A computational framework for parachute inflation is developed based on the immersed boundary/finite element approach within the open-source IBAMR library.The fluid motion is solved by Peskin's diffuse-interface i...A computational framework for parachute inflation is developed based on the immersed boundary/finite element approach within the open-source IBAMR library.The fluid motion is solved by Peskin's diffuse-interface immersed boundary(IB)method,which is attractive for simulating moving-boundary flows with large deformations.The adaptive mesh refinement technique is employed to reduce the computational cost while retain the desired resolution.The dynamic response of the parachute is solved with the finite element approach.The canopy and cables of the parachute system are modeled with the hyperelastic material.A tether force is introduced to impose rigidity constraints for the parachute system.The accuracy and reliability of the present framework is validated by simulating inflation of a constrained square plate.Application of the present framework on several canonical cases further demonstrates its versatility for simulation of parachute inflation.展开更多
Inflationary spectral index from the Langevin equation is calculated under the frame of warm inflationary scenario with inflaton interacting with U(1) gauge fields through the Chern–Simons coupling ∝ФF_(μv)F^(μv)...Inflationary spectral index from the Langevin equation is calculated under the frame of warm inflationary scenario with inflaton interacting with U(1) gauge fields through the Chern–Simons coupling ∝ФF_(μv)F^(μv). Under the strong dissipative condition, the spectral index is calculated in terms of the ratio of Hubble parameter to temperature H/T. Then relation between H/T and other cosmic parameters is analytically expressed, based on which a spectral index related to the Chern–Simons coupling strength is further obtained. Numerical results show that cosmic temperature T closes to a constant during inflation and decreases after inflation without a reheating process. Meanwhile, the ratio H/T tends to a constant if the gauged coupling constant is less than a threshold. This phenomenon shows that cosmic temperature may be an important physical parameter with a special value and adiabatic approximation still holds. We obtain the estimate H/T ≤ 0.3377 during inflation from Planck data and other constraint conditions.展开更多
On August 16<sup>th</sup>, 2022, Public Law 117-169, The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, was signed into law by the President of the United States, Joseph R. Biden Jr. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 ...On August 16<sup>th</sup>, 2022, Public Law 117-169, The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, was signed into law by the President of the United States, Joseph R. Biden Jr. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 provides the Native Hawaiian community an opportunity to engage in activities of climate resilience and adaptation through making funds available to support such actions. This article provides a preliminary policy analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to identify the opportunities presented by this legislation that can provide ecological and cultural benefit to the Native Hawaiian community. Findings suggest policy language included in this Act is broad which emphasizes the need for the Senior Program Director of the Office of Native Hawaiian Relations, who is tasked with fund distribution, to rely upon the knowledge of the Native Hawaiian community and ecological experts to direct funds in a manner that best benefits the Native Hawaiian community.展开更多
This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank...This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN).The aforementioned secondary data cover the period from 1981 to 2021.The Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)unit root test and Johansen co-integration test were used to testing for data stationarity and the existence or otherwise of co-integrating equations respectively.Thereafter,data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square and Parsimonious Error Correction techniques.Findings from the study show that government expenditure and revenue both have a positive relationship with the rate of inflation,though the latter is not statistically significant.Also,there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and gross domestic product.In line with the above findings,we,therefore,recommend that the Nigerian government at all levels(local,state,and federal)should be tactful in the use of fiscal policy tools to avoid triggering inflationary pressure and its negative multiplier effects on the welfare of its citizenry.展开更多
We extend the Standard Model with a scalar warm dark matter field S with an interaction with the Higgs boson ∅. This warm dark matter scenario is in agreement with cosmological observations if S and ∅ come into t...We extend the Standard Model with a scalar warm dark matter field S with an interaction with the Higgs boson ∅. This warm dark matter scenario is in agreement with cosmological observations if S and ∅ come into thermal and diffusive equilibrium before the temperature drops below the Higgs boson mass m<sub>H</sub>. We study inflation driven by the fields ∅ or S, and also study preheating and reheating, in order to constrain the parameters of this extension of the Standard Model. It is remarkable that, with the current data, these models pass a closure test with no free parameters.展开更多
