Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodo...Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland. It was found that the change in rainfall distribution in Gishari agricultural marshland would also decrease the rice productivity by 0.0018%, which is a sign that rainfall is a major factor of flooding in rice scheme. Rainfall distribution plays a crucial role in flooding analysis and can directly impact rice productivity. Oppositely, another causal factor was Land Use Land Cover (LULC), where the Multivariate Logistic Regression Model Analysis findings showed that the increase of one unit in Land Use Land Cover would increase rice productivity by 0.17% of the total rice productivity from the Gishari Agricultural Marshland. Based on findings from these techniques, the Gishari Agricultural Marshlands having steeped land with grassland is classified into five classes of flooding namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which include 430%, 361%, 292%, 223%, and 154%. Government of Rwanda and other implementing agencies and major key actors have to contribute on soil and water conservation strategies to reduce the runoff and soil erosion as major contributors of flooding.展开更多
Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelan...Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management,planning and development of groundwater resources.Ground...Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management,planning and development of groundwater resources.Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed,using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA),water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state(WetSpass)models.The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied,mainly using surface runoff.The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area,which yields a good agreement.The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system(GIS)environment.The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift,with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05,respectively.The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22%of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration,of which 16.54%is lost via surface runoff while 6.24%is recharged to the groundwater.The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation,together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology,geomorphology,lineament density and drainage density.The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning.The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated,based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index.Based on the potential indexes,the area then is demarcated into low,moderate,and high groundwater potential zones(GWPZ).The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data(static water level and springs)in the region.About 70.7%of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs.The weighting comparison shows that lithology,geomorphology,and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential.The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88%as high,39.38%moderate,and 14.73%as low groundwater potential zones.WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged,inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.展开更多
The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower develo...The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.展开更多
The electrification of powertrains leads to an increasing diversification of powertrain configurations. Each single configuration has its specific advantages which appear depending on the usage profile. To find the us...The electrification of powertrains leads to an increasing diversification of powertrain configurations. Each single configuration has its specific advantages which appear depending on the usage profile. To find the usage based optimal powertrain in consideration of a variety of evaluation criteria, the powertrains have to be optimized for the usage profile and characteristics have to be extracted from the usage profile. The carbon dioxide emissions of the optimized powertrains and usage based criteria are used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to determine the optimal powertrain for a specific usage profile. The description of characteristic maps forms the objective function of a minimization problem. The determined carbon dioxide emissions are one criterion in a multi-criteria decision process. All considered criteria are at least partly objective so that subjective ratings are eliminated as far as possible. The result is an optimized powertrain for a desired usage under the consideration of objective criteria that are extracted from the usage profile.展开更多
Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with decision problems in which multiple criteria need to be considered. The criteria might be measured on different scales so that comparability is difficult. One approach to he...Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with decision problems in which multiple criteria need to be considered. The criteria might be measured on different scales so that comparability is difficult. One approach to help the user to organize the problem and to reflect on his or her assessment on the decision is Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique (MACBETH). Here the user needs to provide qualitative judgment about differences of attractiveness regarding pairs of options. MACBETH was implemented in the M-MACBETH software using the additive aggregation model. The present article introduces the software tool “AniFair” which combines the MACBETH approach with the Choquet integral as an aggregation function, because the Choquet integral enables the modeling of interaction between criteria. With the Choquet integral, the user can define constraints on the relative importance of criteria (Shapley value) and the interaction between criteria. In contrast to M-MACBETH, with every instance of “AniFair” the user is made available at least two aggregation level. “AniFair” provides Graphical User Interfaces for the entering of information. The software tool is introduced via an example from the Welfare Quality Assessment protocol for pigs. With this, “AniFair” is applied to real data that were collected from thirteen farms in Northern Germany by an animal welfare expert. The “AniFair” results enabled a division of the farms into five groups of comparable performance concerning the welfare principle “Good feeding”. Hereby, the results differed in how much the interaction between criteria contributed to the Choquet integral values. The shares varied from 5% to 55%. With this, the vulnerability of aggregation results towards relative importance of and interaction between criteria was stressed, as changes in the ranking due to the definition of constraints could be shown. All results were exported to human readable txt or csv files for further analyses, and advice could be given to the farmers on how to improve their welfare situation.展开更多
