is applied in actual industrial production for one month.The hit ratios of the predicted lime utilization ratio in the error ranges of±1%,±3%,and±5%are 61.16%,90.63%,and 94.11%,respectively.The coefficient of determination,MARE,and root mean square error are 0.8670,0.06823,and 1.4265,respectively.The system exhibits desirable performance for applications in actual industrial pro-duction.展开更多
An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(...An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.展开更多
Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of...Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.展开更多
Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material...Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material charging control,optimize gas flow distribution and improve ironmaking efficiency.It has been challengeable to obtain high-quality optical burden surface images under high-temperature,high-dust,and extremelydim(less than 0.001 Lux)environment.Based on a novel endoscopic sensing detection idea,a reverse telephoto structure starlight imaging system with large field of view and large aperture is designed.Combined with a water-air dual cooling intelligent self-maintenance protection device and the imaging system,a starlight high-temperature industrial endoscope is developed to obtain clear optical burden surface images stably under the harsh environment.Based on an endoscope imaging area model,a material flow trajectory model and a gas-dust coupling distribution model,an optimal installation position and posture configuration method for the endoscope is proposed,which maximizes the effective imaging area and ensures large-area,safe and stable imaging of the device in a confined space.Industrial experiments and applications indicate that the proposed method obtains clear and reliable large-area optical burden surface images and reveals new BF conditions,providing key data support for green iron smelting.展开更多
BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ...BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ingesting an enzyme-based chemical detergent,resulting in a serious pulmonary infection and severe malnutrition.Upper gastrointestinal imaging showed that he had an ETF,and endoscopy showed that he had extreme and severe esophageal stricture.This case was complex and difficult to treat.According to the domestic and foreign lite-rature,there is no universal treatment that is low-risk.CASE SUMMARY A patient came to our hospital with extreme ES,an ETF,and severe malnutrition complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis 1 mo after the consumption of an enzy-me-based detergent.The ES was serious,and the endoscope was unable to pass through the esophagus.We treated him by endoscopic incision method(EIM),esophageal stent placement(ESP),and endoscopic balloon dilation(EBD)by using the bronchoscope and gastroscope.This treatment not only closed the ETF,but also expanded the esophagus,with minimal trauma,greatly reducing the pain of the patient.According to the literature,there are no similar reported cases.CONCLUSION We report,for the first time,a patient with extreme CES complicated with ETF,where the endoscope could not be passed through his esophagus but he could be examined by bronchoscopy and treated by EIM,ESP,and EBD.展开更多
This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pres...This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in stroke patients. The study utilizes EVT to analyze the functional connection between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in a sample of 297 stroke patients. The 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure measurement curves for every 15 minutes are considered, acknowledging a censored rate of 40%. The findings reveal that the sample mean excess function exhibits a positive gradient above a specific threshold, confirming the heavy-tailed distribution of data in stroke patients with a positive extreme value index. Consequently, the estimated conditional extreme quantile indicates that stroke patients with higher blood pressure measurements face an elevated risk of recurrent stroke occurrence at an early stage. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between ambulatory blood pressure and recurrent stroke, providing valuable insights for clinical considerations and potential interventions in stroke management.展开更多
This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment...This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.展开更多
Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate...Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.展开更多
The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in t...The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in the arid region of Northwest China.In this study,event-based extreme precipitation(EEP)was defined as continuous precipitation that includes at least one day of EP.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of four EEP types(front EEP,late EEP,balanced EEP,and single day EEP)across the Loess Plateau(LP)based on data acquired from 87 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019.Precipitation on the LP basically maintained a spatial pattern of"low in the northwest region and high in the southeast region",and EP over the last 10 a increased significantly.The cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP was 34%and was dominant for 60 a,while the cumulative precipitation percentage of front,late,and balanced EEP types associated with PSP accounted for 66%,which confirms to the connotation of EEP.The cumulative frequencies of front and late EEP types were 23%and 21%,respectively,while the cumulative frequency of balanced EEP had the lowest value at only 13%.Moreover,global warming could lead to more single day EEP across the LP,and continuous EEP could increase in the northwestern region and decrease in the eastern region in the future.The concept of process-oriented EP could facilitate further exploration of disaster-causing processes associated with different types of EP,and provide a theoretical basis for deriving precipitation disaster chains and construction of disaster cluster characteristics.展开更多
