On May 22,2021,the M_(S)7.4 earthquake occurred in Madoi County,Qinghai Province;it was another strong event that occurred within the Bayan Har block after the Dari M_(S)7.7 earthquake in 1947.An earthquake is bound t...On May 22,2021,the M_(S)7.4 earthquake occurred in Madoi County,Qinghai Province;it was another strong event that occurred within the Bayan Har block after the Dari M_(S)7.7 earthquake in 1947.An earthquake is bound to cast stress to the surrounding faults,thus affecting the regional seismic hazard.To understand these issues,a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the eastern Bayan Har block and its adjacent areas was constructed.Based on the co-seismic rupture model of the Madoi earthquake,we analyzed the co-and postseismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Madoi earthquake on the surrounding major faults.The results show that the Madoi earthquake caused significant co-seismic stress increases in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault(>10 kPa),which exceeded the proposed threshold of stress triggering.By integrating the accumulation rate of the inter-seismic tectonic stress,we conclude that the Madoi earthquake caused future strong earthquakes in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault to advance by 55.6-623 and 24.7-123 a,respectively.Combined with the influence of the Madoi earthquake and the elapsed time of the last strong earthquake,these two segments have approached or even exceeded the recurrence interval of the fault prescribed by previous research.In the future,it is necessary to focus greater attention on the seismic hazard of the Maqin-Maqu and Tuosuo Lake segments.This study provides a mechanical reference to understand the seismic hazard of the East Kunlun fault in the future,particularly to determine the seismic potential region.展开更多
Many older highway bridges in the United States(US)are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake.According to the most recentAmerican Society of Civil Eng...Many older highway bridges in the United States(US)are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake.According to the most recentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers’infrastructure report card,one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones.To improve this situation,at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities.In this study,a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework.A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state.As an empirical case study,the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US,Charleston,South Carolina.The developed modeling framework,on average,will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45%with a cost increase of only$15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only$32m for the Mw 7.0 event.展开更多
A robust estimation of the earthquake location, seismic moment, and fault geometry is essential for objective seismic hazard assessment. Seismic events in a remote location, specifically in the absence of seismic and ...A robust estimation of the earthquake location, seismic moment, and fault geometry is essential for objective seismic hazard assessment. Seismic events in a remote location, specifically in the absence of seismic and GNSS networks, can be investigated effectively using the In SAR-based technique. This study adopts the Differential Interferometric SAR(DIn SAR) technique to quantify the co-seismic surface displacement caused by the June 21, 2022, Khōst M_(W)6 earthquake that occurred along the western plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plate. The interferograms show that the maximum surface deformation occurred on the northwest and southwest of the fault line. From coherence, the Line of Sight(LOS) displacement, and the co-seismic surface displacement analysis, it has been observed that surface deformation was most pronounced in the southwest region of the fault line, and the surface has moved to the opposite direction along the fault line, which indicates a sinistral slightly oblique strike-slip movement. This In SAR-based observation appears consistent with the seismic waveforms derived from co-seismic surface displacements. Further, it has been argued that the slip deficit accumulated during the period of the last about 48 years along the frontal region of the northward extension of the Suleiman range and associated fault zone is qualitatively estimated at about 1.5 m, which is consistent with the seismic waveforms derived finite slip model.展开更多
Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,develo...Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.展开更多
In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault ...In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.展开更多
Recently in 2020, in southern Saudi Arabia three felt earthquakes occurred in Asir region, in the Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah, and AL-Shuqiq area, of magnitude 3.45, 3.1, and 3.5, respectively. The most interesting e...Recently in 2020, in southern Saudi Arabia three felt earthquakes occurred in Asir region, in the Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah, and AL-Shuqiq area, of magnitude 3.45, 3.1, and 3.5, respectively. The most interesting event was the earthquake that occurred in Khamis Mushait area, along a lake formed behind the Tadhah Dam (~7 km), fearing any damage to the dam’s body and the consequent destruction. Moment tensors for each event were computed for determining fault plane solutions, seismic moment, moment magnitude (Mw) and the CLVD ratio. In addition, the frequency contents in the waveforms of each event were identified. The obtained focal mechanisms represent different styles of faulting, normal movement with strike slip and strike slip with reverse. These tectonic movements on faults parallel to the Red Sea refer to the tensional forces due to the Red Sea rift system. These events occurred due to a natural tectonic movement, with considering the Khamis Mushait event as an induced event because of the lake behind the Dam. Many previous seismic hazard assessment studies have been conducted in southern Saudi Arabia without considering these recent seismic sources. Thus, our study provides new information related to detecting of new active seismic sources, which contributes to updating studies of seismic risk assessment in this region. In addition, our study pushes us to establish other additional seismic stations around these new seismic sources. This in turn will play a pivotal role in controlling seismic sources and then reassessing the seismic hazard in southern Saudi Arabia.展开更多
