The authors study the structure, functions and data organization for the hazard analysis system of urban post-earthquake fire on the platform of GIS. A general hazard analysis model of the post-earthquake fire is pres...The authors study the structure, functions and data organization for the hazard analysis system of urban post-earthquake fire on the platform of GIS. A general hazard analysis model of the post-earthquake fire is presented. Taking Shanghai central district as background, a system for hazard analysis of the post-earthquake fire and auxiliary decision-against fire is developed.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can...The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city's water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis(DSHA).A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.展开更多
A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimen...A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimensional Frank's copula. In addition, we adopt two attenuation models proposed by YU and Boore et al, respectively, and construct a two-dimensional copula joint probabilistic function as an example to illustrate the uncertainty treatment at low probability. The results show that copula joint function gives us a better prediction of peak ground motion than that resultant from the simple linear weight technique which is commonly used in the traditional logic-tree treatment of model uncertainties. In light of widespread application in the risk analysis from financial investment to insurance assessment, we believe that the copula-based technique will have a potential application in the seismic hazard analysis.展开更多
The Maritime Silk Road is not only a passageway for business and trade, but also the road of friendship between eastern and western civilizations. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused major damage to several coasta...The Maritime Silk Road is not only a passageway for business and trade, but also the road of friendship between eastern and western civilizations. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused major damage to several coastal countries. Tsunami occurrence regularity and hazard analysis are needed to ensure economic and cultural exchange on the Maritime Silk Road. To explore and identify tsunami hazard on the Maritime Silk Road, the spatial and temporal characteristics of historical tsunami events were given out. Some useful information hidden in historical tsunamis was searched from source parameters, such as seismic magnitude, focal depth and water depth. The tsunami possibility in the case of earthquake occurrence was also studied, exploring the probability of tsunami caused by different magnitudes. The analysis result shows that tsunamis on the Maritime Silk Road mainly occurred in 8 major tectonic faults, each of which has different tsunami occurrence regularity. On the basis of statistical analysis, a numerical model was used to simulate the potential tsunamis and show the tsunami hazard levels along the coast of Maritime Silk Road. The research results of this paper can help the tsunami early warning and ensure the safety of economic and cultural exchanges on the Maritime Silk Road.展开更多
-Conventional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is difficult to apply in regions lacking sufficient information of the geological setting,active faults,and so forth.Also,for a site-specific PSHA,site effects...-Conventional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is difficult to apply in regions lacking sufficient information of the geological setting,active faults,and so forth.Also,for a site-specific PSHA,site effects arising from both crustal rock and overlying soil sediments are generally not assessed rigorously.This is of particular importance for those metropolitan cities having a significant proportion of reclaimed land,because the site-to-site variability of such site effects can be very large.The objective of this paper is to demonstrate an alternative procedure for constructing site-specific uniform hazard response spectra(UHS),extended from a recently-developed Direct Amplitude-Based(DAB) approach.The method has a number of important advantages compared with conventional PSHA.Using the proposed approach,response spectral values have been computed for the whole period range of engineering interest,to form a set of site-specific UHS.展开更多
Fethiye is an important region located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin.This region which is the most active part of the south-western Anatolia extensional tectonic regime,has been effected by earthquake...Fethiye is an important region located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin.This region which is the most active part of the south-western Anatolia extensional tectonic regime,has been effected by earthquakes,submarine landslides and tsunamis throughout the history due to the existence of the complex active plate boundary zone.The active area has been exposed to ground motion that had the potential to damage vulnerable structures.Therefore,a detailed assessment of seismic hazard is necessary for the prevention of potential damage.In this context,probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed by R-CRISIS-18.3 using the refined parameters computed from Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe(SHARE)project.Spatial distribution of spectral acceleration at T=0.2 s and T=1.0 s for the earthquake levels that corresponds to the average return period of 72,475 and 2475 years is calculated.Hazard curves for the central region of Fethiye district are generated.The results are discussed and compared with the values obtained from the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project(UDAP-C-13-06).These local results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps as future work.展开更多
