This paper seeks to highlight the macroeconomic asymmetries and social impacts among eurozone countries which occurred during the time of the financial crisis,emphasising the urgent need to revise the framework of eco...This paper seeks to highlight the macroeconomic asymmetries and social impacts among eurozone countries which occurred during the time of the financial crisis,emphasising the urgent need to revise the framework of economic governance.The analysis focuses on the growing macroeconomic and social imbalances on a representative sample of selected eurozone member-states(Euro(€)North and Euro(€)South)which had posed a threat to economic sustainability and social coherence.展开更多
This study proposes a novel fractional discrete-time macroeconomic system with incommensurate order.The dynamical behavior of the proposed macroeconomic model is investigated analytically and numerically.In particular...This study proposes a novel fractional discrete-time macroeconomic system with incommensurate order.The dynamical behavior of the proposed macroeconomic model is investigated analytically and numerically.In particular,the zero equilibrium point stability is investigated to demonstrate that the discrete macroeconomic system exhibits chaotic behavior.Through using bifurcation diagrams,phase attractors,the maximum Lyapunov exponent and the 0–1 test,we verified that chaos exists in the new model with incommensurate fractional orders.Additionally,a complexity analysis is carried out utilizing the approximation entropy(ApEn)and C_(0)complexity to prove that chaos exists.Finally,the main findings of this study are presented using numerical simulations.展开更多
In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief intro...In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.展开更多
We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm...We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.展开更多
This study analyzed the potential impact of the increased oil volatility on the industries and the global economy. Specifically, it separated the oil price fluctuations into positive and negative components, and model...This study analyzed the potential impact of the increased oil volatility on the industries and the global economy. Specifically, it separated the oil price fluctuations into positive and negative components, and modeled the return of industry portfolios with them. Next, the sensitivity of the airline industry to oil price was investigated to gauge the effectiveness of their hedging strategies, with the hope that the methodology can be extended to other industries. In addition, this paper explored the macroeconomic impact of oil price movements by examining the benchmarks such as GDP and CPI.展开更多
As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and nation...As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.展开更多
Forex(foreign exchange)is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders.It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of ...Forex(foreign exchange)is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders.It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of the exchange rate between two currencies.However,incorrect predictions in Forex may cause much higher losses than in other typical financial markets.The direction prediction requirement makes the problem quite different from other typical time-series forecasting problems.In this work,we used a popular deep learning tool called“long short-term memory”(LSTM),which has been shown to be very effective in many time-series forecasting problems,to make direction predictions in Forex.We utilized two different data sets—namely,macroeconomic data and technical indicator data—since in the financial world,fundamental and technical analysis are two main techniques,and they use those two data sets,respectively.Our proposed hybrid model,which combines two separate LSTMs corresponding to these two data sets,was found to be quite successful in experiments using real data.展开更多
The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective all...The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.展开更多
In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investm...In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.展开更多
This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017.ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is appl...This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017.ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables.The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate.Based on the results of this study,it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.展开更多
The paper presents and examines the economic policies that Zimbabwe has employed since its attainment of political independence from Great Britain in 1980.The liberation struggle was undertaken mainly to free the coun...The paper presents and examines the economic policies that Zimbabwe has employed since its attainment of political independence from Great Britain in 1980.The liberation struggle was undertaken mainly to free the country from capitalism and replace it with the socialist ideology which was assumed to be an all-inclusive economic policy.We apply a theoretical economic policy analysis approach to assess the impact of the country’s policies used since 1980 on the growth and development of the financial sector.The research data used in the study were mainly drawn from monetary policy statements(MPS)and national budgets for the period under investigation.The economic policies used were found to be very good in theoretical principle but their politicization,nepotism,corruption,and lack of financial back-up led to inconsistencies and their negative impact on growth and development prospects of the financial sector since the year 1980.展开更多