We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm...We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.展开更多
A new congestion driven placement Algorithm is described based on the cell inflation. In this approach, the methods of probability estimation and star model are used to evaluate the routing of nets. Global placemen...A new congestion driven placement Algorithm is described based on the cell inflation. In this approach, the methods of probability estimation and star model are used to evaluate the routing of nets. Global placement can be done by using the algorithm of global optimization and slicing partitioning. The denotation of virtual area of cell is given to indicate not only the area of cell but also the routing demand.The virtual area of a cell is got by using the strategy of cell inflation, with which in the slicing partitioning, the routing congestion is eliminated. Further reduction in congestion is achieved by cell moving. The algorithm has been tested on a set of sample circuits from American companies, with great improvement in routablity having been obtained.展开更多
This article is concerned with a class of control systems with Markovian switching, in which an It5 formula for Markov-modulated processes is derived. Moreover, an optimal control law satisfying the generalized Hamilt...This article is concerned with a class of control systems with Markovian switching, in which an It5 formula for Markov-modulated processes is derived. Moreover, an optimal control law satisfying the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman （HJB） equation with Markovian switching is characterized. Then, through the generalized HJB equation, we study an optimal consumption and portfolio problem with the financial markets of Markovian switching and inflation. Thus, we deduce the optimal policies and show that a modified Mutual Fund Theorem consisting of three funds holds. Finally, for the CRRA utility function, we explicitly give the optimal consumption and portfolio policies. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the obtained results.展开更多
Suppression effect in multiple regression analysis may be more common in research than what is currently recognized. We have reviewed several literatures of interest which treats the concept and types of suppressor va...Suppression effect in multiple regression analysis may be more common in research than what is currently recognized. We have reviewed several literatures of interest which treats the concept and types of suppressor variables. Also, we have highlighted systematic ways to identify suppression effect in multiple regressions using statistics such as: R2, sum of squares, regression weight and comparing zero-order correlations with Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) respectively. We also establish that suppression effect is a function of multicollinearity;however, a suppressor variable should only be allowed in a regression analysis if its VIF is less than five (5).展开更多
The inflation mechanism is examined for a composite cylindrical tube composed of two incompressible rubber materials, and the inner surface of the tube is subjected to a suddenly applied radial pressure. The mathemati...The inflation mechanism is examined for a composite cylindrical tube composed of two incompressible rubber materials, and the inner surface of the tube is subjected to a suddenly applied radial pressure. The mathematical model of the problem is formulated, and the corresponding governing equation is reduced to a second-order ordinary differential equation by means of the incompressible condition of the material, the boundary conditions, and the continuity conditions of the radial displacement and the radial stress of the cylindrical tube. Moreover, the first integral of the equation is obtained. The qualitative analyses of static inflation and dynamic inflation of the tube are presented. Particularly, the effects of material parameters, structure parameters, and the radial pressure on radial inflation and nonlinearly periodic oscillation of the tube are discussed by combining numerical examples.展开更多
Taking the Hubble parameter directly as a function of the scalar field instead of as a function of time,H = H( ), we present a new exact solution in the new inflation model with induced gravity. This includes solution...Taking the Hubble parameter directly as a function of the scalar field instead of as a function of time,H = H( ), we present a new exact solution in the new inflation model with induced gravity. This includes solution which is inflation for < > end, and develops smoothly towards radiation-like evolution for ≥ end. The inflation is driven by the evolution of the field with inflation potential, V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.density, ns, is computed and ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer (COBE) satellite.the dex of the scalar effective cosmological constant Aeff tends to zero when inflation ends.展开更多
Taking the cosmological expansion rate directly as a function of field , H = H( ), we present a new exact solution to Einstein's equations that describe the evolution of cosmological chaotic inflation model. The i...Taking the cosmological expansion rate directly as a function of field , H = H( ), we present a new exact solution to Einstein's equations that describe the evolution of cosmological chaotic inflation model. The inflation is driven by the evolution of scalar field with inflation potential V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.8 ( 2- 2)2.The spectral indices of the scalar density ns and gravitational wave fluctuations ng are computed. The value of ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer satellite.展开更多