The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach.A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region(latitude 26°N and 31.7°N and lon...The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach.A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region(latitude 26°N and 31.7°N and longitude 79°E and 90°E)from 1255 to 2011.The distribution of catalogued earthquakes,together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source zones in Nepal and the surrounding region.By using the seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion prediction relationship,peak ground accelerations(PGAs)have been calculated at bedrock level with 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years.The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07–0.16 g,0.21–0.62 g,and 0.38–1.1 g for 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years,respectively.The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution,i.e.,high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections,and low hazard in southern Nepal.The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.展开更多
In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addition ...In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addition to crustal earthquakes provided by catalogues, recent paleoseismological and neotectonic investigations have permitted to consider events which occurred during the last 400 years.Four seismogenic sources that could cause damages to the studied site corresponding to Precordillera,Western Sierras Pampeanas, Basement of the Cuyana Basin and Cordillera Principal were identified.Based on the evaluation of the contribution of these sources,maximum moment magnitudes above 7.5(Mw) are expected.High values of SA(spectral acceleration)(0.2 and 1 s periods) and PGA(peak ground acceleration) were found in the city of San Juan, which suggests that it is located in a zone of high seismic hazard.Finally, the obtained SA spectra were compared with the seismic-resistant construction standards of Argentina INPRES-CIRSOC 103 [1]. Results suggest that for the city of San Juan and for a return period of475 years, it covers the seismic requirements of the structures.展开更多
Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.However,there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment af...Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.However,there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes.Therefore,we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation,and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method.This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves.It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications.We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area,and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finitefault simulation.Finally,we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively.The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels.These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam,thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.展开更多
In the present study,a hazard model of severe convective weather was constructed on the basis of meteorological observational data obtained in Guangdong Province between 2003 and 2015.In the analysis,quality control w...In the present study,a hazard model of severe convective weather was constructed on the basis of meteorological observational data obtained in Guangdong Province between 2003 and 2015.In the analysis,quality control was first conducted on the severe convective weather data,and the kriging method was then used to interpolate each hazard-formative factor.The weights of which were determined by applying the coefficient of variation method.The results were used to establish the hazard-formative factor model of severe convective weather.The cities showing the greatest hazards for severe convective weather in Guangdong Province include Yangjiang,Dongguan,Foshan,Huizhou,Jiangmen,and Qingyuan.展开更多
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogen...A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.展开更多
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may hav...Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.展开更多
Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-fe...Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.展开更多
This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carr...This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.展开更多
Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of ...Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in China.It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin 2021-2030.The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more details.The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes.This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable.There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and GMMs.The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments.The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.展开更多
