In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming ...In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.展开更多
According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since t...According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.展开更多
The local skin temperatures of 22 subjects at air temperatures of 21,24,26,29 ℃ are measured,and the mean skin temperatures are calculated by ten skin temperature measuring points.The thermal comfort levels and the t...The local skin temperatures of 22 subjects at air temperatures of 21,24,26,29 ℃ are measured,and the mean skin temperatures are calculated by ten skin temperature measuring points.The thermal comfort levels and the thermal sensations of these subjects are also investigated by a questionnaire.The Mahalanobis distance discrimination method is applied to establish the evaluation model for the thermal comfort based on the mean skin temperature.The experimental results indicate that the difference of the mean skin temperatures between the comfort level and the discomfort level is significant.Using the evaluation model,the mean skin temperature at the thermal comfort level is 32.6 to 33.7 ℃,and the thermal comfort levels of 72% of the subjects are correctly evaluated.The accuracy of the evaluation model can be improved when the effects of sex of the subject on the mean skin temperature and the thermal comfort are considered.It can be concluded that the mean skin temperature can be used as an effective physiological indicator to evaluate human thermal comfort in a steady thermal environment.展开更多
Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Hom...Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects in the results.展开更多
We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used metho...We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using the REOF method we divided the region into 4 sub-regions:the Northern region,the Plateau region,the Southern Xinjiang region and the Eastern region.The region’s annual mean air temperature transition has regional differences.The Plateau and Southern Xinjiang re-gions got warmer steadily without any obvious acceleration in the rate of warming.The Northern region’s warming started about 5-years earlier than that of the low latitude Eastern region.The ’Startup region’ of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,appears to undergo temperature changes 3 to 10 years earlier than the other regions,and exhibits inter-decadal variations 1 to 2 years ahead of the other regions.展开更多
The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Funct...The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method, to understand the detailed features of its temporal and spatial variations. The results show that there was a high consistency of the monthly mean surface air temperature, with a secondarily different variation between the north and the south of the plateau. Warming trend has existed at all stations since the 1960s, while the warming rates were different in various zones. The source regions of big rivers had intense warming tendency. June, November and December were the top three fast-warming months since the 1960s; while April, July and September presented dramatic warming tendency during the last decade.展开更多
To improve the applicability of the global pressure and temperature 2 wet(GPT2w)model in estimating the weighted mean temperature in China and adjacent areas,the error compensation technology based on the neural netwo...To improve the applicability of the global pressure and temperature 2 wet(GPT2w)model in estimating the weighted mean temperature in China and adjacent areas,the error compensation technology based on the neural network was proposed,and a total of 374800 meteorological profiles measured from 2006 to 2015 of 100 radiosonde stations distributed in China and adjacent areas were used to establish an enhanced empirical model for estimating the weighted mean temperature in this region.The data from 2016 to 2018 of the remaining 92 stations in this region was used to test the performance of the proposed model.Results show that the proposed model is about 14.9%better than the GPT2w model and about 7.6%better than the Bevis model with measured surface temperature in accuracy.The performance of the proposed model is significantly improved compared with the GPT2w model not only at different height ranges,but also in different months throughout the year.Moreover,the accuracy of the weighted mean temperature estimation is greatly improved in the northwestern region of China where the radiosonde stations are very rarely distributed.The proposed model shows a great application potential in the nationwide real-time ground-based global navigation satellite system(GNSS)water vapor remote sensing.展开更多
In terms of 34-year monthly mean temperature series in 1946-1979,the multi-level maPPing model of neural netWork BP type was applied to calculate the system's fractual dimension Do=2'8,leading tO a three-level...In terms of 34-year monthly mean temperature series in 1946-1979,the multi-level maPPing model of neural netWork BP type was applied to calculate the system's fractual dimension Do=2'8,leading tO a three-level model of this type with ixj=3x2,k=l,and the 1980 monthly mean temperture predichon on a long-t6rm basis were prepared by steadily modifying the weighting coefficient,making for the correlation coefficient of 97% with the measurements.Furthermore,the weighhng parameter was modified for each month of 1980 by means of observations,therefore constrcuhng monthly mean temperature forecasts from January to December of the year,reaching the correlation of 99.9% with the measurements.Likewise,the resulting 1981 monthly predictions on a long-range basis with 1946-1980 corresponding records yielded the correlahon of 98% and the month-tO month forecasts of 99.4%.展开更多