Parameter estimation is defined as the process to adjust or optimize the model parameter using observations.A long-term problem in ensemble-based parameter estimation methods is that the parameters are assumed to be c...Parameter estimation is defined as the process to adjust or optimize the model parameter using observations.A long-term problem in ensemble-based parameter estimation methods is that the parameters are assumed to be constant during model integration.This assumption will cause underestimation of parameter ensemble spread,such that the parameter ensemble tends to collapse before an optimal solution is found.In this work,a two-stage inflation method is developed for parameter estimation,which can address the collapse of parameter ensemble due to the constant evolution of parameters.In the first stage,adaptive inflation is applied to the augmented states,in which the global scalar parameter is transformed to fields with spatial dependence.In the second stage,extra multiplicative inflation is used to inflate the scalar parameter ensemble to compensate for constant parameter evolution,where the inflation factor is determined according to the spread growth ratio of model states.The observation system simulation experiment with Community Earth System Model(CESM)shows that the second stage of the inflation scheme plays a crucial role in successful parameter estimation.With proper multiplicative inflation factors,the parameter estimation can effectively reduce the parameter biases,providing more accurate analyses.展开更多
The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of...The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of the canopy shape, stability, opening load, and drag area are obtained, and they are well consistent with the experimental data gained from wind tunnel tests. The method is then used to simulate the opening process under different velocities. It is found that the first load shock affected by the velocity often occurs at the end of the initial inflation stage. For the first time, the phenomena that the inflation distance proportion coefficient increases and the dynamic load coefficient decreases, respectively, with the increase in the velocity are revealed. The above proposed method is competent to solve the large deformation problem without empirial coefficients, and can collect more space-time details of fluid-structure-motion information when it is compared with the traditional method.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an ...The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.展开更多
In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2...In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.展开更多
We were interested, along this work, in the phenomena of the quintessence and the inflation due to the F-harmonic maps, in other words, in the functions of the scalar field such as the exponential and trigo-harmonic m...We were interested, along this work, in the phenomena of the quintessence and the inflation due to the F-harmonic maps, in other words, in the functions of the scalar field such as the exponential and trigo-harmonic maps. We showed that some F-harmonic map such as the trigonometric functions instead of the scalar field in the lagrangian, allow, in the absence of term of potential, reproduce the inflation. However, there are other F-harmonic maps such as exponential maps which can’t produce the inflation;the pressure and the density of this exponential harmonic field being both of the same sign. On the other hand, these exponential harmonic fields redraw well the phenomenon of the quintessence when the variation of these fields remains weak. The problem of coincidence, however remains.展开更多
Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geograp...Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geographical indication goods have their own necessities.From the perspective of the products,they are equipped with appreciation potential due to the cultural pe culiarities.From the historical standpoint,their prices have not been high as well as other agricultural products.Realistically,the increase in their prices results from the costs of labors and raw materials.Therefore,the prices of geographical indication products rise to catch up.Not only are their prices at a reasonable level,but also they are beneficial to increase peasants'income.In con clusion,it is necessary that the strategies which are different from those of other products be adopted to regulate and control the prices of geographical indication products.展开更多
The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the pote...The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the potential during inflation must be very flat, at least, in the direction of the inflaton. To construct the inflaton potential all the known related astrophysics observations should be included. For a general tree-level hybrid inflation potential, which is notdiscussed fully so far, the parameters in it are shown how to be constrained via the astrophysics data observed and to be obtained to the expected accuracy, and to be consistent with cosmology requirements.展开更多