Post-disaster reconstruction is a topic of global concern,and traditional villages have special heritage attributes and need to face more requirements and obstacles in post-disaster reconstruction.This paper summarize...Post-disaster reconstruction is a topic of global concern,and traditional villages have special heritage attributes and need to face more requirements and obstacles in post-disaster reconstruction.This paper summarizes four concepts based on the research on post-disaster reconstruction both domestically and internationally,as well as the recovery and reconstruction of cultural heritage.Through a field survey of traditional villages in the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake-stricken area,it is found that there are problems such as insufficient awareness of heritage value,misalignment of scientific reconstruction technology,and insufficient protection of reconstruction elements during the reconstruction process.Traditional villages face the risk of declining or even loss of heritage value.In order to effectively protect traditional villages and inherit the carrier of regional culture,four targeted reconstruction response strategies are proposed,i.e.,to"establish special planning for traditional village preservation","emphasize recovery of the authenticity of village heritage","ensure elements for village heritage recovery"and"promote the activation and utilization of village heritage",based on the problems discovered during the survey and the four concepts summarized in the research on post-disaster reconstruction of traditional villages.The research results hope to provide useful reference for ancient cultural areas affected by earthquakes on how to protect cultural heritage during the post-disaster reconstruction process.展开更多
We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclu...We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.展开更多
Based on the intrinsic characters of the fractal and chaotic dynamic systems of seismic dissipated energy active intensity E d and active intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e,the evolutional laws of the...Based on the intrinsic characters of the fractal and chaotic dynamic systems of seismic dissipated energy active intensity E d and active intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e,the evolutional laws of the long term system and short term system behavior are discussed respectively.Active and passive earthquake control parameters,maintenance decision and inputted energy optimization of system are discussed by means of the predictive results of short term behavior in practical engineering structures; earthquake resistant design probability,maintenance probability,seismic risk analysis and seismic hazard analysis are also discussed by means of the predictive results of long term behavior probability in practical engineering structures.The content might be valuable for the practical applications of earthquake resistance theory and method,and for earthquake control and earthquake reduction problems in practical engineering structures.展开更多
West Africa is considered a region of low seismicity. However, the monitoring of earthquake activity by local seismic arrays began very early (as early as 1914) in West Africa but seismic catalogs are very incomplete....West Africa is considered a region of low seismicity. However, the monitoring of earthquake activity by local seismic arrays began very early (as early as 1914) in West Africa but seismic catalogs are very incomplete. In 1991, Bertil studied the seismicity of West Africa based on networks of seismic stations in Ivory Coast and neighboring countries. The reference work of Ambraseys and Adams as well as the recent earthquakes given by the international data centres on the seismicity of West Africa were also used for the computations of earthquake hazard parameters. Different earthquake event data have been compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span><sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">w</span></sub></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">). The obtained catalog covers a period of over four centuries (1615-2021) and contains large historical events and recent complete observations. The complete catalog part has been subdivided into four complete subcatalogs with each a level of completeness. The minimum magnitude and the maximum observed magnitude are equal to 2.89 and 6.8 respectively for the whole catalog. The seismic code software developed by Kijko was used to calculate the earthquake hazard parameters. The results give a </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">b</span></i></span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span><span><span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">value of 0.83 ± 0.08 for the whole period and preliminary seismic hazards curves are also plotted for re</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">turn periods 25, 50 and 100 years. This is a good and practical example</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> showing that this procedure can be used for seismic hazard assessment in West Africa.展开更多
Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility...Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility that considers multi-dimensional performance limit state parameters and makes a first attempt to develop fragility curves for a multi-span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge considering two performance limit state parameters: column ductility and transverse deformation in the abutments. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the performance limit states, which are compared with the seismic response parameters in the calculation of fragility, should be properly modeled as randomly interdependent variables instead of deterministic quantities. The sensitivity of fragility curves is also investigated when the dependency between the limit states is different. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to describe the vulnerable behavior of bridges which are sensitive to multiple response parameters and that the fragility information generated by this method will be more reliable and likely to be implemented into transportation network loss estimation.展开更多
In the paper results of passive tomography calculations have been presented to assess rockburst hazard and locate high seismic activity zones in the vicinity of longwall 306 in Zabrze Bielszowice coal mine. The area o...In the paper results of passive tomography calculations have been presented to assess rockburst hazard and locate high seismic activity zones in the vicinity of longwall 306 in Zabrze Bielszowice coal mine. The area of study was 1000 m in X direction by 900 m in Y direction. The zones of high values of P-wave propagation velocity have been found to correlate with the distribution of large seismic tremors.展开更多
