The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in m...The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.展开更多
Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting ...Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.展开更多
Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal charac...Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.展开更多
The study of non-axisymmetric fuel dispersal and detonation can provide reference for the prevention of industrial cloud explosion accidents and the design of fuel air explosive(FAE).The concentration and detonation f...The study of non-axisymmetric fuel dispersal and detonation can provide reference for the prevention of industrial cloud explosion accidents and the design of fuel air explosive(FAE).The concentration and detonation fields of 85 kg cylindrical and fan-shaped fuel are investigated by experiments and numerical simulations.A dynamic model of the whole process for fuel dispersal and detonation is built.The concentration distribution of fuel is used as the initial condition to calculate the detonation stage,thus solving the initial value problem of detonation field.The phase and component changes of fuel cloud at different locations are compared.The fuel cloud is divided into directions of 0°,90°,135°and 180°.The results show that the maximum cloud radius is 20.94 m in 135°and the minimum is 12.04 m in 0°.The diameter of the detonation fireball is 53.6 m,and the peak temperature is 3455 K.The highest peak overpressure is 3.44 MPa in 0°and the lowest is 2.97 MPa in 135°.The proportion of liquid phase in 0°is22.90%,and the fuel loss is 11.8% and 9% higher than that in 135°and cylindrical charge,respectively.The stable propagation distance of blast wave in 135°is 42.50% longer than 0°and 28.37% longer than cylindrical charge.展开更多
Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics an...Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics and accumulation during grain filling in maize remains largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated grain N, P, and K concentrations in 206 recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of DH1M and T877 at six time points after pollination. We then calculated conditional phenotypic values at different time intervals to explore the dynamic characteristics of the N, P, and K concentrations. Abundant phenotypic variations were observed in the concentrations and net changes of these nutrients. Unconditional quantitative trait locus(QTL) mapping revealed 41 non-redundant QTLs, including 17, 16, and 14 for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively. Conditional QTL mapping uncovered 39 non-redundant QTLs related to net changes in the N, P, and K concentrations. By combining QTL, gene expression, co-expression analysis, and comparative genomic data, we identified 44, 36, and 44 candidate genes for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively, including GRMZM2G371058 encoding a Doftype zinc finger DNA-binding family protein, which was associated with the N concentration, and GRMZM2G113967encoding a CBL-interacting protein kinase, which was related to the K concentration. The results deepen our understanding of the genetic factors controlling N, P, and K accumulation during maize grain development and provide valuable genes for the genetic improvement of nutrient concentrations in maize.展开更多
BACKGROUND In vitro expansion to increase numbers of hematopoietic stem cells(HSCs)in cord blood could improve clinical efficacy of this vital resource.Nicotinamide(NAM)can promote HSC expansion ex vivo,but its effect...BACKGROUND In vitro expansion to increase numbers of hematopoietic stem cells(HSCs)in cord blood could improve clinical efficacy of this vital resource.Nicotinamide(NAM)can promote HSC expansion ex vivo,but its effect on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells(HSPCs,CD34^(+)CD38)and functional subtypes of HSCs-shortterm repopulating HSCs(ST-HSCs,CD34^(+)CD38CD45RACD49f^(+))and long-term repopulating HSCs(LT-HSCs,CD34^(+)CD38CD45RACD49f^(+)CD90^(+))is not yet known.As a sirtuin 1(SIRT1)inhibitor,NAM participates in regulating cell adhesion,polarity,migration,proliferation,and differentiation.However,SIRT1 exhibits dual effects by promoting or inhibiting differentiation in different tissues or cells.We propose that the concentration of NAM may influence proliferation,differentiation,and SIRT1 signaling of HSCs.AIM To evaluate the effects and underlying mechanisms of action of different concentrations of NAM on HSC proliferation and differentiation.METHODS CD34^(+)cells were purified from umbilical cord blood using MacsCD34 beads,and cultured for 10-12 d in a serum-free medium supplemented with cytokines,with different concentrations of NAM added according to experimental requirements.Flow cytometry was used to detect phenotype,cell cycle distribution,and apoptosis of the cultured cells.Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the transcription levels of target genes encoding stemness-related factors,che mokines,components of hypoxia pathways,and antioxidant enzymes.Dichloro-dihydro-fluorescein diacetate probes were used to evaluate intracellular production of reactive oxygen species(ROS).Determination of the effect of different culture conditions on the balance of cytokine by cytometric bead array.RESULTS Compared with the control group,the proportion and expansion folds of HSPCs(CD34^(+)CD38)incubated with 5 mmol/L or 10 mmol/L NAM were significantly increased(all P<0.05).The ST-HSCs ratio and fold expansion of the 5 mmol/L NAM group were significantly higher than those of the control and 10 mmol/L NAM groups(all P<0.001),whereas the LT-HSCs ratio and fold expansion of the 10 mmol/L NAM group were significantly higher than those of the other two groups(all P<0.05).When the NAM concentration was>10 mmol/L,cell viability significantly decreased.In addition,compared with the 5 mmol/L NAM group,the proportion of apoptotic cells in the 10 mmol/L NAM group increased and the proportion of cells in S and G2 phase decreased.Compared with the 5 mmol/L NAM group,the HSCs incubated with 10 mmol/L NAM exhibited significantly inhibited SIRT1 expression,increased intracellular ROS content,and downregulated expression of genes encoding antioxidant enzymes(superoxide dismutase 1,peroxiredoxin 1).CONCLUSION Low concentrations(5 mmol/L)of NAM can better regulate the balance between proliferation and differentiation,thereby promoting expansion of HSCs.These findings allow adjustment of NAM concentrations according to expansion needs.展开更多
In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in th...In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.展开更多
This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pres...This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in stroke patients. The study utilizes EVT to analyze the functional connection between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in a sample of 297 stroke patients. The 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure measurement curves for every 15 minutes are considered, acknowledging a censored rate of 40%. The findings reveal that the sample mean excess function exhibits a positive gradient above a specific threshold, confirming the heavy-tailed distribution of data in stroke patients with a positive extreme value index. Consequently, the estimated conditional extreme quantile indicates that stroke patients with higher blood pressure measurements face an elevated risk of recurrent stroke occurrence at an early stage. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between ambulatory blood pressure and recurrent stroke, providing valuable insights for clinical considerations and potential interventions in stroke management.展开更多
A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isotherm...A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.展开更多
Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme altern...Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme alternating thermal/cold shock poses a significant challenge to reliability and safety.Here,we present the first investigation into the structural failure mechanism of GF during cyclic liquid nitrogen shocks(LNS),which reveals a bubbling process characterized by“permeation-diffusion-deformation”phenomenon.To overcome this long-standing structural weakness,a novel metal-nanoarmor strategy is proposed to construct a Cu-modified graphitic film(GF@Cu)with seamless heterointerface.This well-designed interface ensures superior structural stability for GF@Cu after hundreds of LNS cycles from 77 to 300 K.Moreover,GF@Cu maintains high thermal conductivity up to 1088 W m^(−1)K^(−1)with degradation of less than 5%even after 150 LNS cycles,superior to that of pure GF(50%degradation).Our work not only offers an opportunity to improve the robustness of graphitic films by the rational structural design but also facilitates the applications of thermally conductive carbon-based materials for future extreme thermal management in complex aerospace electronics.展开更多
Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disast...Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.展开更多
Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material...Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material charging control,optimize gas flow distribution and improve ironmaking efficiency.It has been challengeable to obtain high-quality optical burden surface images under high-temperature,high-dust,and extremelydim(less than 0.001 Lux)environment.Based on a novel endoscopic sensing detection idea,a reverse telephoto structure starlight imaging system with large field of view and large aperture is designed.Combined with a water-air dual cooling intelligent self-maintenance protection device and the imaging system,a starlight high-temperature industrial endoscope is developed to obtain clear optical burden surface images stably under the harsh environment.Based on an endoscope imaging area model,a material flow trajectory model and a gas-dust coupling distribution model,an optimal installation position and posture configuration method for the endoscope is proposed,which maximizes the effective imaging area and ensures large-area,safe and stable imaging of the device in a confined space.Industrial experiments and applications indicate that the proposed method obtains clear and reliable large-area optical burden surface images and reveals new BF conditions,providing key data support for green iron smelting.展开更多
An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(...An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.展开更多
