Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of ...Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.展开更多
Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate ...Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.展开更多
The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a cas...The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.展开更多
Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results i...Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.展开更多
Material Flow Analysis（MFA） is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or su...Material Flow Analysis（MFA） is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or substances.The results of MFA studies could support the strategies or decisions making for energy, resource,and waste management,especially achieving sustainable resource management.At CSC,the dynamic simulating software,STELLA,is used to develop a MFA model for scenario analysis.CSC also uses the freeware STAN 2.0 as a tool for visualizing and simulating material flows and stocks.Case studies of greenhouse gases MFA for integrated steel works are conducted.The results showed that the carbon content of hot-metal is an important hidden flow for balance analysis,and the different GHG emission scenarios and mitigation action scenarios are assessed.In addition,the Iron-making GHG I/O MFA Model,based on worldsteel Global Steel Sector Approach（GSSA）,is developed for calculating the CO2 and energy intensity of coke making,sintering,and BF processes.This MFA model was used to analyze the CO2 reduction potential for iron-making process.The cases conducted for MFA applications at CSC were such as greenhouse gas,zinc,etc.In the future,CSC is going to develop a 'CSC Environment Management and Decision Supporting System' which combine MFA,LCA（life cycle assessment）,and environment risk assessment.This supporting system expects to promoting energy efficiency and best resource use,supporting environment policymaking,creating environmental information value,etc.展开更多
Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve futur...Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.展开更多
We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal R...We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.展开更多
In the context of global emission reduction, the low-carbon sustainable development of the construction industry has become an important research content. With the vigorous development of new industrial technologies, ...In the context of global emission reduction, the low-carbon sustainable development of the construction industry has become an important research content. With the vigorous development of new industrial technologies, the application of prefabrication technology to buildings had become a mainstream. However, the research on the role of prefabricated technology in reducing building carbon emissions was not yet comprehensive, and the research on the relationship between prefabricated structure types and carbon emissions in the construction stage was not yet thorough. Guided by life cycle assessment (LCA), this paper used the scenario analysis method to set different working conditions for five different structural systems, and used SimaPro software to evaluate the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings in order to clarify the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings under different structural systems, and explore their impact mechanisms in depth. Finally, take the existing buildings in China as an empirical study, the results showed that: 1) The carbon emissions produced by the four common prefabricated structural systems were almost the same. Different structures had different requirements for the combination of components. The carbon emissions of individual buildings would be superimposed according to the carbon emission characteristics of various individual components to form the final total carbon emissions. 2) When the building structure system requires more combinations of components, the greater the amount of transportation invested in the transportation process, the more carbon emissions would be caused. In the calculation of all individual building construction stages, the carbon emissions generated by tower cranes almost exceed the sum of the carbon emissions of all mobile machinery. 3) Prefabricated shear wall structures and prefabricated frame-shear wall structures require a large amount of hoisting of prefabricated shear walls, so the carbon emissions of their mechanical equipment were also the highest.展开更多
Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and ...Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.展开更多
A better understanding and a more quantitative design of mixed-species stands will contribute to more integrative and goal-oriented research in mixed-species forests.Much recent work has indicated that the structure a...A better understanding and a more quantitative design of mixed-species stands will contribute to more integrative and goal-oriented research in mixed-species forests.Much recent work has indicated that the structure and growth of mixed species forests may fundamentally differ from monocultures.Here we suggest how to progress from the present accumulation of phenomenological findings to a design of mixed-species stands and advanced silvicultural prescriptions by means of modelling.First,the knowledge of mixing effects on the structure and growth at the stand,species,and individual tree level is reviewed,with a focus on those findings that are most essential for suitable modelling and silvicultural designs and the regulation of mixed stands as opposed to monocultures.Then,the key role of growth models,stand simulators,and scenario assessments for designing mixed species stands is discussed.The next section illustrates that existing forest stand growth models require some fundamental modifications to become suitable for both monocultures and mixed-species stands.We then explore how silvicultural prescriptions derived from scenario runs would need to be both quantified and simplified for transfer to forest management and demonstrated in training plots.Finally,we address the main remaining knowledge gaps that could be remedied through empirical research.展开更多
With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many e...With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.展开更多
