Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This stu...Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.展开更多
This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to ...This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to January 2018, in total 564 event were examined. The reaction of markets to different types of new announcement is investigated and presented separately. Firstly, examination of positive and negative earnings forecast report shows that information shock brings a significant positive and negative returns during the event window. In addition, analysis of different sub-windows showed prices adjust to news quickly and effectively. However, no news announcements bring no significant shock to market, prices are not impacted by slight change forecasts. In general, empirical results provided evidences of semi-strong market efficiency. Earnings forecast announcements possess huge impact on market prices, therefore participants can make abnormal profit if they act on the information very quickly. However, beyond event window information becomes ineffective and does not possess any kind of content to make above market returns .展开更多
In this study,the impact of business and financial information integration(BFⅡ)on the voluntary management earnings forecasts(VMEFs)of listed firms in China between 2008 and 2018 is investigated.Drawing on litigation...In this study,the impact of business and financial information integration(BFⅡ)on the voluntary management earnings forecasts(VMEFs)of listed firms in China between 2008 and 2018 is investigated.Drawing on litigation cost and ability signaling theories,we find that the adoption of BFⅡencourages top managers to disclose VMEFs.BFⅡfirms are identified through the textual analysis of management discussion and analysis(MD&A)reports,and the empirical results indicate that BFⅡfirms have a higher probability and frequency of issuing VMEFs than non-BFⅡfirms.The results remain robust after we identify causality by applying a propensity score matching and difference-in-differences(PSM-DID)test and use an alternate measure of BFⅡ.Further tests show that BFⅡfirms issue more accurate VMEFs and are able to issue them at an earlier stage.We also find that the positive relationship between BFⅡand VMEFs is weakened if the media expresses concern about the uncertainty of BFⅡadoption.展开更多
Customers are one of the key external stakeholders for a company.Using Chinese listed companies’data from 2007 to 2015,this paper examines the impact of customer concentration on information disclosure from the pers...Customers are one of the key external stakeholders for a company.Using Chinese listed companies’data from 2007 to 2015,this paper examines the impact of customer concentration on information disclosure from the perspective of management earnings forecast.Empirical results show that a more concentrated customer base induces companies to disclose more positive earnings forecast.In addition,the positive association between customer concentration and management earnings forecast is more pronounced with higher economic policy uncertainty.Further analyses reveal that companies issue more positive earnings forecast to reduce the financing risk and protect their relationshipspecific investment.Also,customer concentration reduces the consistency of earnings forecast since the deviation of the forecast performance and the actual performance is greater.This paper enriches the literature on the determinants of management earnings forecast and the effects of stakeholders on corporate financial behaviour.Our findings also provide implications for investors,regulators,and various stakeholders to understand management earnings forecast decisions.展开更多
We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associate...We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associated with MEF issuance,while recognized intangibles(capitalized)show a positive association.These findings hold across various factors such as analysts’coverage,industry type and for a subsample that excludes software firms permitted to capitalize software development costs under SFAS No.86.In additional,we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of MEF issuance based on the characteristics of firm intangibility.We find a significant increase in the likelihood of MEF issuance for higher unrecognized intangibles with greater earnings uncertainty.This suggests that managers may prioritize delivering valuerelevant information to market participants to alleviate uncertainty.展开更多
文摘Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.
文摘This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to January 2018, in total 564 event were examined. The reaction of markets to different types of new announcement is investigated and presented separately. Firstly, examination of positive and negative earnings forecast report shows that information shock brings a significant positive and negative returns during the event window. In addition, analysis of different sub-windows showed prices adjust to news quickly and effectively. However, no news announcements bring no significant shock to market, prices are not impacted by slight change forecasts. In general, empirical results provided evidences of semi-strong market efficiency. Earnings forecast announcements possess huge impact on market prices, therefore participants can make abnormal profit if they act on the information very quickly. However, beyond event window information becomes ineffective and does not possess any kind of content to make above market returns .
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71902210)the Youth Research Fund of the Ministry of Education for Humanities and Social Sciences(Grant No.19YJC630092)+2 种基金the Program for Innovation Research in Central University of Finance and Economics(Grant No.CUFE 20190111)Social Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China(Grant No.GD19CGL05)Graduate Research and Innovation Fund Project of Central University of Finance and Economics(Grant No.20182Y006)
文摘In this study,the impact of business and financial information integration(BFⅡ)on the voluntary management earnings forecasts(VMEFs)of listed firms in China between 2008 and 2018 is investigated.Drawing on litigation cost and ability signaling theories,we find that the adoption of BFⅡencourages top managers to disclose VMEFs.BFⅡfirms are identified through the textual analysis of management discussion and analysis(MD&A)reports,and the empirical results indicate that BFⅡfirms have a higher probability and frequency of issuing VMEFs than non-BFⅡfirms.The results remain robust after we identify causality by applying a propensity score matching and difference-in-differences(PSM-DID)test and use an alternate measure of BFⅡ.Further tests show that BFⅡfirms issue more accurate VMEFs and are able to issue them at an earlier stage.We also find that the positive relationship between BFⅡand VMEFs is weakened if the media expresses concern about the uncertainty of BFⅡadoption.
基金This research is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central U niversities and the Research Funds of Renmin U niversity of China(China)[ Grant no.19XNL014].
文摘Customers are one of the key external stakeholders for a company.Using Chinese listed companies’data from 2007 to 2015,this paper examines the impact of customer concentration on information disclosure from the perspective of management earnings forecast.Empirical results show that a more concentrated customer base induces companies to disclose more positive earnings forecast.In addition,the positive association between customer concentration and management earnings forecast is more pronounced with higher economic policy uncertainty.Further analyses reveal that companies issue more positive earnings forecast to reduce the financing risk and protect their relationshipspecific investment.Also,customer concentration reduces the consistency of earnings forecast since the deviation of the forecast performance and the actual performance is greater.This paper enriches the literature on the determinants of management earnings forecast and the effects of stakeholders on corporate financial behaviour.Our findings also provide implications for investors,regulators,and various stakeholders to understand management earnings forecast decisions.
文摘We investigate how the accounting treatment of intangible assets on managers’likelihood of issuing voluntary earnings guidance(MEF).We find that unrecognized intangibles(immediately expensed)are negatively associated with MEF issuance,while recognized intangibles(capitalized)show a positive association.These findings hold across various factors such as analysts’coverage,industry type and for a subsample that excludes software firms permitted to capitalize software development costs under SFAS No.86.In additional,we investigate the cross-sectional determinants of MEF issuance based on the characteristics of firm intangibility.We find a significant increase in the likelihood of MEF issuance for higher unrecognized intangibles with greater earnings uncertainty.This suggests that managers may prioritize delivering valuerelevant information to market participants to alleviate uncertainty.