Natural resources management is indispensable in ensuring environmental sustainability and reducing the risk associated with climate change and increasing demand for ecological goods and services. Natural resources pl...Natural resources management is indispensable in ensuring environmental sustainability and reducing the risk associated with climate change and increasing demand for ecological goods and services. Natural resources planners need to have at their disposal tools that can objectively help in prioritizing land use allocation. Traditional application of land use change model based on economic model, trend analysis, and or scenario analysis present some challenges of data availability and reliability necessary for implementation of the models. However, with the advent of information technology, GIS and remote sensing, biophysical data known for having influence on land use allocation can easily be accessed. The current study explores the application of GIS-Multi-criteria analysis in modeling future land use scenarios for resources planning and management using easy to construct biophysical parameters known for influencing future land use allocation. The decision problems in this study are to find the best spatial allocation of land to future agriculture and forest development, which are considered to present critical land use change in the study area. The afforestation scenarios are meant to offset the pressure on the native forest resources due to the increased demand for fuel and timber and also to contribute to the environmental protection and the agricultural land use scenarios are meant to increase productivity and ensure environmental protection. The land use scenarios did not consider “when” in the future the land use pattern may develop. The analyses of scenarios indicate that afforestation extent in the basin can be increased from 4.6% to 42.9% of the total basin area. However, the afforestation extent of 42.9% may be considered unrealistic, since in practice, it may not be possible to realize up to 42.9% afforestation, nevertheless, the spatial pattern of the afforestation may provide crucial insight into spatial afforestation policies and it future consequences. The agricultural land use can increase from 6.2% to 53.7% of the basin area. The agricultural land use expansion can be realised since the expansion of farm land is primarily the main option to achieve food production increase in the near future. The findings indicate potential use of the methodology in land use planning.展开更多
This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scen...This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.展开更多
Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are comp...Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are complex problems with multiple decision making and criteria. Hence, the use of multi-criteria decision analysis is very appropriate for solving these problems. Multi-criteria decision analysis can be divided into three main groups： value measurement models, goals, aspiration and reference level models and outranking models. The methods listed have been applied to water supply problems, especially in the evaluation of alternative water supply strategies. Each method has its advantages and limitations. A good alternative for concluding a better-suited method for water supply problems is to apply more than one method, either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods, or in parallel to obtain a broader decision basis for the decision maker. Previous studies of MCDA in water supply planning have usually considered water supply networks with only one water service delivery. Advanced water supply sources with multiple water service delivery systems have been neglected. This is an on-going study in which analytical hierarchical multi-criteria decision analysis methods are proposed for solving water supply problems and a framework for improved rainwater harvesting systems will be developed.展开更多
ObjectiveTo evaluate the benefit-risk of 3 commonly used Chinese medicine injections, Aidi Injection (ADI), Cinobufagin Injection (CINI) and Compound Kushen Injection (CKI), in the treatment of primary liver cancer (P...ObjectiveTo evaluate the benefit-risk of 3 commonly used Chinese medicine injections, Aidi Injection (ADI), Cinobufagin Injection (CINI) and Compound Kushen Injection (CKI), in the treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC), so as to provide a reference for clinical decision-making.MethodsRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) of ADI, CINI and CKI in the treatment of PLC published in the databases of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, China Science and Technology Journal Database, SinoMed, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were retrieved from January 2020 to October 2022. The data of benefit and risk indicators were combined to obtain the effect value. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was applied to build the decision tree. The benefit value, risk value and benefit risk value of the 3 injections in PLC treatment were calculated. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to calculate the 95% confidence interval and probability of differences among the 3 injections, so as to optimize the evaluation results.ResultsA total of 71 RCTs were included. The benefit values of ADI, CINI and CKI combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) were 42, 38 and 36, respectively. The risk values were 42, 25 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk values were 42, 31 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk differences of ADI vs. CINI, ADI vs. CKI, and CKI vs. CINI were 11 (−0.86, 17.75), 5 (−5.01, 11.09), and 6 (−1.87, 12.63), respectively. The probability that ADI superior to CINI, ADI superior to CKI, and CKI superior to CINI was 96.26%, 77.27%, and 92.62%, respectively.ConclusionBased on the results of MCDA model, CINI combined with TACE has the greatest risk in the treatment of the PLC. Considering the efficacy and safety, the possible priority of the 3 Chinese medicine injections combined with TACE in the treatment of PLC is ADI, CKI and CINI.展开更多
Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) provides a systematic approach to assess the total cost associated with owning, operating, and maintaining assets throughout their entire life. BIM empowers architects and designers to ...Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) provides a systematic approach to assess the total cost associated with owning, operating, and maintaining assets throughout their entire life. BIM empowers architects and designers to perform real-time evaluations to explore various design options. However, when integrated with LCCA, BIM provides a comprehensive economic perspective that helps stakeholders understand the long-term financial implications of design decisions. This study presents a methodology for developing a model that seamlessly integrates BIM and LCCA during the conceptual design stage of buildings. This integration allows for a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the design process, ensuring that the development aligns with the principles of low carbon emissions by employing modular construction, 3D concrete printing methods, and different building design alternatives. The model considers the initial construction costs in addition to all the long-term operational, maintenance, and salvage values. It combines various tools and data through different modules, including energy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) to execute a comprehensive assessment of the financial implications of a specific design option throughout the lifecycle of building projects. The development of the said model and its implementation involves the creation of a new plug-in for the BIM tool (i.e., Autodesk Revit) to enhance its functionalities and capabilities in forecasting the life-cycle costs of buildings in addition to generating associated cash flows, creating scenarios, and sensitivity analyses in an automatic manner. This model empowers designers to evaluate and justify their initial investments while designing and selecting potential construction methods for buildings, and enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions by assessing different design alternatives based on long-term financial considerations during the early stages of design.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on the global economy and health.While the pandemic continues to cause casualties in millions,many countries have gone under lockdown.During this period,people have to st...The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on the global economy and health.While the pandemic continues to cause casualties in millions,many countries have gone under lockdown.During this period,people have to stay within walls and become more addicted towards social networks.They express their emotions and sympathy via these online platforms.Thus,popular social media(Twitter and Facebook)have become rich sources of information for Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis on COVID-19-related issues.We have used Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis to anticipate the polarity of public opinion underlying different aspects from Twitter during lockdown and stepwise unlock phases.The goal of this study is to find the feelings of Indians about the lockdown initiative taken by the Government of India to stop the spread of Coronavirus.India-specific COVID-19 tweets have been annotated,for analysing the sentiment of common public.To classify the Twitter data set a deep learning model has been proposed which has achieved accuracies of 82.35%for Lockdown and 83.33%for Unlock data set.The suggested method outperforms many of the contemporary approaches(long shortterm memory,Bi-directional long short-term memory,Gated Recurrent Unit etc.).This study highlights the public sentiment on lockdown and stepwise unlocks,imposed by the Indian Government on various aspects during the Corona outburst.展开更多
This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCGDM) method based on the improved single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging (ISNHWA) operator and grey relational analysis (GRA) to overcome the lim...This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCGDM) method based on the improved single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging (ISNHWA) operator and grey relational analysis (GRA) to overcome the limitations of present methods based on aggregation operators. First, the limitations of several existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators (i.e. , the single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted algebraic averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted Einstein averaging, single-valued neutrosophic Frank weighted averaging, and single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging operators), which can produce some indeterminate terms in the aggregation process, are discussed. Second, an ISNHWA operator was developed to overcome the limitations of existing operators. Third, the properties of the proposed operator, including idempotency, boundedness, monotonicity, and commutativity, were analyzed. Application examples confirmed that the ISNHWA operator and the proposed MCGDM method are rational and effective. The proposed improved ISNHWA operator and MCGDM method can overcome the indeterminate results in some special cases in existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators and MCGDM methods.展开更多
As part of the drive to improve coffee and cocoa production in Ivory Coast, studies are carried out to identify soils that are favourable for these crops. It is therefore necessary to orientate soil investigations bas...As part of the drive to improve coffee and cocoa production in Ivory Coast, studies are carried out to identify soils that are favourable for these crops. It is therefore necessary to orientate soil investigations based on reliable criteria that best discriminate soil cover. With this in mind, this study is being carried out to help improve survey methods by mapping soil landscapes. It uses GIS and weighted multicriteria analysis. To do this, satellite images were processed and the geological map of the square degrees of M’Bahiakro and Daloa was reclassified. The results show that relief is the main factor in soil landscape differentiation, with respective weights of 0.58 and 0.67 for the forest and pre-forest zones. In contrast, the weight of geological formation in soil landscape differentiation remains low (0.05 for the forest zone and 0.07 for the pre-forest zone). The criteria used on the base of aggregation sum methods have made it possible to formulate soil landscape mapping prediction functions according to agro-ecological environments in the humid intertropical zone. This is essential for the orientation of soil survey work. Nevertheless, other comparative methods, such as the coding mapping method, could provide elements for discussion to validate the models.展开更多
As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions ...As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.展开更多