This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses...This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent-based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the influence on future land use patterns of socio-economic attributes such as social relationships and farmer reliance on subsidies and biophysical constraints. The application and development of the ABM are supported empirically using three categories of input data: 1) farmer types based on a cluster analysis of socio-economic attributes;2) agricultural suitability based on regression analysis of historical land use maps and biophysical attributes;and 3) future trends in the economic and climatic environments based on the A1fi scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out prior to the scenario analysis in order to verify the absence of systematic errors in the model structure. The results of the scenario analysis show that the area of Montado declines significantly by 2050, but it remains the dominant land use in the case study area, indicating some resilience to change. An important policy challenge arising from this assessment is how to encourage next generation of innovative farmers to conserve this traditional landscape for social and ecological values.展开更多
Air pollution,especially fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))pollution,has a great negative impact on human production and normal life.It is a hot issue of global concern,and it is also a huge test for China’s high-qual...Air pollution,especially fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))pollution,has a great negative impact on human production and normal life.It is a hot issue of global concern,and it is also a huge test for China’s high-quality socioeconomic development.Environmental absorption capacity(EAC)is the guarantee of the structure and function of a healthy atmospheric environmental system.It plays an important role in the automatic accommodation,absorption,and digestion of air pollutants produced by humans in the process of industrialization and civilization.Understanding the absorption capacity of environmental elements on PM_(2.5),and exploring the impact of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration are of great significance to the development of new ideas for air pollution control.This paper constructed an index system to calculate the EAC index from two dimensions(natural resource endowment and impact of human activities),analyzed and discussed the impact of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration and its heterogeneity effect through panel regression model,generalized panel quantile regression based on MCMC optimization and scenario analysis,by using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2017.The results suggested that:(i)The overall level of national EAC was low,and the regional differences were large.EAC was influenced by natural resource endowment and human activities,while natural endowment was the main factor affecting EAC,and human activities were the main factor causing the fluctuation and the regional difference of EAC.(ii)As the result of full sample regression demonstrated,the enhancement of EAC had a significant negative influence on the reduction of PM_(2.5) concentration.In areas with high PM_(2.5) concentration,the effect of EAC was more obvious,but the effect did not necessarily increase with the increase of PM_(2.5) concentration.Also,in extreme cases,the effect did not pass the significance test.(iii)According to the results of heterogeneity effect analysis,the effect of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration was significantly negative in sustainable scenario and emergency scenario,while the effect was not significant in Soylent Green scenario.The conclusion provides important implications for the prevention and control of air pollution and the improvement of atmospheric environmental quality.展开更多
With policy incentives for the coalbed methane in energy industry,coalbed methane from coal production has been effectively improved by technology innovations in coalbed methane extraction and utilization.The progress...With policy incentives for the coalbed methane in energy industry,coalbed methane from coal production has been effectively improved by technology innovations in coalbed methane extraction and utilization.The progress of coalbed methane promotes the clean construction of energy system and contributes to carbon neutrality target.To quantitatively measure the contributions of the coalbed methane in energy industry,this paper builds a carbon emissions accounting system for coalbed methane in China and assesses the historical co-benefits of coalbed methane utilization from the aspects of emissions reduction,safety and economy.By using the parameters of gas content,raw coal production,gas extraction rate and utilization rate over the years,emissions reduction potential and economic viability of coal seam gas are estimated and the safety benefits of coal mine gas extraction are analyzed by using data for gas accidents and economic losses.The results reveal that with the increase in raw coal production,the great emission reduction potential of coalbed methane is expected to benefit clean energy system and the development of carbon neutrality by means of policy incentives and technology innovations.The co-benefit evaluation indicates the huge profitability of coalbed methane from 2012 to 2015 and the significance of emissions reduction and safety gain internalization.Safety benefits are obvious in the negative exponential function between the annual drainage quantities of coalbed methane and annual death tolls from coal mine gas accidents.Based on these results,relevant suggestions are put forward for sustainable development of the coalbed methane in energy industry.展开更多
In Benin, Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) is one of the agroforestry species of great socio-economic importance for local populations. Given the actual variation in the climate parameters, it is necessary to anticipat...In Benin, Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) is one of the agroforestry species of great socio-economic importance for local populations. Given the actual variation in the climate parameters, it is necessary to anticipate the future spatial distribution of Shea trees as an adaptation strategy and for designing relevant conservation strategies. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution areas of Shea trees in Benin. Occurrence data consisting of geographic coordinates of Shea trees in Benin as well as bioclimatic variables were recorded. Furthemore, additional presence points were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database website. Current and future environmental data for the study area were obtained from the Africlim website. Bioclimatic variables (moisture and temperature), monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall were collected from Worldclim synoptic stations website for the period 1970-2000. The aridity index was created from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual rainfall, using spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS. The impact of current and future environmental conditions on favourable Shea trees’ growing area was assessed following the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Under the current climate conditions, 80% of Benin territory and 79% of the protected areas were highly favourable for Shea trees growing and conservation. However, all climate scenarios projected the significant decrease of 14% to 19% of the distribution of favourable for Shea tree growing area and 26% to 30% of the protected areas by 2055 in favour of non-favourable for the trees’ distribution. The protection of habitats favourable for the species development, coupled with a quick restoration of the species through the use of appropriate vegetative propagation techniques are required to sustain the species’ conservation in Benin and maintain farmers’ livelihood.展开更多
It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming.This paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to op...It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming.This paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning year.This paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province,using a scenario combination of system dynamics(SD)prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different perspectives.Structural equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy consumption.Pairing the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption development.Based on this,21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are constructed.Through SD prediction and analysis,the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is selected.This paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate,the proportion of secondary industry,energy consumption intensity of secondary industry,and the urbanization rate for Shandong Province.This paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.展开更多
This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in ...This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.展开更多
This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degre...This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.展开更多
In view of the abrupt and phased features of natural gas consumption,this paper attempts to predict natural gas consumption in China with a refined forecasting approach.First,we establish a Markov switching(MS)model t...In view of the abrupt and phased features of natural gas consumption,this paper attempts to predict natural gas consumption in China with a refined forecasting approach.First,we establish a Markov switching(MS)model to identify the phase characteristics after eliminating change points in the natural gas consumption sequence,using the product partition model(PPM).The results show that there are"rapid growth"and"slow growth"regimes in the development process of natural gas consumption in China.Second,the Bayesian model average(BMA)method is employed to determine the core determinants of natural gas consumption under sub-regimes,and it is determined that there are significant differences in the influencing factors under different regimes and periods.Third,this paper establishes the BMA model of the"rapid growth"regime after predicting the state of future natural gas consumption in China.We find that,compared to some other models,the BMA model that fully recognizes the regime without considering change points has the best predictive performance.Finally,the results of static and dynamic scenario analyses show that natural gas consumption continues to rise in 2019 and has obvious seasonal charac-teristics,while possible ultra-rapid growth of consumption in the future provides a new requirement for the supply of natural gas.展开更多
基金funded as part of the Swiss NFI program by the Federal Office of Environment FOEN and the Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape research WSL。
文摘Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
基金financial support by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2018YFC1509006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71874096)+1 种基金the Macao SAR Government Higher Education Fundthe Macao University of Science and Technology (Grant No.FRG-19-008-MSB)。
文摘Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.
基金Funding for the study was provided by the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(the 111 Project)(B07002)the mega-projects for science research for water environment improvement(No.2009ZX07526-005-04).
文摘The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.
文摘Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.
文摘Material Flow Analysis（MFA） is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or substances.The results of MFA studies could support the strategies or decisions making for energy, resource,and waste management,especially achieving sustainable resource management.At CSC,the dynamic simulating software,STELLA,is used to develop a MFA model for scenario analysis.CSC also uses the freeware STAN 2.0 as a tool for visualizing and simulating material flows and stocks.Case studies of greenhouse gases MFA for integrated steel works are conducted.The results showed that the carbon content of hot-metal is an important hidden flow for balance analysis,and the different GHG emission scenarios and mitigation action scenarios are assessed.In addition,the Iron-making GHG I/O MFA Model,based on worldsteel Global Steel Sector Approach（GSSA）,is developed for calculating the CO2 and energy intensity of coke making,sintering,and BF processes.This MFA model was used to analyze the CO2 reduction potential for iron-making process.The cases conducted for MFA applications at CSC were such as greenhouse gas,zinc,etc.In the future,CSC is going to develop a 'CSC Environment Management and Decision Supporting System' which combine MFA,LCA（life cycle assessment）,and environment risk assessment.This supporting system expects to promoting energy efficiency and best resource use,supporting environment policymaking,creating environmental information value,etc.
文摘Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of People’s Republic of China(Grant no.20JHQ016)the National Social Science Fund of China(Grant no.17BGJ059)。
文摘We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.
