Wind energy has been widely utilized to alleviate the shortage of fossil resources.When wind power is integrated into the power grid on a large scale,the power grid’s stability is severely harmed due to the fluctuati...Wind energy has been widely utilized to alleviate the shortage of fossil resources.When wind power is integrated into the power grid on a large scale,the power grid’s stability is severely harmed due to the fluctuating and intermittent properties of wind speed.Accurate wind power forecasts help to formulate good operational strategies for wind farms.A short-term wind power forecasting method based on new hybrid model is proposed to increase the accuracy of wind power forecast.Firstly,wind power time series are separated using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise method to obtain multiple components,which are then predicted using a support vector regression machine model optimized through using the grid search and cross validation(GridSearchCV)algorithm.Secondly,a residual modification model based on temporal convolutional network is constructed,and variables with high correlation are selected as the input features of the model to predict the residuals of wind power.Finally,the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is compared to other models using the actual wind power data of the wind farm to demonstrate the validity of the described method,and the results reveal that the proposed method has better prediction performance.展开更多
Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is ...Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is a prerequisite for the effective development of international investment strategies.The purpose of this paper is to predict China’s OFDI accurately using a novel multivariable grey prediction model with Fourier series.Design/methodology/approach–This paper applied a multivariable grey prediction model,GM(1,N),to forecast China’s OFDI.In order to improve the prediction accuracy and without changing local characteristics of grey model prediction,this paper proposed a novel grey prediction model to improve the performance of the traditionalGM(1,N)modelbycombiningwithresidualmodificationmodelusingGM(1,1)modelandFourierseries.Findings–The coefficients indicate that the export and GDP have positive influence on China’s OFDI,and,according to the prediction result,China’s OFDI shows a growing trend in next five years.Originality/value–This paper proposed an effective multivariable grey prediction model that combined the traditionalGM(1,N)modelwitharesidualmodificationmodelinordertopredictChina’sOFDI.Accurateforecasting of OFDI provides reference for the Chinese Government to implement international investment strategies.展开更多
基金supported by National Defense Basic Research Program(JCKY2019407C002).
文摘Wind energy has been widely utilized to alleviate the shortage of fossil resources.When wind power is integrated into the power grid on a large scale,the power grid’s stability is severely harmed due to the fluctuating and intermittent properties of wind speed.Accurate wind power forecasts help to formulate good operational strategies for wind farms.A short-term wind power forecasting method based on new hybrid model is proposed to increase the accuracy of wind power forecast.Firstly,wind power time series are separated using the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise method to obtain multiple components,which are then predicted using a support vector regression machine model optimized through using the grid search and cross validation(GridSearchCV)algorithm.Secondly,a residual modification model based on temporal convolutional network is constructed,and variables with high correlation are selected as the input features of the model to predict the residuals of wind power.Finally,the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is compared to other models using the actual wind power data of the wind farm to demonstrate the validity of the described method,and the results reveal that the proposed method has better prediction performance.
文摘Purpose–With the development of economy,China’s OFDI constantly increase in recent year.Meanwhile,OFDI hasspillovereffectoneconomicdevelopmentandtechnologicaldevelopmentofhomecountry.Thus,accurateOFDI prediction is a prerequisite for the effective development of international investment strategies.The purpose of this paper is to predict China’s OFDI accurately using a novel multivariable grey prediction model with Fourier series.Design/methodology/approach–This paper applied a multivariable grey prediction model,GM(1,N),to forecast China’s OFDI.In order to improve the prediction accuracy and without changing local characteristics of grey model prediction,this paper proposed a novel grey prediction model to improve the performance of the traditionalGM(1,N)modelbycombiningwithresidualmodificationmodelusingGM(1,1)modelandFourierseries.Findings–The coefficients indicate that the export and GDP have positive influence on China’s OFDI,and,according to the prediction result,China’s OFDI shows a growing trend in next five years.Originality/value–This paper proposed an effective multivariable grey prediction model that combined the traditionalGM(1,N)modelwitharesidualmodificationmodelinordertopredictChina’sOFDI.Accurateforecasting of OFDI provides reference for the Chinese Government to implement international investment strategies.
