Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty ...Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.展开更多
In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems...In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.展开更多
The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such probl...The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.展开更多
For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertaint...For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.展开更多
It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural perform...It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.展开更多
Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein...Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.展开更多
In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosenso...In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosensors communicate with receiving devices through relay nodes to improve their limited energy efficiency.When the relay node fails,the biosensor can communicate directly with the receiving device by releasing more transmitting power.However,if the remaining battery power of the biosensor is insufficient to enable it to communicate directly with the receiving device,the biosensor will be isolated by the system.Therefore,a new combinatorial analysis method is proposed to analyze the influence of random isolation time(RIT)on system reliability,and the competition relationship between biosensor isolation and propagation failure is considered.This approach inherits the advantages of common combinatorial algorithms and provides a new approach to effectively address the impact of RIT on system reliability in IoT systems,which are affected by competing failures.Finally,the method is applied to the BSN system,and the effect of RIT on the system reliability is analyzed in detail.展开更多
As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions ...As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.展开更多
The reliability analysis of vertically integrated protection devices is crucial for designing International Electrotechnical Commission(IEC)61850-based substations.This paper presents the hardware architecture of a fo...The reliability analysis of vertically integrated protection devices is crucial for designing International Electrotechnical Commission(IEC)61850-based substations.This paper presents the hardware architecture of a four-inone vertically integrated device and the information transmission path of each function based on the functional information transmission chain of protection devices,measurement and control devices,merging units,and intelligent terminals.Additionally,a reliability analysis model of the protection device and its protection system is constructed using the fault tree analysis method while considering the characteristics of each module of the vertically integrated device.The stability probability of the protection system in each state is analyzed by combining the state-transfer equations of line and busbar protection with a Markov chain.Finally,the failure rate and availability of the protection device and its protection system are calculated under different ambient temperatures using a 110 kV intelligent substation as an example.The sensitivity of each device module is analyzed.展开更多
A fractional-order cumulative optimization GM(1,2)model based on grey theory is proposed to study the relationship between torpedo loading and working reliabilities.In this model,the average relative error function re...A fractional-order cumulative optimization GM(1,2)model based on grey theory is proposed to study the relationship between torpedo loading and working reliabilities.In this model,the average relative error function related to order and background value is established.Taking the average relative error function as the objective function,the optimal value of the two parameters is obtained through the optimization method,and the minimum value of the average relative error is determined.The calculation example shows that this method can greatly improve the accuracy of the model and more accurately reflect the relationship between torpedo loading and working reliabilities compared with the traditional GM(1,2)model.展开更多
In this work,an improved active kriging method based on the AK-IS and truncated importance sampling(TIS)method is proposed to efficiently evaluate structural reliability.The novel method called AWK-TIS is inspired by ...In this work,an improved active kriging method based on the AK-IS and truncated importance sampling(TIS)method is proposed to efficiently evaluate structural reliability.The novel method called AWK-TIS is inspired by AK-IS and RBF-GA previously published in the literature.The innovation of the AWK-TIS is that TIS is adopted to lessen the sample pool size significantly,and the whale optimization algorithm(WOA)is employed to acquire the optimal Krigingmodel and themost probable point(MPP).To verify the performance of theAWK-TISmethod for structural reliability,four numerical cases which are utilized as benchmarks in literature and one real engineering problem about a jet van manipulate mechanism are tested.The results indicate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.展开更多
The nuclear fuel assembly is the core component of a nuclear reactor.In a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly,the top-connection structure connects the top nozzle to the guide thimble.Its performance reliability i...The nuclear fuel assembly is the core component of a nuclear reactor.In a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly,the top-connection structure connects the top nozzle to the guide thimble.Its performance reliability is essential for the stability of the nuclear fuel assembly.In this study,an assembly-oriented reliability analysis method for top-connection structures is presented by establishing an assembly-oriented top-connection structure parameter modeling method and a nonlinear contact gap and penetration correction method.A reliability model of the top-connection assembly structure,including multiple stochastic design variables,was constructed,and the overall reliability of the top-connection assembly structure was obtained via a Kriging model and Monte Carlo simulation.The acquired experimental data were consistent with real-world failure conditions,which verified the practicability and feasibility of the reliability analysis method proposed in this study.展开更多
