BACKGROUND The Khorana risk score(KRS)has poor predictive value for cancer-associated thrombosis in a single tumor type but is associated with early all-cause mortality from cancer.Evidence for the association between...BACKGROUND The Khorana risk score(KRS)has poor predictive value for cancer-associated thrombosis in a single tumor type but is associated with early all-cause mortality from cancer.Evidence for the association between KRS and all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer is limited.AIM To investigate whether KRS was independently related to all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer after adjusting for other covariates and to shed light on its temporal validity.METHODS Data from Dryad database were used in this study.Patients in the Gastroen-terology Department of Sapporo General Hospital,Sapporo,Japan,were enrolled.The starting and ending dates of the enrollment were January 1,2008 and January 5,2015,respectively.The cutoff date for follow-up was May 31,2016.The inde-pendent and dependent(target)variables were the baseline measured using the KRS and final all-cause mortality,respectively.The KRS was categorized into three groups:Low-risk group(=0 score),intermediate-risk group(1-2 score),and high-risk group(≥3 score).RESULTS Men and patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status(ECOG PS)≥2 displayed a higher 2-year risk of death than women and those with ECOG PS 0-1 in the intermediate/high risk group for KRS.The higher the score,the higher the risk of early death;however,the relevance of this independent prediction decreased with longer survival.The overall survival of each patient was recorded via real-world follow-up and retrospective observations,and this study yielded the overall relationship between KRS and all-cause mortality.CONCLUSION The prechemotherapy baseline of KRS was independently associated with all-cause mortality within 2 years;however,this independent predictive relationship weakened as survival time increased.展开更多
Genetic variations are associated with individual susceptibility to gastric cancer.Recently,polygenic risk score(PRS)models have been established based on genetic variants to predict the risk of gastric cancer.To asse...Genetic variations are associated with individual susceptibility to gastric cancer.Recently,polygenic risk score(PRS)models have been established based on genetic variants to predict the risk of gastric cancer.To assess the accuracy of current PRS models in the risk prediction,a systematic review was conducted.A total of eight eligible studies consisted of 544842 participants were included for evaluation of the performance of PRS models.The overall accuracy was moderate with Area under the curve values ranging from 0.5600 to 0.7823.Incorporation of epidemiological factors or Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)status increased the accuracy for risk prediction,while selection of single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)and number of SNPs appeared to have little impact on the model performance.To further improve the accuracy of PRS models for risk prediction of gastric cancer,we summarized the association between gastric cancer risk and H.pylori genomic variations,cancer associated bacteria members in the gastric microbiome,discussed the potentials for performance improvement of PRS models with these microbial factors.Future studies on comprehensive PRS models established with human SNPs,epidemiological factors and microbial factors are indicated.展开更多
Hypertension, obesity, smoking, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are the major risk factors for developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Recent studies revealed that taxi-motorbike drivers (TMDs) in Cotonou ha...Hypertension, obesity, smoking, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are the major risk factors for developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Recent studies revealed that taxi-motorbike drivers (TMDs) in Cotonou had higher rates of CVD risk factors, but their impacts on cardiovascular events have rarely been studied. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is an algorithm that considers CVD risk factors and estimates the risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years. Our objectives were to assess the 10-year CVD risk predicted by the FRS, and to examine the relationships of 10-year CVD risk with plasma iron and potassium levels among TMDs. We included 134 TMDs (22 - 59 years old) who had no prior diagnosis of CVD or T2D, and not taking medications affecting iron and potassium homeostasis. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors were used to calculate the 10-year CVD risk, which was categorized as low (20%). FRS > 2%, which corresponded to the 75th percentile of FRS distribution in our study population, was used as a cut-off value to classify participants into two groups. Plasma iron and potassium levels were segregated into tertiles and their associations with 10-year CVD risk were quantified by multivariate-adjusted logistic regression to calculate the odd ratios (ORs) to being above the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of 10-year CVD risk with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We found that 62.0% of participants had at least one of cardiovascular risk factors. Approximately 97.8% of TMDs had 10-year CVD risk 4.8 mmol/L led to an 83% risk reduction of having 10-year CVD risk > 2% (OR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.04 - 0.82, P = 0.027). In conclusion, our findings showed that high plasma potassium levels associate with reduced 10-year CVD risk among TMDs. Interventions focused on monitoring of plasma potassium, particularly in those with existing cardiovascular risk factors, may help prevent CVD.展开更多
BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hosp...BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hospital mortality,intervention(endoscopic or surgical)and length of admission(≥7 d).METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021.We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves(AUROCs)of Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),pre-endoscopic Rockall score(PERS),albumin,international normalized ratio,altered mental status,systolic blood pressure,age older than 65(AIMS65)and age,blood tests and comorbidities(ABC),including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts.We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model,if addition of lactate increased the score performance.RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group.AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group(AUROC=0.772;P<0.001),and ABC score(AUROC=0.775;P<0.001)in the non-variceal bleeding group.However,ABC score,at a cut-off value of 5.5,was the best predictor(AUROC=0.770,P=0.001)of inhospital mortality in both populations.PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment(AUC=0.604;P=0.046)in the variceal population,while GBS score,(AUROC=0.722;P=0.024),outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention.Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score,increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)and by 12-fold if added to GBS score(P<0.003).No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population.PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention,respectively.Lactate can be used as an additional tool to risk scores for predicting inhospital mortality.展开更多
