Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantil...Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.展开更多
Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly b...Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.展开更多
Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient...Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.展开更多
Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological foreca...Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.展开更多
Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational...Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.展开更多
The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are discovered.This also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total ...The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are discovered.This also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC),which neural network methods have recently been widely used.However,the results are mainly presented for a limited set of meridians.This paper examines the longitudinal dependence of the TEC forecast accuracy in the equatorial zone.In this case,the methods are used that provided the best accuracy on three meridians:European(30°E),Southeastern(110°E)and American(75°W).Results for the stations considered are analyzed as a function of longitude using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Global Ionosphere Map(JPL GIM)for 2015.These results are for 2 h ahead and 24 h ahead forecast.It was found that in this case,based on the metric values,three groups of architectures can be distinguished.The first group included long short-term memory(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and temporal convolutional networks(TCN)models as a part of unidirectional deep learning models;the second group is based on the recurrent models from the first group,which were supplemented with a bidirectional algorithm,increasing the TEC forecasting accuracy by 2-3 times.The third group,which includes the bidirectional TCN architecture(BiTCN),provided the highest accuracy.For this architecture,according to data obtained for 9 equatorial stations,practical independence of the TEC prediction accuracy from longitude was observed under the following metrics(Mean Absolute Error MAE,Root Mean Square Error RMSE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE):MAE(2 h)is 0.2 TECU approximately;MAE(24 h)is 0.4 TECU approximately;RMSE(2 h)is less than 0.5 TECU except Niue station(RMSE(2 h)is 1 TECU approximately);RMSE(24 h)is in the range of 1.0-1.7 TECU;MAPE(2 h)<1%except Darwin station,MAPE(24 h)<2%.This result was confirmed by data from additional 5 stations that formed latitudinal chains in the equatorial part of the three meridians.The complete correspondence of the observational and predicted TEC values is illustrated using several stations for disturbed conditions on December 19-22,2015,which included the strongest magnetic storm in the second half of the year(min Dst=-155 nT).展开更多
Artificial intelligence(AI)has already demonstrated its proficiency at difficult scientific tasks like predicting how proteins will fold and identifying new astronomical objects in masses of observational data[1].Now,...Artificial intelligence(AI)has already demonstrated its proficiency at difficult scientific tasks like predicting how proteins will fold and identifying new astronomical objects in masses of observational data[1].Now,recent results suggest that AI also excels at weather forecasting.For global predictions,GraphCast,an AI system developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind(London,UK),outperforms the state-of-the-art model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),providing more accurate projections of variables such as temperature and humidity 90%of the time[2,3].Other AI systems,including Pangu-Weather from the Chinese tech company Huawei(Shenzhen,China)[4],can also match or beat traditional global forecasting models.展开更多
To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studie...To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studied to make predictions accurate.However,the permeability field,well patterns,and development regime must all be similar for two reservoirs to be considered in the same class.This results in very few available experiences from other reservoirs even though there is a lot of historical information on numerous reservoirs because it is difficult to find such similar reservoirs.This paper proposes a learn-to-learn method,which can better utilize a vast amount of historical data from various reservoirs.Intuitively,the proposed method first learns how to learn samples before directly learning rules in samples.Technically,by utilizing gradients from networks with independent parameters and copied structure in each class of reservoirs,the proposed network obtains the optimal shared initial parameters which are regarded as transferable information across different classes.Based on that,the network is able to predict future production indices for the target reservoir by only training with very limited samples collected from reservoirs in the same class.Two cases further demonstrate its superiority in accuracy to other widely-used network methods.展开更多
Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast s...Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.展开更多
In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power su...In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.展开更多
Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning mode...Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.展开更多
This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that co...This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.展开更多
Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,re...Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.展开更多
Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approache...Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.展开更多
Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article...Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.展开更多
Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weathe...Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.展开更多
Due to various technical issues,existing numerical weather prediction(NWP)models often perform poorly at forecasting rainfall in the first several hours.To correct the bias of an NWP model and improve the accuracy of ...Due to various technical issues,existing numerical weather prediction(NWP)models often perform poorly at forecasting rainfall in the first several hours.To correct the bias of an NWP model and improve the accuracy of short-range precipitation forecasting,we propose a deep learning-based approach called UNet Mask,which combines NWP forecasts with the output of a convolutional neural network called UNet.The UNet Mask involves training the UNet on historical data from the NWP model and gridded rainfall observations for 6-hour precipitation forecasting.The overlap of the UNet output and the NWP forecasts at the same rainfall threshold yields a mask.The UNet Mask blends the UNet output and the NWP forecasts by taking the maximum between them and passing through the mask,which provides the corrected 6-hour rainfall forecasts.We evaluated UNet Mask on a test set and in real-time verification.The results showed that UNet Mask outperforms the NWP model in 6-hour precipitation prediction by reducing the FAR and improving CSI scores.Sensitivity tests also showed that different small rainfall thresholds applied to the UNet and the NWP model have different effects on UNet Mask's forecast performance.This study shows that UNet Mask is a promising approach for improving rainfall forecasting of NWP models.展开更多
This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weat...This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.展开更多
Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk...Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.展开更多
Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic...Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No.42375192)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (CMA-CCSP+1 种基金Project No.QBZ202315)support by the Vector Stiftung through the Young Investigator Group"Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting."