BACKGROUND The growing disparity between the rising demand for liver transplantation(LT)and the limited availability of donor organs has prompted a greater reliance on older liver grafts.Traditionally,utilizing livers...BACKGROUND The growing disparity between the rising demand for liver transplantation(LT)and the limited availability of donor organs has prompted a greater reliance on older liver grafts.Traditionally,utilizing livers from elderly donors has been associated with outcomes inferior to those achieved with grafts from younger donors.By accounting for additional risk factors,we hypothesize that the utili-zation of older liver grafts has a relatively minor impact on both patient survival and graft viability.AIM To evaluate the impact of donor age on LT outcomes using multivariate analysis and comparing young and elderly donor groups.METHODS In the period from April 2013 to December 2018,656 adult liver transplants were performed at the University Hospital Merkur.Several multivariate Cox propor-tional hazards models were developed to independently assess the significance of donor age.Donor age was treated as a continuous variable.The approach involved univariate and multivariate analysis,including variable selection and assessment of interactions and transformations.Additionally,to exemplify the similarity of using young and old donor liver grafts,the group of 87 recipients of elderly donor liver grafts(≥75 years)was compared to a group of 124 recipients of young liver grafts(≤45 years)from the dataset.Survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was used to test the differences between groups.RESULTS Using multivariate Cox analysis,we found no statistical significance in the role of donor age within the constructed models.Even when retained during the entire model development,the donor age's impact on survival remained insignificant and transformations and interactions yielded no substantial effects on survival.Consistent insigni-ficance and low coefficient values suggest that donor age does not impact patient survival in our dataset.Notably,there was no statistical evidence that the five developed models did not adhere to the proportional hazards assumption.When comparing donor age groups,transplantation using elderly grafts showed similar early graft function,similar graft(P=0.92),and patient survival rates(P=0.86),and no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications.CONCLUSION Our center's experience indicates that donor age does not play a significant role in patient survival,with elderly livers performing comparably to younger grafts when accounting for other risk factors.展开更多
This paper studies the deterioration of bridge substructures utilizing the Long-Term Bridge Performance(LTBP)Program InfoBridge^(TM)and develops a survival model using Cox proportional hazards regression.The survival ...This paper studies the deterioration of bridge substructures utilizing the Long-Term Bridge Performance(LTBP)Program InfoBridge^(TM)and develops a survival model using Cox proportional hazards regression.The survival analysis is based on the National Bridge Inventory(NBI)dataset.The study calculates the survival rate of reinforced and prestressed concrete piles on bridges under marine conditions over a 29-year span(from 1992 to 2020).The state of Maryland is the primary focus of this study,with data from three neighboring regions,the District of Columbia,Virginia,and Delaware to expand the sample size.The data obtained from the National Bridge Inventory are condensed and filtered to acquire the most relevant information for model development.The Cox proportional hazards regression is applied to the condensed NBI data with six parameters:Age,ADT,ADTT,number of spans,span length,and structural length.Two survival models are generated for the bridge substructures:Reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in Maryland and reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in wet service conditions in the District of Columbia,Maryland,Delaware,and Virginia.Results from the Cox proportional hazards regression are used to construct Markov chains to demonstrate the sequence of the deterioration of bridge substructures.The Markov chains can be used as a tool to assist in the prediction and decision-making for repair,rehabilitation,and replacement of bridge piles.Based on the numerical model,the Pile Assessment Matrix Program(PAM)is developed to facilitate the assessment and maintenance of current bridge structures.The program integrates the NBI database with the inspection and research reports from various states’department of transportation,to serve as a tool for condition state simulation based on maintenance or rehabilitation strategies.展开更多
Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation takes on critical significance in early warning and disaster prevention and reduction.In order to solve the problems of poor effectiveness of landslide data and complex calcu...Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation takes on critical significance in early warning and disaster prevention and reduction.In order to solve the problems of poor effectiveness of landslide data and complex calculation of weights for multiple evaluation factors in the existing landslide susceptibility evaluation models,in this study,a method of landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation is proposed by combining SBAS-InSAR(Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)and SSA-BP(Sparrow Search Algorithm-Back Propagation)neural network algorithm.The SBAS-InSAR technology is adopted to identify potential landslide hazards in the study area,update the cataloging data of landslide hazards,and 11 evaluation factors are chosen for constructing the SSA-BP model for training and validation.Baihetan Reservoir area is selected as a case study for validation.As indicated by the results,the application of