Background Previous studies have demonstrated that micro RNA-204(mi R-204) is involved in atherosclerosis and vascular calcification. However, the value of mi R-204 as the predictive biomarker for cardiovascular disea...Background Previous studies have demonstrated that micro RNA-204(mi R-204) is involved in atherosclerosis and vascular calcification. However, the value of mi R-204 as the predictive biomarker for cardiovascular disease(CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the association between the circulating mi R-204 level and ten-year CVD risk based on the Framingham risk score(FRS). Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled 194 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) without CVD in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2015 and September 2016. We used the FRS to evaluate the risk of CVD for each patient. Circulating mi R-204 levels were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results Circulating mi R-204 levels were significantly lower in the group of patients(0.49 ± 0.13) at high risk of CVD(FRS > 20%) than in the low(FRS < 10%) and intermediate(FRS: 10%–20%) risk groups(0.87 ± 0.19 and 0.75 ± 0.25, respectively;P < 0.001). FRS was negatively correlated with mi R-204 levels(r =-0.421, P < 0.001). According to multivariate logistic analyses, reduced mi R-204 level was independently associated with an increased risk of CVD after adjusting for conventional risk factors(OR = 0.876, 95% CI: 0.807–0.950, P = 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the circulating mi R-204 level can predict the high risk of CVD with higher specificity than the traditional risk factor of high systolic blood pressure or the protective factor of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that patients with lower circulating mi R-204 levels were at high risk for CVD. After adjustment for potential confounders, mi R-204 was independently associated with CVD in patients with T2DM.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a common cancer with a poor prognosis.Previous studies revealed that the tumor microenvironment(TME)plays an important role in HCC progression,recurrence,and metastasis,leadi...BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a common cancer with a poor prognosis.Previous studies revealed that the tumor microenvironment(TME)plays an important role in HCC progression,recurrence,and metastasis,leading to poor prognosis.However,the effects of genes involved in TME on the prognosis of HCC patients remain unclear.Here,we investigated the HCC microenvironment to identify prognostic genes for HCC.AIM To identify a robust gene signature associated with the HCC microenvironment to improve prognosis prediction of HCC.METHODS We computed the immune/stromal scores of HCC patients obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas based on the ESTIMATE algorithm.Additionally,a risk score model was established based on Differentially Expressed Genes(DEGs)between high and lowimmune/stromal score patients.RESULTS The risk score model consisting of eight genes was constructed and validated in the HCC patients.The patients were divided into high-or low-risk groups.The genes(Disabled homolog 2,Musculin,C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 8,Galectin 3,B-cell-activating transcription factor,Killer cell lectin like receptor B1,Endoglin and adenomatosis polyposis coli tumor suppressor)involved in our risk score model were considered to be potential immunotherapy targets,and they may provide better performance in combination.Functional enrichment analysis showed that the immune response and T cell receptor signaling pathway represented the major function and pathway,respectively,related to the immune-related genes in the DEGs between high-and low-risk groups.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis confirmed the good potency of the risk score prognostic model.Moreover,we validated the risk score model using the International Cancer Genome Consortium and the Gene Expression Omnibus database.A nomogram was established to predict the overall survival of HCC patients.CONCLUSION The risk score model and the nomogram will benefit HCC patients through personalized immunotherapy.展开更多
BACKGROUND Disease-related single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs)based genetic risk score(GRS)has been proven to provide independent inherited risk other than family history in multiple cancer types.AIM To evaluate the...BACKGROUND Disease-related single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs)based genetic risk score(GRS)has been proven to provide independent inherited risk other than family history in multiple cancer types.AIM To evaluate the potential of GRS in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk.METHODS In this case-control study(254 cases and 1200 controls),we aimed to evaluate the association between GRS and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)risk in the Chinese population.The GRS was calculated based on the genotype information of 18 PDAC-related SNPs for each study subject(personal genotyping information of the SNPs)and was weighted by external odd ratios(ORs).RESULTS GRS was significantly different in cases and controls(1.96±3.84 in PDACs vs 1.09±0.94 in controls,P<0.0001).Logistic regression revealed GRS to be associated with PDAC risk[OR=1.23,95%confidence interval(CI):1.13-1.34,P<0.0001].GRS remained significantly associated with PDAC(OR=1.36,95%CI:1.06-1.74,P=0.015)after adjusting for age and sex.Further analysis revealed an association of increased risk for PDAC with higher GRS.Compared with low GRS(<1.0),subjects with high GRS(2.0)were 99%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.99,95%CI:1.30-3.04,P=0.002).Participants with intermediate GRS(1.0-1.9)were 39%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.39,95%CI:1.03-1.84,P=0.031).A positive trend was observed(P trend=0.0006).CONCLUSION GRS based on PDAC-associated SNPs could provide independent information on PDAC risk and may be used to predict a high risk PDAC population.展开更多
The Systemic Arterial Hypertension (SAH) stands out among the chronic non-transmissible pathologies that impact the cause and/or aggravation of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) on a global level, as the disease is an und...The Systemic Arterial Hypertension (SAH) stands out among the chronic non-transmissible pathologies that impact the cause and/or aggravation of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) on a global level, as the disease is an underestimated disorder due to non-perceptive symptoms and associated with factors and risk markers of another CVD. Therefore, establishing the risk of progression and aggravation of the SAH, according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), allows to reducing morbidity and improving preventative measures for DCVs. This observational and transversal study approaches the data collection of patient records at the Health Family Strategy of Senhor do Bonfim, BA, which established differences by descriptive and inferential statistical analysis (correlation and regression). The aspects of hypertension associated with risk factors for atherosclerosis were analyzed, determining the risk of developing cardiovascular events in 10 years by FRS. From 432 families, 746 patients were selected, of which 340 are hypertensive individuals (SAH = 45.57%) and 406 (NSAH = 54.42%) non-hypertensives. Among the SAH the majority (31.17%) was in the age range of 63 - 77, but, in both groups, women were in stronger number. There was greater prevalence in SAH for all the characteristics analyzed, smoking (13.20%), sedentary (29.41%) and cardiovascular accident (22.60%). The SAH group is more susceptive to the CVD progress in 10 years by FRS (P < 0.0001 ANOVA). In the NSAH group, there were significant associations among all the variables analyzed as was expected, without differences between the linear correlation and regression, indicating the physio-metabolic equilibrium of the factors and markers evaluated by FRS. Already in SAH group, despite the correlations have been significant too, the regression analysis revealed that only Total Cholesterol (P = 0.0086);LDL (P < 0.0001), Glucose (P < 0.0006) and Age (P < 0.0001) have significative association with FRS. So, these factors and markers deserve more attention upon the health staff of Health Family Strategy, in the SAH course at studied population, attempt the highest cardiovascular risk by FRS (2.5 to 2.8 times) to SAH. The monitoring of high-risk patients should prioritize the lifestyle changes, employing preventive measures to SAH and CVD and atherosclerosis.展开更多
Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate,motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinician...Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate,motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients.Here,we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital,Wuhan,China(development cohort)and externally validated with data from two other centers:141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital,Wuhan,China(validation cohort 1)and 432 inpatients from The Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen,Shenzhen,China(validation cohort 2).The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death.The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90%accuracy across all cohorts.Moreover,the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low,intermediate,or high risk,with an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.9551.In summary,a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2);it has also been validated in independent cohorts.展开更多
