As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates th...As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its predecessors.In terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in EXP2.Within the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction skill.However,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–3.Particularly at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the MJO.Our results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO prediction.Future efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.展开更多
BACKGROUND Thalidomide is an effective treatment for refractory Crohn’s disease(CD).However,thalidomide-induced peripheral neuropathy(TiPN),which has a large individual variation,is a major cause of treatment failure...BACKGROUND Thalidomide is an effective treatment for refractory Crohn’s disease(CD).However,thalidomide-induced peripheral neuropathy(TiPN),which has a large individual variation,is a major cause of treatment failure.TiPN is rarely predictable and recognized,especially in CD.It is necessary to develop a risk model to predict TiPN occurrence.AIM To develop and compare a predictive model of TiPN using machine learning based on comprehensive clinical and genetic variables.METHODS A retrospective cohort of 164 CD patients from January 2016 to June 2022 was used to establish the model.The National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria Sensory Scale(version 4.0)was used to assess TiPN.With 18 clinical features and 150 genetic variables,five predictive models were established and evaluated by the confusion matrix receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),area under the precision-recall curve(AUPRC),specificity,sensitivity(recall rate),precision,accuracy,and F1 score.RESULTS The top-ranking five risk variables associated with TiPN were interleukin-12 rs1353248[P=0.0004,odds ratio(OR):8.983,95%confidence interval(CI):2.497-30.90],dose(mg/d,P=0.002),brainderived neurotrophic factor(BDNF)rs2030324(P=0.001,OR:3.164,95%CI:1.561-6.434),BDNF rs6265(P=0.001,OR:3.150,95%CI:1.546-6.073)and BDNF rs11030104(P=0.001,OR:3.091,95%CI:1.525-5.960).In the training set,gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT),extremely random trees(ET),random forest,logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)obtained AUROC values>0.90 and AUPRC>0.87.Among these models,XGBoost and GBDT obtained the first two highest AUROC(0.90 and 1),AUPRC(0.98 and 1),accuracy(0.96 and 0.98),precision(0.90 and 0.95),F1 score(0.95 and 0.98),specificity(0.94 and 0.97),and sensitivity(1).In the validation set,XGBoost algorithm exhibited the best predictive performance with the highest specificity(0.857),accuracy(0.818),AUPRC(0.86)and AUROC(0.89).ET and GBDT obtained the highest sensitivity(1)and F1 score(0.8).Overall,compared with other state-of-the-art classifiers such as ET,GBDT and RF,XGBoost algorithm not only showed a more stable performance,but also yielded higher ROC-AUC and PRC-AUC scores,demonstrating its high accuracy in prediction of TiPN occurrence.CONCLUSION The powerful XGBoost algorithm accurately predicts TiPN using 18 clinical features and 14 genetic variables.With the ability to identify high-risk patients using single nucleotide polymorphisms,it offers a feasible option for improving thalidomide efficacy in CD patients.展开更多
To protect the environment,the discharged sewage’s quality must meet the state’s discharge standards.There are many water quality indicators,and the pH(Potential of Hydrogen)value is one of them.The natural water’s...To protect the environment,the discharged sewage’s quality must meet the state’s discharge standards.There are many water quality indicators,and the pH(Potential of Hydrogen)value is one of them.The natural water’s pH value is 6.0–8.5.The sewage treatment plant uses some data in the sewage treatment process to monitor and predict whether wastewater’s pH value will exceed the standard.This paper aims to study the deep learning prediction model of wastewater’s pH.Firstly,the research uses the random forest method to select the data features and then,based on the sliding window,convert the data set into a time series which is the input of the deep learning training model.Secondly,by analyzing and comparing relevant references,this paper believes that the CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)model is better at nonlinear data modeling and constructs a CNN model including the convolution and pooling layers.After alternating the combination of the convolutional layer and pooling layer,all features are integrated into a full-connected neural network.Thirdly,the number of input samples of the CNN model directly affects the prediction effect of the model.Therefore,this paper adopts the sliding window method to study the optimal size.Many experimental results show that the optimal prediction model can be obtained when alternating six convolutional layers and three pooling layers.The last full-connection layer contains two layers and 64 neurons per layer.The sliding window size selects as 12.Finally,the research has carried out data prediction based on the optimal CNN deep learning model.The predicted pH of the sewage is between 7.2 and 8.6 in this paper.The result is applied in the monitoring system platform of the“Intelligent operation and maintenance platform of the reclaimed water plant.”展开更多
It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage pre...It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.展开更多
The Newton gravitational constant is considered a cornerstone of modern gravity theory. Newton did not invent or use the gravity constant;it was invented in 1873, about the same time as it became standard to use the k...The Newton gravitational constant is considered a cornerstone of modern gravity theory. Newton did not invent or use the gravity constant;it was invented in 1873, about the same time as it became standard to use the kilogram mass definition. We will claim that G is just a term needed to correct the incomplete kilogram definition so to be able to make gravity predictions. But there is another way;namely, to directly use a more complete mass definition, something that in recent years has been introduced as collision-time and a corresponding energy called collision-length. The collision-length is quantum gravitational energy. We will clearly demonstrate that by working with mass and energy based on these new concepts, rather than kilogram and the gravitational constant, one can significantly reduce the uncertainty in most gravity predictions.展开更多