The eastern Himalayan syntaxis is one of the most tectonically active and earthquake-prone regions on Earth where earthquake-induced geological disasters occur frequently and caused great damages. With the planning an...The eastern Himalayan syntaxis is one of the most tectonically active and earthquake-prone regions on Earth where earthquake-induced geological disasters occur frequently and caused great damages. With the planning and construction of Sichuan-Tibet highway, Sichuan-Tibet railway and hydropower development on the Yarlung Zangbo River etc. in recent years, it is very important to evaluate the seismic landslide hazard of this region. In this paper, a seismic landslide hazard map is produced based on seismic geological background analysis and field investigation using Newmark method with 10% PGA exceedance probabilities in future 50 years by considering the influence of river erosion, active faults and seismic amplification for the first time. The results show that the areas prone to seismic landslides are distributed on steep slopes along the drainages and the glacier horns as well as ridges on the mountains. The seismic landslide hazard map produced in this study not only predicts the most prone seismic landslide areas in the future 50 years but also provides a reference for mitigation strategies to reduce the exposure of the new building and planning projects to seismic landslides.展开更多
Since there are few studies on the performance-based seismic evaluation of the long-span suspension bridge system under two-level earthquake hazard in Chinese code,the developed procedure of this study can be regarded...Since there are few studies on the performance-based seismic evaluation of the long-span suspension bridge system under two-level earthquake hazard in Chinese code,the developed procedure of this study can be regarded as a general program to assess the seismic performance of the overall system for long-span suspension bridges.In the procedure,the probabilistic seismic demand models of multiple bridge components were developed by nonlinear time-history analyses incorporating the related uncertainties,and the component-level fragility curves were calculated by the reasonable definition of limit states of the corresponding components in combination with seismic hazard analysis.The bridge repair cost ratios used to evaluate the system seismic performance were derived through the performance-based methodology and the damage probability of critical components.Furthermore,the repair cost ratios of the overall bridge system that was retrofitted with fluid viscous dampers for the main bridge and changed restraint systems for the approach bridges were compared.The results show that peak ground velocity and peak ground acceleration can be selected as the optimal intensity measurements of long-span suspension bridges using the TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution).The bridge repair cost ratios can serve as accurate evaluation indicators to provide an efficient evaluation of retrofit measures.The seismic evaluation of long-span bridges is misled when ignoring the interaction of adjacent structures.However,the repair cost ratios of a bridge system that has optimum seismic performance are less sensitive to the relative importance of adjacent structures.展开更多
Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situati...Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is varied with seasons, seismic landslide hazard assessments are carried out for frequent, occasional and rare earthquake occurrences in the Tianshui region, which can provide a valuable reference for landslide hazard management and infrastructure design in mountainous seismic zones.展开更多
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored a large,multi-year project conducted by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) titled'Seismic Vulnerability of New Highway Cons...The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored a large,multi-year project conducted by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) titled'Seismic Vulnerability of New Highway Construction'(MCEER Project 112),which was completed in 1998.MCEER coordinated the work of many researchers,who performed studies on the seismic design and vulnerability analysis of highway bridges,tunnels,and retaining structures. Extensive research was conducted to provide revisions and improvements to current design and detailing approaches and national design specifications for highway bridges.The program included both analytical and experimental studies,and addressed seismic hazard exposure and ground motion input for the U.S.highway system;foundation design and soil behavior: structural importance,analysis,and response:structural design issues and details;and structural design criteria.展开更多
Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were c...Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can...The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city＇s water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis（DSHA）.A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.展开更多
As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment...As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.展开更多
This paper presents probabilistic assessment of seismically-induced slope displacements considering uncertainties of seismic ground motions and soil properties.A stochastic ground motion model representing both the te...This paper presents probabilistic assessment of seismically-induced slope displacements considering uncertainties of seismic ground motions and soil properties.A stochastic ground motion model representing both the temporal and spectral non-stationarity of earthquake shakings and a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism are integrated to assess Newmark-type slope displacements.A new probabilistic approach that incorporates machine learning in metamodeling technique is proposed,by combining relevance vector machine with polynomial chaos expansions(RVM-PCE).Compared with other PCE methods,the proposed RVM-PCE is shown to be more effective in estimating failure probabilities.The sensitivity and relative influence of each random input parameter to the slope displacements are discussed.Finally,the fragility curves for slope displacements are established for sitespecific soil conditions and earthquake hazard levels.The results indicate that the slope displacement is more sensitive to the intensities and strong shaking durations of seismic ground motions than the frequency contents,and a critical Arias intensity that leads to the maximum annual failure probabilities can be identified by the proposed approach.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(under grants 41874116, 41904007)Science for Earthquake Resilience of China Earthquake Administ (XH20083).
