Oceanic general circulation models have become an important tool for the study of marine status and change. This paper reports a numerical simulation carried out using LICOM2.0 and the forcing field from CORE. When co...Oceanic general circulation models have become an important tool for the study of marine status and change. This paper reports a numerical simulation carried out using LICOM2.0 and the forcing field from CORE. When compared with SODA reanalysis data and ERSST.v3 b data, the patterns and variability of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM) are reproduced very well in this experiment. This indicates that, when the tropical central–western Indian Ocean and central–eastern Pacific are abnormally warmer/colder, the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific are correspondingly colder/warmer. This further confirms that the tropical PIOAM is an important mode that is not only significant in the SST anomaly field, but also more obviously in the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly field. The surface associated mode index(SAMI) and the thermocline(i.e., subsurface) associated mode index(TAMI) calculated using the model output data are both consistent with the values of these indices derived from observation and reanalysis data. However, the model SAMI and TAMI are more closely and synchronously related to each other.展开更多
Using a 23-year database consisting of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, the authors studied southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). C...Using a 23-year database consisting of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, the authors studied southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). Correlation analysis of the spatial variability regarding monthly sea level pressure, surface air tempera- ture, and sea surface temperature anomalies with IOD index suggests that IOD signal exists in southern high latitudes. The correlation fields exhibit a wavenumber-3 pattern around the circumpolar Southern Ocean. Lead-lag correlation analysis on the strongest correlation areas with IOD index shows that IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean responses to the southern high latitude climate almost instantaneously. It is proposed in the present paper that this connection is realized through atmospheric propagation rather than through oceanic one.展开更多
Using 20 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the simulation of the Southwest Indian Ocean （SWIO） thermocline dome is evaluated and its role in shaping the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB...Using 20 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the simulation of the Southwest Indian Ocean （SWIO） thermocline dome is evaluated and its role in shaping the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB） mode following E1 Nifio investigated. In most of the CMIP5 models, due to an easterly wind bias along the equator, the simulated SWIO thermocline is too deep, which could further influence the amplitude of the interannual IOB mode. A model with a shallow （deep） thermocline dome tends to simulate a strong （weak） IOB mode, including key attributes such as the SWIO SST warming, antisymmetric pattern during boreal spring, and second North Indian Ocean warming during boreal summer. Under global warming, the thermocline dome deepens with the easterly wind trend along the equator in most of the models. However, the IOB amplitude does not follow such a change of the SWIO thermocline among the models; rather, it follows future changes in both ENSO forcing and local convection feedback, suggesting a decreasing effect of the deepening SWIO thermocline dome on the change in the IOB mode in the future.展开更多
Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilit...Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the equatorial Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly(SOTA) are captured.The first and second modes of the equatorial Pacific SOTA in the interannual and interdecadal variations are found respectively and the effect of the second mode on the ENSO cycle is discussed.Results show that the first mode of SOTA's interannual and interdecadal variabilities exhibit a dipole pattern,indicating that the warm and cold temperature anomalies appear simultaneously in the equatorial subsurface Pacific.The second mode shows coherent large-scale temperature anomalies in the equatorial subsurface Pacific,which is a dominant mode in the evolution of ENSO cycle.The temporal series of the second mode has a significant lead correlation with the Ni?o-3.4 index,which can make a precursory prediction signal for ENSO.The function of this prediction factor in SOTA is verified by composite and case analyses.展开更多
In this study,the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM)on Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)activity were investigated using reanalysis data.In the positive(negative)phase of the PIOAM,the ...In this study,the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM)on Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)activity were investigated using reanalysis data.In the positive(negative)phase of the PIOAM,the amplitudes of MJO zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation are significantly weakened(enhanced)over the Indian Ocean,while they are enhanced(weakened)over the central and eastern Pacific.The eastward propagation of the MJO can extend to the central Pacific in the positive phase of the PIOAM,whereas it is mainly confined to west of 160°E in the negative phase.The PIOAM impacts MJO activity by modifying the atmospheric circulation and moisture budget.Anomalous ascending(descending)motion and positive(negative)moisture anomalies occur over the western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific(Maritime Continent and western Pacific)during the positive phase of the PIOAM.The anomalous circulation is almost the opposite in the negative phases of the PIOAM.This anomalous circulation and moisture can modulate the activity of the MJO.The stronger moistening over the Indian Ocean induced by zonal and vertical moisture advection leads to the stronger MJO activity over the Indian Ocean in the negative phase of the PIOAM.During the positive phase of the PIOAM,the MJO propagates farther east over the central Pacific owing to the stronger moistening there,which is mainly attributable to the meridional and vertical moisture advection,especially low-frequency background state moisture advection by the MJO’s meridional and vertical velocities.展开更多