Clinical presentation at diagnosis and disease course of both Crohn's disease(CD) and ulcerative colitis are heterogeneous and variable over time.Since most patients have a relapsing course and most CD patients de...Clinical presentation at diagnosis and disease course of both Crohn's disease(CD) and ulcerative colitis are heterogeneous and variable over time.Since most patients have a relapsing course and most CD patients develop complications(e.g.stricture and/or perforation),much emphasis has been placed in the recent years on the determination of important predictive factors.The identification of these factors may eventually lead to a more personalized,tailored therapy.In this TOPIC HIGHLIGHT series,we provide an update on the available literature regarding important clinical,endoscopic,fecal,serological/routine laboratory and genetic factors.Our aim is to assist clinicians in the everyday practical decisionmaking when choosing the treatment strategy for their patients suffering from inflammatory bowel diseases.展开更多
An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predi...An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,respectively.The success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF model.However,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead.On one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China.On the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.The Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).展开更多
Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in mo...Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure.Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting.However,little information is available regarding on where,at what rates,and in which ways(i.e.,intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland) to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale.This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent(CLUE-S) model,which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally,to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing,China.Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics(mainly croplands and orchards) were considered in the prediction.Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011:The promotion of green manure planting in orchards(scenario 1) and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands(scenario 2).The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and Kappa indices,which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction.In addition,the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired,which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan,the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang,the middle region of Shandongzhuang,the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1.Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang,and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang,southern Pinggu,northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang.The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators.The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175691 900 and143000 300 CNY,respectively,which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure.These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075161).
文摘As one of the participants in the Subseasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)has adopted several model versions to participate in the S2S Project.This study evaluates the models’capability to simulate and predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).Three versions of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM)are used to conduct historical simulations and re-forecast experiments(referred to as EXP1,EXP1-M,and EXP2,respectively).In simulating MJO characteristics,the newly-developed high-resolution BCC-CSM outperforms its predecessors.In terms of MJO prediction,the useful prediction skill of the MJO index is enhanced from 15 days in EXP1 to 22 days in EXP1-M,and further to 24 days in EXP2.Within the first forecast week,the better initial condition in EXP2 largely contributes to the enhancement of MJO prediction skill.However,during forecast weeks 2–3,EXP2 shows little advantage compared with EXP1-M because the increased skill at MJO initial phases 6–7 is largely offset by the degraded skill at MJO initial phases 2–3.Particularly at initial phases 2–3,EXP1-M skillfully captures the wind field and Kelvin-wave response to MJO convection,leading to the highest prediction skill of the MJO.Our results reveal that,during the participation of the CMA models in the S2S Project,both the improved model initialization and updated model physics played positive roles in improving MJO prediction.Future efforts should focus on improving the model physics to better simulate MJO convection over the Maritime Continent and further improve MJO prediction at long lead times.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81973398,No.81730103,No.81573507 and No.82020108031The National Key Research and Development Program,No.2017YFC0909300 and No.2016YFC0905001+5 种基金Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Construction Foundation,No.2017B030314030 and No.2020B1212060034Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou,No.201607020031National Engineering and Technology Research Center for New Drug Druggability Evaluation(Seed Program of Guangdong Province),No.2017B090903004The 111 Project,No.B16047China Postdoctoral Science Foundation,No.2019M66324,No.2020M683140 and No.2020M683139Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,No.2022A1515012549 and No.2023A1515012667.