This paper describes the relation between Greek imports and exports of paper and paperboard and a number of major macroeconomic variables, such as population, gross domestic product, the industrial production index an...This paper describes the relation between Greek imports and exports of paper and paperboard and a number of major macroeconomic variables, such as population, gross domestic product, the industrial production index and domestic round wood production. The Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysis were employed in the analysis of the data. The study shows that there is no significant relation between paper and paperboard imports as a dependent variable and population, gross domestic product and domestic round wood production as independent variables. Despite this, an acceptable model is constructed using only gross domestic product as an independent variable. The study also shows that there is a significant relation between the export of paper and paperboard and gross domestic product, the industrial production index and round wood production. The results indicate that gross domestic product as an independent variable has the greatest effect on wood imports and exports in Greece during the period studied. Using these models is confirmed that the use of socioeconomic variables and the construction of future scenarios for the Greek forest sector is very efficient considering the special characteristics of the Greek economy. These models could help the establishment of economic growth, the reduction of the financial and ecological deficit, the implementation of economic reforms and to increase new investments.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extend Greek state-owned enterprises engage in earnings management techniques during 2012-2016.Most prior studies on earnings management have used data from ...The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extend Greek state-owned enterprises engage in earnings management techniques during 2012-2016.Most prior studies on earnings management have used data from large economies with relative stable macroeconomic contexts(e.g.,USA).Our knowledge about earnings management in smaller economies is rather limited.To fill this void,we conducted our study in Greece and focused on the abovementioned period,which is very interesting given that Greece experienced a substantial political and macroeconomic instability(e.g.,four elections,one referendum,capital controls,and two memorandums).Two different models(i.e.,The Earnings Distribution Model and the Modified Jones Model)are used to provide answers to the research questions.The sample is composed of 50 state-owned enterprises.The results show that Greek state-owned enterprises did not adopt any earnings management techniques during the examined period.These results are rather robust given that they come from two different models.According to the literature,macroeconomic and political instability provide incentives to managers to use earnings management techniques.Interestingly though,our results suggest that this is not the case for a smaller economy.The findings of this study will allow investors,auditors,and users of the financial statements to make better decisions when studying companies that are experiencing those difficulties.The adoption of two different methods and the similar results is an indication of more robust and valid findings.展开更多
Ⅰ.New macroeconomic controls not fully realised China introduced a new set of macroeconomic controls in 2004 in an attempt to control excessive growth.Due to the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, China’s economy...Ⅰ.New macroeconomic controls not fully realised China introduced a new set of macroeconomic controls in 2004 in an attempt to control excessive growth.Due to the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, China’s economy grew at a low growth rate between 1998 and 2001.However it accelerated from 2002 onwards,and saw a GDP increase of 11%in the fourth quarler of 2003,a historical high since 1997展开更多
Improvement of the macroeconomic governance system as an important part of the national governance system is a key initiative to address major economic problems in the new era.The coordination and economic regulatory ...Improvement of the macroeconomic governance system as an important part of the national governance system is a key initiative to address major economic problems in the new era.The coordination and economic regulatory effects of fiscal and monetary policies are subject to the arrangements of fiscal and financial decentralization systems.Analysis revealed a mismatch between China’s fiscal income decentralization and fiscal spending decentralization,as manifested in the clear decentralization of fiscal revenue and vague decentralization of fiscal spending;in pursuing local economic stability,local governments seek other sources of revenue and compete for financial resources,as manifested in apparent financial centralization and implicit financial decentralization,causing financial decentralization to be inconsistent between various levels of government and between government and the market.The above-mentioned problems are reflected in mutual conversion between public finance and financial intermediation as two financial allocation methods and mutual transmission between fiscal and financial risks,making the case for enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.In creating a scientific macroeconomic governance system,therefore,we must establish clear local government responsibilities,reduce the proportion of local fiscal spending,clarify the orientations and relief boundary of fiscal and monetary policies,moderately decentralize financial powers,and give better play to the role of local governments in improving the quality of economic development and controlling major risks.展开更多
Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy ...Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy can be distinguished.The first is a“normal”state;the second is crisis and recession.The“normal”state is the period after the recession and before the next crisis.During this period,the basic laws of the market economy work.During a crisis,the relationship between the level of interest rates and borrowing by households and businesses is broken.This explains the ineffectiveness of the policy of lowering interest rates.Different states of the economy have their own laws,and you cannot extrapolate tools that are successful under“normal”market conditions linearly to the crisis state of the economy.Why does the interest rate policy during the period of the“normal”state of the economy not adjust its development in order to prevent the onset of the crisis?Firstly,the conditions for the emergence of crisis phenomena are created by the interest rate policy at the very beginning of the business cycle,when central banks set and maintain low interest rates for a relatively long period.Secondly,by the end of the business cycle,the credit burden in economy reaches its maximum,so there is no further possibility of expanding effective demand by decreasing interest rates.Thirdly,interest rate policy is an instrument for rough adjustment of the economy,indiscriminately affecting all participants in economic relations.In an attempt to stimulate the economy,the central bank creates the conditions for increasing its imbalance.Fourth,at the end of the business cycle,the interest rate policy does not actually support the real economy,but only the stock market.Fifth,the Fed’s policy has formed a pro-crisis conditioned reflex among market participants.Thus,central banks should leave the determination of the level of interest rates to the free market.展开更多
This research develops a hybrid input-output model to quantify the economy-wide impact of capture fisheries on the economy. The method regards capture fisheries to be the “carrier branches” producing “core inputs”...This research develops a hybrid input-output model to quantify the economy-wide impact of capture fisheries on the economy. The method regards capture fisheries to be the “carrier branches” producing “core inputs”, which can drive the other fisheries sectors in the Ghosh supply-driven model. These fisheries sectors are all linked with the rest of the economy and can affect it through backward linkages in the Leontief demand-driven model. The empirical findings based on the Thai fisheries corroborate findings in other literature and further reveal that capture fisheries make a much greater contribution to the economy than is usually thought.展开更多
In this paper, we conduct research on the infl uence of macroeconomic management of the enterprise from the perspective of general analysis of inertial. Enterprise economic management and economic development is the r...In this paper, we conduct research on the infl uence of macroeconomic management of the enterprise from the perspective of general analysis of inertial. Enterprise economic management and economic development is the relationship between the local and global, between enterprises is global economic development, guide and lead the enterprise smooth and orderly economic management; Enterprise economic management is local while the collaboration and auxiliary enterprise economic development. Only under the guidance of holistic view of the enterprise economic development, the enterprise economic management was able to fi nd right direction. Actively explore peopleoriented human resources management system, new measures. People-oriented human resources management of new system, new initiatives, and throughout its intrinsic nature factors to respect, understanding, and give full play to the role of the basic guiding ideology. Our research provides the new paradigm.展开更多
This study addressed the impacts of the 2008 US recession on water extraction rates from the Ogallala Aquifer in the Southern High Plains of Texas by examining the differences in projected macroeconomic variables and ...This study addressed the impacts of the 2008 US recession on water extraction rates from the Ogallala Aquifer in the Southern High Plains of Texas by examining the differences in projected macroeconomic variables and how they impact agricultural production and irrigation water use. The approach used pre- and post-recession FAPRI-based projections of commodity markets and an economic optimization model formulated for the Ogallala Aquifer to simulate water use adjustments. Results indicate that, based on the projections used, the 2008 recession decreased, then increased water use slightly in the representative counties, ceteris paribus, with minimal cumulative effect, and water use responsiveness to economic forces within the region was variable. This analysis also demonstrates that relating policy and economic changes to resource use changes is possible.展开更多
文摘This paper seeks to highlight the macroeconomic asymmetries and social impacts among eurozone countries which occurred during the time of the financial crisis,emphasising the urgent need to revise the framework of economic governance.The analysis focuses on the growing macroeconomic and social imbalances on a representative sample of selected eurozone member-states(Euro(€)North and Euro(€)South)which had posed a threat to economic sustainability and social coherence.
文摘This study proposes a novel fractional discrete-time macroeconomic system with incommensurate order.The dynamical behavior of the proposed macroeconomic model is investigated analytically and numerically.In particular,the zero equilibrium point stability is investigated to demonstrate that the discrete macroeconomic system exhibits chaotic behavior.Through using bifurcation diagrams,phase attractors,the maximum Lyapunov exponent and the 0–1 test,we verified that chaos exists in the new model with incommensurate fractional orders.Additionally,a complexity analysis is carried out utilizing the approximation entropy(ApEn)and C_(0)complexity to prove that chaos exists.Finally,the main findings of this study are presented using numerical simulations.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71631004,Key Project)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(71625001)+2 种基金the Basic Scientific Center Project of National Science Foundation of China:Econometrics and Quantitative Policy Evaluation(71988101)the Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(19YJA910003)China Scholarship Council Funded Project(201806315045).
文摘In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.
基金The author is infinitely thankful to his friend and colleague M.Rubinstein for valuable discussions and an invariable interest to his work.The author is also thankful to C.Miller for his high estimation of the author’s efforts.Of course,all errors are author’s full responsibility.
文摘We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.
