Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vecto...Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.展开更多
This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of fi...This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.展开更多
Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk...Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.展开更多
This study is about Malaysia＇s investment environment. I＇ve undertaken its writing in part as a reflection on my own involvement with Malaysia over more than halfa century （from Malaya in 1963）. The study also bri...This study is about Malaysia＇s investment environment. I＇ve undertaken its writing in part as a reflection on my own involvement with Malaysia over more than halfa century （from Malaya in 1963）. The study also brings to bear a structure for analysis drawn from the field of political risk analysis. I have been involved with formal （corporate） political risk assessment since 1979 and bring that experience into the discussion that follows. I have published extensively on both Malaysia and political risk. Some of these publications are cited below. Political risk assessment depends on experts on the countries that they examine. 1 don＇t usually refer to myself as an ＂expert＂ but rather as a specialist. However, the common reference in political risk studies is to data generated by experts. In the paper below I discuss the nature of political risk assessment, Malaysia, my own credentials that have gotten me into the political risk business, and three political risk assessment methodologies, with the results for Malaysia for each. I give emphasis to the assessment that I have done using the Economist method, for reasons that I provide below. I was able to incorporate interviews of 35 professional subjects in Malaysia in February 2014 in which they were each able to rate Malaysia using the Economist method. They were drawn from government, business, journalism, and academe. I think the results are interesting, at least.展开更多
This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerg...This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerging countries.More specifically,we explore whether the country-specific risks,namely financial,economic,and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors’non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk.To do so,we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004–2020.The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.105,Q.50=−0.131,Q.75=−0.153,Q.95=−0.175).Furthermore,the results underscore that an emerging country’s political,economic,and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.122,Q.50=−0.141,Q.75=−0.163,Q.95=−0.172).Moreover,the results suggest that,in addition to the banking sectorspecific determinants,credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development,lending interest rate,and global risk.The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers,bank executives,researchers,and analysts.展开更多
Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively ...Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively affects food reserve ratio,and the same effects hold for both internal risk and external risk.Moreover,the authors find that the increasing external or internal risks both negatively affect food production and food exports,but external risk does not significantly impact food imports and it positively impacts food consumption,while internal risk negatively impacts food imports and food consumption.The results suggest that most governments have difficulty raising subsequent food reserve ratios in face of an increasing political risk,no matter if it is an internal risk or an external risk although the mechanisms behind the impacts are different.展开更多
Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construc...Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has prompted Central Asia to look outwards for more collaborations in the oil industry.China's need for oil investment in Central Asia has also increased significantly.This research established a comprehensive index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The system incorporated political,regulatory,economic,social,and infrastructural indices.Based on the Delphi method and fuzzy comprehension evaluation method,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed and analyzed the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The results indicate that the risk score for regulatory risk was highest with the value of 6.1670,indicating a high risk level in transnational oil investment,followed by economic,social,political,and infrastructural risk indices.Of the 18 secondary risk indices calculated,there were seven indices with the probability of high risk occurrence exceeded 30.0%and the descending order was as follows:establishment of mining rights;host country intervention in operations;taxing system;stability of regulations;war and turmoil;labor capital;and ethnic,cultural,and religious differences.These seven critical risks should be watched closely and avoided during transnational oil investment in Central Asia.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks of investing oil in Central Asia.The findings demonstrate the causes of these risks and provide a scientific basis for reasonably avoiding oil investment risk and improving investment benefits for both host and investing countries.展开更多
CNOOC＇s 2005 attempt to take over Unocal was dubbed by some Chinese media as ＂Acquisition of the Century＂, as the $18.5 billion bid was the largest-ever overseas acquisition by a Chinese company. CNOOC eventually w...CNOOC＇s 2005 attempt to take over Unocal was dubbed by some Chinese media as ＂Acquisition of the Century＂, as the $18.5 billion bid was the largest-ever overseas acquisition by a Chinese company. CNOOC eventually withdrew its offer after Chevron joined the bidding war and political sentiment in the U.S. Congress became hostile. This paper analyzes the competitive bidding process and provides a strategic review. CNOOC＇s advantages in the acquisition included its international expertise, financing capability, access to the growing Chinese market, and its willingness to retain Unocal staff after the merger. The main challenges were corporate governance, especially the understanding of the role of the board and the management of political risk in the U.S. In hindsight a pledge to divest Unocal＇s U.S. assets and not to give any impression of using subsidized loans could have helped deflect some political criticisms. Eventually, the U.S. government published the required energy security study in 2006 and it provided no support to the political concerns of the Congress.展开更多
The article is concentrated on the Slovak commercial insurance, commercial insurance market, non-life insurance, and international risks on the Slovak Republic. Since 1 May 2004, the Slovak insurance market has been p...The article is concentrated on the Slovak commercial insurance, commercial insurance market, non-life insurance, and international risks on the Slovak Republic. Since 1 May 2004, the Slovak insurance market has been part of the uniform European Union insurance market, which includes over 5,000 insurance companies. After Slovakia’s admission to the European Union, several legislative changes have been adopted in the area of commercial insurance industry, which also influenced non-life insurance and the insurance of international risks as part of non-life risks. The most recent act in the area of commercial insurance mentioned in the paper is the Act of the National Council SR No. 39/2015 Coll. on Insurance, in which there are legislative changes in life and also non-life insurance. Basic terms are defined and commented on in the first two chapters （Lowry, Rawlings, ＆ Merkin, 2015）. The nature of international risks as part of non-life risks is described in the second chapter. International risks are classified in the third chapter; international risks are subdivided in the paper into commercial or trade risks, political and economic risks, and special types of risks.展开更多
This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation a...This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.展开更多
基金financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71633006,71874210,71874207,71974208)the Natural Science Founda-tion of Hunan Province,China(No.2020JJ5784)the Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China(No.2020CX049)。
文摘Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.
