By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ej...By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.展开更多
In this study,we investigate the solar cycle dependence of the sunrise ionospheric zonal electric fields at the equator under geomagnetically quiet conditions.Simulations using the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodyn...In this study,we investigate the solar cycle dependence of the sunrise ionospheric zonal electric fields at the equator under geomagnetically quiet conditions.Simulations using the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamics General Circulation Model(TIEGCM)reveal that the equatorial eastward electric field at sunrise decreases with the increase in solar activity,independent of longitude,season,and lower atmospheric tides.The solar cycle dependence of the sunrise zonal electric field is mainly related to the zonal wind dynamo.Moreover,this solar cycle dependence of sunrise electric fields at the equator is dominated by the corresponding variation in the F-region dynamo because the response of conductivity and neutral winds near sunrise to increasing solar flux is stronger in the F-region than in the E-region,although the sunrise eastward enhancement of electric fields is mainly driven by the E-region zonal wind dynamo.Specifically,the westward gradient of low-latitude F-region neutral winds near the dawn terminator tends to produce westward electric fields in the equatorial region that are more pronounced at solar maximum,whereas the midlatitude E-region dynamo induces an eastward enhancement of sunrise electric fields at the equator that decreases slightly with increasing solar activity.This study also reveals that the reason the eastward enhancement of equatorial zonal electric fields near dawn and dusk terminators show opposite solar cycle dependence is because of their different generation mechanisms.展开更多
To observe the level of interaction between the solar wind and the geomagnetic activity, we analyzed the distribution of the solar wind speeds according to the different classes of geomagnetic activity and the differe...To observe the level of interaction between the solar wind and the geomagnetic activity, we analyzed the distribution of the solar wind speeds according to the different classes of geomagnetic activity and the different phases of solar activity. We found that, the magnetic quiet activity reccord 80% of the solar wind speeds V s observed 88% of solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. The shock activity observes 82% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. About 70% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s, are observed in the corotating activity class. The cloud shock activity and fluctuating activity classes observed respectively 37% and 55% of the wind speeds V > 450 km/s. Furthermore, slow solar winds are mainly observed at the minimum phase of each solar cycle;but exceptionally the solar maximum phase of solar cycle 24, records a significant rate of slow solar wind. Shock winds are mainly observed around the solar maximum and recurrent winds are mainly observed at the descending phase of the solar cycle. Corotating stable winds and moderate shock winds dominate respectively at the descending phase and at the maximum phase.展开更多
For the 22-year solar cycle oscillation there is no external time dependent source. A nonlinear oscillation, the solar cycle must be generated internally, and Babcock-Leighton models apply an artificial nonlinear sour...For the 22-year solar cycle oscillation there is no external time dependent source. A nonlinear oscillation, the solar cycle must be generated internally, and Babcock-Leighton models apply an artificial nonlinear source term that can simulate the observations—which leaves open the question of the actual source mechanism for the solar cycle. Addressing this question, we propose to take guidance from the wave mechanism that generates the 2-year Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Earth atmosphere. Upward propagating gravity waves, eastward and westward, deposit momentum to generate the observed zonal wind oscillation. On the Sun, helioseismology has provided a thorough understanding of the acoustic p-waves, which propagate down into the convective envelope guided by the increasing temperature and related propagation velocity. Near the tachocline with low turbulent viscosity, the waves propagating eastward and westward can produce an axisymmetric 22-year oscillation of the zonal flow velocities that can generate the magnetic solar dynamo. Following the Earth model, waves in opposite directions can generate in the Sun wind and magnetic field oscillations in opposite directions, the proposition of a potential solar cycle mechanism.展开更多
Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number fr...Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dst≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz〈-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.展开更多
Solar radiation is a forcing of the climate system with a quasi-11-year period.As a quasi-period forcing,the influence of the phase of the solar cycle on the ocean system is an interesting topic of study.In this paper...Solar radiation is a forcing of the climate system with a quasi-11-year period.As a quasi-period forcing,the influence of the phase of the solar cycle on the ocean system is an interesting topic of study.In this paper,the authors investigate a particular feature,the ocean heat content（OHC）anomaly,in different phases of the total solar irradiance（TSI） cycle.The results show that almost opposite spatial patterns appear in the tropical Pacific during the ascending and declining phases of the TSI cycle.Further analysis reveals the presence of the quasi-decadal（11-year） solar signal in the SST,OHC and surface zonal wind anomaly field over the tropical Pacific with a high level of statistical confidence（95%）.It is noted that the maximum centers of the ocean temperature anomaly are trapped in the upper ocean above the main pycnocline,in which the variations of OHC are related closely with zonal wind and ocean currents.展开更多
