利用2005-2015年安徽省内1162个站点观测资料简要分析了短时强降水的时空分布特征,并利用中国气象局CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)近实时降水资料检验2012-2015年安徽省WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式对短时强降...利用2005-2015年安徽省内1162个站点观测资料简要分析了短时强降水的时空分布特征,并利用中国气象局CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)近实时降水资料检验2012-2015年安徽省WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式对短时强降水的预报性能,探讨不同空间插值方法、检验方法对预报效果的影响,以评估模式预报短时强降水的应用价值和使用注意事项。结果表明:短时强降水主要发生在大别山区和皖南山区;一年中发生次数呈单峰分布,集中于6-8月;日变化呈双峰状,强峰为北京时间下午15:00-19:00,弱峰为06:00-09:00,两个低谷分别为01:00、12:00前后。在两分类评分TS(Threat Score)检验中,各个季节评分均十分低,插值方法对TS评分影响不大。邻域法FSS评分(Fractions Skill Score)检验中,春季FSS评分低,最高仅可达15%,空间窗、时间窗、时间超前或滞后变化对FSS评分的影响不如夏季、秋季明显;夏季,不考虑时间窗时,单独的时间超前或滞后不能提高预报准确率;秋季,模式分别滞后1h或滞后2h预报结果优于同期预报,而超前1h或超前2h预报结果低于同期预报,表明秋季WRF模式对短时强降水的预报有一定滞后性。展开更多
Statistical methods for category（yes/no） forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called ＂double...Statistical methods for category（yes/no） forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called ＂double-penalty＂ problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score（FSS）, a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and forecasts.We applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System） regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate correlation.Compared with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.展开更多
A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode （BGM）. Meanwhile, the probability matched mean （PMM） and neighborhood ensemble probability （NEP...A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode （BGM）. Meanwhile, the probability matched mean （PMM） and neighborhood ensemble probability （NEP） methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipita- tion tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the pre- cipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score （FSS） results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of pre- cipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could im- prove precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.展开更多
文摘利用2005-2015年安徽省内1162个站点观测资料简要分析了短时强降水的时空分布特征,并利用中国气象局CLDAS(CMA Land Data Assimilation System)近实时降水资料检验2012-2015年安徽省WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式对短时强降水的预报性能,探讨不同空间插值方法、检验方法对预报效果的影响,以评估模式预报短时强降水的应用价值和使用注意事项。结果表明:短时强降水主要发生在大别山区和皖南山区;一年中发生次数呈单峰分布,集中于6-8月;日变化呈双峰状,强峰为北京时间下午15:00-19:00,弱峰为06:00-09:00,两个低谷分别为01:00、12:00前后。在两分类评分TS(Threat Score)检验中,各个季节评分均十分低,插值方法对TS评分影响不大。邻域法FSS评分(Fractions Skill Score)检验中,春季FSS评分低,最高仅可达15%,空间窗、时间窗、时间超前或滞后变化对FSS评分的影响不如夏季、秋季明显;夏季,不考虑时间窗时,单独的时间超前或滞后不能提高预报准确率;秋季,模式分别滞后1h或滞后2h预报结果优于同期预报,而超前1h或超前2h预报结果低于同期预报,表明秋季WRF模式对短时强降水的预报有一定滞后性。
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(2017YFA0604500)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506002)+1 种基金China Meteorological Administration Special Project for Forecasters(YBGJXM(2017)06)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41305091)
文摘Statistical methods for category（yes/no） forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called ＂double-penalty＂ problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score（FSS）, a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and forecasts.We applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System） regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate correlation.Compared with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research(NJCAR2016MS02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41205073,41275012,and 41275099)
文摘A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode （BGM）. Meanwhile, the probability matched mean （PMM） and neighborhood ensemble probability （NEP） methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipita- tion tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the pre- cipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score （FSS） results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of pre- cipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could im- prove precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.