BACKGROUND Prior studies have noted great variability in the plasma levels of risperidone(RIS).Plasma concentrations of RIS and its active moiety are highly variable and depend on absorption,metabolism,and other predi...BACKGROUND Prior studies have noted great variability in the plasma levels of risperidone(RIS).Plasma concentrations of RIS and its active moiety are highly variable and depend on absorption,metabolism,and other predictors of metabolic dysregulation;however,these factors are poorly understood and the association between metabolic change and change in psychopathology is uncertain.AIM To ascertain the characteristics of chronic schizophrenic patients treated with RIS,and to assess their relationship with plasma RIS levels.METHODS This was a descriptive cross-sectional study of 50 patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic psychosis treated with RIS in a psychiatric service.The plasma concentrations of RIS and its metabolite 9-hydroxyrisperidone were determined by high performance liquid chromatography.The patients’demographic and clinical characteristics,and psychopathologies were assessed,and the associations between clinical variables and plasma levels of RIS were explored.RESULTS Male patients received higher doses of RIS than female ones,but plasma concentrations of RIS and risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone(active moiety)were higher in female patients.Age and the mean scores of the general psychopathology subscale of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS)were significantly positively correlated with plasma concentrations of risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone adjusted for weight and dose in all 50 subjects.In male subjects,we found a statistically significant positive correlation between the concentrations of risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone in plasma/(dose×kg)and age,mean PANSS negative subscale scores,mean PANSS general psychopathology subscale scores,and mean PANSS total scores.CONCLUSION Long-term use of RIS should be closely monitored in older patients and females to minimize the risk of high concentrations which could induce side effects.展开更多
The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting me...The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting mechanism(FOS-ELM)are applied in the prediction of the lime utilization ratio of dephosphorization in the basic oxygen furnace steelmaking process.The ELM model exhibites the best performance compared with the models of MLR and SVR.OS-ELM and FOS-ELM are applied for sequential learning and model updating.The optimal number of samples in validity term of the FOS-ELM model is determined to be 1500,with the smallest population mean absolute relative error(MARE)value of 0.058226 for the population.The variable importance analysis reveals lime weight,initial P content,and hot metal weight as the most important variables for the lime utilization ratio.The lime utilization ratio increases with the decrease in lime weight and the increases in the initial P content and hot metal weight.A prediction system based on FOS-ELM is applied in actual industrial production for one month.The hit ratios of the predicted lime utilization ratio in the error ranges of±1%,±3%,and±5%are 61.16%,90.63%,and 94.11%,respectively.The coefficient of determination,MARE,and root mean square error are 0.8670,0.06823,and 1.4265,respectively.The system exhibits desirable performance for applications in actual industrial pro-duction.展开更多
As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continu...As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .展开更多
This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment...This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.展开更多
BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ...BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ingesting an enzyme-based chemical detergent,resulting in a serious pulmonary infection and severe malnutrition.Upper gastrointestinal imaging showed that he had an ETF,and endoscopy showed that he had extreme and severe esophageal stricture.This case was complex and difficult to treat.According to the domestic and foreign lite-rature,there is no universal treatment that is low-risk.CASE SUMMARY A patient came to our hospital with extreme ES,an ETF,and severe malnutrition complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis 1 mo after the consumption of an enzy-me-based detergent.The ES was serious,and the endoscope was unable to pass through the esophagus.We treated him by endoscopic incision method(EIM),esophageal stent placement(ESP),and endoscopic balloon dilation(EBD)by using the bronchoscope and gastroscope.This treatment not only closed the ETF,but also expanded the esophagus,with minimal trauma,greatly reducing the pain of the patient.According to the literature,there are no similar reported cases.CONCLUSION We report,for the first time,a patient with extreme CES complicated with ETF,where the endoscope could not be passed through his esophagus but he could be examined by bronchoscopy and treated by EIM,ESP,and EBD.展开更多
Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of...Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.展开更多
文摘The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62071411)the Research Foundation of Education Department of Hunan Province,China(Grant No.20B567).