It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol...It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.展开更多
Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions ...Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).展开更多
The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of Solar cycles and season fluctuations on earthquakes, in a location named South Atlantic anomaly. The area used herein is delimited 0N, ?50S, 40E, ?90W, and is the...The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of Solar cycles and season fluctuations on earthquakes, in a location named South Atlantic anomaly. The area used herein is delimited 0N, ?50S, 40E, ?90W, and is the region with the Earth’s lowest magnetic field, which allows a higher number of ionized particles to reach the ionosphere. The period chosen is 1996-2018, comprising two Solar Cycles and the respective solar maxima in 2000 and 2014. The first results pointed out that occurrences of swarm location depending from the depth search. Shallow earthquakes developed swarms near the shorelines and deep depth inland. A mathematical model was developed to statistically evaluate the changes in the earthquakes increases. The outcome resolutions showed Summer and Fall are the most important seasons for tremors in this region. The period analyzed have an extended solar minimum occurred 2003-2010, we analyzed the evolution of earthquakes occurrences under the South Atlantic anomaly.展开更多
This paper aims to establish a comparison between both geomagnetic activity classification methods on foF2 diurnal variation over solar cycle phases. It concerns first a comparison of geomagnetic activity occurrences ...This paper aims to establish a comparison between both geomagnetic activity classification methods on foF2 diurnal variation over solar cycle phases. It concerns first a comparison of geomagnetic activity occurrences according to both classification methods;and second the geomagnetic effect on foF2 diurnal variation profiles as defined for the equatorial latitudes. The occurrences of the different disturbed geomagnetic activities (recurrent activity (RA), shock activity (SA) and fluctuant activity (FA)) according to both classifications (ancient classification (AC) and new classification (NC)) have been studied at Dakar ionosonde station (Lat: 14.8°N;Long: 342.6°E). Regarding both classifications, the RA occurs more during the decreasing phase. And it’s observed that the RA occurs the most during the increasing phase for the AC and during the minimum phase for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence (<img src="Edit_e4627ea9-9a9a-4473-9017-202d04a16377.bmp" alt="" /><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">11.1%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the negative value which is observed during the increasing phase) and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+16.74%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). The occurrence of the SA in relation with both classifications is the lowest during the minimum phase and the maximum occurrence is observed during the maximum and decreasing phases, for the AC, with a value close to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">37%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> and for the NC at the maximum phase with a percentage of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">54.47%</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. The maximum gap of occurrence (</span><img src="Edit_20fa141b-ecee-4e06-8024-144ba0969395.bmp" alt="" /></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17.85%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the negative value which is observed at maximum phase) and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+13.53%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). For both classifications, the FA occurs the least during the minimum phase and the most during the maximum phase for the AC and at maximum and decreasing phases with percentage values of occurrence of roughly </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">37%</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence (</span><img src="Edit_eecb8939-783e-4d43-b92c-80c528c1890b.bmp" alt="" /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span>10% (for the negative value which is observed during the decreasing phase) and </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+20.11%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the maximum phase). foF2 diurnal profiles throughout solar cycle phases concerning the AC and the NC have been compared. The FA diurnal profiles don’t present a difference. The RA and the SA present a difference during minimum and increasing phases and the least at maximum and decreasing phases.</span></span></span>展开更多
In this paper, we analyzed diurnal and annual seasonal variations of solar wind parameters such as interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), proton density (N), solar wind speed (V) and solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdym), ...In this paper, we analyzed diurnal and annual seasonal variations of solar wind parameters such as interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), proton density (N), solar wind speed (V) and solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdym), during the solar cycles 23 and 24. Our study shows that strong geomagnetic disturbances are observed at the equinoxes during both solar cycles. The highest proton densities are observed at solstices during both solar cycles. The greatest solar wind speeds are observed at the equinoxes of solar cycle 23 and at the solstices of solar cycle 24. The highest solar wind dynamic pressures are observed at the solstices of both solar cycles. We also observed an asymmetrical evolution of the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters during the two cycles, except for the proton density. Our investigations also highlight the fact that the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters are significant at solar cycle 23 compared to solar cycle 24 characterized by a global weak in solar plasma conditions since the deep minimum that followed the solar cycle 23 leading to an absence of a persistent polar coronal hole. The drop observed in polar field and solar winds parameters during solar cycle 24 is reproduced on seasons (solstices and equinoxes). The solar cycle 23 and 24 appear to be two magnetically opposite solar cycles regardless the time scales.展开更多
