Based on the property of entropy,a new index Q was defined to measure the temporal concentration property of summertime daily rainfall in China,based on daily precipitation data collected at 553 observation stations i...Based on the property of entropy,a new index Q was defined to measure the temporal concentration property of summertime daily rainfall in China,based on daily precipitation data collected at 553 observation stations in China during 1961–2010.Furthermore,changes in the temporal concentration property of summer precipitation in China were investigated.The results indicate that the regions with larger Q values were located in most parts of Northwest China and the north of the Yellow River,where daily precipitation tended to become temporally concentrated during the study period.On the contrary,smaller Q values were found in eastern Tibetan Plateau,southeastern Northwest China,and most parts of Southwest and South China.The most obvious increasing trend of Q index was found in South China and most parts of Southwest China,where precipitation showed a temporal concentration trend.However,a decreasing trend of Q index was found in Northwest China,the Tibetan Plateau,and the north of the Huaihe River.Variations of the Q index and the summer rainfall total during 1961–2010 in China both exhibited an increasing trend,implying larger temporal variability in rainfall attributes.It is illustrated that the summer precipitation in general became more temporally concentrated with more intense rainfall events and wetter days.展开更多
This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal var...This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal variability and trend analysis. The results showed decreasing trend in rainfall from its first half of the observed study period (1988-2002) to last half of the time period (2003-2017) in total average annual as well as monsoonal average rainfall by 14.92% and 15.50% respectively. It was predicted from linear regression results that by 2030 the average annual and monsoonal rainfall will drop by 35% and 34.10% respectively. All stations showed negative trend except Fakara met-station in annual rainfall. In the seasonal trend analysis, the results showed decreasing trend almost in all met-stations. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess the trend. All met-stations show significant negative trend. To assess drought in the study area, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to 12-month temporal time period. The results predicted meteorological drought in the near future. The spatial distribution of rainfall presented changing phenomena in average annual, monsoonal, winter, and summer seasons in both analyzed periods.展开更多
Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at...Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.展开更多
The hierarchy and definition of the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation- concentration period of annual precipitation have been proposed by using the so-called vector method of annual distribution of ...The hierarchy and definition of the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation- concentration period of annual precipitation have been proposed by using the so-called vector method of annual distribution of precipitation,so that the two relevant parameters can represent the annual distribution of total precipitation correctly and indeed accurately.The relationship between the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and variations of the two parameters and the annual precipitation amount in China has been further investigated.Results demonstrate that the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period increase from southeast to northwest gradually.Moreover there obviously exists a belt pattern:the largest variability of the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period occurs in the Yellow River Valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the significant zones in which flood and drought take place frequently.It is found that there exist high correlations between the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation- concentration period and the annual precipitation amount in Northeast China,North China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Furthermore,8-year and 22-year periodic oscillations in the precipitation-concentration degree and 6-year and 12-year cycles in the precipitation-concentration period are identified by use of their Morlet wavelet analysis.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575094 and 41275092)Project for Postgraduate Scientific Research and Innovation of Jiangsu Province(KYLX_0842 and CXZZ12-0485)Innovation Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2015LASW-A03)
文摘Based on the property of entropy,a new index Q was defined to measure the temporal concentration property of summertime daily rainfall in China,based on daily precipitation data collected at 553 observation stations in China during 1961–2010.Furthermore,changes in the temporal concentration property of summer precipitation in China were investigated.The results indicate that the regions with larger Q values were located in most parts of Northwest China and the north of the Yellow River,where daily precipitation tended to become temporally concentrated during the study period.On the contrary,smaller Q values were found in eastern Tibetan Plateau,southeastern Northwest China,and most parts of Southwest and South China.The most obvious increasing trend of Q index was found in South China and most parts of Southwest China,where precipitation showed a temporal concentration trend.However,a decreasing trend of Q index was found in Northwest China,the Tibetan Plateau,and the north of the Huaihe River.Variations of the Q index and the summer rainfall total during 1961–2010 in China both exhibited an increasing trend,implying larger temporal variability in rainfall attributes.It is illustrated that the summer precipitation in general became more temporally concentrated with more intense rainfall events and wetter days.
文摘This study presents the work commenced in northern Thailand on spatial and temporal variability of rainfall. Thirty years (1988-2017) rainfall data of eight meteorological stations were used for assessing temporal variability and trend analysis. The results showed decreasing trend in rainfall from its first half of the observed study period (1988-2002) to last half of the time period (2003-2017) in total average annual as well as monsoonal average rainfall by 14.92% and 15.50% respectively. It was predicted from linear regression results that by 2030 the average annual and monsoonal rainfall will drop by 35% and 34.10% respectively. All stations showed negative trend except Fakara met-station in annual rainfall. In the seasonal trend analysis, the results showed decreasing trend almost in all met-stations. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to assess the trend. All met-stations show significant negative trend. To assess drought in the study area, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to 12-month temporal time period. The results predicted meteorological drought in the near future. The spatial distribution of rainfall presented changing phenomena in average annual, monsoonal, winter, and summer seasons in both analyzed periods.
文摘Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic impacts.Therefore,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is vital.In this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic stations.GCMs have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the plain.Using the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the results.The results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.At the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this region.The climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural livelihoods.Accordingly,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the damages.The results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China projects"Studies on interaction between the South Asia high and the Asian monsoon and its mechanisms"(40175021)"Interannual and interdecadal variations of Meiyu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basins and their mechanisms"(40233037)
文摘The hierarchy and definition of the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation- concentration period of annual precipitation have been proposed by using the so-called vector method of annual distribution of precipitation,so that the two relevant parameters can represent the annual distribution of total precipitation correctly and indeed accurately.The relationship between the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and variations of the two parameters and the annual precipitation amount in China has been further investigated.Results demonstrate that the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period increase from southeast to northwest gradually.Moreover there obviously exists a belt pattern:the largest variability of the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period occurs in the Yellow River Valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the significant zones in which flood and drought take place frequently.It is found that there exist high correlations between the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation- concentration period and the annual precipitation amount in Northeast China,North China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Furthermore,8-year and 22-year periodic oscillations in the precipitation-concentration degree and 6-year and 12-year cycles in the precipitation-concentration period are identified by use of their Morlet wavelet analysis.