SBAS-InSAR technology,combined with both ascending and descending orbit data,effectively addresses the incomplete identification of landslide hazards caused by geometric distortion of single orbit SAR data(e.g.,shadow,overlay,and perspective contraction)in deep canyon areas,thereby enabling the acquisition of up-to-date landslide hazard data.Moreover,in comparison to the conventional BP(Back Propagation)algorithm,the accuracy of the model constructed by the SSA-BP algorithm exhibits a significant increase,with mean squared error and mean absolute error reduced by 0.0142 and 0.0607,respectively.Additionally,during the process of susceptibility evaluation,the SSA-BP model effectively circumvents the issue of considerable manual interventions in calculating the weight of evaluation factors.The area under the curve of this model reaches 0.909,surpassing BP(0.835),random forest(0.792),and the information value method(0.699).The risk of landslide occurrence in the Baihetan Reservoir area is positively correlated with slope,surface temperature,and deformation rate,while it is negatively correlated with fault distance and normalized difference vegetation index.Geological lithology exerts minimal influence on the occurrence of landslides,with the risk being low in forest land and high in grassland.The method proposed in this study provides a useful reference for disaster prevention and mitigation departments to perform landslide hazard susceptibility evaluations in deep canyon areas under complex geological conditions.展开更多
Gears are pivotal in mechanical drives,and gear contact analysis is a typically difficult problem to solve.Emerging isogeometric analysis(IGA)methods have developed new ideas to solve this problem.In this paper,a thre...Gears are pivotal in mechanical drives,and gear contact analysis is a typically difficult problem to solve.Emerging isogeometric analysis(IGA)methods have developed new ideas to solve this problem.In this paper,a threedimensional body parametric gear model of IGA is established,and a theoretical formula is derived to realize single-tooth contact analysis.Results were benchmarked against those obtained from commercial software utilizing the finite element analysis(FEA)method to validate the accuracy of our approach.Our findings indicate that the IGA-based contact algorithmsuccessfullymet theHertz contact test.When juxtaposed with the FEA approach,the IGAmethod demonstrated fewer node degrees of freedomand reduced computational units,all whilemaintaining comparable accuracy.Notably,the IGA method appeared to exhibit consistency in analysis accuracy irrespective of computational unit density,and also significantlymitigated non-physical oscillations in contact stress across the tooth width.This underscores the prowess of IGA in contact analysis.In conclusion,IGA emerges as a potent tool for addressing contact analysis challenges and holds significant promise for 3D gear modeling,simulation,and optimization of various mechanical components.展开更多
The coupling effect of heat absorption and release exists in the thermal decomposition of a few chemical materials.However,the impact of the above coupling on thermal hazard assessment is not considered in the literat...The coupling effect of heat absorption and release exists in the thermal decomposition of a few chemical materials.However,the impact of the above coupling on thermal hazard assessment is not considered in the literature studies.In this work,nitroguanidine(NQ)and 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine(RDX)are selected as representative materials to explore the influence of the coupling effect on the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials.The linear heating experiments of NQ and RDX are carried out by a microcalorimeter and synchronous thermal analyser.The thermal decomposition curves are decoupled by advanced thermokinetics software.The thermal decomposition and kinetic parameters before and after decoupling are calculated.The results of TG experiment show that both NQ and RDX began to lose mass during the endothermic stage.The endothermic melting and exothermic decomposition of NQ and RDX are coupled within this stage.The coupling effect has different degrees of influence on its initial decomposition temperature and safety parameters.Compared with the parameters in the coupling state,the initial decomposition temperature and adiabatic induction period after decoupling decrease.The self-accelerating decomposition temperature increases,and internal thermal runaway time decreases.In the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials with coupling effects,the calculated parameters after decoupling should be taken as an important safety index。展开更多
基金National Outstanding Youth Science Foundation (59825105).
文摘The authors study the structure, functions and data organization for the hazard analysis system of urban post-earthquake fire on the platform of GIS. A general hazard analysis model of the post-earthquake fire is presented. Taking Shanghai central district as background, a system for hazard analysis of the post-earthquake fire and auxiliary decision-against fire is developed.
基金supported by the National Scientific and Technological support project MST (2006BAC13B02-0106)spe-cial research funds from the Public Institute of China,Institute of Geophysics (IGP),China Earthquake Ad-ministration (CEA) (DQJB06A01)The contribution No. is 10FE3004,IGP,CEA
文摘The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city's water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis(DSHA).A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.