The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin （IOB）/dipole （IOD） mode of SST anomalies （SSTAs） and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the pe...The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin （IOB）/dipole （IOD） mode of SST anomalies （SSTAs） and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the period 1958-2008. Both partial correlation analysis and composite analysis show that both the positive （negative） phase of the lOB and IOD （independent of each other） in the tropical Indian Ocean are possible contributors to the E1 Nino （La Nifia） decay and phase transition to La Nifia （El Nifio） about one year later. However, the influence on ENSO transition induced by the IOB is stronger than that by the IOD. The SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the coming year originate from subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean, induced by the IOB and IOD through eastward and upward propagation to meet the surface. During this process, however the contribution of the oceanic channel process between the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans is totally different for the IOB and IOD. For the IOD, the influence of the Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies could propagate to the eastern Pacific to induce the ENSO transition. For the IOB, the impact of the oceanic channel stays and disappears in the western Pacific without propagation to the eastern Pacific.展开更多
The annual subduction rate in the South Indian Ocean was calculated by analyzing Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） outputs in the period of 1950-2008. The subduction rate census for potential density classes sho...The annual subduction rate in the South Indian Ocean was calculated by analyzing Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） outputs in the period of 1950-2008. The subduction rate census for potential density classes showed a peak corresponding to Indian Ocean subtropical mode water （IOSTMW） in the southwestern part of the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre. The deeper mixed layer depth, the sharper mixed-layer fronts and the associated relatively faster circulation in the present climatology resulted in a larger lateral induction, which primarily dominants the IOSTMW subduction rate, while with only minor contribution from vertical pumping. Without loss of generality, through careful analysis of the water characteristics in the layer of minimum vertical temperature gradient （LMVTG）, the authors suggest that the IOSTMW was identified as a thermostad, with a lateral minimum of low potential vorticity （PV, less than 200× 10^-12 m^-1·s^-1） and a low dT/dz （less than 1.5℃/（100 m））. The IOSTMW within the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre distributed in the region approximately from 25° to 50° E and from 30° to 39°S. Additionally, the average characteristics （temperature, salinity, potential density） of the mode water were estimated about （16.38 ± 0.29）℃, （35.46 ±0.04）, （26.02 ±0.04） ae over the past 60 years.展开更多
Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IODM） and the strength of South China Sea ...Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IODM） and the strength of South China Sea （SCS） Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. （1） There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode （USBM） and Indian Ocean dipole mode （IODM）, respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing deeadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. （2） When positive （negative） IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak （strong）. The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. （3） When the SCS summer monsoon is strong （weak）, the IODM will be in its positive （negative） phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.展开更多
Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in th...Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.展开更多
A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integ...A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.展开更多
The relationships among an ocean wave spectrum,a fully polarimetric coherence matrix,and radar parameters are deduced with an electromagnetic wave theory.Furthermore,the relationship between the polarimetric entropy a...The relationships among an ocean wave spectrum,a fully polarimetric coherence matrix,and radar parameters are deduced with an electromagnetic wave theory.Furthermore,the relationship between the polarimetric entropy and ocean wave spectrum is established based on the definition of entropy and a twoscale scattering model of the ocean surface.It is the first time that the polarimetric entropy of the ocean surface is presented in theory.Meanwhile,the relationships among the fully polarimetric entropy and the parameters related to radar and ocean are discussed.The study is the basis of further monitoring targets on the ocean surface and deriving oceanic information with the entropy from the ocean surface.The contrast enhancement between human-made targets and the ocean surface with the entropy is presented with quad-pol airborne synthetic aperture radar（AIRSAR） data.展开更多