Software maintenance is the process of fixing,modifying,and improving software deliverables after they are delivered to the client.Clients can benefit from offshore software maintenance outsourcing(OSMO)in different w...Software maintenance is the process of fixing,modifying,and improving software deliverables after they are delivered to the client.Clients can benefit from offshore software maintenance outsourcing(OSMO)in different ways,including time savings,cost savings,and improving the software quality and value.One of the hardest challenges for the OSMO vendor is to choose a suitable project among several clients’projects.The goal of the current study is to recommend a machine learning-based decision support system that OSMO vendors can utilize to forecast or assess the project of OSMO clients.The projects belong to OSMO vendors,having offices in developing countries while providing services to developed countries.In the current study,Extreme Learning Machine’s(ELM’s)variant called Deep Extreme Learning Machines(DELMs)is used.A novel dataset consisting of 195 projects data is proposed to train the model and to evaluate the overall efficiency of the proposed model.The proposed DELM’s based model evaluations achieved 90.017%training accuracy having a value with 1.412×10^(-3) Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and 85.772%testing accuracy with 1.569×10^(-3) RMSE with five DELMs hidden layers.The results express that the suggested model has gained a notable recognition rate in comparison to any previous studies.The current study also concludes DELMs as the most applicable and useful technique for OSMO client’s project assessment.展开更多
This paper analyzed the extreme climatic characteristics of maize in Heilongjiang Province during different growth periods using the climate data and maize yield data from 1961 to 2020,and applied the principal compon...This paper analyzed the extreme climatic characteristics of maize in Heilongjiang Province during different growth periods using the climate data and maize yield data from 1961 to 2020,and applied the principal component analysis to analyze the extent of different extreme climatic events affecting maize yield.The results showed that the extreme cold events showed a decreasing trend,and the extreme warm events showed an increasing trend,and the trend of extreme precipitation change was not obvious.Maize yield was negatively correlated with TN10p(cold nights),TX10p(warm days)and T8(days below the lower temperature limit),and positively correlated with TN90p(warm nights).T34(days above the upper temperature limit)and TX90p(warm days)during the tasseling-milking period were negatively correlated with the maize yield,and this part was concentrated in the southern part of Heilongjiang Province.The maize yield was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation during the seedling period and negatively correlated with the extreme precipitation during the filling-maturity period of maize,but the correlations were not significant.The effects of extreme weather events on maize yield were higher during the seedling and the filling-maturity periods than those during the jointing-tasseling and the tasseling-milking periods.The effects of extreme precipitation on the maize yield were less than those of the extreme temperature during different growth periods in all regions,but the effects of the extreme precipitation on maize yield were significantly higher in the Songnen Plain than those in other regions.There were regional differences in the impact of climate extremes on maize during different growth periods.The area with the greater impact of climate extremes during the seedling period was the Songnen Plain,the areas with the greater impact of climate extremes during the jointing-tasseling period were the northern part of the Sanjiang Plain,and the areas with the greater impact of climate extremes during the filling-maturity period were the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the semi-mountainous areas of Mudanjiang.展开更多
Introduction: The purpose of this retrospective study is to identify medical conditions impacting neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely low birth weight and very low birth weight preterm infants at three years of a...Introduction: The purpose of this retrospective study is to identify medical conditions impacting neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely low birth weight and very low birth weight preterm infants at three years of age. Methods: Infants born in Banner Diamond Children’s University Medical Center, receiving services in the Newborn Intensive Care Unit, and attending Neonatal Developmental Follow-Up Clinic were identified. Participants received developmental assessment and follow-up from August 2012 through December 2018. Relevant clinical conditions during initial hospital stay and up to three years of age were obtained by reviewing medical and developmental records. Bayley Scales of Infant Toddler Development (Bayley III) was used to evaluate skill development at 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 months. Results: Data analysis did not reveal significant p-values;it did demonstrate that some predictor variables impact neurodevelopmental outcomes in cognitive, language and motor skill development. Conclusion: This retrospective study reports significant association between birth weight and low cognitive scores. Correlations were also found between gestational age and Total Language, and the longer an infant stayed in the NICU, the poorer the Total Language Scaled Scores at 8 to 12 months, 15 to 18 months, and 24 to 36 months. Birth weight was found to be the greatest predictor of poor motor scores.展开更多
文摘Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.