BACKGROUND Bleedings are an independent risk factor for subsequent mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes(ACS)and in those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.This represents a hazard equivalent...BACKGROUND Bleedings are an independent risk factor for subsequent mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes(ACS)and in those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.This represents a hazard equivalent to or greater than that for recurrent ACS.Dual antiplatelet therapy(DAPT)represents the cornerstone in the secondary prevention of thrombotic events,but the benefit of such therapy is counteracted by the increased hemorrhagic complications.Therefore,an early and individualized patient risk stratification can help to identify high-risk patients who could benefit the most from intensive medical therapies while minimizing unnecessary treatment complications in low-risk patients.AIM To review existing literature and gain better understanding of the role of ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores in patients with ischemic heart disease(IHD).METHODS We used a combination of terms potentially used in literature describing the most common ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores to search in PubMed as well as references of full-length articles.RESULTS In this review we briefly describe the most important ischemic and bleeding scores that can be adopted in patients with IHD,focusing on GRACE,CHA2DS2-Vasc,PARIS CTE,DAPT,CRUSADE,ACUITY,HAS-BLED,PARIS MB and PRECISE-DAPT score.In the second part of this review,we try to define a possible approach to the IHD patient,using the most suitable scores to stratify patient risk and decide the most appropriate patient treatment.CONCLUSION It becomes evident that risk scores by themselves can’t be the solution to balance the ischemic/bleeding risk of an IHD patient.Instead,some risk factors that are commonly associated with an elevated risk profile and that are already included in risk scores should be the focus of the clinician while he/she is taking care of a patient affected by IHD.展开更多
BACKGROUND Genetic variants of Helicobacter pylori(H. pylori) are involved in gastric cancer occurrence. Single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs) of H. pylori that are associated with gastric cancer have been reported. T...BACKGROUND Genetic variants of Helicobacter pylori(H. pylori) are involved in gastric cancer occurrence. Single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs) of H. pylori that are associated with gastric cancer have been reported. The combined effect of H. pylori SNPs on the risk of gastric cancer remains unclear.AIM To assess the performance of a polygenic risk score(PRS) based on H. pylori SNPs in predicting the risk of gastric cancer.METHODS A total of 15 gastric cancer-associated H. pylori SNPs were selected. The associations between these SNPs and gastric cancer were further validated in 1022 global strains with publicly available genome sequences. The PRS model was established based on the validated SNPs. The performance of the PRS for predicting the risk of gastric cancer was assessed in global strains using quintiles and random forest(RF) methods. The variation in the performance of the PRS among different populations of H. pylori was further examined.RESULTS Analyses of the association between selected SNPs and gastric cancer in the global dataset revealed that the risk allele frequencies of six SNPs were significantly higher in gastric cancer cases than non-gastric cancer cases. The PRS model constructed subsequently with these validated SNPs produced significantly higher scores in gastric cancer. The odds ratio(OR) value for gastric cancer gradually increased from the first to the fifth quintile of PRS, with the fifth quintile having an OR value as high as 9.76(95% confidence interval: 5.84-16.29). The results of RF analyses indicated that the area under the curve(AUC) value for classifying gastric cancer and non-gastric cancer was 0.75, suggesting that the PRS based on H. pylori SNPs was capable of predicting the risk of gastric cancer. Assessing the performance of the PRS among different H. pylori populations demonstrated that it had good predictive power for cancer risk for hp Europe strains, with an AUC value of 0.78.CONCLUSION The PRS model based on H. pylori SNPs had a good performance for assessment of gastric cancer risk. It would be useful in the prediction of final consequences of the H. pylori infection and beneficial for the management of the infection in clinical settings.展开更多
BACKGROUND Although early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG)with cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB)are rare,the associated mortality remains high.AIM To develop a risk score for the predictio...BACKGROUND Although early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG)with cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB)are rare,the associated mortality remains high.AIM To develop a risk score for the prediction of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.METHODS This retrospective study was performed in the Federal State Budgetary Establishment“Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery”of the Ministry of Health of Russia(the city of Chelyabinsk)and included data of 6586 patients who underwent CABG with CPB during 2011-2017.The risk factors taken for evaluation were compared between patients with early abdominal complications(n=73)and without them(n=6513).We identified the most important risk factors and their influence on the development of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.RESULTS Gender and the presence of postinfarction cardiosclerosis,chronic kidney disease,or diabetes in the anamnesis did not affect the occurrence of abdominal complications.The leading risk factors of the early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB were multifocal atherosclerosis,extracorporeal membrane oxygenation,intra-aortic balloon pump,atrial fibrillation,perioperative myocardial infarction,and the need for resternotomy in the postoperative period.The average value of the predicted probability was 0.087±0.015 in patients with early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and 0.0094±0.0003 in patients without these complications.The percentage of correct classification turned out to be 98.9%.After calculating a score for each of the leading risk factors,we counted a total score for each particular patient.The highest risk was noted in patients with a total score of 7 or more.CONCLUSION The developed score predicts the risk of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and makes it possible to stratify patients by risk groups.展开更多
Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics-based predictive risk score(RPRS) for preoperative prediction of lymph node(LN) metastasis in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC).Methods: We retro...Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics-based predictive risk score(RPRS) for preoperative prediction of lymph node(LN) metastasis in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC).Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 717 who underwent surgical resection for primary NSCLC with systematic mediastinal lymphadenectomy from October 2007 to July 2016. By using the method of radiomics analysis, 591 computed tomography(CT)-based radiomics features were extracted, and the radiomics-based classifier was constructed. Then, using multivariable logistic regression analysis, a weighted score RPRS was derived to identify LN metastasis. Apparent prediction performance of RPRS was assessed with its calibration,discrimination, and clinical usefulness.Results: The radiomics-based classifier was constructed, which consisted of 13 selected radiomics features.Multivariate models demonstrated that radiomics-based classifier, age group, tumor diameter, tumor location, and CT-based LN status were independent predictors. When we assigned the corresponding score to each variable,patients with RPRSs of 0-3, 4-5, 6, 7-8, and 9 had distinctly very low(0%-20%), low(21%-40%), intermediate(41%-60%), high(61%-80%), and very high(81%-100%) risks of LN involvement, respectively. The developed RPRS showed good discrimination and satisfactory calibration (C-index: 0.785, 95% confidence interval(95% CI):0.780-0.790)Additionally, RPRS outperformed the clinicopathologic-based characteristics model with net reclassification index(NRI) of 0.711(95% CI: 0.555-0.867).Conclusions: The novel clinical scoring system developed as RPRS can serve as an easy-to-use tool to facilitate the preoperatively individualized prediction of LN metastasis in patients with resectable NSCLC. This stratification of patients according to their LN status may provide a basis for individualized treatment.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.展开更多