A new extended exponential lifetime model called Harris extended-exponential(HEE)distribution for data modelling with increasing and decreasing hazard rate shapes has been considered.In the reliability context,researc...A new extended exponential lifetime model called Harris extended-exponential(HEE)distribution for data modelling with increasing and decreasing hazard rate shapes has been considered.In the reliability context,researchers prefer to use censoring plans to collect data in order to achieve a compromise between total test time and/or test sample size.So,this study considers both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates of the Harris extended-exponential distribution parameters and some of its reliability indices using a progressive Type-II censoring strategy.Under the premise of independent gamma priors,the Bayesian estimation is created using the squared-error and general entropy loss functions.Due to the challenging form of the joint posterior distribution,to evaluate the Bayes estimates,samples from the full conditional distributions are generated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.For each unknown parameter,the highest posterior density credible intervals and asymptotic confidence intervals are also determined.Through a simulated study,the usefulness of the various suggested strategies is assessed.The optimal progressive censoring plans are also shown,and various optimality criteria are investigated.Two actual data sets,taken from engineering and veterinary medicine areas,are analyzed to show how the offered point and interval estimators can be used in practice and to verify that the proposed model furnishes a good fit than other lifetimemodels:alpha power exponential,generalized-exponential,Nadarajah-Haghighi,Weibull,Lomax,gamma and exponential distributions.Numerical evaluations revealed that in the presence of progressively Type-II censored data,the Bayes estimation method against the squared-error(symmetric)loss is advised for getting the point and interval estimates of the HEE distribution.展开更多
The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works ...The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works focus on suggesting simplified reliability analysis methods for these dynamic networks.As one of the most popular modeling methodologies,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed.However,it is insufficient for the wireless communication network which contains temporal and non-temporal events.To this end,we present a modeling methodology for a generalized continuous time Bayesian network(CTBN)with a 2-state conditional probability table(CPT).Moreover,a comprehensive reliability analysis method for communication devices and radio propagation is suggested.The proposed methodology is verified by a reliability analysis of a real wireless communication network.展开更多
This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the infl...This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.展开更多
Slope reliability analysis considering inherent spatial variability(ISV)of soil properties is timeconsuming when response surface method(RSM)is used,because of the"curse of dimensionality".This paper propose...Slope reliability analysis considering inherent spatial variability(ISV)of soil properties is timeconsuming when response surface method(RSM)is used,because of the"curse of dimensionality".This paper proposes an effective method for identification of representative slip surfaces(RSSs)of slopes with spatially varied soils within the framework of limit equilibrium method(LEM),which utilizes an adaptive K-means clustering approach.Then,an improved slope reliability analysis based on the RSSs and RSM considering soil spatial variability,in perspective of computation efficiency,is established.The detailed implementation procedure of the proposed method is well documented,and the ability of the method in identifying RSSs and estimating reliability is investigated via three slope examples.Results show that the proposed method can automatically identify the RSSs of slope with only one evaluation of the conventional deterministic slope stability model.The RSSs are invariant with the statistics of soil properties,which allows parametric studies that are often required in slope reliability analysis to be efficiently achieved with ease.It is also found that the proposed method provides comparable values of factor of safety(FS)and probability of failure(Pf)of slopes with those obtained from direct analysis and lite rature.展开更多
In order to maintain the safety of underground constructions that significantly involve geo-material uncertainties,this paper delivers a new computation framework for conducting reliability-based design(RBD)of shallow...In order to maintain the safety of underground constructions that significantly involve geo-material uncertainties,this paper delivers a new computation framework for conducting reliability-based design(RBD)of shallow tunnel face stability,utilizing a simplified inverse first-order reliability method(FORM).The limit state functions defining tunnel face stability are established for both collapse and blow-out modes of the tunnel face failure,respectively,and the deterministic results of the tunnel face support pressure are obtained through three-dimensional finite element limit analysis(FELA).Because the inverse reliability method can directly capture the design support pressure according to prescribed target reliability index,the computational cost for probabilistic design of tunnel face stability is greatly reduced.By comparison with Monte Carlo simulation results,the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method are verified.Further,this study presents a series of reliability-based design charts for vividly understanding the limit support pressure on tunnel face in both cohesionless(sandy)soil and cohesive soil stratums,and their optimal support pressure ranges are highlighted.The results show that in the case of sandy soil stratum,the blowout failure of tunnel face is extremely unlikely,whereas the collapse is the only possible failure mode.The parametric study of various geotechnical uncertainties also reveals that ignoring the potential correlation between soil shear strength parameters will lead to over-designed support pressure,and the coefficient of variation of internal friction angle has a greater influence on the tunnel face failure probability than that of the cohesion.展开更多