Piloti is commonly used in tropical and subtropical climate zones to get high wind velocity and create shadowed areas in order to optimize the living environment of residential blocks,but there are few studies to reve...Piloti is commonly used in tropical and subtropical climate zones to get high wind velocity and create shadowed areas in order to optimize the living environment of residential blocks,but there are few studies to reveal the influence of piloti on the radiant environment of residential blocks systematically. Taking the city of Guangzhou as an example,using 3-D Unsteady State Heat Balance Radiation Calculation Method,this paper shows that the mean radiant temperature( MRT) under piloti area increases with the increase of piloti ratio,and especially when piloti ratio is equal to 100%,the MRT increase trend becomes sharp. The MRT of exposed area decreases with the increase of piloti ratio,especially when piloti ratio reaches 100%,the decrease trend of MRT becomes sharp,which offers the reference for the study on piloti design in subtropical climate zones and further research on living environment by CFD simulation in residential blocks.展开更多
For building the analytical model of mean temperature in rail universal rolling, the cross-section of workpieces and the profile of horizontal roll and vertical roll are simplified rationally. The mean temperature of ...For building the analytical model of mean temperature in rail universal rolling, the cross-section of workpieces and the profile of horizontal roll and vertical roll are simplified rationally. The mean temperature of the web of rail, the top of rail and the base of rail are considered individually. The temperature rises for plastic deformation and friction incorresponding deformation zone, the temperature drop for contact is calculated on the base of variation principle and energy conservation law. Then the mean temperature is obtained. For verifying the theoretical model, the 18 kg/m light rail universal rolling experiments are accomplished in Yanshan University Rolling Laboratory, China and the surface temperature is measured. The surface temperature is not exact enough to express the true temperature and the mean temperature can show the status of the true temperature basically. So the mean temperature can be used to express the true temperature and this theoretical model and its results can be applied as an important reference to control the temperature of rail universal rolling and the heat treatment of the rolled rail.展开更多
The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres...The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than 50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the 2Ttest, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements.展开更多
Analysis of the global mean annual temperature anomalies based on land and marine data for the last 88 years (1901-1988) of this century has been carried out with a view to find any relationship with failures in India...Analysis of the global mean annual temperature anomalies based on land and marine data for the last 88 years (1901-1988) of this century has been carried out with a view to find any relationship with failures in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. On the climatological scale (i.e. 30 years) it has been noticed that there is an abnormal increase in the frequency of drought years during epochs of global warming and cooling, while it is considerably less when global temperatures are near normal. Results are unchanged even when the data are filtered out for ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) effect.It has also been noticed that during warm and cold epochs in global temperatures the amount of summer monsoon rainfall decreases as compared to the rainfall during a normal temperature epoch.展开更多
The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Berlin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed.A total of 65 wavelets were received.The temperature has a high quantum certainty,and the change in the...The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Berlin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed.A total of 65 wavelets were received.The temperature has a high quantum certainty,and the change in the average annual temperature of Berlin was identified by a model that contains only two components for prediction.The basis of the forecast at 320 years makes it possible to look into the future until the year 2340.The forecast confirms the conclusions made in the CMIP5 report on global warming.With an increase in the number of components in the model up to five,the forecast is possible only until 2060.Therefore,the model with only two components is workable.The trend is characterized by a modified Mandelbrot equation showing exponential growth with a high growth rate of 1.47421.The wave equation also has an amplitude in the form of the Mandelbrot law(in mathematics,the Laplace law,in biology,the Zipf-Pearl law,in econometrics,the Pareto law),when the exponential growth activity is equal to 1.For 1701,the period of oscillation was 2×60.33333≈120.7 years.By 2021,the period decreased and became equal to 87.6 years.The trend is such that by 2340 the period of oscillation will decrease to 30.2 years.Such an increase in fluctuations indicates an imbalance in climate disturbances in temperature in Berlin.For Berlin,the last three years are characterized by sharp decreases in the average annual temperature from 11.8℃ to 10.5℃,i.e.by 12.4% in 2021.Therefore,the forecast is still unstable,as a further decrease in the average annual temperature of Berlin in the near future may change the picture of the forecast.展开更多
Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days（HTDs）and the mean daily maximum tem...Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days（HTDs）and the mean daily maximum temperature（MDMT）during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied.The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃in the past 45 years.Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time,oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years.The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part,but less in the northern part of East China.The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China.The high temperature process（HTP） was more in the southwestern part,but less in northeastern part of East China.Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July,and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July.In the first 5 years of the 21st century,the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations,both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October,the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.展开更多
Temperature integration where high day temperatures are compensated by lower night temperatures is one strategy that can be used to reduce energy consumption in greenhouses. Crop tolerance to temperature variation is ...Temperature integration where high day temperatures are compensated by lower night temperatures is one strategy that can be used to reduce energy consumption in greenhouses. Crop tolerance to temperature variation is a prerequisite for using such a strategy. Greenhouse experiments were conducted on tomatoes cvs, Capricia, Mecano and Cederico in order to investigate the effect of different day/night temperature regimes (24/17, 27/14 and 30/11℃) where the same mean temperature was maintained for the production and germination of pollen. In addition, fruit quality as determined by fruit firmness, dry matter content, soluble solids, titratable acids, and pH was examined at harvest and after seven and 14 days of storage. The 30/11℃ treatment significantly increased pollen production and germination compared to the 24/17℃ treatment, while the 27/14℃ treatment was generally in between the other two treatments. Fruits grown at the 27/14℃ treatment were significantly firmer, while fruits grown at 24/17℃ had higher dry matter content, soluble solids, and titratable acids compared to the other treatments. There were significant differences between cultivars with respect to firmness, dry matter, titratable acidity, and pH. The quality of the fruits changed during storage, but the storability of the tomatoes was not affected by preharvest temperature treatments. The overall conclusion was that the 27/14℃ treatment was superior to the other two temperature treatments with respect to the studied parameters.展开更多
The zonal averages of temperature (the so-called normal temperatures) for numerous parallels of latitude published between 1852 and 1913 by Dove, Forbes, Ferrel, Spitaler, Batchelder, Arrhenius, von Bezold, Hopfner, v...The zonal averages of temperature (the so-called normal temperatures) for numerous parallels of latitude published between 1852 and 1913 by Dove, Forbes, Ferrel, Spitaler, Batchelder, Arrhenius, von Bezold, Hopfner, von Hann, and Börnstein were used to quantify the global (spherical) and spheroidal mean near-surface temperature of the terrestrial atmosphere. Only the datasets of Dove and Forbes published in the 1850s provided global averages below 〈T〉=14°C, mainly due to the poor coverage of the Southern Hemisphere by observations during that time. The global averages derived from the distributions of normal temperatures published between 1877 and 1913 ranged from 〈T〉=14.0°C (Batchelder) to 〈T〉=15.1°C (Ferrel). The differences between the global and the spheroidal mean near-surface air temperature are marginal. To examine the uncertainty due to interannual variability and different years considered in the historic zonal mean temperature distributions, the historical normal temperatures were perturbed within ±2σ to obtain ensembles of 50 realizations for each dataset. Numerical integrations of the perturbed distributions indicate uncertainties in the global averages in the range of ±0.3°C to ±0.6°C and depended on the number of available normal temperatures. Compared to our results, the global mean temperature of 〈T〉=15.0°C published by von Hann in 1897 and von Bezold in 1901 and 1906 is notably too high, while 〈T〉=14.4°C published by von Hann in 1908 seems to be more adequate within the range of uncertainty. The HadCRUT4 record provided 〈T〉≌?13.7°C for 1851-1880 and 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910. The Berkeley record provided 〈T〉=13.6°C and 〈T〉≌?13.5°C for these periods, respectively. The NASA GISS record yielded 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910 as well. These results are notably lower than those based on the historic zonal means. For 1991-2018, the HadCRUT4, Berkeley, and NASA GISS records provided 〈T〉=14.4°C, 〈T〉=14.5°C, and 〈T〉=14.5°C, respectively. The comparison of the 1991-2018 globally averaged near-surface temperature with those derived from distributions of zonal temperature averages for numerous parallels of latitude suggests no change for the past 100 years.展开更多
Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed by introducing three series, Had- CRUT3, NCDC, and GISS in details. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in NCDC and GISS series. NCDC s...Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed by introducing three series, Had- CRUT3, NCDC, and GISS in details. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in NCDC and GISS series. NCDC series has the most complete spatial coverage among the three by using statistic interpolation technique. The weakened global warming in 2000-2009 as revealed in HadCRUT3 data is possibly caused by the lack of data coverage of this dataset over the Arctic. GISS and NCDC series showed much stronger warming trends during the last 10 years （-0.1 ℃ per 10 years）. Three series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1910-2009 （ 0.70-0.75 ℃ per 100 years）.展开更多
The estimation of Precipitable Water Vapor （PWV） derived from Global Positioning System （GPS） data at the IGS site WUHN is assessed by comparing with PWV obtained from radiosonde data （No.57494） in Wuhan. The ap...The estimation of Precipitable Water Vapor （PWV） derived from Global Positioning System （GPS） data at the IGS site WUHN is assessed by comparing with PWV obtained from radiosonde data （No.57494） in Wuhan. The applicability of Saastamoinen （SAAS）, Hopfield and Black models used for estimating Zenith Hydrostatic Delay （ZHD） and Zenith Wet Delay （ZWD） and different models is verified in the estimation of GPS-derived PWV for the applied area. The experimental results demonstrated that ： 1 ） the precision of PWV estimated from Black model used for calculating ZHD （ ZHDs ） is lower than that of SAAS （ ZHDsAAs ） model and Hopfield model （ZHDn） with the RMS of 4. 16 ram; 2） the RMS of PWV estimated from SAAS model used for calculating ZWD （SAAS） is 3.78 ram; 3 ） the well-known Bevis model gives similar accuracy compared with the site-specific models for Tm in terms of surface temperature （ Ts ） and surface pressure （Ps）, which can reach the accuracy inside 1 mm in the GPS-derived PWV estimates.展开更多
As an important plant species with high protein contents,wild soybean(Glycine soja),has drawn much attention and appeared to be useful for the genetic improvement of soybean germplasms.Since temperature is one of the ...As an important plant species with high protein contents,wild soybean(Glycine soja),has drawn much attention and appeared to be useful for the genetic improvement of soybean germplasms.Since temperature is one of the numerous environmental factors affecting the germination of most plants,an experimental study was carried out to determine the effect of temperature on germination of wild soybean(G.soja)seeds.Germination test was conducted by setting up thirty-six constant and alternating temperature regimes,ranging from 5 to 40 ℃(16 h night/8 h day).Responses in germination rate to these temperature regimes were then used to construct a quadratic response surface,giving estimated germination rates with confidence intervals at P ≤ 0.05.The results showed that germination capacity was significantly greater while exposed to constant temperatures of 25 ℃,and under the alternating temperature regime the optimum temperature occurred at the 20/25,25/25,25/30 ℃ regime(16 h/8 h)with the amplitude widened from 0 to 5 ℃.Together with regional monthly climate data,these results could be used to improve and promote the cultivation of wild soybean(G.soja),making it available to develop the location-specific optimum seeding time and to apply weed-control treatments.展开更多
Taiwan is a hot and humid place;in addition,the sunlight is strong and sufficient,the naturally ventilated classrooms have large-area windows for better lighting and ventilation in Taiwan.However,subjects sitting clos...Taiwan is a hot and humid place;in addition,the sunlight is strong and sufficient,the naturally ventilated classrooms have large-area windows for better lighting and ventilation in Taiwan.However,subjects sitting close to the large-area windows will encounter the problem of radiant temperature asymmetry,which may cause local thermal discomfort during summer.Hence,this paper is to investigate the influence of horizontal radiant temperature asymmetry on the thermal sensation of subjects and the correlative variation of environmental parameters in a warm sitting area.The evaluation results show that the predicted mean vote(PMV)index can be used to predict the overall thermal sensation of a group of sedentary subjects in a warm environment with horizontal radiant temperature asymmetry;even subjects feel local discomfort on exposed parts of their body.The measured results of environmental parameters indicate that the averaged radiant temperature difference is about 4.6 ℃ from right shoulder to left shoulder;the temperature difference does not only cause correlative variations of other environmental parameters,but also result in thermal discomfort on the right cheeks and forearms of subjects in the warm sitting area.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175045).
