Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variat...Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.展开更多
An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.T...An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.展开更多
The critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows is utmost importance for local early hazard forecasting.This paper presents research on the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows through comparisons...The critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows is utmost importance for local early hazard forecasting.This paper presents research on the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows through comparisons between slope gradients and three key factors,including topographic contributing area,dimensionless discharge,and Shields stress.The rainfall amount was estimated by utilizing in-situ rainfall records and a slope-dependent Shields stress model was created.The created model can predict critical Shields stress more accurately than the other two models.Furthermore,a new dimensionless discharge equation was proposed based on the corresponding discharge-gradient datasets.The new equation,along with factors such as contributing area above bed failure sites,channel width,and mean diameter of debris flow deposits,predicts a smaller rainfall amount than the in-situ measured records.Although the slope-dependent Shields stress model performs well and the estimated rainfall amount is lower than the in-situ records,the sediment initiation in the experiments falls within sheet flow regime due to a large Shields stress.Therefore,further sediment initiation experiments at a steeper slope range are expected in the future to ensure that the sediment transport belongs to mass failure regime characterized by a low level of Shields stress.Finally,a more accurate hazard forecast on the runoff-initiated debris flow holds promise when the corresponding critical slope-dependent dimensionless discharge of no motion,fluvial sediment transport,mass flow regime,and sheet flow regime are considered.展开更多
The high and steep slopes along a high-speed railway in the mountainous area of Southwest China are mostly composed of loose accumulations of debris with large internal pores and poor stability,which can easily induce...The high and steep slopes along a high-speed railway in the mountainous area of Southwest China are mostly composed of loose accumulations of debris with large internal pores and poor stability,which can easily induce adverse geological disasters under rainfall conditions.To ensure the smooth construction of the high-speed railway and the subsequent safe operation,it is necessary to master the stability evolution process of the loose accumulation slope under rainfall.This article simulates rainfall using the finite element analysis software’s hydromechanical coupling module.The slope stability under various rainfall situations is calculated and analysed based on the strength reduction method.To validate the simulation results,a field monitoring system is established to study the deformation characteristics of the slope under rainfall.The results show that rainfall duration is the key factor affecting slope stability.Given a constant amount of rainfall,the stability of the slope decreases with increasing duration of rainfall.Moreover,when the amount and duration of rainfall are constant,continuous rainfall has a greater impact on slope stability than intermittent rainfall.The setting of the field retaining structures has a significant role in improving slope stability.The field monitoring data show that the slope is in the initial deformation stage and has good stability,which verifies the rationality of the numerical simulation method.The research results can provide some references for understanding the influence of rainfall on the stability of loose accumulation slopes along high-speed railways and establishing a monitoring system.展开更多
Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few s...Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few scholars have explored the unstable evolution of railway slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration.Based on the model test of sandy soil slope,the unstable evolution process of slope under locomotive vibration,rainfall,and rainfall-vibration joint action conditions was simulated in this paper.By comparing and analyzing the variation trends of soil pressure and water content of slope under these conditions,the change laws of pore pressure under the influence of vibration and rainfall were explored.The main control factors affecting the stability of slope structure under the joint action conditions were further defined.Combined with the slope failure phenomena under these three conditions,the causes of slope instability resulting from each leading factor were clarified.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the unstable evolution of the slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action was determined.The test results show that the unstable evolution process of sandy soil slope,under the rainfall-vibration joint action,can be divided into:rainfall erosion cracking,vibration promotion penetrating,and slope instability sliding three stages.In the process of slope unstable evolution,rainfall and vibration play the roles of inducing and promoting slide respectively.In addition,the deep cracks,which are the premise for the formation of the sliding surface,and the violent irregular fluctuation of soil pressure,which reflects the near penetration of the sliding surface,constitute the instability characteristics of the railway slope together.This paper reveals the unstable evolution of sandy soil slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration,hoping to provide the theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention technology of railway slopes.展开更多
The present study explored how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences October-November-December (OND) rainfall over Tanzania in recent decade following the 2011 abrupt change. The study spans 50 years, from 1973 to ...The present study explored how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences October-November-December (OND) rainfall over Tanzania in recent decade following the 2011 abrupt change. The study spans 50 years, from 1973 to 2022. Notable abrupt changes were observed in 1976 and 2011, leading us to divide our study into two periods: 1976-2010 and 2011-2022, allowing for a close investigation into the existing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall and their associated large-scale atmospheric circulations. It was found that the relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall strengthened, with the correlation changed from +0.73 during 1976-2010 to +0.81 during 2011-2022. Further investigation revealed that, during 1976-2010, areas that received above- normal rainfall during positive IOD experienced below-normal during 2011- 2022 and vice versa. The same pattern relationship was observed for negative IOD. Spatial analysis demonstrates that the percentage departure of rainfall across the region mirrors the standardized rainfall anomalies. The study highlights that the changing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall corresponds to the east-west shift of Walker circulation, as well as the north-south shift of Hadley circulation. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both positive and negative IOD events strengthened during 2011-2022 compared to 1976-2010. Close monitoring of this relationship across different timescales could be useful for updating OND rainfall seasonal forecasts in Tanzania, serving as a tool for reducing socio-economic impacts.展开更多