文摘This study analyzed the potential impact of the increased oil volatility on the industries and the global economy. Specifically, it separated the oil price fluctuations into positive and negative components, and modeled the return of industry portfolios with them. Next, the sensitivity of the airline industry to oil price was investigated to gauge the effectiveness of their hedging strategies, with the hope that the methodology can be extended to other industries. In addition, this paper explored the macroeconomic impact of oil price movements by examining the benchmarks such as GDP and CPI.
基金Supported by National Social Science Fund Project(11BJY113)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(SWU 1509516&1509437)
文摘As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.
文摘Forex(foreign exchange)is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders.It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of the exchange rate between two currencies.However,incorrect predictions in Forex may cause much higher losses than in other typical financial markets.The direction prediction requirement makes the problem quite different from other typical time-series forecasting problems.In this work,we used a popular deep learning tool called“long short-term memory”(LSTM),which has been shown to be very effective in many time-series forecasting problems,to make direction predictions in Forex.We utilized two different data sets—namely,macroeconomic data and technical indicator data—since in the financial world,fundamental and technical analysis are two main techniques,and they use those two data sets,respectively.Our proposed hybrid model,which combines two separate LSTMs corresponding to these two data sets,was found to be quite successful in experiments using real data.
基金Supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China Youth Project(13CJL064)Beijing Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project(13JGC097)
文摘The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.
文摘In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.
文摘This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017.ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables.The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate.Based on the results of this study,it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.
文摘The paper presents and examines the economic policies that Zimbabwe has employed since its attainment of political independence from Great Britain in 1980.The liberation struggle was undertaken mainly to free the country from capitalism and replace it with the socialist ideology which was assumed to be an all-inclusive economic policy.We apply a theoretical economic policy analysis approach to assess the impact of the country’s policies used since 1980 on the growth and development of the financial sector.The research data used in the study were mainly drawn from monetary policy statements(MPS)and national budgets for the period under investigation.The economic policies used were found to be very good in theoretical principle but their politicization,nepotism,corruption,and lack of financial back-up led to inconsistencies and their negative impact on growth and development prospects of the financial sector since the year 1980.
文摘This paper describes the relation between Greek imports and exports of paper and paperboard and a number of major macroeconomic variables, such as population, gross domestic product, the industrial production index and domestic round wood production. The Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysis were employed in the analysis of the data. The study shows that there is no significant relation between paper and paperboard imports as a dependent variable and population, gross domestic product and domestic round wood production as independent variables. Despite this, an acceptable model is constructed using only gross domestic product as an independent variable. The study also shows that there is a significant relation between the export of paper and paperboard and gross domestic product, the industrial production index and round wood production. The results indicate that gross domestic product as an independent variable has the greatest effect on wood imports and exports in Greece during the period studied. Using these models is confirmed that the use of socioeconomic variables and the construction of future scenarios for the Greek forest sector is very efficient considering the special characteristics of the Greek economy. These models could help the establishment of economic growth, the reduction of the financial and ecological deficit, the implementation of economic reforms and to increase new investments.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extend Greek state-owned enterprises engage in earnings management techniques during 2012-2016.Most prior studies on earnings management have used data from large economies with relative stable macroeconomic contexts(e.g.,USA).Our knowledge about earnings management in smaller economies is rather limited.To fill this void,we conducted our study in Greece and focused on the abovementioned period,which is very interesting given that Greece experienced a substantial political and macroeconomic instability(e.g.,four elections,one referendum,capital controls,and two memorandums).Two different models(i.e.,The Earnings Distribution Model and the Modified Jones Model)are used to provide answers to the research questions.The sample is composed of 50 state-owned enterprises.The results show that Greek state-owned enterprises did not adopt any earnings management techniques during the examined period.These results are rather robust given that they come from two different models.According to the literature,macroeconomic and political instability provide incentives to managers to use earnings management techniques.Interestingly though,our results suggest that this is not the case for a smaller economy.The findings of this study will allow investors,auditors,and users of the financial statements to make better decisions when studying companies that are experiencing those difficulties.The adoption of two different methods and the similar results is an indication of more robust and valid findings.
文摘Ⅰ.New macroeconomic controls not fully realised China introduced a new set of macroeconomic controls in 2004 in an attempt to control excessive growth.Due to the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis, China’s economy grew at a low growth rate between 1998 and 2001.However it accelerated from 2002 onwards,and saw a GDP increase of 11%in the fourth quarler of 2003,a historical high since 1997
基金late-stage funding from the National Social Science Fund of China(NSSFC)“Study on Financial Decentralization,Financial Risks and Financial Governance”(Grant No.20FJYA002).