文摘In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975105 and 42375022)。
文摘According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 approaches the average level of the past five years, the annual average surface temperature anomaly in 2023 of approximately 1.26°C will break the previous highest surface temperature, which was recorded in 2016of approximately 1.25°C(both values relative to the global pre-industrialization period, i.e., the average value from 1850 to1900). With El Ni?o triggering a record-breaking hottest July, record-breaking average annual temperatures will most likely become a reality in 2023.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.5087125)
文摘The local skin temperatures of 22 subjects at air temperatures of 21,24,26,29 ℃ are measured,and the mean skin temperatures are calculated by ten skin temperature measuring points.The thermal comfort levels and the thermal sensations of these subjects are also investigated by a questionnaire.The Mahalanobis distance discrimination method is applied to establish the evaluation model for the thermal comfort based on the mean skin temperature.The experimental results indicate that the difference of the mean skin temperatures between the comfort level and the discomfort level is significant.Using the evaluation model,the mean skin temperature at the thermal comfort level is 32.6 to 33.7 ℃,and the thermal comfort levels of 72% of the subjects are correctly evaluated.The accuracy of the evaluation model can be improved when the effects of sex of the subject on the mean skin temperature and the thermal comfort are considered.It can be concluded that the mean skin temperature can be used as an effective physiological indicator to evaluate human thermal comfort in a steady thermal environment.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401 and 2006CB400503
文摘Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects in the results.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775057)
文摘We analyzed the 1961-2006 mean surface air temperature data of 138 stations in China’s northwest arid and semi-arid areas(CNASA),to measure climate change in terms of annual mean air temperature changes.We used methods of linear regression analysis,multinomial fitting,Empirical Or-thogonal Function(EOF),Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),Mann-Kendall,Glide T-examination,wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis.The results show that(1) the warming rate of the annual mean air temperature in CNASA was 0.35oC/10a during the 1961-2006 study period.Some places in the west part of Xinjiang and east part of the Qinghai plateau,which is impacted by the terrain of leeward slope,exhibit smaller increasing trends.However,the majority of region has shown distinct warming in line with general global warming;(2) The standard deviation of the annual mean temperature distribution is non-uniform.The south Xinjiang and east Qinghai-south Gansu areas show relatively small standard deviations,but the inter-annual variation in annual mean air temperature in the greater part of the region is high;(3) Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Ningxia and Tarim Basin are the areas where the temperature changes are most sensitive to the environment.The degree of uniformity in annual mean air temperature increase is higher in the arid and semi-arid area.From the early 1970s,the trend in tempera-ture changed from a decrease to an increase,and there was a marked increase in mean temperature in 1986.After that mean temperature went through a period of rapid increase.The entire area’s 10 hottest years all occurred in or since the 1990s,and 90% of various sub-districts’ hottest years also occurred after 1990.The process of temperature change appears to have a roughly 5-year and a 10-year cycle;(4) An-nual mean air temperature variation has regional differences.In Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang and Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai areas,the temperature variation in their northern areas was very different from that in their southern areas;(5) Using the REOF method we divided the region into 4 sub-regions:the Northern region,the Plateau region,the Southern Xinjiang region and the Eastern region.The region’s annual mean air temperature transition has regional differences.The Plateau and Southern Xinjiang re-gions got warmer steadily without any obvious acceleration in the rate of warming.The Northern region’s warming started about 5-years earlier than that of the low latitude Eastern region.The ’Startup region’ of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,appears to undergo temperature changes 3 to 10 years earlier than the other regions,and exhibits inter-decadal variations 1 to 2 years ahead of the other regions.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40401054, No. 40121101), Hundred Talents Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, President Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX3-SW-339), National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2005CB422004)
文摘The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method, to understand the detailed features of its temporal and spatial variations. The results show that there was a high consistency of the monthly mean surface air temperature, with a secondarily different variation between the north and the south of the plateau. Warming trend has existed at all stations since the 1960s, while the warming rates were different in various zones. The source regions of big rivers had intense warming tendency. June, November and December were the top three fast-warming months since the 1960s; while April, July and September presented dramatic warming tendency during the last decade.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41574022)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX17_0150).
文摘To improve the applicability of the global pressure and temperature 2 wet(GPT2w)model in estimating the weighted mean temperature in China and adjacent areas,the error compensation technology based on the neural network was proposed,and a total of 374800 meteorological profiles measured from 2006 to 2015 of 100 radiosonde stations distributed in China and adjacent areas were used to establish an enhanced empirical model for estimating the weighted mean temperature in this region.The data from 2016 to 2018 of the remaining 92 stations in this region was used to test the performance of the proposed model.Results show that the proposed model is about 14.9%better than the GPT2w model and about 7.6%better than the Bevis model with measured surface temperature in accuracy.The performance of the proposed model is significantly improved compared with the GPT2w model not only at different height ranges,but also in different months throughout the year.Moreover,the accuracy of the weighted mean temperature estimation is greatly improved in the northwestern region of China where the radiosonde stations are very rarely distributed.The proposed model shows a great application potential in the nationwide real-time ground-based global navigation satellite system(GNSS)water vapor remote sensing.