The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International ...The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set （ICOADS） monthly data for the period 1979-2010. Statistical analy- ses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD. The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September-November is associated with an IOD event, while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event. In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO, NIO SST warms twice, rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year. Both short- wave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation. The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness. A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming. The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind. In the first NIO warming, the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux. In the second NIO warming, both factors are important.展开更多
There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemi- sphere Annular Mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemis...There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemi- sphere Annular Mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer （December-January-February; DJF） SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn （March-April-May; MAM）. The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows： The SAM is positively （negatively） correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle （high） latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole （SOD）. The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Nifio3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nifio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling （warming） over the Nifio3.4 area followed by the positive （negative） DJF SAM.展开更多
During El Niño events, the warm anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are seen to occur in conjunction with prominent warm anomalies in the North Pacific SSTs off the west coast of North America as well a...During El Niño events, the warm anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are seen to occur in conjunction with prominent warm anomalies in the North Pacific SSTs off the west coast of North America as well as with cold anomalies in the central North Pacific. This kind of North Pacific response to ENSO is examined in observational data and IPSL air-sea coupled model simulations. Analyses based on observational data and the model output data both support the hypothesis of an “atmospheric bridge concept”, i.e., the atmospheric response to ENSO, in turn, forces the extra-tropical SST anomalies associated with the El Ninno event, thereby serving as a bridge between the tropical and extra-tropical Pacific. Regarding the mechanism responsible for this, the ocean dynamical response to the atmospheric forcing is suggested to be active, while the contribution of latent heat flux is also significant. The role of solar radiation, longwave radiation, and sensible heat flux are of minor importance however, as indicated in the model. Further analysis shows that the North Pacific mode, which is linearly independent of ENSO, resembles the El Niño-type SST mode in the northern Pacific, i.e. both take the pattern of a zonally-oriented dipole in the subtropical Pacific, though differ slightly in the location of the anomaly center. The coupling between the North Pacific mode and the atmosphere is found to be mainly via air-sea heat flux exchange in the model. Both solar radiation and longwave radiation play important roles, while the contribution of latent heat flux is nearly negligible.展开更多
A new climatology of cyclones in the Southern Ocean is generated by applying an automated cyclone detection and tracking algorithm （developed by Hodges at the Reading University） for an improved and relatively high-...A new climatology of cyclones in the Southern Ocean is generated by applying an automated cyclone detection and tracking algorithm （developed by Hodges at the Reading University） for an improved and relatively high- resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979-2013. A validation shows that identified cyclone tracks are in good agreement with a available analyzed cyclone product. The climatological characteristics of the Southern Ocean cyclones are then analyzed, including track, number, density, intensity, deepening rate and explosive events. An analysis shows that the number of cyclones in the Southern Ocean has increased for 1979-2013, but only statistically significant in summer. Coincident with the circumpolar trough, a single high-density band of cyclones is observed in 55^-67~S, and cyclone density has generally increased in north of this band for 1979-2013, except summer. The intensity of up to 70% cyclones in the Southern Ocean is less than 980 hPa, and only a few cyclones with pressure less than 920 hPa are detected for 1979-2013. Further analysis shows that a high frequency of explosive cyclones is located in the band of 45^-55~S, and the Atlantic Ocean sector has much higher frequent occurrence of the explosive cyclones than that in the Pacific Ocean sector. Additionally, the relationship between cyclone activities in the Southern Ocean and the Southern Annular Mode is discussed.展开更多
Mechanisms for the spatio-temporal development of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode （TPMM） are investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. In both observations and the model, this meridi...Mechanisms for the spatio-temporal development of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode （TPMM） are investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. In both observations and the model, this meridional mode displays decadal variations and is most pronounced in spring and early summer. The model simulation suggests that once SST anomalies in the subtropical northeastern Pacific are initiated, say by northeasterly trade wind variability, perturbations evolve into a merdional dipole in 2 -3 months. A wind-evaporative-SST feedback causes a southwestward propagation of initial subtropical SST anomalies, while anomalous equatorial upwelling helps form the southern lobe of the meridional dipole. The TPMM development is a fast process （a few months） and depends on the seasonal cycle.展开更多