文摘In the context of global emission reduction, the low-carbon sustainable development of the construction industry has become an important research content. With the vigorous development of new industrial technologies, the application of prefabrication technology to buildings had become a mainstream. However, the research on the role of prefabricated technology in reducing building carbon emissions was not yet comprehensive, and the research on the relationship between prefabricated structure types and carbon emissions in the construction stage was not yet thorough. Guided by life cycle assessment (LCA), this paper used the scenario analysis method to set different working conditions for five different structural systems, and used SimaPro software to evaluate the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings in order to clarify the carbon emissions of prefabricated buildings under different structural systems, and explore their impact mechanisms in depth. Finally, take the existing buildings in China as an empirical study, the results showed that: 1) The carbon emissions produced by the four common prefabricated structural systems were almost the same. Different structures had different requirements for the combination of components. The carbon emissions of individual buildings would be superimposed according to the carbon emission characteristics of various individual components to form the final total carbon emissions. 2) When the building structure system requires more combinations of components, the greater the amount of transportation invested in the transportation process, the more carbon emissions would be caused. In the calculation of all individual building construction stages, the carbon emissions generated by tower cranes almost exceed the sum of the carbon emissions of all mobile machinery. 3) Prefabricated shear wall structures and prefabricated frame-shear wall structures require a large amount of hoisting of prefabricated shear walls, so the carbon emissions of their mechanical equipment were also the highest.
文摘Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.
基金the European Union for funding of the project "Management of mixed-species stands.Options for a low-risk forest management (REFORM)"(# 2816ERA02S)the Bavarian State Ministry for Nutrition,Agriculture,and Forestry for permanent support of the project W 07" Long-term experimental plots for forest growth and yield research "(# 7831-22209-2013)+1 种基金the German Science Foundation for providing the funds for the projects PR 292/12-1" Tree and stand-level growth reactions on drought in mixed versus pure forests of Norway spruce and European beech"the National Institute of Food and Agriculture/Pennsylvania Agriculture Experiment Station project PEN 04516 for its support
文摘A better understanding and a more quantitative design of mixed-species stands will contribute to more integrative and goal-oriented research in mixed-species forests.Much recent work has indicated that the structure and growth of mixed species forests may fundamentally differ from monocultures.Here we suggest how to progress from the present accumulation of phenomenological findings to a design of mixed-species stands and advanced silvicultural prescriptions by means of modelling.First,the knowledge of mixing effects on the structure and growth at the stand,species,and individual tree level is reviewed,with a focus on those findings that are most essential for suitable modelling and silvicultural designs and the regulation of mixed stands as opposed to monocultures.Then,the key role of growth models,stand simulators,and scenario assessments for designing mixed species stands is discussed.The next section illustrates that existing forest stand growth models require some fundamental modifications to become suitable for both monocultures and mixed-species stands.We then explore how silvicultural prescriptions derived from scenario runs would need to be both quantified and simplified for transfer to forest management and demonstrated in training plots.Finally,we address the main remaining knowledge gaps that could be remedied through empirical research.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2243211)。
文摘With realizing the importance of ecosystem services to society, the efforts to evaluate the ecosystem services have increased. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Weihe River has been endowed with many ecological service functions. Among which, water yield can be a measure of local availability of water and an index for evaluating the conservation function of the region. This study aimed to explore the temporal and spatial variation of water yield and its influencing factors in the Weihe River Basin(WRB), and provide basis for formulating reasonable water resources utilization schemes. Based on the InVEST(integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs) model, this study simulated the water yield in the WRB from 1985 to 2019, and discussed the impacts of climatic factors and land use change on water yield by spatial autocorrelation analysis and scenario analysis methods. The results showed that there was a slight increasing trend in water yield in the WRB over the study period with the increasing rate of 4.84 mm/10a and an average depth of 83.14 mm. The main water-producing areas were concentrated along the mainstream of the Weihe River and in the southern basin. Changes in water yield were comprehensively affected by climate and underlying surface factors. Precipitation was the main factor affecting water yield, which was consistent with water yield in time. And there existed significant spatial agglomeration between water yield and precipitation. Land use had little impact on the amount of water yield, but had an impact on its spatial distribution. Water yield was higher in areas with wide distribution of construction land and grassland. Water yield of different land use types were different. Unused land showed the largest water yield capacity, whereas grassland and farmland contributed most to the total water yield. The increasing water yield in the basin indicates an enhanced water supply service function of the ecosystem. These results are of great significance to the water resources management of the WRB.