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the compli-cations, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need ...Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the compli-cations, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score(GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact.展开更多
AIM: To assess the performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score(FINDRISC) questionnaire for detecting and predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM2) in a Colombian population.METHODS: This is a longitudinal observatio...AIM: To assess the performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score(FINDRISC) questionnaire for detecting and predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM2) in a Colombian population.METHODS: This is a longitudinal observational study conducted in Floridablanca, Colombia. Adult subjects(age ≥ 35 years) without known diabetes, were included. A modified version of FINDRISC was completed, and the glycemia values from all the subjects were collected from the hospital's database. Firstly, a cross-sectional analysis was performed and then, the subsample of prediabetic participants was followed for diabetes incidence. RESULTS: A total of 772 subjects were suitable for the study. The overall prevalence of undiagnosed DM2 was 2.59%, and the incidence of DM2 among the prediabetic participants was 7.5 per 100 person-years after a total of 265257 person-years follow-up. The FINDRISC at baseline was significantly associated with undiagnosed and incident DM2. The area under receiver operating characteristics curve of the FINDRISC score for detecting undiagnosed DM2 in both men and women was 0.7477 and 0.7175, respectively; and for predicting the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics was 71.99% in men and 67.74% in women. CONCLUSION: The FINDRISC questionnaire is a useful screening tool to identify cross-sectionally unknown DM2 and to predict the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics in the Colombian population.展开更多
Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death,and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources alloc...Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death,and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation,avoiding the overtreatment of low-risk subjects or the early,inappropriate discharge of high-risk patients. Many clinical scores have been derived and validated for in-hospital and post-discharge survival; predictive models include demographic,clinical,hemodynamic and laboratory variables. Data sets are derived from public registries,clinical trials,and retrospective data. Most models show a good capacity to discriminate patients who reach major clinical end-points,with C-indices generally higher than 0.70,but their applicability in realworld populations has been seldom evaluated. No study has evaluated if the use of risk score-based stratification might improve patient outcome. Some variables(age,blood pressure,sodium concentration,renal function) recur in most scores and should always be considered when evaluating the risk of an individual patient hospitalized for acute heart failure. Future studies will evaluate the emerging role of plasma biomarkers.展开更多
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) has a prevalence of approximately 30% in western countries, and is emerging as the first cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Therefore, risk stratificat...Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) has a prevalence of approximately 30% in western countries, and is emerging as the first cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Therefore, risk stratification emerges as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources, and genetics displays intrinsic characteristics suitable to fulfill this task. According to the available data, heritability estimates for hepatic fat content range from 20% to 70%, and an almost 80% of shared heritability has been found between hepatic fat content and fibrosis. The rs738409 single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 gene and the rs58542926 SNP in transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 gene have been robustly associated with NAFLD and with its progression, but promising results have been obtained with many other SNPs. Moreover, there has been proof of the additive role of the different SNPs in determining liver damage, and there have been preliminary experiences in which risk scores created through a few genetic variants, alone or in combination with clinical variables, were associated with a strongly potentiated risk of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH), NASH fibrosis or NAFLD-HCC. However, to date, clinical translation of genetics in the field of NAFLD has been poor or absent. Fortunately, the research we have done seems to have placed us on the right path: We should rely on longitudinal rather than on cross-sectional studies; we should focus on relevant outcomes rather than on simple liver fat accumulation; and we should put together the genetic and clinical information. The hope is that combined genetic/clinical scores, derived from longitudinal studies and built on a few strong genetic variants and relevant clinical variables, will reach a significant predictive power, such as to have clinical utility for risk stratification at the single patient level and even to esteem the impact of intervention on the risk of disease-related outcomes. Well-structured future studies would demonstrate if this vision can become a reality.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND The Khorana risk score(KRS)has poor predictive value for cancer-associated thrombosis in a single tumor type but is associated with early all-cause mortality from cancer.Evidence for the association between KRS and all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer is limited.AIM To investigate whether KRS was independently related to all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer after adjusting for other covariates and to shed light on its temporal validity.METHODS Data from Dryad database were used in this study.Patients in the Gastroen-terology Department of Sapporo General Hospital,Sapporo,Japan,were enrolled.The starting and ending dates of the enrollment were January 1,2008 and January 5,2015,respectively.The cutoff date for follow-up was May 31,2016.The inde-pendent and dependent(target)variables were the baseline measured using the KRS and final all-cause mortality,respectively.The KRS was categorized into three groups:Low-risk group(=0 score),intermediate-risk group(1-2 score),and high-risk group(≥3 score).RESULTS Men and patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status(ECOG PS)≥2 displayed a higher 2-year risk of death than women and those with ECOG PS 0-1 in the intermediate/high risk group for KRS.The higher the score,the higher the risk of early death;however,the relevance of this independent prediction decreased with longer survival.The overall survival of each patient was recorded via real-world follow-up and retrospective observations,and this study yielded the overall relationship between KRS and all-cause mortality.CONCLUSION The prechemotherapy baseline of KRS was independently associated with all-cause mortality within 2 years;however,this independent predictive relationship weakened as survival time increased.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.31870777.