The role of halted ＂baroclinic modes＂ in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to ＂baroclinic modes＂ occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific...The role of halted ＂baroclinic modes＂ in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to ＂baroclinic modes＂ occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second ＂baroclinic mode＂ is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first ＂baroclinic mode＂ propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second ＂baroclinic mode＂ in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Nifio： the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second ＂baroclinic mode＂ in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first ＂baroclinic mode＂ propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Nino several months ahead.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB956203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41490642 and 41575062)the Open Fund of LASG
文摘Oceanic general circulation models have become an important tool for the study of marine status and change. This paper reports a numerical simulation carried out using LICOM2.0 and the forcing field from CORE. When compared with SODA reanalysis data and ERSST.v3 b data, the patterns and variability of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM) are reproduced very well in this experiment. This indicates that, when the tropical central–western Indian Ocean and central–eastern Pacific are abnormally warmer/colder, the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific are correspondingly colder/warmer. This further confirms that the tropical PIOAM is an important mode that is not only significant in the SST anomaly field, but also more obviously in the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly field. The surface associated mode index(SAMI) and the thermocline(i.e., subsurface) associated mode index(TAMI) calculated using the model output data are both consistent with the values of these indices derived from observation and reanalysis data. However, the model SAMI and TAMI are more closely and synchronously related to each other.
文摘Using a 23-year database consisting of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, the authors studied southern high latitude climate anomalies associated with IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole). Correlation analysis of the spatial variability regarding monthly sea level pressure, surface air tempera- ture, and sea surface temperature anomalies with IOD index suggests that IOD signal exists in southern high latitudes. The correlation fields exhibit a wavenumber-3 pattern around the circumpolar Southern Ocean. Lead-lag correlation analysis on the strongest correlation areas with IOD index shows that IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean responses to the southern high latitude climate almost instantaneously. It is proposed in the present paper that this connection is realized through atmospheric propagation rather than through oceanic one.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2012CB955600 and 2015CB954300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41106010 and 41476003)+1 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. LTO1206 and LTOZZ1202)a China Meteorological Public Welfare Science Research Project (Grant No. GYHY201306027)
文摘Using 20 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the simulation of the Southwest Indian Ocean （SWIO） thermocline dome is evaluated and its role in shaping the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB） mode following E1 Nifio investigated. In most of the CMIP5 models, due to an easterly wind bias along the equator, the simulated SWIO thermocline is too deep, which could further influence the amplitude of the interannual IOB mode. A model with a shallow （deep） thermocline dome tends to simulate a strong （weak） IOB mode, including key attributes such as the SWIO SST warming, antisymmetric pattern during boreal spring, and second North Indian Ocean warming during boreal summer. Under global warming, the thermocline dome deepens with the easterly wind trend along the equator in most of the models. However, the IOB amplitude does not follow such a change of the SWIO thermocline among the models; rather, it follows future changes in both ENSO forcing and local convection feedback, suggesting a decreasing effect of the deepening SWIO thermocline dome on the change in the IOB mode in the future.
基金National Key Basic Research Program of China(2013CB956203)
文摘Based on the simple ocean data assimilation(SODA) reanalysis dataset from the University of Maryland and the method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF),the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the equatorial Pacific subsurface oceanic temperature anomaly(SOTA) are captured.The first and second modes of the equatorial Pacific SOTA in the interannual and interdecadal variations are found respectively and the effect of the second mode on the ENSO cycle is discussed.Results show that the first mode of SOTA's interannual and interdecadal variabilities exhibit a dipole pattern,indicating that the warm and cold temperature anomalies appear simultaneously in the equatorial subsurface Pacific.The second mode shows coherent large-scale temperature anomalies in the equatorial subsurface Pacific,which is a dominant mode in the evolution of ENSO cycle.The temporal series of the second mode has a significant lead correlation with the Ni?o-3.4 index,which can make a precursory prediction signal for ENSO.The function of this prediction factor in SOTA is verified by composite and case analyses.