文摘In terms of 34-year monthly mean temperature series in 1946-1979,the multi-level maPPing model of neural netWork BP type was applied to calculate the system's fractual dimension Do=2'8,leading tO a three-level model of this type with ixj=3x2,k=l,and the 1980 monthly mean temperture predichon on a long-t6rm basis were prepared by steadily modifying the weighting coefficient,making for the correlation coefficient of 97% with the measurements.Furthermore,the weighhng parameter was modified for each month of 1980 by means of observations,therefore constrcuhng monthly mean temperature forecasts from January to December of the year,reaching the correlation of 99.9% with the measurements.Likewise,the resulting 1981 monthly predictions on a long-range basis with 1946-1980 corresponding records yielded the correlahon of 98% and the month-tO month forecasts of 99.4%.
基金Sponsored by the Strategic Japanese-Chinese Cooperation Program (Grant No.2011DFA91210)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.HIT.NSRIF.2014075),the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.HIT.KISTP.201419)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (Grant No.E201316)
文摘Piloti is commonly used in tropical and subtropical climate zones to get high wind velocity and create shadowed areas in order to optimize the living environment of residential blocks,but there are few studies to reveal the influence of piloti on the radiant environment of residential blocks systematically. Taking the city of Guangzhou as an example,using 3-D Unsteady State Heat Balance Radiation Calculation Method,this paper shows that the mean radiant temperature( MRT) under piloti area increases with the increase of piloti ratio,and especially when piloti ratio is equal to 100%,the MRT increase trend becomes sharp. The MRT of exposed area decreases with the increase of piloti ratio,especially when piloti ratio reaches 100%,the decrease trend of MRT becomes sharp,which offers the reference for the study on piloti design in subtropical climate zones and further research on living environment by CFD simulation in residential blocks.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50775196)Doctor Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 20070216006)Special Sponsored Item of Hebei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 08B017)
文摘For building the analytical model of mean temperature in rail universal rolling, the cross-section of workpieces and the profile of horizontal roll and vertical roll are simplified rationally. The mean temperature of the web of rail, the top of rail and the base of rail are considered individually. The temperature rises for plastic deformation and friction incorresponding deformation zone, the temperature drop for contact is calculated on the base of variation principle and energy conservation law. Then the mean temperature is obtained. For verifying the theoretical model, the 18 kg/m light rail universal rolling experiments are accomplished in Yanshan University Rolling Laboratory, China and the surface temperature is measured. The surface temperature is not exact enough to express the true temperature and the mean temperature can show the status of the true temperature basically. So the mean temperature can be used to express the true temperature and this theoretical model and its results can be applied as an important reference to control the temperature of rail universal rolling and the heat treatment of the rolled rail.
文摘The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than 50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the 2Ttest, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements.
文摘Analysis of the global mean annual temperature anomalies based on land and marine data for the last 88 years (1901-1988) of this century has been carried out with a view to find any relationship with failures in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. On the climatological scale (i.e. 30 years) it has been noticed that there is an abnormal increase in the frequency of drought years during epochs of global warming and cooling, while it is considerably less when global temperatures are near normal. Results are unchanged even when the data are filtered out for ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) effect.It has also been noticed that during warm and cold epochs in global temperatures the amount of summer monsoon rainfall decreases as compared to the rainfall during a normal temperature epoch.