基金funded through the VISTA Project that was carried out by the authors at the Département de Géologie et de Géographie,Universite catholique de Louvain,BelgiumVISTA was funded within the 5th Framework Programme of the European Commission.
文摘This paper presents an assessment of land use changes and their impacts on the ecosystem in the Montado, a traditional agricultural landscape of Portugal in response to global environmental change. The assessment uses an agent-based model (ABM) of the adaptive decisions of farmers to simulate the influence on future land use patterns of socio-economic attributes such as social relationships and farmer reliance on subsidies and biophysical constraints. The application and development of the ABM are supported empirically using three categories of input data: 1) farmer types based on a cluster analysis of socio-economic attributes;2) agricultural suitability based on regression analysis of historical land use maps and biophysical attributes;and 3) future trends in the economic and climatic environments based on the A1fi scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Model sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are carried out prior to the scenario analysis in order to verify the absence of systematic errors in the model structure. The results of the scenario analysis show that the area of Montado declines significantly by 2050, but it remains the dominant land use in the case study area, indicating some resilience to change. An important policy challenge arising from this assessment is how to encourage next generation of innovative farmers to conserve this traditional landscape for social and ecological values.
基金support from the National Social Science Foundation of China[Grant No.18VSJ037 and 17BJY063].
文摘Air pollution,especially fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))pollution,has a great negative impact on human production and normal life.It is a hot issue of global concern,and it is also a huge test for China’s high-quality socioeconomic development.Environmental absorption capacity(EAC)is the guarantee of the structure and function of a healthy atmospheric environmental system.It plays an important role in the automatic accommodation,absorption,and digestion of air pollutants produced by humans in the process of industrialization and civilization.Understanding the absorption capacity of environmental elements on PM_(2.5),and exploring the impact of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration are of great significance to the development of new ideas for air pollution control.This paper constructed an index system to calculate the EAC index from two dimensions(natural resource endowment and impact of human activities),analyzed and discussed the impact of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration and its heterogeneity effect through panel regression model,generalized panel quantile regression based on MCMC optimization and scenario analysis,by using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2017.The results suggested that:(i)The overall level of national EAC was low,and the regional differences were large.EAC was influenced by natural resource endowment and human activities,while natural endowment was the main factor affecting EAC,and human activities were the main factor causing the fluctuation and the regional difference of EAC.(ii)As the result of full sample regression demonstrated,the enhancement of EAC had a significant negative influence on the reduction of PM_(2.5) concentration.In areas with high PM_(2.5) concentration,the effect of EAC was more obvious,but the effect did not necessarily increase with the increase of PM_(2.5) concentration.Also,in extreme cases,the effect did not pass the significance test.(iii)According to the results of heterogeneity effect analysis,the effect of EAC on PM_(2.5) concentration was significantly negative in sustainable scenario and emergency scenario,while the effect was not significant in Soylent Green scenario.The conclusion provides important implications for the prevention and control of air pollution and the improvement of atmospheric environmental quality.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71704178)Beijing Excellent Talent Program(No.2017000020124G133)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.2022SKNY01,2022YJSNY04)The suggestions from the Workshop of the Chinese Academy of Engineering are also appreciated.
文摘With policy incentives for the coalbed methane in energy industry,coalbed methane from coal production has been effectively improved by technology innovations in coalbed methane extraction and utilization.The progress of coalbed methane promotes the clean construction of energy system and contributes to carbon neutrality target.To quantitatively measure the contributions of the coalbed methane in energy industry,this paper builds a carbon emissions accounting system for coalbed methane in China and assesses the historical co-benefits of coalbed methane utilization from the aspects of emissions reduction,safety and economy.By using the parameters of gas content,raw coal production,gas extraction rate and utilization rate over the years,emissions reduction potential and economic viability of coal seam gas are estimated and the safety benefits of coal mine gas extraction are analyzed by using data for gas accidents and economic losses.The results reveal that with the increase in raw coal production,the great emission reduction potential of coalbed methane is expected to benefit clean energy system and the development of carbon neutrality by means of policy incentives and technology innovations.The co-benefit evaluation indicates the huge profitability of coalbed methane from 2012 to 2015 and the significance of emissions reduction and safety gain internalization.Safety benefits are obvious in the negative exponential function between the annual drainage quantities of coalbed methane and annual death tolls from coal mine gas accidents.Based on these results,relevant suggestions are put forward for sustainable development of the coalbed methane in energy industry.