文摘Improvement of the macroeconomic governance system as an important part of the national governance system is a key initiative to address major economic problems in the new era.The coordination and economic regulatory effects of fiscal and monetary policies are subject to the arrangements of fiscal and financial decentralization systems.Analysis revealed a mismatch between China’s fiscal income decentralization and fiscal spending decentralization,as manifested in the clear decentralization of fiscal revenue and vague decentralization of fiscal spending;in pursuing local economic stability,local governments seek other sources of revenue and compete for financial resources,as manifested in apparent financial centralization and implicit financial decentralization,causing financial decentralization to be inconsistent between various levels of government and between government and the market.The above-mentioned problems are reflected in mutual conversion between public finance and financial intermediation as two financial allocation methods and mutual transmission between fiscal and financial risks,making the case for enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.In creating a scientific macroeconomic governance system,therefore,we must establish clear local government responsibilities,reduce the proportion of local fiscal spending,clarify the orientations and relief boundary of fiscal and monetary policies,moderately decentralize financial powers,and give better play to the role of local governments in improving the quality of economic development and controlling major risks.
文摘Why does interest rate policy not work in the economy as economic theory suggests?To understand why,you need to look at the economy from a higher level of abstraction.With this approach,only two states of the economy can be distinguished.The first is a“normal”state;the second is crisis and recession.The“normal”state is the period after the recession and before the next crisis.During this period,the basic laws of the market economy work.During a crisis,the relationship between the level of interest rates and borrowing by households and businesses is broken.This explains the ineffectiveness of the policy of lowering interest rates.Different states of the economy have their own laws,and you cannot extrapolate tools that are successful under“normal”market conditions linearly to the crisis state of the economy.Why does the interest rate policy during the period of the“normal”state of the economy not adjust its development in order to prevent the onset of the crisis?Firstly,the conditions for the emergence of crisis phenomena are created by the interest rate policy at the very beginning of the business cycle,when central banks set and maintain low interest rates for a relatively long period.Secondly,by the end of the business cycle,the credit burden in economy reaches its maximum,so there is no further possibility of expanding effective demand by decreasing interest rates.Thirdly,interest rate policy is an instrument for rough adjustment of the economy,indiscriminately affecting all participants in economic relations.In an attempt to stimulate the economy,the central bank creates the conditions for increasing its imbalance.Fourth,at the end of the business cycle,the interest rate policy does not actually support the real economy,but only the stock market.Fifth,the Fed’s policy has formed a pro-crisis conditioned reflex among market participants.Thus,central banks should leave the determination of the level of interest rates to the free market.
文摘This research develops a hybrid input-output model to quantify the economy-wide impact of capture fisheries on the economy. The method regards capture fisheries to be the “carrier branches” producing “core inputs”, which can drive the other fisheries sectors in the Ghosh supply-driven model. These fisheries sectors are all linked with the rest of the economy and can affect it through backward linkages in the Leontief demand-driven model. The empirical findings based on the Thai fisheries corroborate findings in other literature and further reveal that capture fisheries make a much greater contribution to the economy than is usually thought.
文摘In this paper, we conduct research on the infl uence of macroeconomic management of the enterprise from the perspective of general analysis of inertial. Enterprise economic management and economic development is the relationship between the local and global, between enterprises is global economic development, guide and lead the enterprise smooth and orderly economic management; Enterprise economic management is local while the collaboration and auxiliary enterprise economic development. Only under the guidance of holistic view of the enterprise economic development, the enterprise economic management was able to fi nd right direction. Actively explore peopleoriented human resources management system, new measures. People-oriented human resources management of new system, new initiatives, and throughout its intrinsic nature factors to respect, understanding, and give full play to the role of the basic guiding ideology. Our research provides the new paradigm.
文摘This study addressed the impacts of the 2008 US recession on water extraction rates from the Ogallala Aquifer in the Southern High Plains of Texas by examining the differences in projected macroeconomic variables and how they impact agricultural production and irrigation water use. The approach used pre- and post-recession FAPRI-based projections of commodity markets and an economic optimization model formulated for the Ogallala Aquifer to simulate water use adjustments. Results indicate that, based on the projections used, the 2008 recession decreased, then increased water use slightly in the representative counties, ceteris paribus, with minimal cumulative effect, and water use responsiveness to economic forces within the region was variable. This analysis also demonstrates that relating policy and economic changes to resource use changes is possible.