文摘On May 22,2021,the M_(S)7.4 earthquake occurred in Madoi County,Qinghai Province;it was another strong event that occurred within the Bayan Har block after the Dari M_(S)7.7 earthquake in 1947.An earthquake is bound to cast stress to the surrounding faults,thus affecting the regional seismic hazard.To understand these issues,a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the eastern Bayan Har block and its adjacent areas was constructed.Based on the co-seismic rupture model of the Madoi earthquake,we analyzed the co-and postseismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Madoi earthquake on the surrounding major faults.The results show that the Madoi earthquake caused significant co-seismic stress increases in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault(>10 kPa),which exceeded the proposed threshold of stress triggering.By integrating the accumulation rate of the inter-seismic tectonic stress,we conclude that the Madoi earthquake caused future strong earthquakes in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault to advance by 55.6-623 and 24.7-123 a,respectively.Combined with the influence of the Madoi earthquake and the elapsed time of the last strong earthquake,these two segments have approached or even exceeded the recurrence interval of the fault prescribed by previous research.In the future,it is necessary to focus greater attention on the seismic hazard of the Maqin-Maqu and Tuosuo Lake segments.This study provides a mechanical reference to understand the seismic hazard of the East Kunlun fault in the future,particularly to determine the seismic potential region.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation,under Grant No.NSF-1011478.
文摘Many older highway bridges in the United States(US)are inadequate for seismic loads and could be severely damaged or collapsed in a relatively small earthquake.According to the most recentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers’infrastructure report card,one-third of the bridges in the US are rated as structurally deficient and many of these structurally deficient bridges are located in seismic zones.To improve this situation,at-risk bridges must be identified and evaluated and effective retrofitting programs should be in place to reduce their seismic vulnerabilities.In this study,a new retrofit strategy decision scheme for highway bridges under seismic hazards is developed and seamlessly integrate the scenario-based seismic analysis of bridges and the traffic network into the proposed optimization modeling framework.A full spectrum of bridge retrofit strategies is considered based on explicit structural assessment for each seismic damage state.As an empirical case study,the proposed retrofit strategy decision scheme is utilized to evaluate the bridge network in one of the active seismic zones in the US,Charleston,South Carolina.The developed modeling framework,on average,will help increase network throughput traffic capacity by 45%with a cost increase of only$15million for the Mw 5.5 event and increase the capacity fourfold with a cost of only$32m for the Mw 7.0 event.
文摘A robust estimation of the earthquake location, seismic moment, and fault geometry is essential for objective seismic hazard assessment. Seismic events in a remote location, specifically in the absence of seismic and GNSS networks, can be investigated effectively using the In SAR-based technique. This study adopts the Differential Interferometric SAR(DIn SAR) technique to quantify the co-seismic surface displacement caused by the June 21, 2022, Khōst M_(W)6 earthquake that occurred along the western plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plate. The interferograms show that the maximum surface deformation occurred on the northwest and southwest of the fault line. From coherence, the Line of Sight(LOS) displacement, and the co-seismic surface displacement analysis, it has been observed that surface deformation was most pronounced in the southwest region of the fault line, and the surface has moved to the opposite direction along the fault line, which indicates a sinistral slightly oblique strike-slip movement. This In SAR-based observation appears consistent with the seismic waveforms derived from co-seismic surface displacements. Further, it has been argued that the slip deficit accumulated during the period of the last about 48 years along the frontal region of the northward extension of the Suleiman range and associated fault zone is qualitatively estimated at about 1.5 m, which is consistent with the seismic waveforms derived finite slip model.