文摘In Benin, Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) is one of the agroforestry species of great socio-economic importance for local populations. Given the actual variation in the climate parameters, it is necessary to anticipate the future spatial distribution of Shea trees as an adaptation strategy and for designing relevant conservation strategies. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution areas of Shea trees in Benin. Occurrence data consisting of geographic coordinates of Shea trees in Benin as well as bioclimatic variables were recorded. Furthemore, additional presence points were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database website. Current and future environmental data for the study area were obtained from the Africlim website. Bioclimatic variables (moisture and temperature), monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall were collected from Worldclim synoptic stations website for the period 1970-2000. The aridity index was created from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual rainfall, using spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS. The impact of current and future environmental conditions on favourable Shea trees’ growing area was assessed following the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Under the current climate conditions, 80% of Benin territory and 79% of the protected areas were highly favourable for Shea trees growing and conservation. However, all climate scenarios projected the significant decrease of 14% to 19% of the distribution of favourable for Shea tree growing area and 26% to 30% of the protected areas by 2055 in favour of non-favourable for the trees’ distribution. The protection of habitats favourable for the species development, coupled with a quick restoration of the species through the use of appropriate vegetative propagation techniques are required to sustain the species’ conservation in Benin and maintain farmers’ livelihood.
文摘It is urgent to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to actively deal with global warming.This paper investigates Shandong Province,a typical province of energy consumption,as the research object,aiming to optimize total energy consumption and consumption structure in the future planning year.This paper constructs a methodological system to optimize energy consumption structure in Shandong Province,using a scenario combination of system dynamics(SD)prediction and analysis based on the coupling of key scenario elements affecting different energy consumption from different perspectives.Structural equation modeling and SD sensitivity analysis indicate an overlap between key factors restricting energy consumption.Pairing the key scenario factors can better reflect the internal mechanism of energy consumption development.Based on this,21 scenarios based on different combinations of the key elements are constructed.Through SD prediction and analysis,the most suitable scenario mode for optimizing energy consumption structure in Shandong Province is selected.This paper provides a suitable development range for the average gross domestic product growth rate,the proportion of secondary industry,energy consumption intensity of secondary industry,and the urbanization rate for Shandong Province.This paper can provide a reference for similar research and the government in formulating the optimization scheme of energy consumption structure.
文摘This paper proposes two migration scenarios from China ring networks to ASON mesh networks. In our quantitative analysis with ASON/GMPLS simulator, a subnetwork protection scheme achieved best balanced performance in resource utilization and restoration time.
文摘This paper studies the current trade war between China and the US from a historical standpoint.By comparing the ongoing trade war with similar trade conflicts in history,we reveal three major causes,with varying degrees of importance,from both economic and political perspectives.The trade war can principally be attributed to trade imbalances,the US midterm elections and rivalry over global economic dominance.As the fundamental conflicts between China and the US cannot be easily resolved,we hold a pessimistic view on the complete settlement of the trade war.In this paper,we perform a scenario analysis,which shows that in the worst-case scenario,China will suffer a 1.1%decrease in employment and a 1%GDP loss,which are not negligible,but manageable for China.
基金The paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under grant No.71473155the New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in China’s Shaanxi Province with No.2016KJXX-142016 Annual Basic Scientific Research Project of Xidian University with No.JB160603.
文摘In view of the abrupt and phased features of natural gas consumption,this paper attempts to predict natural gas consumption in China with a refined forecasting approach.First,we establish a Markov switching(MS)model to identify the phase characteristics after eliminating change points in the natural gas consumption sequence,using the product partition model(PPM).The results show that there are"rapid growth"and"slow growth"regimes in the development process of natural gas consumption in China.Second,the Bayesian model average(BMA)method is employed to determine the core determinants of natural gas consumption under sub-regimes,and it is determined that there are significant differences in the influencing factors under different regimes and periods.Third,this paper establishes the BMA model of the"rapid growth"regime after predicting the state of future natural gas consumption in China.We find that,compared to some other models,the BMA model that fully recognizes the regime without considering change points has the best predictive performance.Finally,the results of static and dynamic scenario analyses show that natural gas consumption continues to rise in 2019 and has obvious seasonal charac-teristics,while possible ultra-rapid growth of consumption in the future provides a new requirement for the supply of natural gas.