基金Project of Institute of Crustal Dynamics, China Earthquake Administration (ZDJ2007-1)One Hundred Individual Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (99M2009M02) National Natural Science Foundation of China (40574022)
文摘A mature mathematical technique called copula joint function is introduced in this paper, which is commonly used in the financial risk analysis to estimate uncertainty. The joint function is generalized to the n-dimensional Frank's copula. In addition, we adopt two attenuation models proposed by YU and Boore et al, respectively, and construct a two-dimensional copula joint probabilistic function as an example to illustrate the uncertainty treatment at low probability. The results show that copula joint function gives us a better prediction of peak ground motion than that resultant from the simple linear weight technique which is commonly used in the traditional logic-tree treatment of model uncertainties. In light of widespread application in the risk analysis from financial investment to insurance assessment, we believe that the copula-based technique will have a potential application in the seismic hazard analysis.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2016YFC1402000,2016YFC1401500
文摘The Maritime Silk Road is not only a passageway for business and trade, but also the road of friendship between eastern and western civilizations. The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 caused major damage to several coastal countries. Tsunami occurrence regularity and hazard analysis are needed to ensure economic and cultural exchange on the Maritime Silk Road. To explore and identify tsunami hazard on the Maritime Silk Road, the spatial and temporal characteristics of historical tsunami events were given out. Some useful information hidden in historical tsunamis was searched from source parameters, such as seismic magnitude, focal depth and water depth. The tsunami possibility in the case of earthquake occurrence was also studied, exploring the probability of tsunami caused by different magnitudes. The analysis result shows that tsunamis on the Maritime Silk Road mainly occurred in 8 major tectonic faults, each of which has different tsunami occurrence regularity. On the basis of statistical analysis, a numerical model was used to simulate the potential tsunamis and show the tsunami hazard levels along the coast of Maritime Silk Road. The research results of this paper can help the tsunami early warning and ensure the safety of economic and cultural exchanges on the Maritime Silk Road.
文摘-Conventional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) is difficult to apply in regions lacking sufficient information of the geological setting,active faults,and so forth.Also,for a site-specific PSHA,site effects arising from both crustal rock and overlying soil sediments are generally not assessed rigorously.This is of particular importance for those metropolitan cities having a significant proportion of reclaimed land,because the site-to-site variability of such site effects can be very large.The objective of this paper is to demonstrate an alternative procedure for constructing site-specific uniform hazard response spectra(UHS),extended from a recently-developed Direct Amplitude-Based(DAB) approach.The method has a number of important advantages compared with conventional PSHA.Using the proposed approach,response spectral values have been computed for the whole period range of engineering interest,to form a set of site-specific UHS.
文摘Fethiye is an important region located in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Basin.This region which is the most active part of the south-western Anatolia extensional tectonic regime,has been effected by earthquakes,submarine landslides and tsunamis throughout the history due to the existence of the complex active plate boundary zone.The active area has been exposed to ground motion that had the potential to damage vulnerable structures.Therefore,a detailed assessment of seismic hazard is necessary for the prevention of potential damage.In this context,probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed by R-CRISIS-18.3 using the refined parameters computed from Seismic Hazard Harmonization for Europe(SHARE)project.Spatial distribution of spectral acceleration at T=0.2 s and T=1.0 s for the earthquake levels that corresponds to the average return period of 72,475 and 2475 years is calculated.Hazard curves for the central region of Fethiye district are generated.The results are discussed and compared with the values obtained from the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project(UDAP-C-13-06).These local results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps as future work.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51121005 and Grant No.51378092
文摘The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach.A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region(latitude 26°N and 31.7°N and longitude 79°E and 90°E)from 1255 to 2011.The distribution of catalogued earthquakes,together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source zones in Nepal and the surrounding region.By using the seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion prediction relationship,peak ground accelerations(PGAs)have been calculated at bedrock level with 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years.The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07–0.16 g,0.21–0.62 g,and 0.38–1.1 g for 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years,respectively.The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution,i.e.,high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections,and low hazard in southern Nepal.The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.