基金the“Seismic hazard assessment of the territories of regions and cities of Kazakhstan on a modern scientific and methodological basis”,program code F.0980,IRN OR11465449The funding source is the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan。
文摘Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
文摘In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.
文摘Recently in 2020, in southern Saudi Arabia three felt earthquakes occurred in Asir region, in the Khamis Mushait, Ahad Rafidah, and AL-Shuqiq area, of magnitude 3.45, 3.1, and 3.5, respectively. The most interesting event was the earthquake that occurred in Khamis Mushait area, along a lake formed behind the Tadhah Dam (~7 km), fearing any damage to the dam’s body and the consequent destruction. Moment tensors for each event were computed for determining fault plane solutions, seismic moment, moment magnitude (Mw) and the CLVD ratio. In addition, the frequency contents in the waveforms of each event were identified. The obtained focal mechanisms represent different styles of faulting, normal movement with strike slip and strike slip with reverse. These tectonic movements on faults parallel to the Red Sea refer to the tensional forces due to the Red Sea rift system. These events occurred due to a natural tectonic movement, with considering the Khamis Mushait event as an induced event because of the lake behind the Dam. Many previous seismic hazard assessment studies have been conducted in southern Saudi Arabia without considering these recent seismic sources. Thus, our study provides new information related to detecting of new active seismic sources, which contributes to updating studies of seismic risk assessment in this region. In addition, our study pushes us to establish other additional seismic stations around these new seismic sources. This in turn will play a pivotal role in controlling seismic sources and then reassessing the seismic hazard in southern Saudi Arabia.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the project“Research on Urban Spatial Coupling Mechanism Between Urban Epidemic Spreading and Vulnerability and Planning Response in Chengdu-Chongqing Area”(Grant No.52078423)the Major Program of Sichuan Provincial Scientific Research under the Project“Research and Demonstration of Resilient Collaborative Planning and Design for Park Cities”(Grant No.2020YFS0054)the Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Innovation Platform and Talent Plan"Research on the Construction and Development Strategies of Several Major Infrastructure Systems for New Smart Cities"(Grant No.2022JDR0356).
文摘Post-disaster reconstruction is a topic of global concern,and traditional villages have special heritage attributes and need to face more requirements and obstacles in post-disaster reconstruction.This paper summarizes four concepts based on the research on post-disaster reconstruction both domestically and internationally,as well as the recovery and reconstruction of cultural heritage.Through a field survey of traditional villages in the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake-stricken area,it is found that there are problems such as insufficient awareness of heritage value,misalignment of scientific reconstruction technology,and insufficient protection of reconstruction elements during the reconstruction process.Traditional villages face the risk of declining or even loss of heritage value.In order to effectively protect traditional villages and inherit the carrier of regional culture,four targeted reconstruction response strategies are proposed,i.e.,to"establish special planning for traditional village preservation","emphasize recovery of the authenticity of village heritage","ensure elements for village heritage recovery"and"promote the activation and utilization of village heritage",based on the problems discovered during the survey and the four concepts summarized in the research on post-disaster reconstruction of traditional villages.The research results hope to provide useful reference for ancient cultural areas affected by earthquakes on how to protect cultural heritage during the post-disaster reconstruction process.
基金supported by the Russian Science Foundationproject no.20-17-00180-P“Development of a scenario approach to the tasks of seismic hazard and risk assessment”。
文摘We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.
文摘Based on the intrinsic characters of the fractal and chaotic dynamic systems of seismic dissipated energy active intensity E d and active intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e,the evolutional laws of the long term system and short term system behavior are discussed respectively.Active and passive earthquake control parameters,maintenance decision and inputted energy optimization of system are discussed by means of the predictive results of short term behavior in practical engineering structures; earthquake resistant design probability,maintenance probability,seismic risk analysis and seismic hazard analysis are also discussed by means of the predictive results of long term behavior probability in practical engineering structures.The content might be valuable for the practical applications of earthquake resistance theory and method,and for earthquake control and earthquake reduction problems in practical engineering structures.