There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributab...There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributable to its complex hydrogeologic character. The present challenge has worsened due to the non-incorporation of integrated methods in groundwater exploration campaigns. To effectively combat the challenge of unacceptable failure rates in drilled water well development, there is a need for innovative scientific principles and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources to enhance sustainable and proper utilisation of these resources. Hence, it is the objective of this research to exploit the potential application of remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques and freely open datasets in mapping groundwater potential zones. Seven thematic maps have been produced based on factors that are deemed to influence and deemed to have significant control on the occurrence and movement of groundwater. These factors are geology, lineament density, slope, drainage density, rainfall, land-use/land cover, and soil class. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign normalised weights to the thematic maps based on the various relative contributions to groundwater occurrence and movement. These thematic maps were then processed in a GIS environment using the Weighted Overlay tool which implements the MCDA. The resulting Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZ) of the area gave rise to Five classes viz: Very good, Good, Moderate, Poor and Very Poor </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">representing 19%, 8%, 14%, 47% and 13% respectively. It is recommended that the GPZ map should be used as a reconnaissance tool for selecting prospective sites for detailed groundwater resource exploitation.展开更多
To address the challenges of current college student employment management,this study designed and implemented a machine learning-based decision support system for college student employment management.The system coll...To address the challenges of current college student employment management,this study designed and implemented a machine learning-based decision support system for college student employment management.The system collects and analyzes multidimensional data,uses machine learning algorithms for prediction and matching,provides personalized employment guidance for students,and provides decision support for universities and enterprises.The research results indicate that the system can effectively improve the efficiency and accuracy of employment guidance,promote school-enterprise cooperation,and achieve a win-win situation for all parties.展开更多
Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung canc...Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung cancer mortality and to investigate the factors that associate with the screening effect.Methods: A decision tree model with three scenarios(low-dose CT screening, chest X-ray screening, and no screening) was developed to compare screening results in a simulated Chinese urban cohort(100,000 smokers aged45-80 years). Data of participant characteristics were obtained from national registries and epidemiological surveys for estimating lung cancer prevalence. The selection of other tree variables such as sensitivities and specificities of low-dose CT and chest X-ray screening were based on literature research. Differences in lung cancer mortality(primary outcome), false diagnoses, and deaths due to false diagnosis were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the factors that associate with the screening results and to ascertain worst and optimal screening effects considering possible ranges of the variables.Results: Among the 100,000 subjects, there were 448,541, and 591 lung cancer deaths in the low-dose CT, chest X-ray, and no screening scenarios, respectively(17.2% reduction in low-dose CT screening over chest X-ray screening and 24.2% over no screening). The costs of the two screening scenarios were 9387 and 2497 false diagnoses and 7and 2 deaths due to false diagnosis among the 100,000 persons, respectively. The factors that most influenced death reduction with low-dose CT screening over no screening were lung cancer prevalence in the screened cohort, lowdose CT sensitivity, and proportion of early-stage cancers among low-dose CT detected lung cancers. Considering all possibilities, reduction in deaths(relative numbers) with low-dose CT screening in the worst and optimal cases were16(5.4%) and 288(40.2%) over no screening, respectively.Conclusions: In terms of mortality outcomes, our findings favor conducting low-dose CT screening in urban China.However, approaches to reducing false diagnoses and optimizing important screening conditions such as enrollment criteria for screening are highly needed.展开更多
The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs ty...The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs typically have some levels of fuzziness. To analyze a decision making unit （DMU） with fuzzy input/output data, previous studies provided the fuzzy DEA model and proposed an associated evaluating approach. Nonetheless, numerous deficiencies must still be improved, including the α- cut approaches, types of fuzzy numbers, and ranking techniques. Moreover, a fuzzy sample DMU still cannot be evaluated for the Fuzzy DEA model. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy DEA model based on sample decision making unit （FSDEA）. Five eval- uation approaches and the related algorithm and ranking methods are provided to test the fuzzy sample DMU of the FSDEA model. A numerical experiment is used to demonstrate and compare the results with those obtained using alternative approaches.展开更多
A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） proble...A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.展开更多
文摘Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland. It was found that the change in rainfall distribution in Gishari agricultural marshland would also decrease the rice productivity by 0.0018%, which is a sign that rainfall is a major factor of flooding in rice scheme. Rainfall distribution plays a crucial role in flooding analysis and can directly impact rice productivity. Oppositely, another causal factor was Land Use Land Cover (LULC), where the Multivariate Logistic Regression Model Analysis findings showed that the increase of one unit in Land Use Land Cover would increase rice productivity by 0.17% of the total rice productivity from the Gishari Agricultural Marshland. Based on findings from these techniques, the Gishari Agricultural Marshlands having steeped land with grassland is classified into five classes of flooding namely very low, low, moderate, high, and very high which include 430%, 361%, 292%, 223%, and 154%. Government of Rwanda and other implementing agencies and major key actors have to contribute on soil and water conservation strategies to reduce the runoff and soil erosion as major contributors of flooding.