文摘The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.
基金the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175056)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(Grant No.21ZR1457600)Review and Summary Project of China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.FPZJ2023-044)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(Grant No.CXFZ2022J009)the Key Innovation Team of Climate Prediction of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CMA2023ZD03).
文摘In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62071411)the Research Foundation of Education Department of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.20B567).
文摘Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52272046,52090030,52090031,52122301,51973191)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(LR23E020003)+4 种基金Shanxi-Zheda Institute of New Materials and Chemical Engineering(2021SZ-FR004,2022SZ-TD011,2022SZ-TD012,2022SZ-TD014)Hundred Talents Program of Zhejiang University(188020*194231701/113,112300+1944223R3/003,112300+1944223R3/004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.226-2023-00023,226-2023-00082,2021FZZX001-17,K20200060)National Key R&D Program of China(NO.2022YFA1205300,NO.2022YFA1205301,NO.2020YFF0204400,NO.2022YFF0609801)“Pioneer”and“Leading Goose”R&D Program of Zhejiang 2023C01190.
文摘Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme alternating thermal/cold shock poses a significant challenge to reliability and safety.Here,we present the first investigation into the structural failure mechanism of GF during cyclic liquid nitrogen shocks(LNS),which reveals a bubbling process characterized by“permeation-diffusion-deformation”phenomenon.To overcome this long-standing structural weakness,a novel metal-nanoarmor strategy is proposed to construct a Cu-modified graphitic film(GF@Cu)with seamless heterointerface.This well-designed interface ensures superior structural stability for GF@Cu after hundreds of LNS cycles from 77 to 300 K.Moreover,GF@Cu maintains high thermal conductivity up to 1088 W m^(−1)K^(−1)with degradation of less than 5%even after 150 LNS cycles,superior to that of pure GF(50%degradation).Our work not only offers an opportunity to improve the robustness of graphitic films by the rational structural design but also facilitates the applications of thermally conductive carbon-based materials for future extreme thermal management in complex aerospace electronics.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2021YFB3700400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.52074030,51904021,and 52174294)。
文摘A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.
基金support of the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51909114)the Major Research Grant(Nos.U1806227,U1906231)from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC).
文摘Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U1960202).
文摘The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting mechanism(FOS-ELM)are applied in the prediction of the lime utilization ratio of dephosphorization in the basic oxygen furnace steelmaking process.The ELM model exhibites the best performance compared with the models of MLR and SVR.OS-ELM and FOS-ELM are applied for sequential learning and model updating.The optimal number of samples in validity term of the FOS-ELM model is determined to be 1500,with the smallest population mean absolute relative error(MARE)value of 0.058226 for the population.The variable importance analysis reveals lime weight,initial P content,and hot metal weight as the most important variables for the lime utilization ratio.The lime utilization ratio increases with the decrease in lime weight and the increases in the initial P content and hot metal weight.A prediction system based on FOS-ELM is applied in actual industrial production for one month.The hit ratios of the predicted lime utilization ratio in the error ranges of±1%,±3%,and±5%are 61.16%,90.63%,and 94.11%,respectively.The coefficient of determination,MARE,and root mean square error are 0.8670,0.06823,and 1.4265,respectively.The system exhibits desirable performance for applications in actual industrial pro-duction.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275013,42030611 and 42175008)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2021LASWB17)。
文摘An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52279016,51909106,51879108,42002247,41471160)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(No.2020A1515011038,2020A1515111054)+1 种基金Special Fund for Science and Technology Development in 2016 of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province,China(No.2016A020223007)the Project of Jinan Science and Technology Bureau(No.2021GXRC070)。
文摘Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62273359)the General Project of Hunan Natural Science Foundation of China(2022JJ30748)the National Major Scientific Research Equipment of China(61927803)。
文摘Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material charging control,optimize gas flow distribution and improve ironmaking efficiency.It has been challengeable to obtain high-quality optical burden surface images under high-temperature,high-dust,and extremelydim(less than 0.001 Lux)environment.Based on a novel endoscopic sensing detection idea,a reverse telephoto structure starlight imaging system with large field of view and large aperture is designed.Combined with a water-air dual cooling intelligent self-maintenance protection device and the imaging system,a starlight high-temperature industrial endoscope is developed to obtain clear optical burden surface images stably under the harsh environment.Based on an endoscope imaging area model,a material flow trajectory model and a gas-dust coupling distribution model,an optimal installation position and posture configuration method for the endoscope is proposed,which maximizes the effective imaging area and ensures large-area,safe and stable imaging of the device in a confined space.Industrial experiments and applications indicate that the proposed method obtains clear and reliable large-area optical burden surface images and reveals new BF conditions,providing key data support for green iron smelting.