基金Acknowledgements： This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （71072066, 71302183）, the Social Science Fund of China＇s Education Department （14YJC790053）, the Distinguished Young Scholars Fund of Sichuan University （SKJC201007, SKYB201402）, and the Sichuan Provincial Social Science Fund （SC14C054）. The usual disclaimer applies.
文摘This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.
文摘Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.
文摘This study is about Malaysia＇s investment environment. I＇ve undertaken its writing in part as a reflection on my own involvement with Malaysia over more than halfa century （from Malaya in 1963）. The study also brings to bear a structure for analysis drawn from the field of political risk analysis. I have been involved with formal （corporate） political risk assessment since 1979 and bring that experience into the discussion that follows. I have published extensively on both Malaysia and political risk. Some of these publications are cited below. Political risk assessment depends on experts on the countries that they examine. 1 don＇t usually refer to myself as an ＂expert＂ but rather as a specialist. However, the common reference in political risk studies is to data generated by experts. In the paper below I discuss the nature of political risk assessment, Malaysia, my own credentials that have gotten me into the political risk business, and three political risk assessment methodologies, with the results for Malaysia for each. I give emphasis to the assessment that I have done using the Economist method, for reasons that I provide below. I was able to incorporate interviews of 35 professional subjects in Malaysia in February 2014 in which they were each able to rate Malaysia using the Economist method. They were drawn from government, business, journalism, and academe. I think the results are interesting, at least.
文摘This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerging countries.More specifically,we explore whether the country-specific risks,namely financial,economic,and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors’non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk.To do so,we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004–2020.The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.105,Q.50=−0.131,Q.75=−0.153,Q.95=−0.175).Furthermore,the results underscore that an emerging country’s political,economic,and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.122,Q.50=−0.141,Q.75=−0.163,Q.95=−0.172).Moreover,the results suggest that,in addition to the banking sectorspecific determinants,credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development,lending interest rate,and global risk.The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers,bank executives,researchers,and analysts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71972010 and 72201120the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi under Grant No.20232BAB201027the Program of Graduate Education and Teaching Reform of Jiangxi Province under Grant No.JXYJG-2023-008。
文摘Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively affects food reserve ratio,and the same effects hold for both internal risk and external risk.Moreover,the authors find that the increasing external or internal risks both negatively affect food production and food exports,but external risk does not significantly impact food imports and it positively impacts food consumption,while internal risk negatively impacts food imports and food consumption.The results suggest that most governments have difficulty raising subsequent food reserve ratios in face of an increasing political risk,no matter if it is an internal risk or an external risk although the mechanisms behind the impacts are different.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road(XDA20040402).
文摘Central Asia(including five countries:Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and Tajikistan)is rich in oil reserves and has become one of the most important target regions for global oil investment.The construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt has prompted Central Asia to look outwards for more collaborations in the oil industry.China's need for oil investment in Central Asia has also increased significantly.This research established a comprehensive index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The system incorporated political,regulatory,economic,social,and infrastructural indices.Based on the Delphi method and fuzzy comprehension evaluation method,we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed and analyzed the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia.The results indicate that the risk score for regulatory risk was highest with the value of 6.1670,indicating a high risk level in transnational oil investment,followed by economic,social,political,and infrastructural risk indices.Of the 18 secondary risk indices calculated,there were seven indices with the probability of high risk occurrence exceeded 30.0%and the descending order was as follows:establishment of mining rights;host country intervention in operations;taxing system;stability of regulations;war and turmoil;labor capital;and ethnic,cultural,and religious differences.These seven critical risks should be watched closely and avoided during transnational oil investment in Central Asia.This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the potential risks of investing oil in Central Asia.The findings demonstrate the causes of these risks and provide a scientific basis for reasonably avoiding oil investment risk and improving investment benefits for both host and investing countries.
文摘CNOOC＇s 2005 attempt to take over Unocal was dubbed by some Chinese media as ＂Acquisition of the Century＂, as the $18.5 billion bid was the largest-ever overseas acquisition by a Chinese company. CNOOC eventually withdrew its offer after Chevron joined the bidding war and political sentiment in the U.S. Congress became hostile. This paper analyzes the competitive bidding process and provides a strategic review. CNOOC＇s advantages in the acquisition included its international expertise, financing capability, access to the growing Chinese market, and its willingness to retain Unocal staff after the merger. The main challenges were corporate governance, especially the understanding of the role of the board and the management of political risk in the U.S. In hindsight a pledge to divest Unocal＇s U.S. assets and not to give any impression of using subsidized loans could have helped deflect some political criticisms. Eventually, the U.S. government published the required energy security study in 2006 and it provided no support to the political concerns of the Congress.
文摘The article is concentrated on the Slovak commercial insurance, commercial insurance market, non-life insurance, and international risks on the Slovak Republic. Since 1 May 2004, the Slovak insurance market has been part of the uniform European Union insurance market, which includes over 5,000 insurance companies. After Slovakia’s admission to the European Union, several legislative changes have been adopted in the area of commercial insurance industry, which also influenced non-life insurance and the insurance of international risks as part of non-life risks. The most recent act in the area of commercial insurance mentioned in the paper is the Act of the National Council SR No. 39/2015 Coll. on Insurance, in which there are legislative changes in life and also non-life insurance. Basic terms are defined and commented on in the first two chapters （Lowry, Rawlings, ＆ Merkin, 2015）. The nature of international risks as part of non-life risks is described in the second chapter. International risks are classified in the third chapter; international risks are subdivided in the paper into commercial or trade risks, political and economic risks, and special types of risks.
文摘This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.
