Using system analysis theory and methods, a dynamic model of a water resource supply and demand system was built to simulate trends in the supply and demand of water in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan （Chang-Zhu-Tan） ...Using system analysis theory and methods, a dynamic model of a water resource supply and demand system was built to simulate trends in the supply and demand of water in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan （Chang-Zhu-Tan） urban agglomeration for the period 2012 to 2030. Four scenarios were examined; namely, a traditional development model, an economic development model, a water-saving model, and a coordinated development model. （i） The problem of balancing water resource supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with a growing population and a rapidly developing economy. （ii） By 2030, water demand is set to reach a total of 105.1 × 10^8 m^3, with a water supply of 5.4 × 10^8 m^3. A coordinated development model for water resource supply could meet the growing demands of socio-economic development, and generate huge comprehensive benefits. This will be the best solution for the development and utilization of a water resource supply and demand system in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. （iii） We should accelerate the construction of water conservation projects, strengthen the management of water conservation, optimize economic structures, enhance our awareness of the importance of protecting water resources, hasten the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement, and promote utilization efficiency, and support the capabilities of water resources to meet our expectations.展开更多
随着社会经济的发展和对生态保护需求的增强,以防洪和兴利为目标的传统水库综合调度已经不能满足多样化的需求,进行多目标的水库综合优化调度显得尤为重要。为实现皂市水库水资源综合效益最优化,平衡社会效益、经济效益和生态效益,面向...随着社会经济的发展和对生态保护需求的增强,以防洪和兴利为目标的传统水库综合调度已经不能满足多样化的需求,进行多目标的水库综合优化调度显得尤为重要。为实现皂市水库水资源综合效益最优化,平衡社会效益、经济效益和生态效益,面向水库的发电、供水和生态要求,在不同来水条件下建立基于多目标混合蛙跳差分进化算法(Multi-objective Shuffled Frog Leaping Differential Evolution Algorithm,MSFL-DEA)求解的皂市水库优化调度模型,并采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)与逼近理想点法(Technique for Oder Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solu⁃tion,TOPSIS)的组合赋权法进行不同决策偏好的方案优选。结果表明:随上游来水减少,水库的发电效益下降最为显著,其次为生态效益和供水效益;各来水频率下,生态与发电、供水与生态的竞争关系相对更为明显,发电与供水之间相对较弱;根据不同决策偏好,得出供水优先、发电优先、生态优先以及均衡优化4组方案,对比认为均衡方案偏向折中,且年内各月的供水、生态及发电过程也相对协调(以P=75%为例);该方案在来水频率分别为50%、75%和95%时,年发电量分别为3.697、2.981、2.155亿kWh,供水满足度为0.871、0.775、0.702,生态满足度为0.861、0.699、0.615。研究成果有利于提高水资源利用效率,为皂市水库的科学调度决策提供参考。展开更多
基金National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 15BJY051 Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No. 13YBA016 Science ＆ Technology Research Project of the Department of Land and Resource of Hunan Province, No.2014-13
文摘Using system analysis theory and methods, a dynamic model of a water resource supply and demand system was built to simulate trends in the supply and demand of water in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan （Chang-Zhu-Tan） urban agglomeration for the period 2012 to 2030. Four scenarios were examined; namely, a traditional development model, an economic development model, a water-saving model, and a coordinated development model. （i） The problem of balancing water resource supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with a growing population and a rapidly developing economy. （ii） By 2030, water demand is set to reach a total of 105.1 × 10^8 m^3, with a water supply of 5.4 × 10^8 m^3. A coordinated development model for water resource supply could meet the growing demands of socio-economic development, and generate huge comprehensive benefits. This will be the best solution for the development and utilization of a water resource supply and demand system in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. （iii） We should accelerate the construction of water conservation projects, strengthen the management of water conservation, optimize economic structures, enhance our awareness of the importance of protecting water resources, hasten the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement, and promote utilization efficiency, and support the capabilities of water resources to meet our expectations.
文摘随着社会经济的发展和对生态保护需求的增强,以防洪和兴利为目标的传统水库综合调度已经不能满足多样化的需求,进行多目标的水库综合优化调度显得尤为重要。为实现皂市水库水资源综合效益最优化,平衡社会效益、经济效益和生态效益,面向水库的发电、供水和生态要求,在不同来水条件下建立基于多目标混合蛙跳差分进化算法(Multi-objective Shuffled Frog Leaping Differential Evolution Algorithm,MSFL-DEA)求解的皂市水库优化调度模型,并采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)与逼近理想点法(Technique for Oder Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solu⁃tion,TOPSIS)的组合赋权法进行不同决策偏好的方案优选。结果表明:随上游来水减少,水库的发电效益下降最为显著,其次为生态效益和供水效益;各来水频率下,生态与发电、供水与生态的竞争关系相对更为明显,发电与供水之间相对较弱;根据不同决策偏好,得出供水优先、发电优先、生态优先以及均衡优化4组方案,对比认为均衡方案偏向折中,且年内各月的供水、生态及发电过程也相对协调(以P=75%为例);该方案在来水频率分别为50%、75%和95%时,年发电量分别为3.697、2.981、2.155亿kWh,供水满足度为0.871、0.775、0.702,生态满足度为0.861、0.699、0.615。研究成果有利于提高水资源利用效率,为皂市水库的科学调度决策提供参考。