This paper presents an analysis of spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and thunderstorm occurrence over Ken-ya from January 1987 to December 2017.The meteorological data used were obtained from the Kenya Meteor...This paper presents an analysis of spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and thunderstorm occurrence over Ken-ya from January 1987 to December 2017.The meteorological data used were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department(KMD)for the same period.This included the monthly thunderstorm occurrences and rainfall amounts of 26 synoptic stations across the country.The characteristics of monthly,seasonal and annual frequency results were presented on spatial maps while Time series graphs were used to display the pattern for annual cycle,seasonal varia-tions and the inter-annual variability of rainfall amounts and thunderstorm occurrences.A well-known non-parametric statistical method Mann Kendall(MK)trend test was used to determine and compare the statistical significance of the trends.Thunderstorm frequencies over the Eastern,Central and Coast regions of the country showed a bimodal pattern with high frequencies coinciding with March-April-May(MAM)and October-November-December(OND)rainy sea-sons.Very few thunderstorm days were detected over June-July-August(JJA)season.The areas to the western part of the country,near Lake Victoria,had the highest thunderstorm frequencies in the country over the three seasons:MAM,JJAS and OND.The annual frequency showed a quasi-unimodal pattern.These places near Lake Victoria showed sig-nificantly increasing thunderstorm trends during the MAM and OND seasons irrespective of the rainfall trends.This shows the effects of Lake Victoria over these areas,and it acts as a continuous source of moisture for thunderstorm for-mation.However,most stations across the country showed a reducing trend of thunderstorm frequency during MAM and JJA seasons.The importance of these findings is that they could support various policy makers,and users of cli-mate information,especially in the agriculture and aviation industries.展开更多
An extremely heavy rainfall event occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021 and produced an hourly rainfall rate of 201.9 mm,which broke the station record for China's Mainland.Based on radar observations and a ...An extremely heavy rainfall event occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021 and produced an hourly rainfall rate of 201.9 mm,which broke the station record for China's Mainland.Based on radar observations and a convection-permitting simulation using the WRF-ARW model,this paper investigates the multiscale processes,especially those at the mesoscale,that support the extreme observed hourly rainfall.Results show that the extreme rainfall occurred in an environment characteristic of warm-sector heavy rainfall,with abundant warm moist air transported from the ocean by an abnormally northward-displaced western Pacific subtropical high and Typhoon In-Fa(2021).However,rather than through back building and echo training of convective cells often found in warm-sector heavy rainfall events,this extreme hourly rainfall event was caused by a single,quasi-stationary storm in Zhengzhou.Scale separation analysis reveals that the extreme-rainproducing storm was supported and maintained by the dynamic lifting of low-level converging flows from the north,south,and east of the storm.The low-level northerly flow originated from a mesoscale barrier jet on the eastern slope of the Taihang Mountain due to terrain blocking of large-scale easterly flows,which reached an overall balance with the southerly winds in association with a low-level meso-β-scale vortex located to the west of Zhengzhou.The large-scale easterly inflows that fed the deep convection via transport of thermodynamically unstable air into the storm prevented the eastward propagation of the weak,shallow cold pool.As a result,the convective storm was nearly stationary over Zhengzhou,resulting in record-breaking hourly precipitation.展开更多
An extremely heavy rainfall event lasting from 17 to 22 July 2021 occurred in Henan Province of China, with accumulated precipitation of more than 1000 mm over a 6-day period that exceeded its mean annual precipitatio...An extremely heavy rainfall event lasting from 17 to 22 July 2021 occurred in Henan Province of China, with accumulated precipitation of more than 1000 mm over a 6-day period that exceeded its mean annual precipitation. The present study examines the roles of persistent low-level jets(LLJs) in maintaining the precipitation using surface station observations and reanalysis datasets. The LLJs triggered strong ascending motions and carried moisture mainly from the outflow of Typhoon In-fa(2021). The varying directions of the LLJs well corresponded to the meridional shifts of the rainfall. The precipitation rate reached a maximum during 20-21 July as the LLJs strengthened and expanded vertically into double LLJs, including synoptic-weather-system-related LLJs(SLLJs) at 850–700 hPa and boundary-layer jets(BLJs)at ~950 hPa. The coupling of the SLLJ and BLJ provided strong mid-and low-level convergence on 20 July, whereas the SLLJ produced mid-level divergence at its entrance that coupled with low-level convergence at the terminus of the BLJ on21 July. The formation mechanisms of the two types of LLJs are further examined. The SLLJs and the low-pressure vortex(or inverted trough) varied synchronously as a whole and were affected by the southwestward movement of the WPSH in the rainiest period. The persistent large total pressure gradient force at low levels also maintained the strength of low-level geostrophic winds, thus sustaining the BLJs on the synoptic scale. The results based on a Du-Rotunno 1D model show that the Blackadar and Holton mechanisms jointly governed the BLJ dynamics on the diurnal scale.展开更多
This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permit...This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale[1-km resolution in the innermost domain(d3)].Two ensembles of simulation(CTRL,NURB),each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes,were conducted using different land cover scenarios:(i)the real urban land cover,(ii)all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover.The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region,although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members.The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%,and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB.The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south,southeast,and east of Zhengzhou.Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer(PBL),which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas.As a result,the lateral inflows of moisture and high-θe(equivalent potential temperature)air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.展开更多