文摘West Africa is considered a region of low seismicity. However, the monitoring of earthquake activity by local seismic arrays began very early (as early as 1914) in West Africa but seismic catalogs are very incomplete. In 1991, Bertil studied the seismicity of West Africa based on networks of seismic stations in Ivory Coast and neighboring countries. The reference work of Ambraseys and Adams as well as the recent earthquakes given by the international data centres on the seismicity of West Africa were also used for the computations of earthquake hazard parameters. Different earthquake event data have been compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (</span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">M</span><sub><span style="font-family:Verdana;">w</span></sub></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">). The obtained catalog covers a period of over four centuries (1615-2021) and contains large historical events and recent complete observations. The complete catalog part has been subdivided into four complete subcatalogs with each a level of completeness. The minimum magnitude and the maximum observed magnitude are equal to 2.89 and 6.8 respectively for the whole catalog. The seismic code software developed by Kijko was used to calculate the earthquake hazard parameters. The results give a </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">b</span></i></span></span><span><span><span> </span></span></span><span><span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">value of 0.83 ± 0.08 for the whole period and preliminary seismic hazards curves are also plotted for re</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">turn periods 25, 50 and 100 years. This is a good and practical example</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> showing that this procedure can be used for seismic hazard assessment in West Africa.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Award Number 50878184National High Technology Research and Development Program (863 Program) of China Under Grant No. 2006AA04Z437Graduate Starting Seed Fund of Northwestern Polytechnical University Under the Grant No. Z2012059
文摘Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility that considers multi-dimensional performance limit state parameters and makes a first attempt to develop fragility curves for a multi-span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge considering two performance limit state parameters: column ductility and transverse deformation in the abutments. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the performance limit states, which are compared with the seismic response parameters in the calculation of fragility, should be properly modeled as randomly interdependent variables instead of deterministic quantities. The sensitivity of fragility curves is also investigated when the dependency between the limit states is different. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to describe the vulnerable behavior of bridges which are sensitive to multiple response parameters and that the fragility information generated by this method will be more reliable and likely to be implemented into transportation network loss estimation.
文摘In the paper results of passive tomography calculations have been presented to assess rockburst hazard and locate high seismic activity zones in the vicinity of longwall 306 in Zabrze Bielszowice coal mine. The area of study was 1000 m in X direction by 900 m in Y direction. The zones of high values of P-wave propagation velocity have been found to correlate with the distribution of large seismic tremors.
基金supported by the Project of the 12th Five-year National Sci-Tech Support Plan of China(No.2011BAK12B09)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41402321,41502313)+1 种基金the Project of China Geological Survey(No.12120113038000)China Special Project of Basic Work of Science and Technology(No.2011FY110100-2)
文摘The eastern Himalayan syntaxis is one of the most tectonically active and earthquake-prone regions on Earth where earthquake-induced geological disasters occur frequently and caused great damages. With the planning and construction of Sichuan-Tibet highway, Sichuan-Tibet railway and hydropower development on the Yarlung Zangbo River etc. in recent years, it is very important to evaluate the seismic landslide hazard of this region. In this paper, a seismic landslide hazard map is produced based on seismic geological background analysis and field investigation using Newmark method with 10% PGA exceedance probabilities in future 50 years by considering the influence of river erosion, active faults and seismic amplification for the first time. The results show that the areas prone to seismic landslides are distributed on steep slopes along the drainages and the glacier horns as well as ridges on the mountains. The seismic landslide hazard map produced in this study not only predicts the most prone seismic landslide areas in the future 50 years but also provides a reference for mitigation strategies to reduce the exposure of the new building and planning projects to seismic landslides.