基金supported by the Open Project of Key Laboratory of Aerospace EDLA,CASC(No.EDL19092208)。
文摘A computational framework for parachute inflation is developed based on the immersed boundary/finite element approach within the open-source IBAMR library.The fluid motion is solved by Peskin's diffuse-interface immersed boundary(IB)method,which is attractive for simulating moving-boundary flows with large deformations.The adaptive mesh refinement technique is employed to reduce the computational cost while retain the desired resolution.The dynamic response of the parachute is solved with the finite element approach.The canopy and cables of the parachute system are modeled with the hyperelastic material.A tether force is introduced to impose rigidity constraints for the parachute system.The accuracy and reliability of the present framework is validated by simulating inflation of a constrained square plate.Application of the present framework on several canonical cases further demonstrates its versatility for simulation of parachute inflation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11864030 and 62061037)Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 2021LHBS01001 and 2020BS02011)the Scientific Research Funding Project for Introduced High Level Talents of IMNU (Grant No. 2020YJRC001)。
文摘Inflationary spectral index from the Langevin equation is calculated under the frame of warm inflationary scenario with inflaton interacting with U(1) gauge fields through the Chern–Simons coupling ∝ФF_(μv)F^(μv). Under the strong dissipative condition, the spectral index is calculated in terms of the ratio of Hubble parameter to temperature H/T. Then relation between H/T and other cosmic parameters is analytically expressed, based on which a spectral index related to the Chern–Simons coupling strength is further obtained. Numerical results show that cosmic temperature T closes to a constant during inflation and decreases after inflation without a reheating process. Meanwhile, the ratio H/T tends to a constant if the gauged coupling constant is less than a threshold. This phenomenon shows that cosmic temperature may be an important physical parameter with a special value and adiabatic approximation still holds. We obtain the estimate H/T ≤ 0.3377 during inflation from Planck data and other constraint conditions.
文摘On August 16<sup>th</sup>, 2022, Public Law 117-169, The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, was signed into law by the President of the United States, Joseph R. Biden Jr. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 provides the Native Hawaiian community an opportunity to engage in activities of climate resilience and adaptation through making funds available to support such actions. This article provides a preliminary policy analysis of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to identify the opportunities presented by this legislation that can provide ecological and cultural benefit to the Native Hawaiian community. Findings suggest policy language included in this Act is broad which emphasizes the need for the Senior Program Director of the Office of Native Hawaiian Relations, who is tasked with fund distribution, to rely upon the knowledge of the Native Hawaiian community and ecological experts to direct funds in a manner that best benefits the Native Hawaiian community.
文摘This paper empirically examined the impact of fiscal policy on inflation in Nigeria.Time series data on inflation,government revenue,government expenditure,and gross domestic product were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria(CBN).The aforementioned secondary data cover the period from 1981 to 2021.The Augmented Dickey Fuller(ADF)unit root test and Johansen co-integration test were used to testing for data stationarity and the existence or otherwise of co-integrating equations respectively.Thereafter,data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square and Parsimonious Error Correction techniques.Findings from the study show that government expenditure and revenue both have a positive relationship with the rate of inflation,though the latter is not statistically significant.Also,there is a positive but insignificant relationship between inflation and gross domestic product.In line with the above findings,we,therefore,recommend that the Nigerian government at all levels(local,state,and federal)should be tactful in the use of fiscal policy tools to avoid triggering inflationary pressure and its negative multiplier effects on the welfare of its citizenry.
文摘We extend the Standard Model with a scalar warm dark matter field S with an interaction with the Higgs boson ∅. This warm dark matter scenario is in agreement with cosmological observations if S and ∅ come into thermal and diffusive equilibrium before the temperature drops below the Higgs boson mass m<sub>H</sub>. We study inflation driven by the fields ∅ or S, and also study preheating and reheating, in order to constrain the parameters of this extension of the Standard Model. It is remarkable that, with the current data, these models pass a closure test with no free parameters.
基金The author is infinitely thankful to his friend and colleague M.Rubinstein for valuable discussions and an invariable interest to his work.The author is also thankful to C.Miller for his high estimation of the author’s efforts.Of course,all errors are author’s full responsibility.
文摘We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.