文摘In this study, we present a PSHA(Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis) for the city of San Juan, which is located in the central-western region of Argentina(30°S-35.5°S; 66.5°W-71°W). In addition to crustal earthquakes provided by catalogues, recent paleoseismological and neotectonic investigations have permitted to consider events which occurred during the last 400 years.Four seismogenic sources that could cause damages to the studied site corresponding to Precordillera,Western Sierras Pampeanas, Basement of the Cuyana Basin and Cordillera Principal were identified.Based on the evaluation of the contribution of these sources,maximum moment magnitudes above 7.5(Mw) are expected.High values of SA(spectral acceleration)(0.2 and 1 s periods) and PGA(peak ground acceleration) were found in the city of San Juan, which suggests that it is located in a zone of high seismic hazard.Finally, the obtained SA spectra were compared with the seismic-resistant construction standards of Argentina INPRES-CIRSOC 103 [1]. Results suggest that for the city of San Juan and for a return period of475 years, it covers the seismic requirements of the structures.
基金supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.8212018)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFC0404901)the China Three Gorges Corporation Research Project(XLD/2115)。
文摘Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.However,there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes.Therefore,we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation,and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method.This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves.It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications.We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area,and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finitefault simulation.Finally,we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively.The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels.These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam,thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.
基金Major Basic Research Cultivation Project of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2015A030308014)Special Fund for Promoting High-Special Fund for Promoting High-Quality Economic Development in Guangdong Province(Marine Economic Development Project)(GDOE[2019]A11)+1 种基金Climate Change Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration(CCSF202012)Science and Technology Innovation Team Fund of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(201701)。
文摘In the present study,a hazard model of severe convective weather was constructed on the basis of meteorological observational data obtained in Guangdong Province between 2003 and 2015.In the analysis,quality control was first conducted on the severe convective weather data,and the kriging method was then used to interpolate each hazard-formative factor.The weights of which were determined by applying the coefficient of variation method.The results were used to establish the hazard-formative factor model of severe convective weather.The cities showing the greatest hazards for severe convective weather in Guangdong Province include Yangjiang,Dongguan,Foshan,Huizhou,Jiangmen,and Qingyuan.
文摘A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.
基金Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104065)Social Public Welfare Special Foundation of the Na-tional Research Institutes (2005DIB3J119).
文摘Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.
文摘Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.
基金the Research Project of National Engineering Research Center for Petroleum Refining Technology and Catalyst(RIPP,SINOPEC)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC0808600)。
文摘This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.
基金sponsored by the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant Nos.DQJB22Z03 and DQJB22B25)。
文摘Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China(FGSGMPZMC),a new seismic fault model,the new zonation of seismic risk areas(SRAs),and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021-2030,this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland,and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models(GMMs)suitable for seismic sources in China.It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity(MMI)Ⅵ,Ⅶ,Ⅷ,Ⅸ,and≥Ⅹin 2021-2030.The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC,but shows more details.The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes.This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable.There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al.(2020)and Feng et al.(2020),but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models,seismicity parameters,and GMMs.The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments.The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.
基金Supported by the European Regional Development Fund(DATACROSS),No.KK.01.1.1.01.0009.