文摘Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.
文摘Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management,planning and development of groundwater resources.Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed,using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA),water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state(WetSpass)models.The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied,mainly using surface runoff.The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area,which yields a good agreement.The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system(GIS)environment.The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift,with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05,respectively.The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22%of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration,of which 16.54%is lost via surface runoff while 6.24%is recharged to the groundwater.The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation,together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology,geomorphology,lineament density and drainage density.The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning.The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated,based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index.Based on the potential indexes,the area then is demarcated into low,moderate,and high groundwater potential zones(GWPZ).The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data(static water level and springs)in the region.About 70.7%of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs.The weighting comparison shows that lithology,geomorphology,and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential.The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88%as high,39.38%moderate,and 14.73%as low groundwater potential zones.WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged,inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.
文摘The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.
文摘The electrification of powertrains leads to an increasing diversification of powertrain configurations. Each single configuration has its specific advantages which appear depending on the usage profile. To find the usage based optimal powertrain in consideration of a variety of evaluation criteria, the powertrains have to be optimized for the usage profile and characteristics have to be extracted from the usage profile. The carbon dioxide emissions of the optimized powertrains and usage based criteria are used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to determine the optimal powertrain for a specific usage profile. The description of characteristic maps forms the objective function of a minimization problem. The determined carbon dioxide emissions are one criterion in a multi-criteria decision process. All considered criteria are at least partly objective so that subjective ratings are eliminated as far as possible. The result is an optimized powertrain for a desired usage under the consideration of objective criteria that are extracted from the usage profile.
文摘Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with decision problems in which multiple criteria need to be considered. The criteria might be measured on different scales so that comparability is difficult. One approach to help the user to organize the problem and to reflect on his or her assessment on the decision is Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique (MACBETH). Here the user needs to provide qualitative judgment about differences of attractiveness regarding pairs of options. MACBETH was implemented in the M-MACBETH software using the additive aggregation model. The present article introduces the software tool “AniFair” which combines the MACBETH approach with the Choquet integral as an aggregation function, because the Choquet integral enables the modeling of interaction between criteria. With the Choquet integral, the user can define constraints on the relative importance of criteria (Shapley value) and the interaction between criteria. In contrast to M-MACBETH, with every instance of “AniFair” the user is made available at least two aggregation level. “AniFair” provides Graphical User Interfaces for the entering of information. The software tool is introduced via an example from the Welfare Quality Assessment protocol for pigs. With this, “AniFair” is applied to real data that were collected from thirteen farms in Northern Germany by an animal welfare expert. The “AniFair” results enabled a division of the farms into five groups of comparable performance concerning the welfare principle “Good feeding”. Hereby, the results differed in how much the interaction between criteria contributed to the Choquet integral values. The shares varied from 5% to 55%. With this, the vulnerability of aggregation results towards relative importance of and interaction between criteria was stressed, as changes in the ranking due to the definition of constraints could be shown. All results were exported to human readable txt or csv files for further analyses, and advice could be given to the farmers on how to improve their welfare situation.
文摘Natural resources management is indispensable in ensuring environmental sustainability and reducing the risk associated with climate change and increasing demand for ecological goods and services. Natural resources planners need to have at their disposal tools that can objectively help in prioritizing land use allocation. Traditional application of land use change model based on economic model, trend analysis, and or scenario analysis present some challenges of data availability and reliability necessary for implementation of the models. However, with the advent of information technology, GIS and remote sensing, biophysical data known for having influence on land use allocation can easily be accessed. The current study explores the application of GIS-Multi-criteria analysis in modeling future land use scenarios for resources planning and management using easy to construct biophysical parameters known for influencing future land use allocation. The decision problems in this study are to find the best spatial allocation of land to future agriculture and forest development, which are considered to present critical land use change in the study area. The afforestation scenarios are meant to offset the pressure on the native forest resources due to the increased demand for fuel and timber and also to contribute to the environmental protection and the agricultural land use scenarios are meant to increase productivity and ensure environmental protection. The land use scenarios did not consider “when” in the future the land use pattern may develop. The analyses of scenarios indicate that afforestation extent in the basin can be increased from 4.6% to 42.9% of the total basin area. However, the afforestation extent of 42.9% may be considered unrealistic, since in practice, it may not be possible to realize up to 42.9% afforestation, nevertheless, the spatial pattern of the afforestation may provide crucial insight into spatial afforestation policies and it future consequences. The agricultural land use can increase from 6.2% to 53.7% of the basin area. The agricultural land use expansion can be realised since the expansion of farm land is primarily the main option to achieve food production increase in the near future. The findings indicate potential use of the methodology in land use planning.