文摘Genetic variations are associated with individual susceptibility to gastric cancer.Recently,polygenic risk score(PRS)models have been established based on genetic variants to predict the risk of gastric cancer.To assess the accuracy of current PRS models in the risk prediction,a systematic review was conducted.A total of eight eligible studies consisted of 544842 participants were included for evaluation of the performance of PRS models.The overall accuracy was moderate with Area under the curve values ranging from 0.5600 to 0.7823.Incorporation of epidemiological factors or Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)status increased the accuracy for risk prediction,while selection of single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)and number of SNPs appeared to have little impact on the model performance.To further improve the accuracy of PRS models for risk prediction of gastric cancer,we summarized the association between gastric cancer risk and H.pylori genomic variations,cancer associated bacteria members in the gastric microbiome,discussed the potentials for performance improvement of PRS models with these microbial factors.Future studies on comprehensive PRS models established with human SNPs,epidemiological factors and microbial factors are indicated.
文摘Hypertension, obesity, smoking, dyslipidemia, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are the major risk factors for developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Recent studies revealed that taxi-motorbike drivers (TMDs) in Cotonou had higher rates of CVD risk factors, but their impacts on cardiovascular events have rarely been studied. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is an algorithm that considers CVD risk factors and estimates the risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years. Our objectives were to assess the 10-year CVD risk predicted by the FRS, and to examine the relationships of 10-year CVD risk with plasma iron and potassium levels among TMDs. We included 134 TMDs (22 - 59 years old) who had no prior diagnosis of CVD or T2D, and not taking medications affecting iron and potassium homeostasis. Conventional cardiovascular risk factors were used to calculate the 10-year CVD risk, which was categorized as low (20%). FRS > 2%, which corresponded to the 75th percentile of FRS distribution in our study population, was used as a cut-off value to classify participants into two groups. Plasma iron and potassium levels were segregated into tertiles and their associations with 10-year CVD risk were quantified by multivariate-adjusted logistic regression to calculate the odd ratios (ORs) to being above the 75<sup>th</sup> percentile of 10-year CVD risk with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We found that 62.0% of participants had at least one of cardiovascular risk factors. Approximately 97.8% of TMDs had 10-year CVD risk 4.8 mmol/L led to an 83% risk reduction of having 10-year CVD risk > 2% (OR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.04 - 0.82, P = 0.027). In conclusion, our findings showed that high plasma potassium levels associate with reduced 10-year CVD risk among TMDs. Interventions focused on monitoring of plasma potassium, particularly in those with existing cardiovascular risk factors, may help prevent CVD.
文摘BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hospital mortality,intervention(endoscopic or surgical)and length of admission(≥7 d).METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021.We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves(AUROCs)of Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),pre-endoscopic Rockall score(PERS),albumin,international normalized ratio,altered mental status,systolic blood pressure,age older than 65(AIMS65)and age,blood tests and comorbidities(ABC),including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts.We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model,if addition of lactate increased the score performance.RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group.AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group(AUROC=0.772;P<0.001),and ABC score(AUROC=0.775;P<0.001)in the non-variceal bleeding group.However,ABC score,at a cut-off value of 5.5,was the best predictor(AUROC=0.770,P=0.001)of inhospital mortality in both populations.PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment(AUC=0.604;P=0.046)in the variceal population,while GBS score,(AUROC=0.722;P=0.024),outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention.Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score,increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)and by 12-fold if added to GBS score(P<0.003).No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population.PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention,respectively.Lactate can be used as an additional tool to risk scores for predicting inhospital mortality.