文摘The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Berlin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed.A total of 65 wavelets were received.The temperature has a high quantum certainty,and the change in the average annual temperature of Berlin was identified by a model that contains only two components for prediction.The basis of the forecast at 320 years makes it possible to look into the future until the year 2340.The forecast confirms the conclusions made in the CMIP5 report on global warming.With an increase in the number of components in the model up to five,the forecast is possible only until 2060.Therefore,the model with only two components is workable.The trend is characterized by a modified Mandelbrot equation showing exponential growth with a high growth rate of 1.47421.The wave equation also has an amplitude in the form of the Mandelbrot law(in mathematics,the Laplace law,in biology,the Zipf-Pearl law,in econometrics,the Pareto law),when the exponential growth activity is equal to 1.For 1701,the period of oscillation was 2×60.33333≈120.7 years.By 2021,the period decreased and became equal to 87.6 years.The trend is such that by 2340 the period of oscillation will decrease to 30.2 years.Such an increase in fluctuations indicates an imbalance in climate disturbances in temperature in Berlin.For Berlin,the last three years are characterized by sharp decreases in the average annual temperature from 11.8℃ to 10.5℃,i.e.by 12.4% in 2021.Therefore,the forecast is still unstable,as a further decrease in the average annual temperature of Berlin in the near future may change the picture of the forecast.
基金Funded by R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorology),No.GYHY(QX)2007-6-19Na-tional Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs,No.2006BAK13B05
文摘Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days（HTDs）and the mean daily maximum temperature（MDMT）during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied.The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃in the past 45 years.Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time,oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years.The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part,but less in the northern part of East China.The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang,Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China.The high temperature process（HTP） was more in the southwestern part,but less in northeastern part of East China.Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July,and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July.In the first 5 years of the 21st century,the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations,both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October,the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.
文摘Temperature integration where high day temperatures are compensated by lower night temperatures is one strategy that can be used to reduce energy consumption in greenhouses. Crop tolerance to temperature variation is a prerequisite for using such a strategy. Greenhouse experiments were conducted on tomatoes cvs, Capricia, Mecano and Cederico in order to investigate the effect of different day/night temperature regimes (24/17, 27/14 and 30/11℃) where the same mean temperature was maintained for the production and germination of pollen. In addition, fruit quality as determined by fruit firmness, dry matter content, soluble solids, titratable acids, and pH was examined at harvest and after seven and 14 days of storage. The 30/11℃ treatment significantly increased pollen production and germination compared to the 24/17℃ treatment, while the 27/14℃ treatment was generally in between the other two treatments. Fruits grown at the 27/14℃ treatment were significantly firmer, while fruits grown at 24/17℃ had higher dry matter content, soluble solids, and titratable acids compared to the other treatments. There were significant differences between cultivars with respect to firmness, dry matter, titratable acidity, and pH. The quality of the fruits changed during storage, but the storability of the tomatoes was not affected by preharvest temperature treatments. The overall conclusion was that the 27/14℃ treatment was superior to the other two temperature treatments with respect to the studied parameters.
文摘The zonal averages of temperature (the so-called normal temperatures) for numerous parallels of latitude published between 1852 and 1913 by Dove, Forbes, Ferrel, Spitaler, Batchelder, Arrhenius, von Bezold, Hopfner, von Hann, and Börnstein were used to quantify the global (spherical) and spheroidal mean near-surface temperature of the terrestrial atmosphere. Only the datasets of Dove and Forbes published in the 1850s provided global averages below 〈T〉=14°C, mainly due to the poor coverage of the Southern Hemisphere by observations during that time. The global averages derived from the distributions of normal temperatures published between 1877 and 1913 ranged from 〈T〉=14.0°C (Batchelder) to 〈T〉=15.1°C (Ferrel). The differences between the global and the spheroidal mean near-surface air temperature are marginal. To examine the uncertainty due to interannual variability and different years considered in the historic zonal mean temperature distributions, the historical normal temperatures were perturbed within ±2σ to obtain ensembles of 50 realizations for each dataset. Numerical integrations of the perturbed distributions indicate uncertainties in the global averages in the range of ±0.3°C to ±0.6°C and depended on the number of available normal temperatures. Compared to our results, the global mean temperature of 〈T〉=15.0°C published by von Hann in 1897 and von Bezold in 1901 and 1906 is notably too high, while 〈T〉=14.4°C published by von Hann in 1908 seems to be more adequate within the range of uncertainty. The HadCRUT4 record provided 〈T〉≌?13.7°C for 1851-1880 and 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910. The Berkeley record provided 〈T〉=13.6°C and 〈T〉≌?13.5°C for these periods, respectively. The NASA GISS record yielded 〈T〉=13.6°C for 1881-1910 as well. These results are notably lower than those based on the historic zonal means. For 1991-2018, the HadCRUT4, Berkeley, and NASA GISS records provided 〈T〉=14.4°C, 〈T〉=14.5°C, and 〈T〉=14.5°C, respectively. The comparison of the 1991-2018 globally averaged near-surface temperature with those derived from distributions of zonal temperature averages for numerous parallels of latitude suggests no change for the past 100 years.