基金We thank the anonymous reviewers for their careful comments and suggestions.This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1505901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41605051,41520104008,41475070 and 41575062).
文摘In this study,the impacts of the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean associated mode(PIOAM)on Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO)activity were investigated using reanalysis data.In the positive(negative)phase of the PIOAM,the amplitudes of MJO zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation are significantly weakened(enhanced)over the Indian Ocean,while they are enhanced(weakened)over the central and eastern Pacific.The eastward propagation of the MJO can extend to the central Pacific in the positive phase of the PIOAM,whereas it is mainly confined to west of 160°E in the negative phase.The PIOAM impacts MJO activity by modifying the atmospheric circulation and moisture budget.Anomalous ascending(descending)motion and positive(negative)moisture anomalies occur over the western Indian Ocean and central-eastern Pacific(Maritime Continent and western Pacific)during the positive phase of the PIOAM.The anomalous circulation is almost the opposite in the negative phases of the PIOAM.This anomalous circulation and moisture can modulate the activity of the MJO.The stronger moistening over the Indian Ocean induced by zonal and vertical moisture advection leads to the stronger MJO activity over the Indian Ocean in the negative phase of the PIOAM.During the positive phase of the PIOAM,the MJO propagates farther east over the central Pacific owing to the stronger moistening there,which is mainly attributable to the meridional and vertical moisture advection,especially low-frequency background state moisture advection by the MJO’s meridional and vertical velocities.
基金jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA11010102)the NSFC (Grant Nos. 41375094 and 41406028)+1 种基金the "973" project (Grant No. 2012CB956000)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)
文摘The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin （IOB）/dipole （IOD） mode of SST anomalies （SSTAs） and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the period 1958-2008. Both partial correlation analysis and composite analysis show that both the positive （negative） phase of the lOB and IOD （independent of each other） in the tropical Indian Ocean are possible contributors to the E1 Nino （La Nifia） decay and phase transition to La Nifia （El Nifio） about one year later. However, the influence on ENSO transition induced by the IOB is stronger than that by the IOD. The SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the coming year originate from subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean, induced by the IOB and IOD through eastward and upward propagation to meet the surface. During this process, however the contribution of the oceanic channel process between the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans is totally different for the IOB and IOD. For the IOD, the influence of the Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies could propagate to the eastern Pacific to induce the ENSO transition. For the IOB, the impact of the oceanic channel stays and disappears in the western Pacific without propagation to the eastern Pacific.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41276011 and 41221063the Research Project of Chinese Ministry of Education under contract No.113041Athe Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract under contract No.GASI-03-01-01-05
文摘The annual subduction rate in the South Indian Ocean was calculated by analyzing Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） outputs in the period of 1950-2008. The subduction rate census for potential density classes showed a peak corresponding to Indian Ocean subtropical mode water （IOSTMW） in the southwestern part of the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre. The deeper mixed layer depth, the sharper mixed-layer fronts and the associated relatively faster circulation in the present climatology resulted in a larger lateral induction, which primarily dominants the IOSTMW subduction rate, while with only minor contribution from vertical pumping. Without loss of generality, through careful analysis of the water characteristics in the layer of minimum vertical temperature gradient （LMVTG）, the authors suggest that the IOSTMW was identified as a thermostad, with a lateral minimum of low potential vorticity （PV, less than 200× 10^-12 m^-1·s^-1） and a low dT/dz （less than 1.5℃/（100 m））. The IOSTMW within the South Indian Ocean subtropical gyre distributed in the region approximately from 25° to 50° E and from 30° to 39°S. Additionally, the average characteristics （temperature, salinity, potential density） of the mode water were estimated about （16.38 ± 0.29）℃, （35.46 ±0.04）, （26.02 ±0.04） ae over the past 60 years.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40405010, 40233028)Open Project from the Key StateLaboratory for the Numerical Simulation of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
文摘Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature （SST） and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode （IODM） and the strength of South China Sea （SCS） Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. （1） There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode （USBM） and Indian Ocean dipole mode （IODM）, respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing deeadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. （2） When positive （negative） IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak （strong）. The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. （3） When the SCS summer monsoon is strong （weak）, the IODM will be in its positive （negative） phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.