文摘Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.
基金support of the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51909114)the Major Research Grant(Nos.U1806227,U1906231)from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC).
文摘Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2021YFC3001204)。
文摘The study of non-axisymmetric fuel dispersal and detonation can provide reference for the prevention of industrial cloud explosion accidents and the design of fuel air explosive(FAE).The concentration and detonation fields of 85 kg cylindrical and fan-shaped fuel are investigated by experiments and numerical simulations.A dynamic model of the whole process for fuel dispersal and detonation is built.The concentration distribution of fuel is used as the initial condition to calculate the detonation stage,thus solving the initial value problem of detonation field.The phase and component changes of fuel cloud at different locations are compared.The fuel cloud is divided into directions of 0°,90°,135°and 180°.The results show that the maximum cloud radius is 20.94 m in 135°and the minimum is 12.04 m in 0°.The diameter of the detonation fireball is 53.6 m,and the peak temperature is 3455 K.The highest peak overpressure is 3.44 MPa in 0°and the lowest is 2.97 MPa in 135°.The proportion of liquid phase in 0°is22.90%,and the fuel loss is 11.8% and 9% higher than that in 135°and cylindrical charge,respectively.The stable propagation distance of blast wave in 135°is 42.50% longer than 0°and 28.37% longer than cylindrical charge.
基金supported by the Seed Industry Revitalization Project of Jiangsu Province,China(JBGS[2021]009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32061143030 and 31972487)+3 种基金the Jiangsu Province University Basic Science Research Project,China(21KJA210002)the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province,China(BE2022343)the Innovative Research Team of Universities in Jiangsu Province,China,the High-end Talent Project of Yangzhou University,China,the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD),Chinathe Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Province,China。
文摘Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics and accumulation during grain filling in maize remains largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated grain N, P, and K concentrations in 206 recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of DH1M and T877 at six time points after pollination. We then calculated conditional phenotypic values at different time intervals to explore the dynamic characteristics of the N, P, and K concentrations. Abundant phenotypic variations were observed in the concentrations and net changes of these nutrients. Unconditional quantitative trait locus(QTL) mapping revealed 41 non-redundant QTLs, including 17, 16, and 14 for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively. Conditional QTL mapping uncovered 39 non-redundant QTLs related to net changes in the N, P, and K concentrations. By combining QTL, gene expression, co-expression analysis, and comparative genomic data, we identified 44, 36, and 44 candidate genes for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively, including GRMZM2G371058 encoding a Doftype zinc finger DNA-binding family protein, which was associated with the N concentration, and GRMZM2G113967encoding a CBL-interacting protein kinase, which was related to the K concentration. The results deepen our understanding of the genetic factors controlling N, P, and K accumulation during maize grain development and provide valuable genes for the genetic improvement of nutrient concentrations in maize.
基金the Science and Technology Department of Shanxi Province,No.YDZJSX2021B009Health Commission of Shanxi Province,No.2021XM07Shanxi Provincial Department of Education,No.2023KY380.