文摘BACKGROUND Thalidomide is an effective treatment for refractory Crohn’s disease(CD).However,thalidomide-induced peripheral neuropathy(TiPN),which has a large individual variation,is a major cause of treatment failure.TiPN is rarely predictable and recognized,especially in CD.It is necessary to develop a risk model to predict TiPN occurrence.AIM To develop and compare a predictive model of TiPN using machine learning based on comprehensive clinical and genetic variables.METHODS A retrospective cohort of 164 CD patients from January 2016 to June 2022 was used to establish the model.The National Cancer Institute Common Toxicity Criteria Sensory Scale(version 4.0)was used to assess TiPN.With 18 clinical features and 150 genetic variables,five predictive models were established and evaluated by the confusion matrix receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC),area under the precision-recall curve(AUPRC),specificity,sensitivity(recall rate),precision,accuracy,and F1 score.RESULTS The top-ranking five risk variables associated with TiPN were interleukin-12 rs1353248[P=0.0004,odds ratio(OR):8.983,95%confidence interval(CI):2.497-30.90],dose(mg/d,P=0.002),brainderived neurotrophic factor(BDNF)rs2030324(P=0.001,OR:3.164,95%CI:1.561-6.434),BDNF rs6265(P=0.001,OR:3.150,95%CI:1.546-6.073)and BDNF rs11030104(P=0.001,OR:3.091,95%CI:1.525-5.960).In the training set,gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT),extremely random trees(ET),random forest,logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)obtained AUROC values>0.90 and AUPRC>0.87.Among these models,XGBoost and GBDT obtained the first two highest AUROC(0.90 and 1),AUPRC(0.98 and 1),accuracy(0.96 and 0.98),precision(0.90 and 0.95),F1 score(0.95 and 0.98),specificity(0.94 and 0.97),and sensitivity(1).In the validation set,XGBoost algorithm exhibited the best predictive performance with the highest specificity(0.857),accuracy(0.818),AUPRC(0.86)and AUROC(0.89).ET and GBDT obtained the highest sensitivity(1)and F1 score(0.8).Overall,compared with other state-of-the-art classifiers such as ET,GBDT and RF,XGBoost algorithm not only showed a more stable performance,but also yielded higher ROC-AUC and PRC-AUC scores,demonstrating its high accuracy in prediction of TiPN occurrence.CONCLUSION The powerful XGBoost algorithm accurately predicts TiPN using 18 clinical features and 14 genetic variables.With the ability to identify high-risk patients using single nucleotide polymorphisms,it offers a feasible option for improving thalidomide efficacy in CD patients.
基金This research was funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFB2100603)the Key R&D Program of Hubei Province(No.2022BAA048)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China program(No.41890822)the Open Fund of National Engineering Research Centre for Geographic Information System,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China(No.2022KFJJ07)The numerical calculations in this paper have been done on the supercomputing system in the Supercomputing Centre of Wuhan University.
文摘To protect the environment,the discharged sewage’s quality must meet the state’s discharge standards.There are many water quality indicators,and the pH(Potential of Hydrogen)value is one of them.The natural water’s pH value is 6.0–8.5.The sewage treatment plant uses some data in the sewage treatment process to monitor and predict whether wastewater’s pH value will exceed the standard.This paper aims to study the deep learning prediction model of wastewater’s pH.Firstly,the research uses the random forest method to select the data features and then,based on the sliding window,convert the data set into a time series which is the input of the deep learning training model.Secondly,by analyzing and comparing relevant references,this paper believes that the CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)model is better at nonlinear data modeling and constructs a CNN model including the convolution and pooling layers.After alternating the combination of the convolutional layer and pooling layer,all features are integrated into a full-connected neural network.Thirdly,the number of input samples of the CNN model directly affects the prediction effect of the model.Therefore,this paper adopts the sliding window method to study the optimal size.Many experimental results show that the optimal prediction model can be obtained when alternating six convolutional layers and three pooling layers.The last full-connection layer contains two layers and 64 neurons per layer.The sliding window size selects as 12.Finally,the research has carried out data prediction based on the optimal CNN deep learning model.The predicted pH of the sewage is between 7.2 and 8.6 in this paper.The result is applied in the monitoring system platform of the“Intelligent operation and maintenance platform of the reclaimed water plant.”
