Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful fo...Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month(from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination(R^2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, with the largest coefficient of determination(R^2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC(BIC=3.645) value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations(P_(Box-Ljung(Q))=0.299). The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.展开更多
In this paper,we formulate the transmission phenomena of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD)through non-integer derivative.We interrogate the biological meaningful results of the recommended system of HFMD.The basic reprodu...In this paper,we formulate the transmission phenomena of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD)through non-integer derivative.We interrogate the biological meaningful results of the recommended system of HFMD.The basic reproduction number is determined through next generation method and the impact of different parameters on the reproduction number is examined with the help of partial rank correlation coeficient(PRCC)technique.In addition,we concentrated on qualitative analysis and dynamical behavior of HFMD dynamics.Banach's and Schaefer's fixed-point theorems are used to analyze the uniqueness and existence of the solution of the proposed HFMD model.The HFMD system's Ulam-Hyers stability has been confirmed to be sufficient.To highlight the impact of the parameters on the dynamics of HFMD,we performed several simulations through numerical scheme to conceptualize the transmission route of the infection.To be more specific,numerical simulations are used to visualize the effect of input parameters on the systems dynamics.We have shown the key input parameters of the system for the control of infection in the society.展开更多
Objective:To analyze the prevalence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in China during 2008-2018 and to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods:Literature eligible for selection was retrieved...Objective:To analyze the prevalence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in China during 2008-2018 and to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods:Literature eligible for selection was retrieved from the China's national knowledge infrastructure project(CNKI),and data from 2008-2018 Chinese HFMD reports were systematically analyzed.Excel and SPSS 20.00 were used for statistical analysis,and GraphPad Prism 6 was used for mapping.Results:The analysis showed that the average incidence rate of HFMD in China from 2008 to 2018 was 123.37±93.14 cases per 100,000 people,with a male-to-female ratio of(1.50±0.15):1,and the vast majority of cases were concentrated in the under-5 age group,mainly in scattered children.The time of onset of HFMD showed obvious seasonal characteristics,in which single-peak provinces were higher than double-peak provinces,with double-peak trends in April-July and October-November,respectively,and single-peak trends mainly in May-July.Based on the spatial distribution study,the incidence pattern showed obvious regional differences(P<0.05),with high incidence concentrated in the southeastern part of the country,and a gradual increase in incidence from west to east and north to south of China.EV71,CA16 and other enteric viruses were the main pathogens of HFMD,with EV71 accounting for 53.5%,CA16 is accounting for 14.3%and other enteric viruses accounting for 32.2%of the pathogens.Conclusions:The incidence of HFMD in China is high,with obvious geographical,seasonal,gender and age distribution characteristics.According to the pattern of HFMD incidence in the region,early prevention and control of key areas and groups is an effective way to cut off the spread of the disease.展开更多
Background:Enterovirus 71(EV71)is a major virus that causes hand-foot-mouth disease.In cases of infants and young children,EV71 infection has been associated with severe neurological disease and potentially fatal syst...Background:Enterovirus 71(EV71)is a major virus that causes hand-foot-mouth disease.In cases of infants and young children,EV71 infection has been associated with severe neurological disease and potentially fatal systemic complications.The sporadic outbreak worldwide is increasingly prevalent in the Asia-Pacific region,where it has become a major public health concern.Objective:No specific antiviral drugs are currently approved for the treatment of EV71 infection.The purpose of this study is to comprehensively review the research progress of anti-EV71 drugs(synthetic small molecule inhibitors and nature drugs)in the past twenty years,and further to promote the research and development of antiviral drugs against enterovirus infection.Methods:This study reviewed the drugs on anti EV71 in the past decades.The literature search in PubMed database was conducted for original studies and review articles on drugs against enterovirus 71.Related articles published in English were selected for study and discussion.Results:As reviewed in this paper,bioactive molecules include receptor analogues,protease inhibitors,natural drugs derived from traditional chinese medicine or natural medicine.These bioactive molecules have shown significant effectiveness in inhibiting the entry and replication of EV71 in vitro and in vivo experiments.Conclusion:This review demonstrated that the entry receptor of EV71 into host cells has been studied,and receptor drugs against enterovirus have been made some progress,but most receptor analogues have not been reported.Further research is needed in this area in the future.On the other hand,the protease inhibitors have always been a major aspect of anti-enterovirus research and can be developed as antiviral agents for clinical application.In terms of natural drugs,many monomers derived from traditional chinese medicine or natural medicine have good antiviral activity and little toxic and side effects on host cells,but in view of their multi-target properties,the mechanism of drug action needs to be further studied.展开更多
基金financially supported by the Health and Family Planning Commission of Hubei Province(No.WJ2017F047)the Health and Family Planning Commission of Wuhan(No.WG17D05)
文摘Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD) have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month(from January 2009 to December 2015) retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination(R^2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, with the largest coefficient of determination(R^2=0.743) and lowest normalized BIC(BIC=3.645) value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations(P_(Box-Ljung(Q))=0.299). The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.