The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to am...The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.展开更多
Numerical methods are helpful for understanding the behaviors of geotechnical installations.However,the computational cost sometimes may become prohibitive when structural reliability analysis is performed,due to repe...Numerical methods are helpful for understanding the behaviors of geotechnical installations.However,the computational cost sometimes may become prohibitive when structural reliability analysis is performed,due to repetitive calls to the deterministic solver.In this paper,we show how accurate and efficient reliability analyses of geotechnical installations can be performed by directly coupling geotechnical software with a reliability solver.An earth dam is used as the study object under different operating conditions.The limit equilibrium method of Morgenstern-Price is used to calculate factors of safety and find the critical slip surface.The conmercial software packages Seep/W and Slope/W are coupled with StRAnD structural reliability software.Reliability indices of critical probabilistic surfaces are evaluated by the first-and second-order structural reliability methods(FORM and SORM),as well as by importance sampling Monte Carlo(ISMC)simulation.By means of sensitivity analysis,the effective friction angle(φ′)is found to be the most relevant uncertain geotechnical parameter for dam equilibrium.The correlations between different geotechnical properties are shown to be relevant in terms of equilibrium reliability indices.Finally,it is shown herein that a critical slip surface,identified in terms of the minimum factor of safety(FS),is not the critical surface in terms of the reliability index.展开更多
In order to analyze the gear-rack reliability under the most serious limit loads which was the new-type transmission mechanism of aircraft slats,the gear-rack static strength under the single tooth meshing was analyze...In order to analyze the gear-rack reliability under the most serious limit loads which was the new-type transmission mechanism of aircraft slats,the gear-rack static strength under the single tooth meshing was analyzed based on the simulation and experiment. Then,it randomized the load of gear-rack based on the precise finite element analysis( FEA) model,and analyzed the static strength reliability of the gear-rack. Finally,the gear-rack under the most dangerous situation has not been destroyed and it also has a high reliability.展开更多
基金funding support from the China Scholarship Council(CSC).
文摘Spatial variability of soil properties imposes a challenge for practical analysis and design in geotechnical engineering.The latter is particularly true for slope stability assessment,where the effects of uncertainty are synthesized in the so-called probability of failure.This probability quantifies the reliability of a slope and its numerical calculation is usually quite involved from a numerical viewpoint.In view of this issue,this paper proposes an approach for failure probability assessment based on Latinized partially stratified sampling and maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The spatial variability of geotechnical properties is represented by means of random fields and the Karhunen-Loève expansion.Then,failure probabilities are estimated employing maximum entropy distribution with fractional moments.The application of the proposed approach is examined with two examples:a case study of an undrained slope and a case study of a slope with cross-correlated random fields of strength parameters under a drained slope.The results show that the proposed approach has excellent accuracy and high efficiency,and it can be applied straightforwardly to similar geotechnical engineering problems.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375238)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou(202201020213,202201020193,202201010399)GZHU-HKUST Joint Research Fund(YH202109).
文摘In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.52175130the Sichuan Science and Technology Program under Grants Nos.2022YFQ0087 and 2022JDJQ0024+1 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under Grant No.2022A1515240010the Students Go Abroad for Scientific Research and Internship Funding Program of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China.
文摘The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51875073).
文摘For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.
文摘It is necessary to pay particular attention to the uncertainties that exist in an engineering problem to reduce the risk of seismic damage of infrastructures against natural hazards.Moreover,certain structural performance levels should be satisfied during strong earthquakes.However,these performance levels have been only well described for aboveground structures.This study investigates the main uncertainties involved in the performance-based seismic analysis of a multi-story subway station.More than 100 pulse-like and no pulse-like ground motions have been selected.In this regard,an effective framework is presented,based on a set of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses performed by OpenSees code.The probabilistic seismic demand models for computing the free-field shear strain of soil and racking ratio of structure are proposed.These models result in less variability compared with existing relations,and make it possible to evaluate a wider range of uncertainties through reliability analysis in Rtx software using the Monte Carlo sampling method.This work is performed for three different structural performance levels(denoted as PL1ePL3).It is demonstrated that the error terms related to the magnitude and location of earthquake excitations and also the corresponding attenuation relationships have been the most important parameters.Therefore,using a faultestructure model would be inevitable for the reliability analysis of subway stations.It is found that the higher performance level(i.e.PL3)has more sensitivity to random variables than the others.In this condition,the pulse-like ground motions have a major contribution to the vulnerability of subway stations.