文摘A new congestion driven placement Algorithm is described based on the cell inflation. In this approach, the methods of probability estimation and star model are used to evaluate the routing of nets. Global placement can be done by using the algorithm of global optimization and slicing partitioning. The denotation of virtual area of cell is given to indicate not only the area of cell but also the routing demand.The virtual area of a cell is got by using the strategy of cell inflation, with which in the slicing partitioning, the routing congestion is eliminated. Further reduction in congestion is achieved by cell moving. The algorithm has been tested on a set of sample circuits from American companies, with great improvement in routablity having been obtained.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171003)Anhui Natural Science Foundation(10040606003)Anhui Natural Science Foundation of Universities(KJ2012B019,KJ2013B023)
文摘This article is concerned with a class of control systems with Markovian switching, in which an It5 formula for Markov-modulated processes is derived. Moreover, an optimal control law satisfying the generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman （HJB） equation with Markovian switching is characterized. Then, through the generalized HJB equation, we study an optimal consumption and portfolio problem with the financial markets of Markovian switching and inflation. Thus, we deduce the optimal policies and show that a modified Mutual Fund Theorem consisting of three funds holds. Finally, for the CRRA utility function, we explicitly give the optimal consumption and portfolio policies. Numerical examples are included to illustrate the obtained results.
文摘Suppression effect in multiple regression analysis may be more common in research than what is currently recognized. We have reviewed several literatures of interest which treats the concept and types of suppressor variables. Also, we have highlighted systematic ways to identify suppression effect in multiple regressions using statistics such as: R2, sum of squares, regression weight and comparing zero-order correlations with Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) respectively. We also establish that suppression effect is a function of multicollinearity;however, a suppressor variable should only be allowed in a regression analysis if its VIF is less than five (5).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 10872045 and10721062)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. NCET-09-0096)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. DC10030104)
文摘The inflation mechanism is examined for a composite cylindrical tube composed of two incompressible rubber materials, and the inner surface of the tube is subjected to a suddenly applied radial pressure. The mathematical model of the problem is formulated, and the corresponding governing equation is reduced to a second-order ordinary differential equation by means of the incompressible condition of the material, the boundary conditions, and the continuity conditions of the radial displacement and the radial stress of the cylindrical tube. Moreover, the first integral of the equation is obtained. The qualitative analyses of static inflation and dynamic inflation of the tube are presented. Particularly, the effects of material parameters, structure parameters, and the radial pressure on radial inflation and nonlinearly periodic oscillation of the tube are discussed by combining numerical examples.
文摘Taking the Hubble parameter directly as a function of the scalar field instead of as a function of time,H = H( ), we present a new exact solution in the new inflation model with induced gravity. This includes solution which is inflation for < > end, and develops smoothly towards radiation-like evolution for ≥ end. The inflation is driven by the evolution of the field with inflation potential, V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.density, ns, is computed and ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer (COBE) satellite.the dex of the scalar effective cosmological constant Aeff tends to zero when inflation ends.
文摘Taking the cosmological expansion rate directly as a function of field , H = H( ), we present a new exact solution to Einstein's equations that describe the evolution of cosmological chaotic inflation model. The inflation is driven by the evolution of scalar field with inflation potential V( ) = λ 2 v2)2.8 ( 2- 2)2.The spectral indices of the scalar density ns and gravitational wave fluctuations ng are computed. The value of ns lies well inside the limits set by the cosmic background explorer satellite.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program under contract No.2017YFA0604202the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.B210201022the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42176003,41690124,41806032 and 41806038.
文摘Parameter estimation is defined as the process to adjust or optimize the model parameter using observations.A long-term problem in ensemble-based parameter estimation methods is that the parameters are assumed to be constant during model integration.This assumption will cause underestimation of parameter ensemble spread,such that the parameter ensemble tends to collapse before an optimal solution is found.In this work,a two-stage inflation method is developed for parameter estimation,which can address the collapse of parameter ensemble due to the constant evolution of parameters.In the first stage,adaptive inflation is applied to the augmented states,in which the global scalar parameter is transformed to fields with spatial dependence.In the second stage,extra multiplicative inflation is used to inflate the scalar parameter ensemble to compensate for constant parameter evolution,where the inflation factor is determined according to the spread growth ratio of model states.The observation system simulation experiment with Community Earth System Model(CESM)shows that the second stage of the inflation scheme plays a crucial role in successful parameter estimation.With proper multiplicative inflation factors,the parameter estimation can effectively reduce the parameter biases,providing more accurate analyses.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11172137)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.20122910001)
文摘The inflation of a five-ring cone parachute with the airflow velocity of 18 m/s is studied based on the simplified arbitrary Lagrange Euler （SALE）/fluid-structure interaction （FSI） method. The numerical results of the canopy shape, stability, opening load, and drag area are obtained, and they are well consistent with the experimental data gained from wind tunnel tests. The method is then used to simulate the opening process under different velocities. It is found that the first load shock affected by the velocity often occurs at the end of the initial inflation stage. For the first time, the phenomena that the inflation distance proportion coefficient increases and the dynamic load coefficient decreases, respectively, with the increase in the velocity are revealed. The above proposed method is competent to solve the large deformation problem without empirial coefficients, and can collect more space-time details of fluid-structure-motion information when it is compared with the traditional method.