基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China (No. 81573744 & No. 81973841)。
文摘Background Previous studies have demonstrated that micro RNA-204(mi R-204) is involved in atherosclerosis and vascular calcification. However, the value of mi R-204 as the predictive biomarker for cardiovascular disease(CVD) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the association between the circulating mi R-204 level and ten-year CVD risk based on the Framingham risk score(FRS). Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled 194 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) without CVD in Beijing Anzhen Hospital between January 2015 and September 2016. We used the FRS to evaluate the risk of CVD for each patient. Circulating mi R-204 levels were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results Circulating mi R-204 levels were significantly lower in the group of patients(0.49 ± 0.13) at high risk of CVD(FRS > 20%) than in the low(FRS < 10%) and intermediate(FRS: 10%–20%) risk groups(0.87 ± 0.19 and 0.75 ± 0.25, respectively;P < 0.001). FRS was negatively correlated with mi R-204 levels(r =-0.421, P < 0.001). According to multivariate logistic analyses, reduced mi R-204 level was independently associated with an increased risk of CVD after adjusting for conventional risk factors(OR = 0.876, 95% CI: 0.807–0.950, P = 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the circulating mi R-204 level can predict the high risk of CVD with higher specificity than the traditional risk factor of high systolic blood pressure or the protective factor of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions Our study demonstrated that patients with lower circulating mi R-204 levels were at high risk for CVD. After adjustment for potential confounders, mi R-204 was independently associated with CVD in patients with T2DM.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81972255,No.81772597 and No.81672412Guangdong Natural Science Foundation,No.2017A030311002+4 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Foundation,No.2017A020215196Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Sun YatSen University,No.17ykpy44Science Foundation of Jiangxi,No.20181BAB214002Education Department Science and Technology Foundation of Jiangxi,No.GJJ170936Grant from Guangdong Science and Technology Department,No.2017B030314026
文摘BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)is a common cancer with a poor prognosis.Previous studies revealed that the tumor microenvironment(TME)plays an important role in HCC progression,recurrence,and metastasis,leading to poor prognosis.However,the effects of genes involved in TME on the prognosis of HCC patients remain unclear.Here,we investigated the HCC microenvironment to identify prognostic genes for HCC.AIM To identify a robust gene signature associated with the HCC microenvironment to improve prognosis prediction of HCC.METHODS We computed the immune/stromal scores of HCC patients obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas based on the ESTIMATE algorithm.Additionally,a risk score model was established based on Differentially Expressed Genes(DEGs)between high and lowimmune/stromal score patients.RESULTS The risk score model consisting of eight genes was constructed and validated in the HCC patients.The patients were divided into high-or low-risk groups.The genes(Disabled homolog 2,Musculin,C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 8,Galectin 3,B-cell-activating transcription factor,Killer cell lectin like receptor B1,Endoglin and adenomatosis polyposis coli tumor suppressor)involved in our risk score model were considered to be potential immunotherapy targets,and they may provide better performance in combination.Functional enrichment analysis showed that the immune response and T cell receptor signaling pathway represented the major function and pathway,respectively,related to the immune-related genes in the DEGs between high-and low-risk groups.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis confirmed the good potency of the risk score prognostic model.Moreover,we validated the risk score model using the International Cancer Genome Consortium and the Gene Expression Omnibus database.A nomogram was established to predict the overall survival of HCC patients.CONCLUSION The risk score model and the nomogram will benefit HCC patients through personalized immunotherapy.
文摘BACKGROUND Disease-related single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs)based genetic risk score(GRS)has been proven to provide independent inherited risk other than family history in multiple cancer types.AIM To evaluate the potential of GRS in the prediction of pancreatic cancer risk.METHODS In this case-control study(254 cases and 1200 controls),we aimed to evaluate the association between GRS and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma(PDAC)risk in the Chinese population.The GRS was calculated based on the genotype information of 18 PDAC-related SNPs for each study subject(personal genotyping information of the SNPs)and was weighted by external odd ratios(ORs).RESULTS GRS was significantly different in cases and controls(1.96±3.84 in PDACs vs 1.09±0.94 in controls,P<0.0001).Logistic regression revealed GRS to be associated with PDAC risk[OR=1.23,95%confidence interval(CI):1.13-1.34,P<0.0001].GRS remained significantly associated with PDAC(OR=1.36,95%CI:1.06-1.74,P=0.015)after adjusting for age and sex.Further analysis revealed an association of increased risk for PDAC with higher GRS.Compared with low GRS(<1.0),subjects with high GRS(2.0)were 99%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.99,95%CI:1.30-3.04,P=0.002).Participants with intermediate GRS(1.0-1.9)were 39%more likely to have PDAC(OR:1.39,95%CI:1.03-1.84,P=0.031).A positive trend was observed(P trend=0.0006).CONCLUSION GRS based on PDAC-associated SNPs could provide independent information on PDAC risk and may be used to predict a high risk PDAC population.
文摘The Systemic Arterial Hypertension (SAH) stands out among the chronic non-transmissible pathologies that impact the cause and/or aggravation of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) on a global level, as the disease is an underestimated disorder due to non-perceptive symptoms and associated with factors and risk markers of another CVD. Therefore, establishing the risk of progression and aggravation of the SAH, according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), allows to reducing morbidity and improving preventative measures for DCVs. This observational and transversal study approaches the data collection of patient records at the Health Family Strategy of Senhor do Bonfim, BA, which established differences by descriptive and inferential statistical analysis (correlation and regression). The aspects of hypertension associated with risk factors for atherosclerosis were analyzed, determining the risk of developing cardiovascular events in 10 years by FRS. From 432 families, 746 patients were selected, of which 340 are hypertensive individuals (SAH = 45.57%) and 406 (NSAH = 54.42%) non-hypertensives. Among the SAH the majority (31.17%) was in the age range of 63 - 77, but, in both groups, women were in stronger number. There was greater prevalence in SAH for all the characteristics analyzed, smoking (13.20%), sedentary (29.41%) and cardiovascular accident (22.60%). The SAH group is more susceptive to the CVD progress in 10 years by FRS (P < 0.0001 ANOVA). In the NSAH group, there were significant associations among all the variables analyzed as was expected, without differences between the linear correlation and regression, indicating the physio-metabolic equilibrium of the factors and markers evaluated by FRS. Already in SAH group, despite the correlations have been significant too, the regression analysis revealed that only Total Cholesterol (P = 0.0086);LDL (P < 0.0001), Glucose (P < 0.0006) and Age (P < 0.0001) have significative association with FRS. So, these factors and markers deserve more attention upon the health staff of Health Family Strategy, in the SAH course at studied population, attempt the highest cardiovascular risk by FRS (2.5 to 2.8 times) to SAH. The monitoring of high-risk patients should prioritize the lifestyle changes, employing preventive measures to SAH and CVD and atherosclerosis.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia from the Department of Science and Technology of Hubei Province(2020FCA035)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Huazhong University of Science and Technology(2020kfyXGYJ023).
文摘Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate,motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients.Here,we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital,Wuhan,China(development cohort)and externally validated with data from two other centers:141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital,Wuhan,China(validation cohort 1)and 432 inpatients from The Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen,Shenzhen,China(validation cohort 2).The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death.The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90%accuracy across all cohorts.Moreover,the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low,intermediate,or high risk,with an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.9551.In summary,a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2);it has also been validated in independent cohorts.