文摘BACKGROUND In vitro expansion to increase numbers of hematopoietic stem cells(HSCs)in cord blood could improve clinical efficacy of this vital resource.Nicotinamide(NAM)can promote HSC expansion ex vivo,but its effect on hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells(HSPCs,CD34^(+)CD38)and functional subtypes of HSCs-shortterm repopulating HSCs(ST-HSCs,CD34^(+)CD38CD45RACD49f^(+))and long-term repopulating HSCs(LT-HSCs,CD34^(+)CD38CD45RACD49f^(+)CD90^(+))is not yet known.As a sirtuin 1(SIRT1)inhibitor,NAM participates in regulating cell adhesion,polarity,migration,proliferation,and differentiation.However,SIRT1 exhibits dual effects by promoting or inhibiting differentiation in different tissues or cells.We propose that the concentration of NAM may influence proliferation,differentiation,and SIRT1 signaling of HSCs.AIM To evaluate the effects and underlying mechanisms of action of different concentrations of NAM on HSC proliferation and differentiation.METHODS CD34^(+)cells were purified from umbilical cord blood using MacsCD34 beads,and cultured for 10-12 d in a serum-free medium supplemented with cytokines,with different concentrations of NAM added according to experimental requirements.Flow cytometry was used to detect phenotype,cell cycle distribution,and apoptosis of the cultured cells.Real-time polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the transcription levels of target genes encoding stemness-related factors,che mokines,components of hypoxia pathways,and antioxidant enzymes.Dichloro-dihydro-fluorescein diacetate probes were used to evaluate intracellular production of reactive oxygen species(ROS).Determination of the effect of different culture conditions on the balance of cytokine by cytometric bead array.RESULTS Compared with the control group,the proportion and expansion folds of HSPCs(CD34^(+)CD38)incubated with 5 mmol/L or 10 mmol/L NAM were significantly increased(all P<0.05).The ST-HSCs ratio and fold expansion of the 5 mmol/L NAM group were significantly higher than those of the control and 10 mmol/L NAM groups(all P<0.001),whereas the LT-HSCs ratio and fold expansion of the 10 mmol/L NAM group were significantly higher than those of the other two groups(all P<0.05).When the NAM concentration was>10 mmol/L,cell viability significantly decreased.In addition,compared with the 5 mmol/L NAM group,the proportion of apoptotic cells in the 10 mmol/L NAM group increased and the proportion of cells in S and G2 phase decreased.Compared with the 5 mmol/L NAM group,the HSCs incubated with 10 mmol/L NAM exhibited significantly inhibited SIRT1 expression,increased intracellular ROS content,and downregulated expression of genes encoding antioxidant enzymes(superoxide dismutase 1,peroxiredoxin 1).CONCLUSION Low concentrations(5 mmol/L)of NAM can better regulate the balance between proliferation and differentiation,thereby promoting expansion of HSCs.These findings allow adjustment of NAM concentrations according to expansion needs.
基金the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175056)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(Grant No.21ZR1457600)Review and Summary Project of China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.FPZJ2023-044)the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project(Grant No.CXFZ2022J009)the Key Innovation Team of Climate Prediction of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CMA2023ZD03).
文摘In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.
文摘This paper aims to explore the application of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in estimating the conditional extreme quantile for time-to-event outcomes by examining the functional relationship between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in stroke patients. The study utilizes EVT to analyze the functional connection between ambulatory blood pressure trajectories and clinical outcomes in a sample of 297 stroke patients. The 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure measurement curves for every 15 minutes are considered, acknowledging a censored rate of 40%. The findings reveal that the sample mean excess function exhibits a positive gradient above a specific threshold, confirming the heavy-tailed distribution of data in stroke patients with a positive extreme value index. Consequently, the estimated conditional extreme quantile indicates that stroke patients with higher blood pressure measurements face an elevated risk of recurrent stroke occurrence at an early stage. This research contributes to the understanding of the relationship between ambulatory blood pressure and recurrent stroke, providing valuable insights for clinical considerations and potential interventions in stroke management.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No.2021YFB3700400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.52074030,51904021,and 52174294)。
文摘A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52272046,52090030,52090031,52122301,51973191)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(LR23E020003)+4 种基金Shanxi-Zheda Institute of New Materials and Chemical Engineering(2021SZ-FR004,2022SZ-TD011,2022SZ-TD012,2022SZ-TD014)Hundred Talents Program of Zhejiang University(188020*194231701/113,112300+1944223R3/003,112300+1944223R3/004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.226-2023-00023,226-2023-00082,2021FZZX001-17,K20200060)National Key R&D Program of China(NO.2022YFA1205300,NO.2022YFA1205301,NO.2020YFF0204400,NO.2022YFF0609801)“Pioneer”and“Leading Goose”R&D Program of Zhejiang 2023C01190.