With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slop...With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slope which is located on the left bank of the Jinsha River 75 km upstream of the Xiluodu dam site,began to deform in 2014.The potential failure of the slope not only threatens Yanjiao town but also affects the safe operation of the Xiluodu reservoir.This paper is to find the factors influencing the Yanjiao slope deformation through field investigation,geotechnical reconnaissance,and monitoring.Results show that the Yanjiao slope can be divided into a bank collapse area(BCA)and a strong deformation area(SDA)based on the crack distribution characteristics of the slope.The rear area of the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation with a maximum cumulative displacement(GPS monitoring point G4)of 505 mm and 399 mm in the horizontal and vertical directions,respectively.The potential failure surface of the slope is formed 36 m below the surface based on the borehole inclinometer.The bank collapses of the Yanjiao slope are directly caused by the reservoir impoundment while the deformation area of the slope is affected by the combination of the rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation.Based on mechanism of the Yanjiao slope,prestressed anchor combined with the surface drainage and slope unloading are recommended to prevent potential deformation.展开更多
During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extrem...During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs)are examined.In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency,sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR)distributions.In the region with higher LFRs,the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezing level,corresponding to more active riming processes.In addition,these ERCFs are more organized and display larger spatial coverage,which may be related to the stronger low-level wind shear and higher terrain in the region.In the region with lower LFRs,the ERCFs have lower echo tops and lower-echo centroids.However,no clear differences of the most unstable convective available potential energy(MUCAPE)exist in the ERCFs in the regions with different LFR characteristics.Regardless of the LFRs,raindrop collisional coalescence is the main process for the growth of raindrops in the ERCFs.In the ERCFs within the region with lower LFRs,the main mechanism for the rapid increase of liquid water content with decreasing altitude below 4 km is through the warm-rain processes converting cloud drops to raindrops.However,in those with higher LFRs,the liquid water content generally decreases with decreasing altitude.展开更多
A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)...A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.展开更多
Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced m...Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.展开更多
Two critical factors,namely intense precipitation and intricate excavation,can trigger rock mass disasters in mining operations.In this study,an indoor rainfall system was developed to precisely regulate the flow and ...Two critical factors,namely intense precipitation and intricate excavation,can trigger rock mass disasters in mining operations.In this study,an indoor rainfall system was developed to precisely regulate the flow and intensity of precipitation.A large-scale model experiment was conducted on a self-designed physical simulation experiment platform to investigate the failure and instability of high-steep rock slopes under unsaturated conditions.The real-time reproduction of the progressive failure process in high-steep rock slopes enabled the determination of the critical rainfall intensity and revealed the mechanism underlying slope instability.Experiment results indicated that rainfall may be the primary factor contributing to rock mass instability,while continuous pillar mining exacerbates the extent of rock mass failure.The critical failure stage of high-steep rock slopes occurs at a rainfall intensity of 40 mm/h,whereas a rainfall exceeding 50 mm can induce critical instability and precipitation reaching up to 60 mm will result in slope failure.The improved region growing segmentation method(IRGSM)was subsequently employed for image recognition of rock mass deformation in underground mines.Herein an error comparison with the simple linear iterative cluster(SLIC)superpixel method and the original region growing segmentation method(ORGSM)showed that the average identification error in the X and Y directions by the method was reduced significantly(1.82%and 1.80%in IRGSM;4.70%and 6.26%in SLIC;9.45%and 12.40%in ORGSM).Ultimately,the relationship between rainfall intensity and failure probability was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method.Moreover,the stability assessment criteria of rock slope under unsaturated condition were quantitatively and accurately evaluated.展开更多
Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional ob...Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.展开更多
The first long-term rainfall monitoring experiment using the commercial microwave links(CMLs)network in East China is introduced.The network,located in Jiangyin,Jiangsu Province,consists of 49 links with frequencies r...The first long-term rainfall monitoring experiment using the commercial microwave links(CMLs)network in East China is introduced.The network,located in Jiangyin,Jiangsu Province,consists of 49 links with frequencies ranging from 15 GHz to 26 GHz and lengths from 1.14 km to 4.78 km.An OTT PARSIVEL disdrometer is deployed to refine the local rain-induced attenuation relationship,and the CML observations are compared simultaneously with five rain gauges.The inversion parameters of the CML are optimized by minimizing the error of the accumulated rainfall of historical rainfall events.The inversion results show that the daily accumulated rainfall retrieved by the CMLs agrees well with the rain gauge measurements.As an opportunistic approach to monitor near-surface rainfall with high spatiotemporal representativeness and accuracy,the CML network can be used to monitor and forecast urban flood disasters,especially in regions where the widepread deployment of conventional meteorological instruments is impractical.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we invest...Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.展开更多
Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of rainfall potential to cause soil erosion.The Melamchi extreme flood occurred on June-15 and recurred on July-31,2021 in Nepal.During these flooding events,a large volume of sedime...Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of rainfall potential to cause soil erosion.The Melamchi extreme flood occurred on June-15 and recurred on July-31,2021 in Nepal.During these flooding events,a large volume of sediments were eroded,transported and deposited due to the high rainfall erosivity of the basin.In this study,the temporal and the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity within the Melamchi River Basin was estimated and further linked to sediment discharge and concentration at various sites along the river segments.The daily rainfall data for the event year 2021 of the entire basin were used.Validation was performed by post-flooding grain size sampling.The result showed that rainfall and rainfall erosivity exhibit pronounced intensity within the Melamchi River basin,particularly at Sermathang and Tarkeghang,both located in the middle section of the basin.The average annual rainfall in the Melamchi region was 3140.39 mm with an average annual erosivity of 18302.06(MJ mm)/(ha h yr).The average daily erosivity of the basin was 358.67(MJ mm)/(ha h)during the first event and 1241(MJ mm)/(ha h)for the second event.In the upper section of sampling,the sediment size ranged from 0.1 mm to>8 mm and was poorly graded.However,the lower region had smaller sediment ranging from 0.075 mm to>4.75 mm and also well graded.The smaller size(<1 mm)sediment passing was much higher in the Chanaute(78%)and Melamchi(66.5%)river segments but the larger size(>100 mm)sediments were passed relatively higher from the Kiwil(8.20%)and Ambathan(8.39%)river segments.During premonsoon and monsoon seasons,the highest sediment concentration was found to be 563.8 g/L and 344.3 g/L in Bhimtar and the lowest was 238.5 g/L and 132.1 g/L at the Ambathan,respectively.The sediment concentration during the pre-monsoon was found to be higher than the sediment concentration during the monsoon season in the Melamchi River.The more erosive regions in the basin were associated with the presence of highly fractured rock,weathered rocks and a thrust(weak)zone.The higher rainfall erosivity at upstream and the higher sediment concentration at downstream during flooding events have coincided well in the basin.Thus,the estimation of rainfall erosivity at the catchment scale and its influences on sediment concentration in the river are crucial for erosion control measures during flooding times in the Himalaya.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos. U2142202, 41975056, 42230612, and 41975058)Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab)
文摘Based on hourly rain gauge data during May–September of 2016–20,we analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of total rainfall(TR)and short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR;hourly rainfall≥20 mm)and their diurnal variations over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River basin.For all three types of terrain(i.e.,mountain,foothill,and plain),the amount of TR and SDHR both maximize in June/July,and the contribution of SDHR to TR(CST)peaks in August(amount:23%;frequency:1.74%).Foothill rainfall is characterized by a high TR amount and a high CST(in amount);mountain rainfall is characterized by a high TR frequency but a small CST(in amount);and plain rainfall shows a low TR amount and frequency,but a high CST(in amount).Overall,stations with high TR(amount and frequency)are mainly located over the mountains and in the foothills,while those with high SDHR(amount and frequency)are mainly concentrated in the foothills and plains close to mountainous areas.For all three types of terrain,the diurnal variations of both TR and SDHR exhibit a double peak(weak early morning and strong late afternoon)and a phase shift from the early-morning peak to the late-afternoon peak from May to August.Around the late-afternoon peak,the amount of TR and SDHR in the foothills is larger than over the mountains and plains.The TR intensity in the foothills increases significantly from midnight to afternoon,suggesting that thermal instability may play an important role in this process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41730965, U2242204, and 41175047)the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (Grant No.2013CB430104)+2 种基金the Key Project of the Joint Funds of the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Grant No.LZJMZ23D050003financial support from the China Scholarship Council for her visit to CAPSUniversity of Oklahoma
文摘An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.
基金supported by the by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0902)Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project(Z191100001419015).The。
文摘The critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows is utmost importance for local early hazard forecasting.This paper presents research on the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows through comparisons between slope gradients and three key factors,including topographic contributing area,dimensionless discharge,and Shields stress.The rainfall amount was estimated by utilizing in-situ rainfall records and a slope-dependent Shields stress model was created.The created model can predict critical Shields stress more accurately than the other two models.Furthermore,a new dimensionless discharge equation was proposed based on the corresponding discharge-gradient datasets.The new equation,along with factors such as contributing area above bed failure sites,channel width,and mean diameter of debris flow deposits,predicts a smaller rainfall amount than the in-situ measured records.Although the slope-dependent Shields stress model performs well and the estimated rainfall amount is lower than the in-situ records,the sediment initiation in the experiments falls within sheet flow regime due to a large Shields stress.Therefore,further sediment initiation experiments at a steeper slope range are expected in the future to ensure that the sediment transport belongs to mass failure regime characterized by a low level of Shields stress.Finally,a more accurate hazard forecast on the runoff-initiated debris flow holds promise when the corresponding critical slope-dependent dimensionless discharge of no motion,fluvial sediment transport,mass flow regime,and sheet flow regime are considered.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51978588).
文摘The high and steep slopes along a high-speed railway in the mountainous area of Southwest China are mostly composed of loose accumulations of debris with large internal pores and poor stability,which can easily induce adverse geological disasters under rainfall conditions.To ensure the smooth construction of the high-speed railway and the subsequent safe operation,it is necessary to master the stability evolution process of the loose accumulation slope under rainfall.This article simulates rainfall using the finite element analysis software’s hydromechanical coupling module.The slope stability under various rainfall situations is calculated and analysed based on the strength reduction method.To validate the simulation results,a field monitoring system is established to study the deformation characteristics of the slope under rainfall.The results show that rainfall duration is the key factor affecting slope stability.Given a constant amount of rainfall,the stability of the slope decreases with increasing duration of rainfall.Moreover,when the amount and duration of rainfall are constant,continuous rainfall has a greater impact on slope stability than intermittent rainfall.The setting of the field retaining structures has a significant role in improving slope stability.The field monitoring data show that the slope is in the initial deformation stage and has good stability,which verifies the rationality of the numerical simulation method.The research results can provide some references for understanding the influence of rainfall on the stability of loose accumulation slopes along high-speed railways and establishing a monitoring system.