文摘In this paper,we formulate the transmission phenomena of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease(HFMD)through non-integer derivative.We interrogate the biological meaningful results of the recommended system of HFMD.The basic reproduction number is determined through next generation method and the impact of different parameters on the reproduction number is examined with the help of partial rank correlation coeficient(PRCC)technique.In addition,we concentrated on qualitative analysis and dynamical behavior of HFMD dynamics.Banach's and Schaefer's fixed-point theorems are used to analyze the uniqueness and existence of the solution of the proposed HFMD model.The HFMD system's Ulam-Hyers stability has been confirmed to be sufficient.To highlight the impact of the parameters on the dynamics of HFMD,we performed several simulations through numerical scheme to conceptualize the transmission route of the infection.To be more specific,numerical simulations are used to visualize the effect of input parameters on the systems dynamics.We have shown the key input parameters of the system for the control of infection in the society.
基金The Youth Project of the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(No.819QN386)。
文摘Objective:To analyze the prevalence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in China during 2008-2018 and to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods:Literature eligible for selection was retrieved from the China's national knowledge infrastructure project(CNKI),and data from 2008-2018 Chinese HFMD reports were systematically analyzed.Excel and SPSS 20.00 were used for statistical analysis,and GraphPad Prism 6 was used for mapping.Results:The analysis showed that the average incidence rate of HFMD in China from 2008 to 2018 was 123.37±93.14 cases per 100,000 people,with a male-to-female ratio of(1.50±0.15):1,and the vast majority of cases were concentrated in the under-5 age group,mainly in scattered children.The time of onset of HFMD showed obvious seasonal characteristics,in which single-peak provinces were higher than double-peak provinces,with double-peak trends in April-July and October-November,respectively,and single-peak trends mainly in May-July.Based on the spatial distribution study,the incidence pattern showed obvious regional differences(P<0.05),with high incidence concentrated in the southeastern part of the country,and a gradual increase in incidence from west to east and north to south of China.EV71,CA16 and other enteric viruses were the main pathogens of HFMD,with EV71 accounting for 53.5%,CA16 is accounting for 14.3%and other enteric viruses accounting for 32.2%of the pathogens.Conclusions:The incidence of HFMD in China is high,with obvious geographical,seasonal,gender and age distribution characteristics.According to the pattern of HFMD incidence in the region,early prevention and control of key areas and groups is an effective way to cut off the spread of the disease.
基金supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82101630).
文摘Background:Enterovirus 71(EV71)is a major virus that causes hand-foot-mouth disease.In cases of infants and young children,EV71 infection has been associated with severe neurological disease and potentially fatal systemic complications.The sporadic outbreak worldwide is increasingly prevalent in the Asia-Pacific region,where it has become a major public health concern.Objective:No specific antiviral drugs are currently approved for the treatment of EV71 infection.The purpose of this study is to comprehensively review the research progress of anti-EV71 drugs(synthetic small molecule inhibitors and nature drugs)in the past twenty years,and further to promote the research and development of antiviral drugs against enterovirus infection.Methods:This study reviewed the drugs on anti EV71 in the past decades.The literature search in PubMed database was conducted for original studies and review articles on drugs against enterovirus 71.Related articles published in English were selected for study and discussion.Results:As reviewed in this paper,bioactive molecules include receptor analogues,protease inhibitors,natural drugs derived from traditional chinese medicine or natural medicine.These bioactive molecules have shown significant effectiveness in inhibiting the entry and replication of EV71 in vitro and in vivo experiments.Conclusion:This review demonstrated that the entry receptor of EV71 into host cells has been studied,and receptor drugs against enterovirus have been made some progress,but most receptor analogues have not been reported.Further research is needed in this area in the future.On the other hand,the protease inhibitors have always been a major aspect of anti-enterovirus research and can be developed as antiviral agents for clinical application.In terms of natural drugs,many monomers derived from traditional chinese medicine or natural medicine have good antiviral activity and little toxic and side effects on host cells,but in view of their multi-target properties,the mechanism of drug action needs to be further studied.