文摘Highly thermally conductive graphitic film(GF)materials have become a competitive solution for the thermal management of high-power electronic devices.However,their catastrophic structural failure under extreme alternating thermal/cold shock poses a significant challenge to reliability and safety.Here,we present the first investigation into the structural failure mechanism of GF during cyclic liquid nitrogen shocks(LNS),which reveals a bubbling process characterized by“permeation-diffusion-deformation”phenomenon.To overcome this long-standing structural weakness,a novel metal-nanoarmor strategy is proposed to construct a Cu-modified graphitic film(GF@Cu)with seamless heterointerface.This well-designed interface ensures superior structural stability for GF@Cu after hundreds of LNS cycles from 77 to 300 K.Moreover,GF@Cu maintains high thermal conductivity up to 1088 W m^(−1)K^(−1)with degradation of less than 5%even after 150 LNS cycles,superior to that of pure GF(50%degradation).Our work not only offers an opportunity to improve the robustness of graphitic films by the rational structural design but also facilitates the applications of thermally conductive carbon-based materials for future extreme thermal management in complex aerospace electronics.
文摘Extreme weather and climatic phenomena, such as heatwaves, cold waves, floods and droughts, are expected to become more common and have a significant impact on ecosystems, biodiversity, and society. Devastating disasters are mostly caused by record-breaking extreme events, which are becoming more frequent throughout the world, including Tanzania. A clear global signal of an increase in warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights has been observed. The present study assessed the trends of annual extreme temperature indices during the period of 1982 to 2022 from 29 meteorological stations in which the daily minimum and maximum data were obtained from NASA/POWER. The Mann-Kendall and Sen slope estimator were employed for trend analysis calculation over the study area. The analyzed data have indicated for the most parts, the country has an increase in warm days and nights, extreme warm days and nights and a decrease in cold days and nights, extreme cold days and nights. It has been disclosed that the number of warm nights and days is on the rise, with the number of warm nights trending significantly faster than the number of warm days. The percentile-based extreme temperature indices exhibited more noticeable changes than the absolute extreme temperature indices. Specifically, 66% and 97% of stations demonstrated positive increasing trends in warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p), respectively. Conversely, the cold indices demonstrated 41% and 97% negative decreasing trends in TX10p and TN10p, respectively. The results are seemingly consistent with the observed temperature extreme trends in various parts of the world as indicated in IPCC reports.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62273359)the General Project of Hunan Natural Science Foundation of China(2022JJ30748)the National Major Scientific Research Equipment of China(61927803)。
文摘Blast furnace(BF)burden surface contains the most abundant,intuitive and credible smelting information and acquiring high-definition and high-brightness optical images of which is essential to realize precise material charging control,optimize gas flow distribution and improve ironmaking efficiency.It has been challengeable to obtain high-quality optical burden surface images under high-temperature,high-dust,and extremelydim(less than 0.001 Lux)environment.Based on a novel endoscopic sensing detection idea,a reverse telephoto structure starlight imaging system with large field of view and large aperture is designed.Combined with a water-air dual cooling intelligent self-maintenance protection device and the imaging system,a starlight high-temperature industrial endoscope is developed to obtain clear optical burden surface images stably under the harsh environment.Based on an endoscope imaging area model,a material flow trajectory model and a gas-dust coupling distribution model,an optimal installation position and posture configuration method for the endoscope is proposed,which maximizes the effective imaging area and ensures large-area,safe and stable imaging of the device in a confined space.Industrial experiments and applications indicate that the proposed method obtains clear and reliable large-area optical burden surface images and reveals new BF conditions,providing key data support for green iron smelting.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275013,42030611 and 42175008)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2021LASWB17)。
文摘An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.
基金Supported by Shanghai Civil Administration Bureau,No.8-2-50.