文摘BACKGROUND Bleedings are an independent risk factor for subsequent mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes(ACS)and in those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.This represents a hazard equivalent to or greater than that for recurrent ACS.Dual antiplatelet therapy(DAPT)represents the cornerstone in the secondary prevention of thrombotic events,but the benefit of such therapy is counteracted by the increased hemorrhagic complications.Therefore,an early and individualized patient risk stratification can help to identify high-risk patients who could benefit the most from intensive medical therapies while minimizing unnecessary treatment complications in low-risk patients.AIM To review existing literature and gain better understanding of the role of ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores in patients with ischemic heart disease(IHD).METHODS We used a combination of terms potentially used in literature describing the most common ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores to search in PubMed as well as references of full-length articles.RESULTS In this review we briefly describe the most important ischemic and bleeding scores that can be adopted in patients with IHD,focusing on GRACE,CHA2DS2-Vasc,PARIS CTE,DAPT,CRUSADE,ACUITY,HAS-BLED,PARIS MB and PRECISE-DAPT score.In the second part of this review,we try to define a possible approach to the IHD patient,using the most suitable scores to stratify patient risk and decide the most appropriate patient treatment.CONCLUSION It becomes evident that risk scores by themselves can’t be the solution to balance the ischemic/bleeding risk of an IHD patient.Instead,some risk factors that are commonly associated with an elevated risk profile and that are already included in risk scores should be the focus of the clinician while he/she is taking care of a patient affected by IHD.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No. 31870777。
文摘BACKGROUND Genetic variants of Helicobacter pylori(H. pylori) are involved in gastric cancer occurrence. Single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs) of H. pylori that are associated with gastric cancer have been reported. The combined effect of H. pylori SNPs on the risk of gastric cancer remains unclear.AIM To assess the performance of a polygenic risk score(PRS) based on H. pylori SNPs in predicting the risk of gastric cancer.METHODS A total of 15 gastric cancer-associated H. pylori SNPs were selected. The associations between these SNPs and gastric cancer were further validated in 1022 global strains with publicly available genome sequences. The PRS model was established based on the validated SNPs. The performance of the PRS for predicting the risk of gastric cancer was assessed in global strains using quintiles and random forest(RF) methods. The variation in the performance of the PRS among different populations of H. pylori was further examined.RESULTS Analyses of the association between selected SNPs and gastric cancer in the global dataset revealed that the risk allele frequencies of six SNPs were significantly higher in gastric cancer cases than non-gastric cancer cases. The PRS model constructed subsequently with these validated SNPs produced significantly higher scores in gastric cancer. The odds ratio(OR) value for gastric cancer gradually increased from the first to the fifth quintile of PRS, with the fifth quintile having an OR value as high as 9.76(95% confidence interval: 5.84-16.29). The results of RF analyses indicated that the area under the curve(AUC) value for classifying gastric cancer and non-gastric cancer was 0.75, suggesting that the PRS based on H. pylori SNPs was capable of predicting the risk of gastric cancer. Assessing the performance of the PRS among different H. pylori populations demonstrated that it had good predictive power for cancer risk for hp Europe strains, with an AUC value of 0.78.CONCLUSION The PRS model based on H. pylori SNPs had a good performance for assessment of gastric cancer risk. It would be useful in the prediction of final consequences of the H. pylori infection and beneficial for the management of the infection in clinical settings.
文摘BACKGROUND Although early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting(CABG)with cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB)are rare,the associated mortality remains high.AIM To develop a risk score for the prediction of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.METHODS This retrospective study was performed in the Federal State Budgetary Establishment“Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery”of the Ministry of Health of Russia(the city of Chelyabinsk)and included data of 6586 patients who underwent CABG with CPB during 2011-2017.The risk factors taken for evaluation were compared between patients with early abdominal complications(n=73)and without them(n=6513).We identified the most important risk factors and their influence on the development of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.RESULTS Gender and the presence of postinfarction cardiosclerosis,chronic kidney disease,or diabetes in the anamnesis did not affect the occurrence of abdominal complications.The leading risk factors of the early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB were multifocal atherosclerosis,extracorporeal membrane oxygenation,intra-aortic balloon pump,atrial fibrillation,perioperative myocardial infarction,and the need for resternotomy in the postoperative period.The average value of the predicted probability was 0.087±0.015 in patients with early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and 0.0094±0.0003 in patients without these complications.The percentage of correct classification turned out to be 98.9%.After calculating a score for each of the leading risk factors,we counted a total score for each particular patient.The highest risk was noted in patients with a total score of 7 or more.CONCLUSION The developed score predicts the risk of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and makes it possible to stratify patients by risk groups.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (No. 2017YFC1309100)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China (No. 81771912, 81901910, and 81701782)the Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangdong Province (No. 2017B020227012)
文摘Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics-based predictive risk score(RPRS) for preoperative prediction of lymph node(LN) metastasis in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC).Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 717 who underwent surgical resection for primary NSCLC with systematic mediastinal lymphadenectomy from October 2007 to July 2016. By using the method of radiomics analysis, 591 computed tomography(CT)-based radiomics features were extracted, and the radiomics-based classifier was constructed. Then, using multivariable logistic regression analysis, a weighted score RPRS was derived to identify LN metastasis. Apparent prediction performance of RPRS was assessed with its calibration,discrimination, and clinical usefulness.Results: The radiomics-based classifier was constructed, which consisted of 13 selected radiomics features.Multivariate models demonstrated that radiomics-based classifier, age group, tumor diameter, tumor location, and CT-based LN status were independent predictors. When we assigned the corresponding score to each variable,patients with RPRSs of 0-3, 4-5, 6, 7-8, and 9 had distinctly very low(0%-20%), low(21%-40%), intermediate(41%-60%), high(61%-80%), and very high(81%-100%) risks of LN involvement, respectively. The developed RPRS showed good discrimination and satisfactory calibration (C-index: 0.785, 95% confidence interval(95% CI):0.780-0.790)Additionally, RPRS outperformed the clinicopathologic-based characteristics model with net reclassification index(NRI) of 0.711(95% CI: 0.555-0.867).Conclusions: The novel clinical scoring system developed as RPRS can serve as an easy-to-use tool to facilitate the preoperatively individualized prediction of LN metastasis in patients with resectable NSCLC. This stratification of patients according to their LN status may provide a basis for individualized treatment.