文摘This paper explores approaches concerning complex forest planning challenges, such as restoration after large-scale disturbances and under climate change. It introduces a new framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning with quantitative multi-criteria decision analysis. This framework allows stakeholders without background in forestry to express their preferences as a set of scenarios that are further assessed for specific forest management goals and activities using multi-criteria models. The assessment of the modelled scenarios created a common understanding for the stakeholders and experts to compare trade-offs between several management options and needed policy choices. The framework was applied in the case study of forest restoration following insect disturbance in British Columbia, Canada. The framework enabled structured stakeholder groups’ interactions such as industry, business associations, local and regional governments, and non-governmental organizations to identify potential restoration options. Different community futures were envisioned by two scenarios: one resembling current conditions and standard practices, while another promoting diversification of the forestry sector. The results indicated that each of the scenarios leads to different consequences for the community measured by levels of economic benefits, total harvest volumes and harvest flows over time. The results also show that the developed framework linking scenarios and multi-criteria decision analyses proved crucial to broaden the discussion on relevant species mixes and management practices, and their implications for the community and policy development.
文摘Several conflicting objectives are considered in decision-making. MCDA （multi-criteria decision analysis） methods are developed to facilitate better decision making by decision-makers. Water supply problems are complex problems with multiple decision making and criteria. Hence, the use of multi-criteria decision analysis is very appropriate for solving these problems. Multi-criteria decision analysis can be divided into three main groups： value measurement models, goals, aspiration and reference level models and outranking models. The methods listed have been applied to water supply problems, especially in the evaluation of alternative water supply strategies. Each method has its advantages and limitations. A good alternative for concluding a better-suited method for water supply problems is to apply more than one method, either in combination to make use of the strengths of both methods, or in parallel to obtain a broader decision basis for the decision maker. Previous studies of MCDA in water supply planning have usually considered water supply networks with only one water service delivery. Advanced water supply sources with multiple water service delivery systems have been neglected. This is an on-going study in which analytical hierarchical multi-criteria decision analysis methods are proposed for solving water supply problems and a framework for improved rainwater harvesting systems will be developed.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82174529)Scientific Research Innovation Project of Henan University of Chinese Medicine(No.2022KYCX037)。
文摘ObjectiveTo evaluate the benefit-risk of 3 commonly used Chinese medicine injections, Aidi Injection (ADI), Cinobufagin Injection (CINI) and Compound Kushen Injection (CKI), in the treatment of primary liver cancer (PLC), so as to provide a reference for clinical decision-making.MethodsRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) of ADI, CINI and CKI in the treatment of PLC published in the databases of China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, China Science and Technology Journal Database, SinoMed, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were retrieved from January 2020 to October 2022. The data of benefit and risk indicators were combined to obtain the effect value. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model was applied to build the decision tree. The benefit value, risk value and benefit risk value of the 3 injections in PLC treatment were calculated. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to calculate the 95% confidence interval and probability of differences among the 3 injections, so as to optimize the evaluation results.ResultsA total of 71 RCTs were included. The benefit values of ADI, CINI and CKI combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) were 42, 38 and 36, respectively. The risk values were 42, 25 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk values were 42, 31 and 37, respectively. The benefit risk differences of ADI vs. CINI, ADI vs. CKI, and CKI vs. CINI were 11 (−0.86, 17.75), 5 (−5.01, 11.09), and 6 (−1.87, 12.63), respectively. The probability that ADI superior to CINI, ADI superior to CKI, and CKI superior to CINI was 96.26%, 77.27%, and 92.62%, respectively.ConclusionBased on the results of MCDA model, CINI combined with TACE has the greatest risk in the treatment of the PLC. Considering the efficacy and safety, the possible priority of the 3 Chinese medicine injections combined with TACE in the treatment of PLC is ADI, CKI and CINI.