文摘Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.
基金The work is supported by the ＂100 Talent project＂ of Chinese Academy of Sciences （Grant No. KCL14014） the National 0utstanding Youth Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40325016）.
文摘A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.61001137the Project of Knowledge Innovative Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other projects under contract Nos Y1530151A81530151G4 and Y15102EN00
文摘The relationships among an ocean wave spectrum,a fully polarimetric coherence matrix,and radar parameters are deduced with an electromagnetic wave theory.Furthermore,the relationship between the polarimetric entropy and ocean wave spectrum is established based on the definition of entropy and a twoscale scattering model of the ocean surface.It is the first time that the polarimetric entropy of the ocean surface is presented in theory.Meanwhile,the relationships among the fully polarimetric entropy and the parameters related to radar and ocean are discussed.The study is the basis of further monitoring targets on the ocean surface and deriving oceanic information with the entropy from the ocean surface.The contrast enhancement between human-made targets and the ocean surface with the entropy is presented with quad-pol airborne synthetic aperture radar（AIRSAR） data.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2012CB955603 &2010 CB950302)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05090404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41149908)
文摘The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set （ICOADS） monthly data for the period 1979-2010. Statistical analy- ses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD. The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September-November is associated with an IOD event, while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event. In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO, NIO SST warms twice, rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year. Both short- wave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation. The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness. A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming. The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind. In the first NIO warming, the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux. In the second NIO warming, both factors are important.
基金supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Grant No.GYHY201506032)an NSFC project (Grant No.41405086)and a National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2016YFA0601801)
文摘There is increasing evidence of the possible role of extratropical forcing in the evolution of ENSO. The Southern Hemi- sphere Annular Mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. This study shows that the austral summer （December-January-February; DJF） SAM may also influence the amplitude of ENSO decay during austral autumn （March-April-May; MAM）. The mechanisms associated with this SAM-ENSO relationship can be briefly summarized as follows： The SAM is positively （negatively） correlated with SST in the Southern Hemisphere middle （high） latitudes. This dipole-like SST anomaly pattern is referred to as the Southern Ocean Dipole （SOD）. The DJF SOD, caused by the DJF SAM, could persist until MAM and then influence atmospheric circulation, including trade winds, over the Nifio3.4 area. Anomalous trade winds and SST anomalies over the Nifio3.4 area related to the DJF SAM are further developed through the Bjerkness feedback, which eventually results in a cooling （warming） over the Nifio3.4 area followed by the positive （negative） DJF SAM.