文摘BACKGROUND The growing disparity between the rising demand for liver transplantation(LT)and the limited availability of donor organs has prompted a greater reliance on older liver grafts.Traditionally,utilizing livers from elderly donors has been associated with outcomes inferior to those achieved with grafts from younger donors.By accounting for additional risk factors,we hypothesize that the utili-zation of older liver grafts has a relatively minor impact on both patient survival and graft viability.AIM To evaluate the impact of donor age on LT outcomes using multivariate analysis and comparing young and elderly donor groups.METHODS In the period from April 2013 to December 2018,656 adult liver transplants were performed at the University Hospital Merkur.Several multivariate Cox propor-tional hazards models were developed to independently assess the significance of donor age.Donor age was treated as a continuous variable.The approach involved univariate and multivariate analysis,including variable selection and assessment of interactions and transformations.Additionally,to exemplify the similarity of using young and old donor liver grafts,the group of 87 recipients of elderly donor liver grafts(≥75 years)was compared to a group of 124 recipients of young liver grafts(≤45 years)from the dataset.Survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was used to test the differences between groups.RESULTS Using multivariate Cox analysis,we found no statistical significance in the role of donor age within the constructed models.Even when retained during the entire model development,the donor age's impact on survival remained insignificant and transformations and interactions yielded no substantial effects on survival.Consistent insigni-ficance and low coefficient values suggest that donor age does not impact patient survival in our dataset.Notably,there was no statistical evidence that the five developed models did not adhere to the proportional hazards assumption.When comparing donor age groups,transplantation using elderly grafts showed similar early graft function,similar graft(P=0.92),and patient survival rates(P=0.86),and no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications.CONCLUSION Our center's experience indicates that donor age does not play a significant role in patient survival,with elderly livers performing comparably to younger grafts when accounting for other risk factors.
基金This research receives funding from the Maryland Department of Transportation State Highway Administration.
文摘This paper studies the deterioration of bridge substructures utilizing the Long-Term Bridge Performance(LTBP)Program InfoBridge^(TM)and develops a survival model using Cox proportional hazards regression.The survival analysis is based on the National Bridge Inventory(NBI)dataset.The study calculates the survival rate of reinforced and prestressed concrete piles on bridges under marine conditions over a 29-year span(from 1992 to 2020).The state of Maryland is the primary focus of this study,with data from three neighboring regions,the District of Columbia,Virginia,and Delaware to expand the sample size.The data obtained from the National Bridge Inventory are condensed and filtered to acquire the most relevant information for model development.The Cox proportional hazards regression is applied to the condensed NBI data with six parameters:Age,ADT,ADTT,number of spans,span length,and structural length.Two survival models are generated for the bridge substructures:Reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in Maryland and reinforced and prestressed concrete piles in wet service conditions in the District of Columbia,Maryland,Delaware,and Virginia.Results from the Cox proportional hazards regression are used to construct Markov chains to demonstrate the sequence of the deterioration of bridge substructures.The Markov chains can be used as a tool to assist in the prediction and decision-making for repair,rehabilitation,and replacement of bridge piles.Based on the numerical model,the Pile Assessment Matrix Program(PAM)is developed to facilitate the assessment and maintenance of current bridge structures.The program integrates the NBI database with the inspection and research reports from various states’department of transportation,to serve as a tool for condition state simulation based on maintenance or rehabilitation strategies.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41861134008)Muhammad Asif Khan academician workstation of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202105AF150076)+6 种基金General program of Yunnan Province Science and Technology Department(Grant No.202105AF150076)Key Project of Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202101AS070019)Key R&D Program of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202003AC100002)General Program of basic research plan of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202001AT070059)Major scientific and technological projects of Yunnan Province:Research on Key Technologies of ecological environment monitoring and intelligent management of natural resources in Yunnan(No:202202AD080010)“Study on High-Level Hidden Landslide Identification Based on Multi-Source Data”of Key Laboratory of Early Rapid Identification,Prevention and Control of Geological Diseases in Traffic Corridor of High Intensity Earthquake Mountainous Area of Yunnan Province(KLGDTC-2021-02)Guizhou Scientific and Technology Fund(QKHJ-ZK[2023]YB 193).