文摘Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) provides a systematic approach to assess the total cost associated with owning, operating, and maintaining assets throughout their entire life. BIM empowers architects and designers to perform real-time evaluations to explore various design options. However, when integrated with LCCA, BIM provides a comprehensive economic perspective that helps stakeholders understand the long-term financial implications of design decisions. This study presents a methodology for developing a model that seamlessly integrates BIM and LCCA during the conceptual design stage of buildings. This integration allows for a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the design process, ensuring that the development aligns with the principles of low carbon emissions by employing modular construction, 3D concrete printing methods, and different building design alternatives. The model considers the initial construction costs in addition to all the long-term operational, maintenance, and salvage values. It combines various tools and data through different modules, including energy analysis, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) to execute a comprehensive assessment of the financial implications of a specific design option throughout the lifecycle of building projects. The development of the said model and its implementation involves the creation of a new plug-in for the BIM tool (i.e., Autodesk Revit) to enhance its functionalities and capabilities in forecasting the life-cycle costs of buildings in addition to generating associated cash flows, creating scenarios, and sensitivity analyses in an automatic manner. This model empowers designers to evaluate and justify their initial investments while designing and selecting potential construction methods for buildings, and enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions by assessing different design alternatives based on long-term financial considerations during the early stages of design.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on the global economy and health.While the pandemic continues to cause casualties in millions,many countries have gone under lockdown.During this period,people have to stay within walls and become more addicted towards social networks.They express their emotions and sympathy via these online platforms.Thus,popular social media(Twitter and Facebook)have become rich sources of information for Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis on COVID-19-related issues.We have used Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis to anticipate the polarity of public opinion underlying different aspects from Twitter during lockdown and stepwise unlock phases.The goal of this study is to find the feelings of Indians about the lockdown initiative taken by the Government of India to stop the spread of Coronavirus.India-specific COVID-19 tweets have been annotated,for analysing the sentiment of common public.To classify the Twitter data set a deep learning model has been proposed which has achieved accuracies of 82.35%for Lockdown and 83.33%for Unlock data set.The suggested method outperforms many of the contemporary approaches(long shortterm memory,Bi-directional long short-term memory,Gated Recurrent Unit etc.).This study highlights the public sentiment on lockdown and stepwise unlocks,imposed by the Indian Government on various aspects during the Corona outburst.
文摘This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCGDM) method based on the improved single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging (ISNHWA) operator and grey relational analysis (GRA) to overcome the limitations of present methods based on aggregation operators. First, the limitations of several existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators (i.e. , the single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted algebraic averaging, single-valued neutrosophic weighted Einstein averaging, single-valued neutrosophic Frank weighted averaging, and single-valued neutrosophic Hamacher weighted averaging operators), which can produce some indeterminate terms in the aggregation process, are discussed. Second, an ISNHWA operator was developed to overcome the limitations of existing operators. Third, the properties of the proposed operator, including idempotency, boundedness, monotonicity, and commutativity, were analyzed. Application examples confirmed that the ISNHWA operator and the proposed MCGDM method are rational and effective. The proposed improved ISNHWA operator and MCGDM method can overcome the indeterminate results in some special cases in existing single-valued neutrosophic weighted averaging aggregation operators and MCGDM methods.
文摘As part of the drive to improve coffee and cocoa production in Ivory Coast, studies are carried out to identify soils that are favourable for these crops. It is therefore necessary to orientate soil investigations based on reliable criteria that best discriminate soil cover. With this in mind, this study is being carried out to help improve survey methods by mapping soil landscapes. It uses GIS and weighted multicriteria analysis. To do this, satellite images were processed and the geological map of the square degrees of M’Bahiakro and Daloa was reclassified. The results show that relief is the main factor in soil landscape differentiation, with respective weights of 0.58 and 0.67 for the forest and pre-forest zones. In contrast, the weight of geological formation in soil landscape differentiation remains low (0.05 for the forest zone and 0.07 for the pre-forest zone). The criteria used on the base of aggregation sum methods have made it possible to formulate soil landscape mapping prediction functions according to agro-ecological environments in the humid intertropical zone. This is essential for the orientation of soil survey work. Nevertheless, other comparative methods, such as the coding mapping method, could provide elements for discussion to validate the models.