基金This work was jointly supported by the Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2- 108, ZKCX2-SW-210) and the National Key Progamme for Developing Basic Sciences (G200007850-2). Additional financial support from the National Natural Sci
文摘During El Niño events, the warm anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are seen to occur in conjunction with prominent warm anomalies in the North Pacific SSTs off the west coast of North America as well as with cold anomalies in the central North Pacific. This kind of North Pacific response to ENSO is examined in observational data and IPSL air-sea coupled model simulations. Analyses based on observational data and the model output data both support the hypothesis of an “atmospheric bridge concept”, i.e., the atmospheric response to ENSO, in turn, forces the extra-tropical SST anomalies associated with the El Ninno event, thereby serving as a bridge between the tropical and extra-tropical Pacific. Regarding the mechanism responsible for this, the ocean dynamical response to the atmospheric forcing is suggested to be active, while the contribution of latent heat flux is also significant. The role of solar radiation, longwave radiation, and sensible heat flux are of minor importance however, as indicated in the model. Further analysis shows that the North Pacific mode, which is linearly independent of ENSO, resembles the El Niño-type SST mode in the northern Pacific, i.e. both take the pattern of a zonally-oriented dipole in the subtropical Pacific, though differ slightly in the location of the anomaly center. The coupling between the North Pacific mode and the atmosphere is found to be mainly via air-sea heat flux exchange in the model. Both solar radiation and longwave radiation play important roles, while the contribution of latent heat flux is nearly negligible.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41206186the Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment Programmes under contract No.2015-04-03
文摘A new climatology of cyclones in the Southern Ocean is generated by applying an automated cyclone detection and tracking algorithm （developed by Hodges at the Reading University） for an improved and relatively high- resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis during 1979-2013. A validation shows that identified cyclone tracks are in good agreement with a available analyzed cyclone product. The climatological characteristics of the Southern Ocean cyclones are then analyzed, including track, number, density, intensity, deepening rate and explosive events. An analysis shows that the number of cyclones in the Southern Ocean has increased for 1979-2013, but only statistically significant in summer. Coincident with the circumpolar trough, a single high-density band of cyclones is observed in 55^-67~S, and cyclone density has generally increased in north of this band for 1979-2013, except summer. The intensity of up to 70% cyclones in the Southern Ocean is less than 980 hPa, and only a few cyclones with pressure less than 920 hPa are detected for 1979-2013. Further analysis shows that a high frequency of explosive cyclones is located in the band of 45^-55~S, and the Atlantic Ocean sector has much higher frequent occurrence of the explosive cyclones than that in the Pacific Ocean sector. Additionally, the relationship between cyclone activities in the Southern Ocean and the Southern Annular Mode is discussed.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (40788002,40676010, 40830106)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technologysupported by the ZhuFeng and Luka Projects of Ocean University of China(OUC) with funding from the Chinese Ministry of Education
文摘Mechanisms for the spatio-temporal development of the Tropical Pacific Meridional Mode （TPMM） are investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. In both observations and the model, this meridional mode displays decadal variations and is most pronounced in spring and early summer. The model simulation suggests that once SST anomalies in the subtropical northeastern Pacific are initiated, say by northeasterly trade wind variability, perturbations evolve into a merdional dipole in 2 -3 months. A wind-evaporative-SST feedback causes a southwestward propagation of initial subtropical SST anomalies, while anomalous equatorial upwelling helps form the southern lobe of the meridional dipole. The TPMM development is a fast process （a few months） and depends on the seasonal cycle.
基金We want, to express our gratitude for support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40136010） and the Education Ministry of China.
文摘The role of halted ＂baroclinic modes＂ in the central equatorial Pacific is analyzed. It is found that dominant anomaly signals corresponding to ＂baroclinic modes＂ occur in the upper layer of the equatorial Pacific, in a two-and-a-half layer oceanic model, in assimilated results of a simple OGCM and in the ADCP observation of TAO. A second ＂baroclinic mode＂ is halted in the central equatorial Pacific corresponding to a positive SST anomaly while the first ＂baroclinic mode＂ propagates eastwards in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The role of the halted second ＂baroclinic mode＂ in the central equatorial Pacific is explained by a staged ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism in the formation of El Nifio： the westerly bursts in boreal winter over the western equatorial Pacific generate the halted second ＂baroclinic mode＂ in the central equatorial Pacific, leading to the increase of heat content and temperature in the upper layer of the central Pacific which induces the shift of convection from over the western equatorial Pacific to the central equatorial Pacific; another wider, westerly anomaly burst is induced over the western region of convection above the central equatorial Pacific and the westerly anomaly burst generates the first ＂baroclinic mode＂ propagating to the eastern equatorial Pacific, resulting in a warm event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The mechanism presented in this paper reveals that the central equatorial Pacific is a key region in detecting the possibility of ENSO and, by analyzing TAO observation data of ocean currents and temperature in the central equatorial Pacific, in predicting the coming of an El Nino several months ahead.