基金support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2021YFB2600605,2021YFB2600600)the Overseas Scholar Program in the Hebei Province(C20190514)+1 种基金from the State Key Laboratory of Mechanical Behavior and System Safety of Traffic Engineering Structures Project(ZZ2020-20)from the Youth Foundation of Hebei Science and Technology Research Project(QN2018108).
文摘Multiple failure modes tend to be identified in the reliability analysis of a redundant truss structure.This identification process involves updating the model for identifying the next potential failure members.Herein we intend to update the finite element model automatically in the identification process of failure modes and further perform the system reliability analysis efficiently.This study presents a framework that is implemented through the joint simulation of MATLAB and APDL and consists of three parts:reliability index of a single member,identification of dominant failure modes,and system-level reliability analysis for system reliability analysis of truss structures.Firstly,RSM(response surface method)combines with a constrained optimization model to calculate the reliability indices ofmembers.Then theβ-unzipping method is adopted to identify the dominant failuremodes,and the system function in MATLAB,as well as the EKILL command in APDL,is used to facilitate the automatic update of the finite element model and realize load-redistribution.Besides,the differential equivalence recursion algorithmis performed to approximate the reliability indices of failuremodes efficiently and accurately.Eventually,the PNET(probabilistic network evaluation technique)is used to calculate the joint failure probability as well as the system reliability index.Two illustrative examples demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed system reliability analysis framework through comparison with corresponding references.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(GrantNo.62172058)the Hunan ProvincialNatural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.2022JJ10052,2022JJ30624).
文摘In the Internet of Things(IoT)system,relay communication is widely used to solve the problem of energy loss in long-distance transmission and improve transmission efficiency.In Body Sensor Network(BSN)systems,biosensors communicate with receiving devices through relay nodes to improve their limited energy efficiency.When the relay node fails,the biosensor can communicate directly with the receiving device by releasing more transmitting power.However,if the remaining battery power of the biosensor is insufficient to enable it to communicate directly with the receiving device,the biosensor will be isolated by the system.Therefore,a new combinatorial analysis method is proposed to analyze the influence of random isolation time(RIT)on system reliability,and the competition relationship between biosensor isolation and propagation failure is considered.This approach inherits the advantages of common combinatorial algorithms and provides a new approach to effectively address the impact of RIT on system reliability in IoT systems,which are affected by competing failures.Finally,the method is applied to the BSN system,and the effect of RIT on the system reliability is analyzed in detail.
基金co-supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61833016)the Shaanxi Out-standing Youth Science Foundation(No.2020JC-34)+1 种基金the Shaanxi Science and Technology Innovation Team(No.2022TD-24)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.LH2021F038).
文摘As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.
基金supported by the 2020 Infrastructure Engineering Technology Innovation Projectthe“Intelligent Substation”Supporting Technology Research Project(031200WS22200001)。
文摘The reliability analysis of vertically integrated protection devices is crucial for designing International Electrotechnical Commission(IEC)61850-based substations.This paper presents the hardware architecture of a four-inone vertically integrated device and the information transmission path of each function based on the functional information transmission chain of protection devices,measurement and control devices,merging units,and intelligent terminals.Additionally,a reliability analysis model of the protection device and its protection system is constructed using the fault tree analysis method while considering the characteristics of each module of the vertically integrated device.The stability probability of the protection system in each state is analyzed by combining the state-transfer equations of line and busbar protection with a Markov chain.Finally,the failure rate and availability of the protection device and its protection system are calculated under different ambient temperatures using a 110 kV intelligent substation as an example.The sensitivity of each device module is analyzed.
文摘A fractional-order cumulative optimization GM(1,2)model based on grey theory is proposed to study the relationship between torpedo loading and working reliabilities.In this model,the average relative error function related to order and background value is established.Taking the average relative error function as the objective function,the optimal value of the two parameters is obtained through the optimization method,and the minimum value of the average relative error is determined.The calculation example shows that this method can greatly improve the accuracy of the model and more accurately reflect the relationship between torpedo loading and working reliabilities compared with the traditional GM(1,2)model.
基金supported by the Technical Basic Scientific Research Projects of State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defence,PRC (Grant No.JSZL2019204C001).