文摘Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.
基金supported in part by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.8222051)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3004103)+2 种基金the National Natural Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275003 and 42275012)the China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team(Grant Nos.CMA2022ZD04 and CMA2022ZD07)the Beijing Science and Technology Program(Grant No.Z221100005222012).
文摘Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42205149)Zhongwang WEI was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075158)+1 种基金Wei SHANGGUAN was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41975122)Yonggen ZHANG was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin(Grant No.20JCQNJC01660).
文摘Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3700701)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775146,42061134009)+1 种基金USTC Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative(YD2080002007)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB41000000).
文摘Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975137,42175012,and 41475097)the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2018YFF0300103).
文摘Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.
基金financially supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation(State contract GZ0110/23-10-IF)。
文摘The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are discovered.This also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC),which neural network methods have recently been widely used.However,the results are mainly presented for a limited set of meridians.This paper examines the longitudinal dependence of the TEC forecast accuracy in the equatorial zone.In this case,the methods are used that provided the best accuracy on three meridians:European(30°E),Southeastern(110°E)and American(75°W).Results for the stations considered are analyzed as a function of longitude using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Global Ionosphere Map(JPL GIM)for 2015.These results are for 2 h ahead and 24 h ahead forecast.It was found that in this case,based on the metric values,three groups of architectures can be distinguished.The first group included long short-term memory(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and temporal convolutional networks(TCN)models as a part of unidirectional deep learning models;the second group is based on the recurrent models from the first group,which were supplemented with a bidirectional algorithm,increasing the TEC forecasting accuracy by 2-3 times.The third group,which includes the bidirectional TCN architecture(BiTCN),provided the highest accuracy.For this architecture,according to data obtained for 9 equatorial stations,practical independence of the TEC prediction accuracy from longitude was observed under the following metrics(Mean Absolute Error MAE,Root Mean Square Error RMSE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE):MAE(2 h)is 0.2 TECU approximately;MAE(24 h)is 0.4 TECU approximately;RMSE(2 h)is less than 0.5 TECU except Niue station(RMSE(2 h)is 1 TECU approximately);RMSE(24 h)is in the range of 1.0-1.7 TECU;MAPE(2 h)<1%except Darwin station,MAPE(24 h)<2%.This result was confirmed by data from additional 5 stations that formed latitudinal chains in the equatorial part of the three meridians.The complete correspondence of the observational and predicted TEC values is illustrated using several stations for disturbed conditions on December 19-22,2015,which included the strongest magnetic storm in the second half of the year(min Dst=-155 nT).
文摘Artificial intelligence(AI)has already demonstrated its proficiency at difficult scientific tasks like predicting how proteins will fold and identifying new astronomical objects in masses of observational data[1].Now,recent results suggest that AI also excels at weather forecasting.For global predictions,GraphCast,an AI system developed by Google subsidiary DeepMind(London,UK),outperforms the state-of-the-art model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),providing more accurate projections of variables such as temperature and humidity 90%of the time[2,3].Other AI systems,including Pangu-Weather from the Chinese tech company Huawei(Shenzhen,China)[4],can also match or beat traditional global forecasting models.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52274057,52074340 and 51874335the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNPC under Grant ZD2019-183-008+2 种基金the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNOOC under Grant CCL2022RCPS0397RSNthe Science and Technology Support Plan for Youth Innovation of University in Shandong Province under Grant 2019KJH002111 Project under Grant B08028.
文摘To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studied to make predictions accurate.However,the permeability field,well patterns,and development regime must all be similar for two reservoirs to be considered in the same class.This results in very few available experiences from other reservoirs even though there is a lot of historical information on numerous reservoirs because it is difficult to find such similar reservoirs.This paper proposes a learn-to-learn method,which can better utilize a vast amount of historical data from various reservoirs.Intuitively,the proposed method first learns how to learn samples before directly learning rules in samples.Technically,by utilizing gradients from networks with independent parameters and copied structure in each class of reservoirs,the proposed network obtains the optimal shared initial parameters which are regarded as transferable information across different classes.Based on that,the network is able to predict future production indices for the target reservoir by only training with very limited samples collected from reservoirs in the same class.Two cases further demonstrate its superiority in accuracy to other widely-used network methods.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42192562 and 42030605)。
文摘Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62063016).