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer is a common digestive cancer worldwide.As a comprehensive treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC),neoadjuvant therapy(NT)has been increasingly used as the standard treatment for clinical stage II/III rectal cancer.However,few patients achieve a complete pathological response,and most patients require surgical resection and adjuvant therapy.Therefore,identifying risk factors and developing accurate models to predict the prognosis of LARC patients are of great clinical significance.AIM To establish effective prognostic nomograms and risk score prediction models to predict overall survival(OS)and disease-free survival(DFS)for LARC treated with NT.METHODS Nomograms and risk factor score prediction models were based on patients who received NT at the Cancer Hospital from 2015 to 2017.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model were utilized to screen for prognostic risk factors,which were validated by the Cox regression method.Assessment of the performance of the two prediction models was conducted using receiver operating characteristic curves,and that of the two nomograms was conducted by calculating the concordance index(C-index)and calibration curves.The results were validated in a cohort of 65 patients from 2015 to 2017.RESULTS Seven features were significantly associated with OS and were included in the OS prediction nomogram and prediction model:Vascular_tumors_bolt,cancer nodules,yN,body mass index,matchmouth distance from the edge,nerve aggression and postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen.The nomogram showed good predictive value for OS,with a C-index of 0.91(95%CI:0.85,0.97)and good calibration.In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.69(95%CI:0.53,0.84).The risk factor prediction model showed good predictive value.The areas under the curve for 3-and 5-year survival were 0.811 and 0.782.The nomogram for predicting DFS included ypTNM and nerve aggression and showed good calibration and a C-index of 0.77(95%CI:0.69,0.85).In the validation cohort,the C-index was 0.71(95%CI:0.61,0.81).The prediction model for DFS also had good predictive value,with an AUC for 3-year survival of 0.784 and an AUC for 5-year survival of 0.754.CONCLUSION We established accurate nomograms and prediction models for predicting OS and DFS in patients with LARC after undergoing NT.
文摘Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the compli-cations, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score(GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact.
基金Supported by The Ophthalmological Foundation of Santander-FOSCAL
文摘AIM: To assess the performance of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score(FINDRISC) questionnaire for detecting and predicting type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM2) in a Colombian population.METHODS: This is a longitudinal observational study conducted in Floridablanca, Colombia. Adult subjects(age ≥ 35 years) without known diabetes, were included. A modified version of FINDRISC was completed, and the glycemia values from all the subjects were collected from the hospital's database. Firstly, a cross-sectional analysis was performed and then, the subsample of prediabetic participants was followed for diabetes incidence. RESULTS: A total of 772 subjects were suitable for the study. The overall prevalence of undiagnosed DM2 was 2.59%, and the incidence of DM2 among the prediabetic participants was 7.5 per 100 person-years after a total of 265257 person-years follow-up. The FINDRISC at baseline was significantly associated with undiagnosed and incident DM2. The area under receiver operating characteristics curve of the FINDRISC score for detecting undiagnosed DM2 in both men and women was 0.7477 and 0.7175, respectively; and for predicting the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics was 71.99% in men and 67.74% in women. CONCLUSION: The FINDRISC questionnaire is a useful screening tool to identify cross-sectionally unknown DM2 and to predict the incidence of DM2 among prediabetics in the Colombian population.
文摘Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death,and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation,avoiding the overtreatment of low-risk subjects or the early,inappropriate discharge of high-risk patients. Many clinical scores have been derived and validated for in-hospital and post-discharge survival; predictive models include demographic,clinical,hemodynamic and laboratory variables. Data sets are derived from public registries,clinical trials,and retrospective data. Most models show a good capacity to discriminate patients who reach major clinical end-points,with C-indices generally higher than 0.70,but their applicability in realworld populations has been seldom evaluated. No study has evaluated if the use of risk score-based stratification might improve patient outcome. Some variables(age,blood pressure,sodium concentration,renal function) recur in most scores and should always be considered when evaluating the risk of an individual patient hospitalized for acute heart failure. Future studies will evaluate the emerging role of plasma biomarkers.
文摘Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) has a prevalence of approximately 30% in western countries, and is emerging as the first cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). Therefore, risk stratification emerges as fundamental in order to optimize human and economic resources, and genetics displays intrinsic characteristics suitable to fulfill this task. According to the available data, heritability estimates for hepatic fat content range from 20% to 70%, and an almost 80% of shared heritability has been found between hepatic fat content and fibrosis. The rs738409 single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 gene and the rs58542926 SNP in transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 gene have been robustly associated with NAFLD and with its progression, but promising results have been obtained with many other SNPs. Moreover, there has been proof of the additive role of the different SNPs in determining liver damage, and there have been preliminary experiences in which risk scores created through a few genetic variants, alone or in combination with clinical variables, were associated with a strongly potentiated risk of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH), NASH fibrosis or NAFLD-HCC. However, to date, clinical translation of genetics in the field of NAFLD has been poor or absent. Fortunately, the research we have done seems to have placed us on the right path: We should rely on longitudinal rather than on cross-sectional studies; we should focus on relevant outcomes rather than on simple liver fat accumulation; and we should put together the genetic and clinical information. The hope is that combined genetic/clinical scores, derived from longitudinal studies and built on a few strong genetic variants and relevant clinical variables, will reach a significant predictive power, such as to have clinical utility for risk stratification at the single patient level and even to esteem the impact of intervention on the risk of disease-related outcomes. Well-structured future studies would demonstrate if this vision can become a reality.