基金supported by the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42027806)the Key Programme of the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41630639)National Natural Science Foundation of China General Program(Grant No.42372324).
文摘Understanding the unstable evolution of railway slopes is the premise for preventing slope failure and ensuring the safe operation of trains.However,as two major factors affecting the stability of railway slopes,few scholars have explored the unstable evolution of railway slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration.Based on the model test of sandy soil slope,the unstable evolution process of slope under locomotive vibration,rainfall,and rainfall-vibration joint action conditions was simulated in this paper.By comparing and analyzing the variation trends of soil pressure and water content of slope under these conditions,the change laws of pore pressure under the influence of vibration and rainfall were explored.The main control factors affecting the stability of slope structure under the joint action conditions were further defined.Combined with the slope failure phenomena under these three conditions,the causes of slope instability resulting from each leading factor were clarified.Finally,according to the above conclusions,the unstable evolution of the slope under the rainfall-vibration joint action was determined.The test results show that the unstable evolution process of sandy soil slope,under the rainfall-vibration joint action,can be divided into:rainfall erosion cracking,vibration promotion penetrating,and slope instability sliding three stages.In the process of slope unstable evolution,rainfall and vibration play the roles of inducing and promoting slide respectively.In addition,the deep cracks,which are the premise for the formation of the sliding surface,and the violent irregular fluctuation of soil pressure,which reflects the near penetration of the sliding surface,constitute the instability characteristics of the railway slope together.This paper reveals the unstable evolution of sandy soil slopes under the joint action of rainfall-vibration,hoping to provide the theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention technology of railway slopes.
文摘The present study explored how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences October-November-December (OND) rainfall over Tanzania in recent decade following the 2011 abrupt change. The study spans 50 years, from 1973 to 2022. Notable abrupt changes were observed in 1976 and 2011, leading us to divide our study into two periods: 1976-2010 and 2011-2022, allowing for a close investigation into the existing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall and their associated large-scale atmospheric circulations. It was found that the relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall strengthened, with the correlation changed from +0.73 during 1976-2010 to +0.81 during 2011-2022. Further investigation revealed that, during 1976-2010, areas that received above- normal rainfall during positive IOD experienced below-normal during 2011- 2022 and vice versa. The same pattern relationship was observed for negative IOD. Spatial analysis demonstrates that the percentage departure of rainfall across the region mirrors the standardized rainfall anomalies. The study highlights that the changing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall corresponds to the east-west shift of Walker circulation, as well as the north-south shift of Hadley circulation. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both positive and negative IOD events strengthened during 2011-2022 compared to 1976-2010. Close monitoring of this relationship across different timescales could be useful for updating OND rainfall seasonal forecasts in Tanzania, serving as a tool for reducing socio-economic impacts.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42105063]the Youth Training Project of the Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions[project number CAMT-202302]a funded project of Hengyang Normal University[project number 2022QD11].
文摘This paper presents an analysis of spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and thunderstorm occurrence over Ken-ya from January 1987 to December 2017.The meteorological data used were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department(KMD)for the same period.This included the monthly thunderstorm occurrences and rainfall amounts of 26 synoptic stations across the country.The characteristics of monthly,seasonal and annual frequency results were presented on spatial maps while Time series graphs were used to display the pattern for annual cycle,seasonal varia-tions and the inter-annual variability of rainfall amounts and thunderstorm occurrences.A well-known non-parametric statistical method Mann Kendall(MK)trend test was used to determine and compare the statistical significance of the trends.Thunderstorm frequencies over the Eastern,Central and Coast regions of the country showed a bimodal pattern with high frequencies coinciding with March-April-May(MAM)and October-November-December(OND)rainy sea-sons.Very few thunderstorm days were detected over June-July-August(JJA)season.The areas to the western part of the country,near Lake Victoria,had the highest thunderstorm frequencies in the country over the three seasons:MAM,JJAS and OND.The annual frequency showed a quasi-unimodal pattern.These places near Lake Victoria showed sig-nificantly increasing thunderstorm trends during the MAM and OND seasons irrespective of the rainfall trends.This shows the effects of Lake Victoria over these areas,and it acts as a continuous source of moisture for thunderstorm for-mation.However,most stations across the country showed a reducing trend of thunderstorm frequency during MAM and JJA seasons.The importance of these findings is that they could support various policy makers,and users of cli-mate information,especially in the agriculture and aviation industries.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42122036)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK0105)+2 种基金the National Key R&D Programs of China(2018YFC1507300)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91837207)the Beijing Climate Center(QHMS2021008).