文摘BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ingesting an enzyme-based chemical detergent,resulting in a serious pulmonary infection and severe malnutrition.Upper gastrointestinal imaging showed that he had an ETF,and endoscopy showed that he had extreme and severe esophageal stricture.This case was complex and difficult to treat.According to the domestic and foreign lite-rature,there is no universal treatment that is low-risk.CASE SUMMARY A patient came to our hospital with extreme ES,an ETF,and severe malnutrition complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis 1 mo after the consumption of an enzy-me-based detergent.The ES was serious,and the endoscope was unable to pass through the esophagus.We treated him by endoscopic incision method(EIM),esophageal stent placement(ESP),and endoscopic balloon dilation(EBD)by using the bronchoscope and gastroscope.This treatment not only closed the ETF,but also expanded the esophagus,with minimal trauma,greatly reducing the pain of the patient.According to the literature,there are no similar reported cases.CONCLUSION We report,for the first time,a patient with extreme CES complicated with ETF,where the endoscope could not be passed through his esophagus but he could be examined by bronchoscopy and treated by EIM,ESP,and EBD.
文摘This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in stroke patients. The study utilizes EVT to analyze the functional connection between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in a sample of 297 stroke patients. The 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure measurement curves for every 15 minutes are considered, acknowledging a censored rate of 40%. The findings reveal that the sample mean excess function exhibits a positive gradient above a specific threshold, confirming the heavy-tailed distribution of data in stroke patients with a positive extreme value index. Consequently, the estimated conditional extreme quantile indicates that stroke patients with higher blood pressure measurements face an elevated risk of recurrent stroke occurrence at an early stage. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between ambulatory blood pressure and recurrent stroke, providing valuable insights for clinical considerations and potential interventions in stroke management.
文摘This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130405)the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province(R2020SC04)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA2006030201)the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150410381).
文摘Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52022081)the Technology Project Funded by Clean Energy and Ecological Water Conservancy Engineering Research Center of China(QNZX-2019-03).
文摘The preceding and succeeding precipitation(PSP)often act together with extreme precipitation(EP),in turn,causing floods,which is an objective component that is often overlooked with regard to summer flood hazards in the arid region of Northwest China.In this study,event-based extreme precipitation(EEP)was defined as continuous precipitation that includes at least one day of EP.We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of four EEP types(front EEP,late EEP,balanced EEP,and single day EEP)across the Loess Plateau(LP)based on data acquired from 87 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019.Precipitation on the LP basically maintained a spatial pattern of"low in the northwest region and high in the southeast region",and EP over the last 10 a increased significantly.The cumulative precipitation percentage of single day EEP was 34%and was dominant for 60 a,while the cumulative precipitation percentage of front,late,and balanced EEP types associated with PSP accounted for 66%,which confirms to the connotation of EEP.The cumulative frequencies of front and late EEP types were 23%and 21%,respectively,while the cumulative frequency of balanced EEP had the lowest value at only 13%.Moreover,global warming could lead to more single day EEP across the LP,and continuous EEP could increase in the northwestern region and decrease in the eastern region in the future.The concept of process-oriented EP could facilitate further exploration of disaster-causing processes associated with different types of EP,and provide a theoretical basis for deriving precipitation disaster chains and construction of disaster cluster characteristics.
基金fully funded by Universiti Teknologi Malaysia under the UTM Fundamental Research Grant(UTMFR)with Cost Center No Q.K130000.2556.21H14.