基金supported by LASG Open Research Program and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No41005035/D0507)
文摘Studies on the reconstruction of global mean temperature series are reviewed by introducing three series, Had- CRUT3, NCDC, and GISS in details. Satellite data have been used since 1982 in NCDC and GISS series. NCDC series has the most complete spatial coverage among the three by using statistic interpolation technique. The weakened global warming in 2000-2009 as revealed in HadCRUT3 data is possibly caused by the lack of data coverage of this dataset over the Arctic. GISS and NCDC series showed much stronger warming trends during the last 10 years （-0.1 ℃ per 10 years）. Three series yielded almost the same warming trend for 1910-2009 （ 0.70-0.75 ℃ per 100 years）.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(4106400141071294)+1 种基金Guangxi Key Laboratory of Spatial Information and Geomatics(GuiKeJi 1103108-06)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(2012GXNSFAA053183)
文摘The estimation of Precipitable Water Vapor （PWV） derived from Global Positioning System （GPS） data at the IGS site WUHN is assessed by comparing with PWV obtained from radiosonde data （No.57494） in Wuhan. The applicability of Saastamoinen （SAAS）, Hopfield and Black models used for estimating Zenith Hydrostatic Delay （ZHD） and Zenith Wet Delay （ZWD） and different models is verified in the estimation of GPS-derived PWV for the applied area. The experimental results demonstrated that ： 1 ） the precision of PWV estimated from Black model used for calculating ZHD （ ZHDs ） is lower than that of SAAS （ ZHDsAAs ） model and Hopfield model （ZHDn） with the RMS of 4. 16 ram; 2） the RMS of PWV estimated from SAAS model used for calculating ZWD （SAAS） is 3.78 ram; 3 ） the well-known Bevis model gives similar accuracy compared with the site-specific models for Tm in terms of surface temperature （ Ts ） and surface pressure （Ps）, which can reach the accuracy inside 1 mm in the GPS-derived PWV estimates.
基金supported by the fund of Jinhua Science Technology Foundation of China(2009-2-02)
文摘As an important plant species with high protein contents,wild soybean(Glycine soja),has drawn much attention and appeared to be useful for the genetic improvement of soybean germplasms.Since temperature is one of the numerous environmental factors affecting the germination of most plants,an experimental study was carried out to determine the effect of temperature on germination of wild soybean(G.soja)seeds.Germination test was conducted by setting up thirty-six constant and alternating temperature regimes,ranging from 5 to 40 ℃(16 h night/8 h day).Responses in germination rate to these temperature regimes were then used to construct a quadratic response surface,giving estimated germination rates with confidence intervals at P ≤ 0.05.The results showed that germination capacity was significantly greater while exposed to constant temperatures of 25 ℃,and under the alternating temperature regime the optimum temperature occurred at the 20/25,25/25,25/30 ℃ regime(16 h/8 h)with the amplitude widened from 0 to 5 ℃.Together with regional monthly climate data,these results could be used to improve and promote the cultivation of wild soybean(G.soja),making it available to develop the location-specific optimum seeding time and to apply weed-control treatments.
文摘Taiwan is a hot and humid place;in addition,the sunlight is strong and sufficient,the naturally ventilated classrooms have large-area windows for better lighting and ventilation in Taiwan.However,subjects sitting close to the large-area windows will encounter the problem of radiant temperature asymmetry,which may cause local thermal discomfort during summer.Hence,this paper is to investigate the influence of horizontal radiant temperature asymmetry on the thermal sensation of subjects and the correlative variation of environmental parameters in a warm sitting area.The evaluation results show that the predicted mean vote(PMV)index can be used to predict the overall thermal sensation of a group of sedentary subjects in a warm environment with horizontal radiant temperature asymmetry;even subjects feel local discomfort on exposed parts of their body.The measured results of environmental parameters indicate that the averaged radiant temperature difference is about 4.6 ℃ from right shoulder to left shoulder;the temperature difference does not only cause correlative variations of other environmental parameters,but also result in thermal discomfort on the right cheeks and forearms of subjects in the warm sitting area.