文摘An extremely heavy rainfall event occurred in Zhengzhou,China,on 20 July 2021 and produced an hourly rainfall rate of 201.9 mm,which broke the station record for China's Mainland.Based on radar observations and a convection-permitting simulation using the WRF-ARW model,this paper investigates the multiscale processes,especially those at the mesoscale,that support the extreme observed hourly rainfall.Results show that the extreme rainfall occurred in an environment characteristic of warm-sector heavy rainfall,with abundant warm moist air transported from the ocean by an abnormally northward-displaced western Pacific subtropical high and Typhoon In-Fa(2021).However,rather than through back building and echo training of convective cells often found in warm-sector heavy rainfall events,this extreme hourly rainfall event was caused by a single,quasi-stationary storm in Zhengzhou.Scale separation analysis reveals that the extreme-rainproducing storm was supported and maintained by the dynamic lifting of low-level converging flows from the north,south,and east of the storm.The low-level northerly flow originated from a mesoscale barrier jet on the eastern slope of the Taihang Mountain due to terrain blocking of large-scale easterly flows,which reached an overall balance with the southerly winds in association with a low-level meso-β-scale vortex located to the west of Zhengzhou.The large-scale easterly inflows that fed the deep convection via transport of thermodynamically unstable air into the storm prevented the eastward propagation of the weak,shallow cold pool.As a result,the convective storm was nearly stationary over Zhengzhou,resulting in record-breaking hourly precipitation.
基金supported by Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42122033,41875055,and 42075006)Guangzhou Science and Technology Plan Projects(202002030346 and 202002030196).
文摘An extremely heavy rainfall event lasting from 17 to 22 July 2021 occurred in Henan Province of China, with accumulated precipitation of more than 1000 mm over a 6-day period that exceeded its mean annual precipitation. The present study examines the roles of persistent low-level jets(LLJs) in maintaining the precipitation using surface station observations and reanalysis datasets. The LLJs triggered strong ascending motions and carried moisture mainly from the outflow of Typhoon In-fa(2021). The varying directions of the LLJs well corresponded to the meridional shifts of the rainfall. The precipitation rate reached a maximum during 20-21 July as the LLJs strengthened and expanded vertically into double LLJs, including synoptic-weather-system-related LLJs(SLLJs) at 850–700 hPa and boundary-layer jets(BLJs)at ~950 hPa. The coupling of the SLLJ and BLJ provided strong mid-and low-level convergence on 20 July, whereas the SLLJ produced mid-level divergence at its entrance that coupled with low-level convergence at the terminus of the BLJ on21 July. The formation mechanisms of the two types of LLJs are further examined. The SLLJs and the low-pressure vortex(or inverted trough) varied synchronously as a whole and were affected by the southwestward movement of the WPSH in the rainiest period. The persistent large total pressure gradient force at low levels also maintained the strength of low-level geostrophic winds, thus sustaining the BLJs on the synoptic scale. The results based on a Du-Rotunno 1D model show that the Blackadar and Holton mechanisms jointly governed the BLJ dynamics on the diurnal scale.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030610 and 42075083)the Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J014)supported this study.
文摘This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale[1-km resolution in the innermost domain(d3)].Two ensembles of simulation(CTRL,NURB),each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes,were conducted using different land cover scenarios:(i)the real urban land cover,(ii)all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover.The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region,although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members.The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%,and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB.The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south,southeast,and east of Zhengzhou.Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer(PBL),which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas.As a result,the lateral inflows of moisture and high-θe(equivalent potential temperature)air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.
基金the project of POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Power China under Grant No.P46220the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan,China under Grant No.2022NSFSC0425the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province under Grant No.2021YJ0053。
文摘With the construction of the Xiluodu hydropower station on the Jinsha River,the reservoir impoundment began in 2013 and the water level fluctuates annually between 540 m and 600 m above sea level.The Yanjiao rock slope which is located on the left bank of the Jinsha River 75 km upstream of the Xiluodu dam site,began to deform in 2014.The potential failure of the slope not only threatens Yanjiao town but also affects the safe operation of the Xiluodu reservoir.This paper is to find the factors influencing the Yanjiao slope deformation through field investigation,geotechnical reconnaissance,and monitoring.Results show that the Yanjiao slope can be divided into a bank collapse area(BCA)and a strong deformation area(SDA)based on the crack distribution characteristics of the slope.The rear area of the slope has been experiencing persistent deformation with a maximum cumulative displacement(GPS monitoring point G4)of 505 mm and 399 mm in the horizontal and vertical directions,respectively.The potential failure surface of the slope is formed 36 m below the surface based on the borehole inclinometer.The bank collapses of the Yanjiao slope are directly caused by the reservoir impoundment while the deformation area of the slope is affected by the combination of the rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuation.Based on mechanism of the Yanjiao slope,prestressed anchor combined with the surface drainage and slope unloading are recommended to prevent potential deformation.