文摘In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.
基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS,Grant/Award Number:2021103Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant/Award Number:XDC02060500。
文摘Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42030605)the High-Performance Computing of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.
文摘Today,urban traffic,growing populations,and dense transportation networks are contributing to an increase in traffic incidents.These incidents include traffic accidents,vehicle breakdowns,fires,and traffic disputes,resulting in long waiting times,high carbon emissions,and other undesirable situations.It is vital to estimate incident response times quickly and accurately after traffic incidents occur for the success of incident-related planning and response activities.This study presents a model for forecasting the traffic incident duration of traffic events with high precision.The proposed model goes through a 4-stage process using various features to predict the duration of four different traffic events and presents a feature reduction approach to enable real-time data collection and prediction.In the first stage,the dataset consisting of 24,431 data points and 75 variables is prepared by data collection,merging,missing data processing and data cleaning.In the second stage,models such as Decision Trees(DT),K-Nearest Neighbour(KNN),Random Forest(RF)and Support Vector Machines(SVM)are used and hyperparameter optimisation is performed with GridSearchCV.In the third stage,feature selection and reduction are performed and real-time data are used.In the last stage,model performance with 14 variables is evaluated with metrics such as accuracy,precision,recall,F1-score,MCC,confusion matrix and SHAP.The RF model outperforms other models with an accuracy of 98.5%.The study’s prediction results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic prediction model can achieve a high level of success.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China under Grant (No.LY21F020003)Zhejiang Science and Technology Plan Project (No.2021C02060)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou City University (No.X-202206).
文摘Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.
文摘Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.
文摘Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U1811464)the Hydraulic Innovation Project of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province of China(Grant No.2022-01)the Guangzhou Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.202201011472)。
文摘Due to various technical issues,existing numerical weather prediction(NWP)models often perform poorly at forecasting rainfall in the first several hours.To correct the bias of an NWP model and improve the accuracy of short-range precipitation forecasting,we propose a deep learning-based approach called UNet Mask,which combines NWP forecasts with the output of a convolutional neural network called UNet.The UNet Mask involves training the UNet on historical data from the NWP model and gridded rainfall observations for 6-hour precipitation forecasting.The overlap of the UNet output and the NWP forecasts at the same rainfall threshold yields a mask.The UNet Mask blends the UNet output and the NWP forecasts by taking the maximum between them and passing through the mask,which provides the corrected 6-hour rainfall forecasts.We evaluated UNet Mask on a test set and in real-time verification.The results showed that UNet Mask outperforms the NWP model in 6-hour precipitation prediction by reducing the FAR and improving CSI scores.Sensitivity tests also showed that different small rainfall thresholds applied to the UNet and the NWP model have different effects on UNet Mask's forecast performance.This study shows that UNet Mask is a promising approach for improving rainfall forecasting of NWP models.
文摘This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.
文摘Tunnel boring machines(TBMs)have been widely utilised in tunnel construction due to their high efficiency and reliability.Accurately predicting TBM performance can improve project time management,cost control,and risk management.This study aims to use deep learning to develop real-time models for predicting the penetration rate(PR).The models are built using data from the Changsha metro project,and their performances are evaluated using unseen data from the Zhengzhou Metro project.In one-step forecast,the predicted penetration rate follows the trend of the measured penetration rate in both training and testing.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is compared with the recurrent neural network(RNN)model.The results show that univariate models,which only consider historical penetration rate itself,perform better than multivariate models that take into account multiple geological and operational parameters(GEO and OP).Next,an RNN variant combining time series of penetration rate with the last-step geological and operational parameters is developed,and it performs better than other models.A sensitivity analysis shows that the penetration rate is the most important parameter,while other parameters have a smaller impact on time series forecasting.It is also found that smoothed data are easier to predict with high accuracy.Nevertheless,over-simplified data can lose real characteristics in time series.In conclusion,the RNN variant can accurately predict the next-step penetration rate,and data smoothing is crucial in time series forecasting.This study provides practical guidance for TBM performance forecasting in practical engineering.
基金supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Plan,Sustainable Development Technology Special Project (Dual-Carbon Special Project),Research and Development of Intelligent Virtual Power Plant Technology (KCXST20221021111402006)the Science and Technology project of Tianjin,China (No.22YFYSHZ00330).
文摘Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