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2039209, U1839208, and 51408564)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (LH2021E119)+1 种基金Spark Program of Earthquake Science (XH23027YB)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1504003).
文摘It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.
文摘The Newton gravitational constant is considered a cornerstone of modern gravity theory. Newton did not invent or use the gravity constant;it was invented in 1873, about the same time as it became standard to use the kilogram mass definition. We will claim that G is just a term needed to correct the incomplete kilogram definition so to be able to make gravity predictions. But there is another way;namely, to directly use a more complete mass definition, something that in recent years has been introduced as collision-time and a corresponding energy called collision-length. The collision-length is quantum gravitational energy. We will clearly demonstrate that by working with mass and energy based on these new concepts, rather than kilogram and the gravitational constant, one can significantly reduce the uncertainty in most gravity predictions.
文摘Clinical presentation at diagnosis and disease course of both Crohn's disease(CD) and ulcerative colitis are heterogeneous and variable over time.Since most patients have a relapsing course and most CD patients develop complications(e.g.stricture and/or perforation),much emphasis has been placed in the recent years on the determination of important predictive factors.The identification of these factors may eventually lead to a more personalized,tailored therapy.In this TOPIC HIGHLIGHT series,we provide an update on the available literature regarding important clinical,endoscopic,fecal,serological/routine laboratory and genetic factors.Our aim is to assist clinicians in the everyday practical decisionmaking when choosing the treatment strategy for their patients suffering from inflammatory bowel diseases.
基金The authors greatly appreciate the professional and earnest review made by the anonymous reviewers which for sure improved the quality of our manuscript.This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1505905&2018YFC1505803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101,41805048 and 41875069)Tim LI was supported by NSF AGS-1643297 and NOAA Grant NA18OAR4310298.
文摘An exceptionally prolonged heavy snow event(PHSE)occurred in southern China from 10 January to 3 February 2008,which caused considerable economic losses and many casualties.To what extent any dynamical model can predict such an extreme event is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation.Here,we found the three S2S models(ECMWF,CMA1.0 and CMA2.0)can predict the distribution and intensity of precipitation and surface air temperature(SAT)associated with the PHSE at 10-day lead and 10−15-day lead,respectively.The success is attributed to the models’capability in forecasting the evolution of two important low-frequency systems in the tropics and mid-latitudes[the persistent Siberian High and the suppressed phase of the Madden−Julian Oscillation(MJO)],especially in the ECMWF model.However,beyond the 15-day lead,the three models show almost no skill in forecasting this PHSE.The bias in capturing the two critical circulation systems is responsible for the low skill in forecasting the 2008 PHSE beyond the 15-day lead.On one hand,the models cannot reproduce the persistence of the Siberian High,which results in the underestimation of negative SAT anomalies over southern China.On the other hand,the models cannot accurately capture the suppressed convection of the MJO,leading to weak anomalous southerly and moisture transport,and therefore the underestimation of precipitation over southern China.The Singular Value Decomposition(SVD)analyses between the critical circulation systems and SAT/precipitation over southern China shows a robust historical relation,indicating the fidelity of the predictability sources for both regular events and extreme events(e.g.,the 2008 PHSE).
基金supported by the Special Fund for Agroscientific Research in the Public Interest,China(20110300501-01)the Special Fund for First-Class University (4572-18101510)
文摘Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure.Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting.However,little information is available regarding on where,at what rates,and in which ways(i.e.,intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland) to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale.This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent(CLUE-S) model,which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally,to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing,China.Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics(mainly croplands and orchards) were considered in the prediction.Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011:The promotion of green manure planting in orchards(scenario 1) and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands(scenario 2).The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and Kappa indices,which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction.In addition,the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired,which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan,the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang,the middle region of Shandongzhuang,the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1.Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang,and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang,southern Pinggu,northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang.The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators.The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175691 900 and143000 300 CNY,respectively,which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure.These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.