基金primarily supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42025501,41905019,and 61827901)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2018YFC1506404 and Grant 2017YFC1501703)。
文摘During the pre-summer rainy season,heavy rainfall occurs frequently in South China.Based on polarimetric radar observations,the microphysical characteristics and processes of convective features associated with extreme rainfall rates(ERCFs)are examined.In the regions with high ERCF occurrence frequency,sub-regional differences are found in the lightning flash rate(LFR)distributions.In the region with higher LFRs,the ERCFs have larger volumes of high reflectivity factor above the freezing level,corresponding to more active riming processes.In addition,these ERCFs are more organized and display larger spatial coverage,which may be related to the stronger low-level wind shear and higher terrain in the region.In the region with lower LFRs,the ERCFs have lower echo tops and lower-echo centroids.However,no clear differences of the most unstable convective available potential energy(MUCAPE)exist in the ERCFs in the regions with different LFR characteristics.Regardless of the LFRs,raindrop collisional coalescence is the main process for the growth of raindrops in the ERCFs.In the ERCFs within the region with lower LFRs,the main mechanism for the rapid increase of liquid water content with decreasing altitude below 4 km is through the warm-rain processes converting cloud drops to raindrops.However,in those with higher LFRs,the liquid water content generally decreases with decreasing altitude.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1506801 and 2018YFF0300102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.42105013).
文摘A record-breaking heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan province during 19–21 July 2021 is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model,and the large-scale precipitation efficiency(LSPE)and cloud-microphysical precipitation efficiency(CMPE)of the rainfall are analyzed based on the model results.Then,the key physical factors that influenced LSPE and CMPE,and the possible mechanisms for the extreme rainfall over Zhengzhou are explored.Results show that water vapor flux convergence was the key factor that influenced LSPE.Water vapor was transported by the southeasterly winds between Typhoon In-Fa(2021)and the subtropical high,and the southerly flow of Typhoon Cempaka(2021),and converged in Zhengzhou due to the blocking by the Taihang and Funiu Mountains in western Henan province.Strong moisture convergence centers were formed on the windward slope of the mountains,which led to high LSPE in Zhengzhou.From the perspective of CMPE,the net consumption of water vapor by microphysical processes was the key factor that influenced CMPE.Quantitative budget analysis suggests that water vapor was mainly converted to cloud water and ice-phase particles and then transformed to raindrops through melting of graupel and accretion of cloud water by rainwater during the heavy precipitation stage.The dry intrusion in the middle and upper levels over Zhengzhou made the high potential vorticity descend from the upper troposphere and enhanced the convective instability.Moreover,the intrusion of cold and dry air resulted in the supersaturation and condensation of water vapor,which contributed to the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou.
基金supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
文摘Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating impacts.Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China.This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six months.The skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently significant.However,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño events.The potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.
基金the Research Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42277154)the project supported by graduate research and innovation foundation of Chongqing,China(No.CYB22023)+3 种基金Guizhou Province Science and Technology Planning Project(No.Guizhou science and technology cooperation support[2022]common 229)National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China(NSFC)(No.ZR2022ME188)the State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining,CUMT(No.SKLCRSM22KF009)Open Fund of National Engineering and Technology Research Center for Development and Utilization of Phosphate Resources of China(No.NECP 2022-04).
文摘Two critical factors,namely intense precipitation and intricate excavation,can trigger rock mass disasters in mining operations.In this study,an indoor rainfall system was developed to precisely regulate the flow and intensity of precipitation.A large-scale model experiment was conducted on a self-designed physical simulation experiment platform to investigate the failure and instability of high-steep rock slopes under unsaturated conditions.The real-time reproduction of the progressive failure process in high-steep rock slopes enabled the determination of the critical rainfall intensity and revealed the mechanism underlying slope instability.Experiment results indicated that rainfall may be the primary factor contributing to rock mass instability,while continuous pillar mining exacerbates the extent of rock mass failure.The critical failure stage of high-steep rock slopes occurs at a rainfall intensity of 40 mm/h,whereas a rainfall exceeding 50 mm can induce critical instability and precipitation reaching up to 60 mm will result in slope failure.The improved region growing segmentation method(IRGSM)was subsequently employed for image recognition of rock mass deformation in underground mines.Herein an error comparison with the simple linear iterative cluster(SLIC)superpixel method and the original region growing segmentation method(ORGSM)showed that the average identification error in the X and Y directions by the method was reduced significantly(1.82%and 1.80%in IRGSM;4.70%and 6.26%in SLIC;9.45%and 12.40%in ORGSM).Ultimately,the relationship between rainfall intensity and failure probability was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method.Moreover,the stability assessment criteria of rock slope under unsaturated condition were quantitatively and accurately evaluated.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1501803 and 2017YFC1502102)。
文摘Assimilation of the Advanced Geostationary Radiance Imager(AGRI)clear-sky radiance in a regional model is performed.The forecasting effectiveness of the assimilation of two water vapor(WV)channels with conventional observations for the“21·7”Henan extremely heavy rainfall is analyzed and compared with a baseline test that assimilates only conventional observations in this study.The results show that the 24-h cumulative precipitation forecast by the assimilation experiment with the addition of the AGRI exceeds 500 mm,compared to a maximum value of 532.6 mm measured by the national meteorological stations,and that the location of the maximum precipitation is consistent with the observations.The results for the short periods of intense precipitation processes are that the simulation of the location and intensity of the 3-h cumulative precipitation is also relatively accurate.The analysis increment shows that the main difference between the two sets of assimilation experiments is over the ocean due to the additional ocean observations provided by FY-4A,which compensates for the lack of ocean observations.The assimilation of satellite data adjusts the vertical and horizontal wind fields over the ocean by adjusting the atmospheric temperature and humidity,which ultimately results in a narrower and stronger WV transport path to the center of heavy precipitation in Zhengzhou in the lower troposphere.Conversely,the WV convergence and upward motion in the control experiment are more dispersed;therefore,the precipitation centers are also correspondingly more dispersed.