文摘In this work,an improved active kriging method based on the AK-IS and truncated importance sampling(TIS)method is proposed to efficiently evaluate structural reliability.The novel method called AWK-TIS is inspired by AK-IS and RBF-GA previously published in the literature.The innovation of the AWK-TIS is that TIS is adopted to lessen the sample pool size significantly,and the whale optimization algorithm(WOA)is employed to acquire the optimal Krigingmodel and themost probable point(MPP).To verify the performance of theAWK-TISmethod for structural reliability,four numerical cases which are utilized as benchmarks in literature and one real engineering problem about a jet van manipulate mechanism are tested.The results indicate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52075350)the Major Science and Technology Projects of Sichuan Province(No.2022ZDZX0001)the Special City School Strategic Cooperation Project of Sichuan University and Zigong(No.2021CDZG-3).
文摘The nuclear fuel assembly is the core component of a nuclear reactor.In a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly,the top-connection structure connects the top nozzle to the guide thimble.Its performance reliability is essential for the stability of the nuclear fuel assembly.In this study,an assembly-oriented reliability analysis method for top-connection structures is presented by establishing an assembly-oriented top-connection structure parameter modeling method and a nonlinear contact gap and penetration correction method.A reliability model of the top-connection assembly structure,including multiple stochastic design variables,was constructed,and the overall reliability of the top-connection assembly structure was obtained via a Kriging model and Monte Carlo simulation.The acquired experimental data were consistent with real-world failure conditions,which verified the practicability and feasibility of the reliability analysis method proposed in this study.
基金This research was funded by Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University Researchers Supporting Project Number(PNURSP2023R175),Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘A new extended exponential lifetime model called Harris extended-exponential(HEE)distribution for data modelling with increasing and decreasing hazard rate shapes has been considered.In the reliability context,researchers prefer to use censoring plans to collect data in order to achieve a compromise between total test time and/or test sample size.So,this study considers both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates of the Harris extended-exponential distribution parameters and some of its reliability indices using a progressive Type-II censoring strategy.Under the premise of independent gamma priors,the Bayesian estimation is created using the squared-error and general entropy loss functions.Due to the challenging form of the joint posterior distribution,to evaluate the Bayes estimates,samples from the full conditional distributions are generated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.For each unknown parameter,the highest posterior density credible intervals and asymptotic confidence intervals are also determined.Through a simulated study,the usefulness of the various suggested strategies is assessed.The optimal progressive censoring plans are also shown,and various optimality criteria are investigated.Two actual data sets,taken from engineering and veterinary medicine areas,are analyzed to show how the offered point and interval estimators can be used in practice and to verify that the proposed model furnishes a good fit than other lifetimemodels:alpha power exponential,generalized-exponential,Nadarajah-Haghighi,Weibull,Lomax,gamma and exponential distributions.Numerical evaluations revealed that in the presence of progressively Type-II censored data,the Bayes estimation method against the squared-error(symmetric)loss is advised for getting the point and interval estimates of the HEE distribution.
基金supported by the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(ZYGX2020ZB022)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775090).
文摘The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works focus on suggesting simplified reliability analysis methods for these dynamic networks.As one of the most popular modeling methodologies,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed.However,it is insufficient for the wireless communication network which contains temporal and non-temporal events.To this end,we present a modeling methodology for a generalized continuous time Bayesian network(CTBN)with a 2-state conditional probability table(CPT).Moreover,a comprehensive reliability analysis method for communication devices and radio propagation is suggested.The proposed methodology is verified by a reliability analysis of a real wireless communication network.
基金supported by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University through the project RU3Ythe Research Grant Council through the project PolyU 5128/13E+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51778313)Cooperative Innovation Center of Engineering Construction and Safety in Shangdong Blue Economic Zone
文摘This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.
基金The work described in this paper was nancially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51709258,51979270 and 41902291),the CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Pro-gram and the Research Foundation of Key Laboratory of Deep Geodrilling Technology,Ministry of Land and Resources,China(Grant No.F201801).
文摘Slope reliability analysis considering inherent spatial variability(ISV)of soil properties is timeconsuming when response surface method(RSM)is used,because of the"curse of dimensionality".This paper proposes an effective method for identification of representative slip surfaces(RSSs)of slopes with spatially varied soils within the framework of limit equilibrium method(LEM),which utilizes an adaptive K-means clustering approach.Then,an improved slope reliability analysis based on the RSSs and RSM considering soil spatial variability,in perspective of computation efficiency,is established.The detailed implementation procedure of the proposed method is well documented,and the ability of the method in identifying RSSs and estimating reliability is investigated via three slope examples.Results show that the proposed method can automatically identify the RSSs of slope with only one evaluation of the conventional deterministic slope stability model.The RSSs are invariant with the statistics of soil properties,which allows parametric studies that are often required in slope reliability analysis to be efficiently achieved with ease.It is also found that the proposed method provides comparable values of factor of safety(FS)and probability of failure(Pf)of slopes with those obtained from direct analysis and lite rature.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China[NSFC Grant Nos.51879091,52079045,41772287]support from the Key R&D Project of Zhejiang Province(2021C03159).