基金co-supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61833016)the Shaanxi Out-standing Youth Science Foundation(No.2020JC-34)+1 种基金the Shaanxi Science and Technology Innovation Team(No.2022TD-24)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.LH2021F038).
文摘As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.
文摘There exists a growing demand for potable water resources to fill the abysmally insufficient water needs for domestic and industrial especially in the Basement Complex terrains of Nigeria. This situation is attributable to its complex hydrogeologic character. The present challenge has worsened due to the non-incorporation of integrated methods in groundwater exploration campaigns. To effectively combat the challenge of unacceptable failure rates in drilled water well development, there is a need for innovative scientific principles and quantitative assessment of groundwater resources to enhance sustainable and proper utilisation of these resources. Hence, it is the objective of this research to exploit the potential application of remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques and freely open datasets in mapping groundwater potential zones. Seven thematic maps have been produced based on factors that are deemed to influence and deemed to have significant control on the occurrence and movement of groundwater. These factors are geology, lineament density, slope, drainage density, rainfall, land-use/land cover, and soil class. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign normalised weights to the thematic maps based on the various relative contributions to groundwater occurrence and movement. These thematic maps were then processed in a GIS environment using the Weighted Overlay tool which implements the MCDA. The resulting Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZ) of the area gave rise to Five classes viz: Very good, Good, Moderate, Poor and Very Poor </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">representing 19%, 8%, 14%, 47% and 13% respectively. It is recommended that the GPZ map should be used as a reconnaissance tool for selecting prospective sites for detailed groundwater resource exploitation.
文摘To address the challenges of current college student employment management,this study designed and implemented a machine learning-based decision support system for college student employment management.The system collects and analyzes multidimensional data,uses machine learning algorithms for prediction and matching,provides personalized employment guidance for students,and provides decision support for universities and enterprises.The research results indicate that the system can effectively improve the efficiency and accuracy of employment guidance,promote school-enterprise cooperation,and achieve a win-win situation for all parties.
基金supported by Peking Union Medical College Youth Fund and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2017310049)
文摘Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung cancer mortality and to investigate the factors that associate with the screening effect.Methods: A decision tree model with three scenarios(low-dose CT screening, chest X-ray screening, and no screening) was developed to compare screening results in a simulated Chinese urban cohort(100,000 smokers aged45-80 years). Data of participant characteristics were obtained from national registries and epidemiological surveys for estimating lung cancer prevalence. The selection of other tree variables such as sensitivities and specificities of low-dose CT and chest X-ray screening were based on literature research. Differences in lung cancer mortality(primary outcome), false diagnoses, and deaths due to false diagnosis were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the factors that associate with the screening results and to ascertain worst and optimal screening effects considering possible ranges of the variables.Results: Among the 100,000 subjects, there were 448,541, and 591 lung cancer deaths in the low-dose CT, chest X-ray, and no screening scenarios, respectively(17.2% reduction in low-dose CT screening over chest X-ray screening and 24.2% over no screening). The costs of the two screening scenarios were 9387 and 2497 false diagnoses and 7and 2 deaths due to false diagnosis among the 100,000 persons, respectively. The factors that most influenced death reduction with low-dose CT screening over no screening were lung cancer prevalence in the screened cohort, lowdose CT sensitivity, and proportion of early-stage cancers among low-dose CT detected lung cancers. Considering all possibilities, reduction in deaths(relative numbers) with low-dose CT screening in the worst and optimal cases were16(5.4%) and 288(40.2%) over no screening, respectively.Conclusions: In terms of mortality outcomes, our findings favor conducting low-dose CT screening in urban China.However, approaches to reducing false diagnoses and optimizing important screening conditions such as enrollment criteria for screening are highly needed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70961005)211 Project for Postgraduate Student Program of Inner Mongolia University+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia (2010Zd342011MS1002)
文摘The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs typically have some levels of fuzziness. To analyze a decision making unit （DMU） with fuzzy input/output data, previous studies provided the fuzzy DEA model and proposed an associated evaluating approach. Nonetheless, numerous deficiencies must still be improved, including the α- cut approaches, types of fuzzy numbers, and ranking techniques. Moreover, a fuzzy sample DMU still cannot be evaluated for the Fuzzy DEA model. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy DEA model based on sample decision making unit （FSDEA）. Five eval- uation approaches and the related algorithm and ranking methods are provided to test the fuzzy sample DMU of the FSDEA model. A numerical experiment is used to demonstrate and compare the results with those obtained using alternative approaches.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51375389)
文摘A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.