基金This research was funded by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M701650)the Excellent Youth Scholars of the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China(2021JJ20046)+1 种基金the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant 2021LASW-A01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42222505).
文摘The first long-term rainfall monitoring experiment using the commercial microwave links(CMLs)network in East China is introduced.The network,located in Jiangyin,Jiangsu Province,consists of 49 links with frequencies ranging from 15 GHz to 26 GHz and lengths from 1.14 km to 4.78 km.An OTT PARSIVEL disdrometer is deployed to refine the local rain-induced attenuation relationship,and the CML observations are compared simultaneously with five rain gauges.The inversion parameters of the CML are optimized by minimizing the error of the accumulated rainfall of historical rainfall events.The inversion results show that the daily accumulated rainfall retrieved by the CMLs agrees well with the rain gauge measurements.As an opportunistic approach to monitor near-surface rainfall with high spatiotemporal representativeness and accuracy,the CML network can be used to monitor and forecast urban flood disasters,especially in regions where the widepread deployment of conventional meteorological instruments is impractical.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41975138,41905047,42030610)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(2021B1212020016)+2 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515010814,2021A1515011415)Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020M01)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)。
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR),shear-line heavy rainfall(SR),and frontal heavy rainfall(FR)are three types of rainfall that frequently occur during the pre-summer rainy season in south China.In this research,we investigated the differences in microphysical characteristics of heavy rainfall events during the period of 10-15 May 2022 based on the combined observations from 11 S-band polarimetric radars in south China.The conclusions are as follows:(1)WR has the highest radar echo top height,the strongest radar echo at all altitudes,the highest lightning density,and the most active ice-phase process,which suggests that the convection is the most vigorous in the WR,moderate in the FR,and the weakest in the SR.(2)Three types of rainfall are all marine-type precipitation,the massweighted mean diameter(Dm,mm)and the intercept parameter(Nw,mm^(-1) m^(-3))of the raindrops in the WR are the largest.(3)The WR possesses the highest proportion of graupel compared with the FR and SR,and stronger updrafts and more abundant water vapor supply may lead to larger raindrops during the melting and collision-coalescence processes.(4)Over all the heights,liquid and ice water content in the WR are higher than those in the SR and FR,the ratio of ice to liquid water content in the WR is as high as 27%when ZH exceeds 50 dBZ,definitely higher than that in the SR and FR,indicating that the active ice-phase process existing in the WR is conducive to the formation of heavy rainfall.
基金supported by the Collaborative Research Program of the Alliance of International Science Organization(ANSO)(ANSOCR-KP-2021-09)CAS Interdisciplinary Innovation Team(xbzg-zdsys-202104)President’s International Fellowship Initiative(PIFI)visiting scientist grant for the Chinese Academy of Science(CAS)international talent(2023VCC0001,2024VEA0001)。
文摘Rainfall erosivity is an indicator of rainfall potential to cause soil erosion.The Melamchi extreme flood occurred on June-15 and recurred on July-31,2021 in Nepal.During these flooding events,a large volume of sediments were eroded,transported and deposited due to the high rainfall erosivity of the basin.In this study,the temporal and the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity within the Melamchi River Basin was estimated and further linked to sediment discharge and concentration at various sites along the river segments.The daily rainfall data for the event year 2021 of the entire basin were used.Validation was performed by post-flooding grain size sampling.The result showed that rainfall and rainfall erosivity exhibit pronounced intensity within the Melamchi River basin,particularly at Sermathang and Tarkeghang,both located in the middle section of the basin.The average annual rainfall in the Melamchi region was 3140.39 mm with an average annual erosivity of 18302.06(MJ mm)/(ha h yr).The average daily erosivity of the basin was 358.67(MJ mm)/(ha h)during the first event and 1241(MJ mm)/(ha h)for the second event.In the upper section of sampling,the sediment size ranged from 0.1 mm to>8 mm and was poorly graded.However,the lower region had smaller sediment ranging from 0.075 mm to>4.75 mm and also well graded.The smaller size(<1 mm)sediment passing was much higher in the Chanaute(78%)and Melamchi(66.5%)river segments but the larger size(>100 mm)sediments were passed relatively higher from the Kiwil(8.20%)and Ambathan(8.39%)river segments.During premonsoon and monsoon seasons,the highest sediment concentration was found to be 563.8 g/L and 344.3 g/L in Bhimtar and the lowest was 238.5 g/L and 132.1 g/L at the Ambathan,respectively.The sediment concentration during the pre-monsoon was found to be higher than the sediment concentration during the monsoon season in the Melamchi River.The more erosive regions in the basin were associated with the presence of highly fractured rock,weathered rocks and a thrust(weak)zone.The higher rainfall erosivity at upstream and the higher sediment concentration at downstream during flooding events have coincided well in the basin.Thus,the estimation of rainfall erosivity at the catchment scale and its influences on sediment concentration in the river are crucial for erosion control measures during flooding times in the Himalaya.