文摘Landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation takes on critical significance in early warning and disaster prevention and reduction.In order to solve the problems of poor effectiveness of landslide data and complex calculation of weights for multiple evaluation factors in the existing landslide susceptibility evaluation models,in this study,a method of landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation is proposed by combining SBAS-InSAR(Small Baseline Subsets-Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)and SSA-BP(Sparrow Search Algorithm-Back Propagation)neural network algorithm.The SBAS-InSAR technology is adopted to identify potential landslide hazards in the study area,update the cataloging data of landslide hazards,and 11 evaluation factors are chosen for constructing the SSA-BP model for training and validation.Baihetan Reservoir area is selected as a case study for validation.As indicated by the results,the application of SBAS-InSAR technology,combined with both ascending and descending orbit data,effectively addresses the incomplete identification of landslide hazards caused by geometric distortion of single orbit SAR data(e.g.,shadow,overlay,and perspective contraction)in deep canyon areas,thereby enabling the acquisition of up-to-date landslide hazard data.Moreover,in comparison to the conventional BP(Back Propagation)algorithm,the accuracy of the model constructed by the SSA-BP algorithm exhibits a significant increase,with mean squared error and mean absolute error reduced by 0.0142 and 0.0607,respectively.Additionally,during the process of susceptibility evaluation,the SSA-BP model effectively circumvents the issue of considerable manual interventions in calculating the weight of evaluation factors.The area under the curve of this model reaches 0.909,surpassing BP(0.835),random forest(0.792),and the information value method(0.699).The risk of landslide occurrence in the Baihetan Reservoir area is positively correlated with slope,surface temperature,and deformation rate,while it is negatively correlated with fault distance and normalized difference vegetation index.Geological lithology exerts minimal influence on the occurrence of landslides,with the risk being low in forest land and high in grassland.The method proposed in this study provides a useful reference for disaster prevention and mitigation departments to perform landslide hazard susceptibility evaluations in deep canyon areas under complex geological conditions.
基金support provided by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.52075340,51875360)Project of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (No.19060502300).
文摘Gears are pivotal in mechanical drives,and gear contact analysis is a typically difficult problem to solve.Emerging isogeometric analysis(IGA)methods have developed new ideas to solve this problem.In this paper,a threedimensional body parametric gear model of IGA is established,and a theoretical formula is derived to realize single-tooth contact analysis.Results were benchmarked against those obtained from commercial software utilizing the finite element analysis(FEA)method to validate the accuracy of our approach.Our findings indicate that the IGA-based contact algorithmsuccessfullymet theHertz contact test.When juxtaposed with the FEA approach,the IGAmethod demonstrated fewer node degrees of freedomand reduced computational units,all whilemaintaining comparable accuracy.Notably,the IGA method appeared to exhibit consistency in analysis accuracy irrespective of computational unit density,and also significantlymitigated non-physical oscillations in contact stress across the tooth width.This underscores the prowess of IGA in contact analysis.In conclusion,IGA emerges as a potent tool for addressing contact analysis challenges and holds significant promise for 3D gear modeling,simulation,and optimization of various mechanical components.
基金the project of the Open Research Fund Program of Science and Technology on Aerospace Chemical Power Laboratory(Grant No.STACPL320221B04)Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology(Beijing Institute of Technology)The project number is ZDKT21-01.
文摘The coupling effect of heat absorption and release exists in the thermal decomposition of a few chemical materials.However,the impact of the above coupling on thermal hazard assessment is not considered in the literature studies.In this work,nitroguanidine(NQ)and 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine(RDX)are selected as representative materials to explore the influence of the coupling effect on the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials.The linear heating experiments of NQ and RDX are carried out by a microcalorimeter and synchronous thermal analyser.The thermal decomposition curves are decoupled by advanced thermokinetics software.The thermal decomposition and kinetic parameters before and after decoupling are calculated.The results of TG experiment show that both NQ and RDX began to lose mass during the endothermic stage.The endothermic melting and exothermic decomposition of NQ and RDX are coupled within this stage.The coupling effect has different degrees of influence on its initial decomposition temperature and safety parameters.Compared with the parameters in the coupling state,the initial decomposition temperature and adiabatic induction period after decoupling decrease.The self-accelerating decomposition temperature increases,and internal thermal runaway time decreases.In the thermal hazard assessment of chemical materials with coupling effects,the calculated parameters after decoupling should be taken as an important safety index。