文摘Software maintenance is the process of fixing,modifying,and improving software deliverables after they are delivered to the client.Clients can benefit from offshore software maintenance outsourcing(OSMO)in different ways,including time savings,cost savings,and improving the software quality and value.One of the hardest challenges for the OSMO vendor is to choose a suitable project among several clients’projects.The goal of the current study is to recommend a machine learning-based decision support system that OSMO vendors can utilize to forecast or assess the project of OSMO clients.The projects belong to OSMO vendors,having offices in developing countries while providing services to developed countries.In the current study,Extreme Learning Machine’s(ELM’s)variant called Deep Extreme Learning Machines(DELMs)is used.A novel dataset consisting of 195 projects data is proposed to train the model and to evaluate the overall efficiency of the proposed model.The proposed DELM’s based model evaluations achieved 90.017%training accuracy having a value with 1.412×10^(-3) Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and 85.772%testing accuracy with 1.569×10^(-3) RMSE with five DELMs hidden layers.The results express that the suggested model has gained a notable recognition rate in comparison to any previous studies.The current study also concludes DELMs as the most applicable and useful technique for OSMO client’s project assessment.
基金Supported by the"Thirteenth Five-Year"Key Research and Development Project Sub-project"Integration and Demonstration of Spring Maize Solar and Hot Water Resources Utilization Technology in Humid Areas of Heilongjiang Province"(2018YFD0300103-1)。
文摘This paper analyzed the extreme climatic characteristics of maize in Heilongjiang Province during different growth periods using the climate data and maize yield data from 1961 to 2020,and applied the principal component analysis to analyze the extent of different extreme climatic events affecting maize yield.The results showed that the extreme cold events showed a decreasing trend,and the extreme warm events showed an increasing trend,and the trend of extreme precipitation change was not obvious.Maize yield was negatively correlated with TN10p(cold nights),TX10p(warm days)and T8(days below the lower temperature limit),and positively correlated with TN90p(warm nights).T34(days above the upper temperature limit)and TX90p(warm days)during the tasseling-milking period were negatively correlated with the maize yield,and this part was concentrated in the southern part of Heilongjiang Province.The maize yield was positively correlated with the extreme precipitation during the seedling period and negatively correlated with the extreme precipitation during the filling-maturity period of maize,but the correlations were not significant.The effects of extreme weather events on maize yield were higher during the seedling and the filling-maturity periods than those during the jointing-tasseling and the tasseling-milking periods.The effects of extreme precipitation on the maize yield were less than those of the extreme temperature during different growth periods in all regions,but the effects of the extreme precipitation on maize yield were significantly higher in the Songnen Plain than those in other regions.There were regional differences in the impact of climate extremes on maize during different growth periods.The area with the greater impact of climate extremes during the seedling period was the Songnen Plain,the areas with the greater impact of climate extremes during the jointing-tasseling period were the northern part of the Sanjiang Plain,and the areas with the greater impact of climate extremes during the filling-maturity period were the Lesser Khingan Mountains and the semi-mountainous areas of Mudanjiang.
文摘Introduction: The purpose of this retrospective study is to identify medical conditions impacting neurodevelopmental outcomes of extremely low birth weight and very low birth weight preterm infants at three years of age. Methods: Infants born in Banner Diamond Children’s University Medical Center, receiving services in the Newborn Intensive Care Unit, and attending Neonatal Developmental Follow-Up Clinic were identified. Participants received developmental assessment and follow-up from August 2012 through December 2018. Relevant clinical conditions during initial hospital stay and up to three years of age were obtained by reviewing medical and developmental records. Bayley Scales of Infant Toddler Development (Bayley III) was used to evaluate skill development at 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 months. Results: Data analysis did not reveal significant p-values;it did demonstrate that some predictor variables impact neurodevelopmental outcomes in cognitive, language and motor skill development. Conclusion: This retrospective study reports significant association between birth weight and low cognitive scores. Correlations were also found between gestational age and Total Language, and the longer an infant stayed in the NICU, the poorer the Total Language Scaled Scores at 8 to 12 months, 15 to 18 months, and 24 to 36 months. Birth weight was found to be the greatest predictor of poor motor scores.