文摘The purpose of this study is to contribute to the literature by studying the effects of sudden changes both on crude oil import price and domestic gasoline price on inflation for Turkey, an emerging country. Since an inflation targeting regime is being carried out by the Central Bank of Turkey, determination of such effects is becoming more important. Therefore empirical evidence in this paper will serve as guidance for those countries, which have an in- flation targeting regime. Analyses have been done in the period of October 2005-December 2012 by Markovswitching vector autoregressive （MS-VAR） models which are successful in capturing the nonlinear properties of variables. Using MS-VAR analysis, it is found that there are 2 regimes in the analysis period. Furthermore, regime changes can be dated and the turning points of economic cycles can be determined. In addition, it is found that the effect of the changes in crude oil and domestic gasoline prices on consumer prices and core inflation is not the same under different regimes. Moreover, the sudden increase in gasoline price is more important for consumer price infla- tion than crude oil price shocks. Another finding is the presence of a pass-through effect from oil price and ga- soline price to core inflation.
文摘In this paper, the Holt’s exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to forecast inflation rate of Zambia using the monthly consumer price index (CPI) data from May 2010 to May 2014. Results show that the ARIMA ((12), 1, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the CPI time series data and is therefore suitable for forecasting CPI and subsequently the inflation rate. However, the choice of the Holt’s exponential smoothing is as good as an ARIMA model considering the smaller deviations in the mean absolute percentage error and mean square error. Moreover, the Holt’s exponential smoothing model is less complicated since you do not require specialised software to implement it as is the case for ARIMA models. The forecasted inflation rate for April and May, 2015 is 7.0 and 6.6 respectively.
文摘We were interested, along this work, in the phenomena of the quintessence and the inflation due to the F-harmonic maps, in other words, in the functions of the scalar field such as the exponential and trigo-harmonic maps. We showed that some F-harmonic map such as the trigonometric functions instead of the scalar field in the lagrangian, allow, in the absence of term of potential, reproduce the inflation. However, there are other F-harmonic maps such as exponential maps which can’t produce the inflation;the pressure and the density of this exponential harmonic field being both of the same sign. On the other hand, these exponential harmonic fields redraw well the phenomenon of the quintessence when the variation of these fields remains weak. The problem of coincidence, however remains.
文摘Since July 2010,the prices of geographical indication products have risen with the occurrence of inflation.In contrast with other products,geographical indication products are distinct.The increasing prices of geographical indication goods have their own necessities.From the perspective of the products,they are equipped with appreciation potential due to the cultural pe culiarities.From the historical standpoint,their prices have not been high as well as other agricultural products.Realistically,the increase in their prices results from the costs of labors and raw materials.Therefore,the prices of geographical indication products rise to catch up.Not only are their prices at a reasonable level,but also they are beneficial to increase peasants'income.In con clusion,it is necessary that the strategies which are different from those of other products be adopted to regulate and control the prices of geographical indication products.
文摘The early universe inflation is well known as a promising theory to explain the origin of large-scale structure of universe and to solve the early universe pressing problems. For a reasonable inflation model, the potential during inflation must be very flat, at least, in the direction of the inflaton. To construct the inflaton potential all the known related astrophysics observations should be included. For a general tree-level hybrid inflation potential, which is notdiscussed fully so far, the parameters in it are shown how to be constrained via the astrophysics data observed and to be obtained to the expected accuracy, and to be consistent with cosmology requirements.