文摘In order to maintain the safety of underground constructions that significantly involve geo-material uncertainties,this paper delivers a new computation framework for conducting reliability-based design(RBD)of shallow tunnel face stability,utilizing a simplified inverse first-order reliability method(FORM).The limit state functions defining tunnel face stability are established for both collapse and blow-out modes of the tunnel face failure,respectively,and the deterministic results of the tunnel face support pressure are obtained through three-dimensional finite element limit analysis(FELA).Because the inverse reliability method can directly capture the design support pressure according to prescribed target reliability index,the computational cost for probabilistic design of tunnel face stability is greatly reduced.By comparison with Monte Carlo simulation results,the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method are verified.Further,this study presents a series of reliability-based design charts for vividly understanding the limit support pressure on tunnel face in both cohesionless(sandy)soil and cohesive soil stratums,and their optimal support pressure ranges are highlighted.The results show that in the case of sandy soil stratum,the blowout failure of tunnel face is extremely unlikely,whereas the collapse is the only possible failure mode.The parametric study of various geotechnical uncertainties also reveals that ignoring the potential correlation between soil shear strength parameters will lead to over-designed support pressure,and the coefficient of variation of internal friction angle has a greater influence on the tunnel face failure probability than that of the cohesion.
基金Project(51335003)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20111102110011)supported by the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China
文摘The fatigue life of aeroengine turbine disc presents great dispersion due to the randomness of the basic variables,such as applied load,working temperature,geometrical dimensions and material properties.In order to ameliorate reliability analysis efficiency without loss of reliability,the distributed collaborative response surface method(DCRSM) was proposed,and its basic theories were established in this work.Considering the failure dependency among the failure modes,the distributed response surface was constructed to establish the relationship between the failure mode and the relevant random variables.Then,the failure modes were considered as the random variables of system response to obtain the distributed collaborative response surface model based on structure failure criterion.Finally,the given turbine disc structure was employed to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the presented method.Through the comparison of DCRSM,Monte Carlo method(MCM) and the traditional response surface method(RSM),the results show that the computational precision for DCRSM is more consistent with MCM than RSM,while DCRSM needs far less computing time than MCM and RSM under the same simulation conditions.Thus,DCRSM is demonstrated to be a feasible and valid approach for improving the computational efficiency of reliability analysis for aeroengine turbine disc fatigue life with multiple random variables,and has great potential value for the complicated mechanical structure with multi-component and multi-failure mode.
基金financial support by the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel(CAPES)for research funding(Grant No.88882.145758/2017-01)the Brazilian National Council of Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq)。
文摘Numerical methods are helpful for understanding the behaviors of geotechnical installations.However,the computational cost sometimes may become prohibitive when structural reliability analysis is performed,due to repetitive calls to the deterministic solver.In this paper,we show how accurate and efficient reliability analyses of geotechnical installations can be performed by directly coupling geotechnical software with a reliability solver.An earth dam is used as the study object under different operating conditions.The limit equilibrium method of Morgenstern-Price is used to calculate factors of safety and find the critical slip surface.The conmercial software packages Seep/W and Slope/W are coupled with StRAnD structural reliability software.Reliability indices of critical probabilistic surfaces are evaluated by the first-and second-order structural reliability methods(FORM and SORM),as well as by importance sampling Monte Carlo(ISMC)simulation.By means of sensitivity analysis,the effective friction angle(φ′)is found to be the most relevant uncertain geotechnical parameter for dam equilibrium.The correlations between different geotechnical properties are shown to be relevant in terms of equilibrium reliability indices.Finally,it is shown herein that a critical slip surface,identified in terms of the minimum factor of safety(FS),is not the critical surface in terms of the reliability index.
文摘In order to analyze the gear-rack reliability under the most serious limit loads which was the new-type transmission mechanism of aircraft slats,the gear-rack static strength under the single tooth meshing was analyzed based on the simulation and experiment. Then,it randomized the load of gear-rack based on the precise finite element analysis( FEA) model,and analyzed the static strength reliability of the gear-rack. Finally,the gear-rack under the most dangerous situation has not been destroyed and it also has a high reliability.