基金Basic Scientific Research Service Project of Centrallevel Public Welfare Research Institute(No.2016-9018)
文摘Since there are few studies on the performance-based seismic evaluation of the long-span suspension bridge system under two-level earthquake hazard in Chinese code,the developed procedure of this study can be regarded as a general program to assess the seismic performance of the overall system for long-span suspension bridges.In the procedure,the probabilistic seismic demand models of multiple bridge components were developed by nonlinear time-history analyses incorporating the related uncertainties,and the component-level fragility curves were calculated by the reasonable definition of limit states of the corresponding components in combination with seismic hazard analysis.The bridge repair cost ratios used to evaluate the system seismic performance were derived through the performance-based methodology and the damage probability of critical components.Furthermore,the repair cost ratios of the overall bridge system that was retrofitted with fluid viscous dampers for the main bridge and changed restraint systems for the approach bridges were compared.The results show that peak ground velocity and peak ground acceleration can be selected as the optimal intensity measurements of long-span suspension bridges using the TOPSIS(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution).The bridge repair cost ratios can serve as accurate evaluation indicators to provide an efficient evaluation of retrofit measures.The seismic evaluation of long-span bridges is misled when ignoring the interaction of adjacent structures.However,the repair cost ratios of a bridge system that has optimum seismic performance are less sensitive to the relative importance of adjacent structures.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program (Grants No. 2018YFC1504601)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 41572313 and 41702343)China Geological Survey Project (Grant No. DD20190717)
文摘Probabilistic analysis in the field of seismic landslide hazard assessment is often based on an estimate of uncertainties of geological, geotechnical,geomorphological and seismological parameters.However, real situations are very complex and thus uncertainties of some parameters such as water content conditions and critical displacement are difficult to describe with accurate mathematical models. In this study, we present a probabilistic methodology based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and the Newmark’s displacement model. The Tianshui seismic zone(105°00′-106°00′ E, 34°20′-34°40′ N) in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an example. Arias intensity with three standard probabilities of exceedance(63%, 10%, and 2% in 50 years) in accordance with building design provisions were used to compute Newmark displacements by incorporating the effects of topographic amplification.Probable scenarios of water content condition were considered and three water content conditions(dry,wet and saturated) were adopted to simulate the effect of pore-water on slope. The influence of 5 cm and 10 cm critical displacements were investigated in order to analyze the sensitivity of critical displacement to the probabilities of earthquake-induced landslide occurrence. The results show that water content in particular, have a great influence on the distribution of high seismic landslide hazard areas. Generally, the dry coverage analysis represents a lower bound for susceptibility and hazard assessment, and the saturated coverage analysis represents an upper bound to some extent. Moreover, high seismic landslide hazard areas are also influenced by the critical displacements. The slope failure probabilities during future earthquakes with critical displacements of 5 cm can increase by a factor of 1.2 to 2.3 as compared to that of 10 cm. It suggests that more efforts are required in order to obtain reasonable threshold values for slope failure. Considering the probable scenarios of water content condition which is varied with seasons, seismic landslide hazard assessments are carried out for frequent, occasional and rare earthquake occurrences in the Tianshui region, which can provide a valuable reference for landslide hazard management and infrastructure design in mountainous seismic zones.
基金the Federal Highway Administration under contract number DTFH61-92-C-00112.
文摘The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored a large,multi-year project conducted by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) titled'Seismic Vulnerability of New Highway Construction'(MCEER Project 112),which was completed in 1998.MCEER coordinated the work of many researchers,who performed studies on the seismic design and vulnerability analysis of highway bridges,tunnels,and retaining structures. Extensive research was conducted to provide revisions and improvements to current design and detailing approaches and national design specifications for highway bridges.The program included both analytical and experimental studies,and addressed seismic hazard exposure and ground motion input for the U.S.highway system;foundation design and soil behavior: structural importance,analysis,and response:structural design issues and details;and structural design criteria.
基金supported by the China Three Gorges Corporation(SXSN/2377)
文摘Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.
基金supported by the National Scientific and Technological support project MST (2006BAC13B02-0106)spe-cial research funds from the Public Institute of China,Institute of Geophysics (IGP),China Earthquake Ad-ministration (CEA) (DQJB06A01)The contribution No. is 10FE3004,IGP,CEA
文摘The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city＇s water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis（DSHA）.A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.
基金"Development of the Map of General Seismic Zoning in the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan" (state registration 0113RK01142)"Development of the map of Seismic Microzoning of the Territory of Almaty City"(state registration 0115RK02701)funded within the state funding
文摘As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.
基金financially supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(Project No.15212418)。
文摘This paper presents probabilistic assessment of seismically-induced slope displacements considering uncertainties of seismic ground motions and soil properties.A stochastic ground motion model representing both the temporal and spectral non-stationarity of earthquake shakings and a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism are integrated to assess Newmark-type slope displacements.A new probabilistic approach that incorporates machine learning in metamodeling technique is proposed,by combining relevance vector machine with polynomial chaos expansions(RVM-PCE).Compared with other PCE methods,the proposed RVM-PCE is shown to be more effective in estimating failure probabilities.The sensitivity and relative influence of each random input parameter to the slope displacements are discussed.Finally,the fragility curves for slope displacements are established for sitespecific soil conditions and earthquake hazard levels.The results indicate that the slope displacement is more sensitive to the intensities and strong shaking durations of seismic ground motions than the frequency contents,and a critical Arias intensity that leads to the maximum annual failure probabilities can be identified by the proposed approach.