文摘BACKGROUND Prior studies have noted great variability in the plasma levels of risperidone(RIS).Plasma concentrations of RIS and its active moiety are highly variable and depend on absorption,metabolism,and other predictors of metabolic dysregulation;however,these factors are poorly understood and the association between metabolic change and change in psychopathology is uncertain.AIM To ascertain the characteristics of chronic schizophrenic patients treated with RIS,and to assess their relationship with plasma RIS levels.METHODS This was a descriptive cross-sectional study of 50 patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic psychosis treated with RIS in a psychiatric service.The plasma concentrations of RIS and its metabolite 9-hydroxyrisperidone were determined by high performance liquid chromatography.The patients’demographic and clinical characteristics,and psychopathologies were assessed,and the associations between clinical variables and plasma levels of RIS were explored.RESULTS Male patients received higher doses of RIS than female ones,but plasma concentrations of RIS and risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone(active moiety)were higher in female patients.Age and the mean scores of the general psychopathology subscale of the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS)were significantly positively correlated with plasma concentrations of risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone adjusted for weight and dose in all 50 subjects.In male subjects,we found a statistically significant positive correlation between the concentrations of risperidone+9-hydroxyrisperidone in plasma/(dose×kg)and age,mean PANSS negative subscale scores,mean PANSS general psychopathology subscale scores,and mean PANSS total scores.CONCLUSION Long-term use of RIS should be closely monitored in older patients and females to minimize the risk of high concentrations which could induce side effects.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.U1960202).
文摘The machine learning models of multiple linear regression(MLR),support vector regression(SVR),and extreme learning ma-chine(ELM)and the proposed ELM models of online sequential ELM(OS-ELM)and OS-ELM with forgetting mechanism(FOS-ELM)are applied in the prediction of the lime utilization ratio of dephosphorization in the basic oxygen furnace steelmaking process.The ELM model exhibites the best performance compared with the models of MLR and SVR.OS-ELM and FOS-ELM are applied for sequential learning and model updating.The optimal number of samples in validity term of the FOS-ELM model is determined to be 1500,with the smallest population mean absolute relative error(MARE)value of 0.058226 for the population.The variable importance analysis reveals lime weight,initial P content,and hot metal weight as the most important variables for the lime utilization ratio.The lime utilization ratio increases with the decrease in lime weight and the increases in the initial P content and hot metal weight.A prediction system based on FOS-ELM is applied in actual industrial production for one month.The hit ratios of the predicted lime utilization ratio in the error ranges of±1%,±3%,and±5%are 61.16%,90.63%,and 94.11%,respectively.The coefficient of determination,MARE,and root mean square error are 0.8670,0.06823,and 1.4265,respectively.The system exhibits desirable performance for applications in actual industrial pro-duction.
文摘As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .
文摘This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.
文摘BACKGROUND At present,there is no unified and effective treatment for extreme corrosive esophageal stenosis(CES)with esophagotracheal fistula(ETF).This case had extreme and severe esophageal stenosis(ES)and ETF after ingesting an enzyme-based chemical detergent,resulting in a serious pulmonary infection and severe malnutrition.Upper gastrointestinal imaging showed that he had an ETF,and endoscopy showed that he had extreme and severe esophageal stricture.This case was complex and difficult to treat.According to the domestic and foreign lite-rature,there is no universal treatment that is low-risk.CASE SUMMARY A patient came to our hospital with extreme ES,an ETF,and severe malnutrition complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis 1 mo after the consumption of an enzy-me-based detergent.The ES was serious,and the endoscope was unable to pass through the esophagus.We treated him by endoscopic incision method(EIM),esophageal stent placement(ESP),and endoscopic balloon dilation(EBD)by using the bronchoscope and gastroscope.This treatment not only closed the ETF,but also expanded the esophagus,with minimal trauma,greatly reducing the pain of the patient.According to the literature,there are no similar reported cases.CONCLUSION We report,for the first time,a patient with extreme CES complicated with ETF,where the endoscope could not be passed through his esophagus but he could be examined by bronchoscopy and treated by EIM,ESP,and EBD.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52279016,51909106,51879108,42002247,41471160)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(No.2020A1515011038,2020A1515111054)+1 种基金Special Fund for Science and Technology Development in 2016 of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province,China(No.2016A020223007)the Project of Jinan Science and Technology Bureau(No.2021GXRC070)。
文摘Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.