This paper deals with TEC variability during fluctuating geomagnetic events (FE) during solar cycle 24 at Koudougou station (lat: 12<sup>o</sup>15'N;Geo long: -2<sup>o</sup>20'E). The s...This paper deals with TEC variability during fluctuating geomagnetic events (FE) during solar cycle 24 at Koudougou station (lat: 12<sup>o</sup>15'N;Geo long: -2<sup>o</sup>20'E). The study was done by comparing TEC variations during FE days with those of quiet days (QA). Comparison was made taking into account solar phases’ and seasons’ influences. FE’s and QA’s TEC curves are characterized by dome profiles. All graphs show two troughs, one in the morning (0500 LT) and the second in the evening (around 2000 LT) and a peak around 1400 LT during all solar phases and winter months and around 1500 LT for the remaining seasons. Both troughs are caused by the decrease of the photo ionization and an increase of the recombination phenomena, as well for FE as for QA periods. FE cause positive storms during all solar phases as well as during seasons and some negative storms during spring and summer months and minimum and maximum solar phases.展开更多
This paper investigates the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the critical frequency at low latitudes in the African region. The variability of the critical frequency of the...This paper investigates the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the critical frequency at low latitudes in the African region. The variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere (foF2) is studied for the different seasons of the phase minimum of solar cycle 22 during quiet geomagnetic activity at the Ouagadougou station. The data used are those provided by the ionosonde and the predictions of the two subprograms: International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) and International Radio-Scientific Union (URSI) of the 2016 version of the International Reference Ionosphere model. This study shows that, in general, URSI and CCIR of the IRI-2016 model are able to reproduce fairly well the variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere at low latitudes during the phase minimum at the Ouagadougou station. However, the model shows an almost homogeneous overestimation of the foF2 during the four seasons studied. The good response is observed between 0700 TL and 1900 TL for the available data. The agreement between the subroutine responses and the observed results is between reasonable and poor. The best match state response is obtained in winter with the CCIR subroutine. These results show that there is a need to improve both CCIR and URSI subroutines of the IRI-2016 model in low latitudes in the African region.展开更多
The major solar energetic particle events for the peak of solar cycle (24) for years (2012-2015) are analyzed by using the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons (ERNE) detectors and Large Angle and Spectrom...The major solar energetic particle events for the peak of solar cycle (24) for years (2012-2015) are analyzed by using the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons (ERNE) detectors and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board SOHO. It is found that the number of events which satisfies the required condition was 82 events. LASCO give information about Central Position Angle (CPA), Angular Width (AW), the speed of associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their basic features which cataloged in a data base SOHO/LASCO. The logarithmic intensity-time profile of SEP for the peak of solar cycle (24) was provided by ERNE, and from this profile the injection time, width, speed and onset time were estimated. All results that arise from these photometric analysis were statistically analyzed by using the statistical program SPSS (version 19). It have been concluded that 90% of these events were halo (360°) CPA, 1% of North West, 4% South West and 2% North East and South East, as well as it was found that 39% gradual events and 29% impulsive events while 32% were not clear events, and also the acceleration of the energetic particle is not only in the interplanetary but also in the location of the event. We found from the statistical analysis for these events that the acceleration is inversely proportional to speed and the relationship between them is not relevant and also the speed increase in two regions, from year 2012 and 2014. This confirms that the peak of solar cycle (24) really is double peak. All these investigations were employed as data base for the space agencies to protect the solar wind.展开更多
Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accura...Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.展开更多
This paper uses two subsets of ensemble historical-Nat simulations and pi-Control simulations from CMIP5 as well as observational/reanalysis datasets to investigate responses of the tropical Pacific to the 11-yr solar...This paper uses two subsets of ensemble historical-Nat simulations and pi-Control simulations from CMIP5 as well as observational/reanalysis datasets to investigate responses of the tropical Pacific to the 11-yr solar cycle.A statistically significant 11-yr solar signal is found in the upper-ocean layers above the thermocline and tropospheric circulations.A warming response initially appears in the upper layers of the central equatorial Pacific in the solar maximum years in observations,then increases and shifts into the eastern Pacific at lagged 1-3 yr.Meanwhile,an anomalous updraft arises over the western equatorial Pacific and shifts eastwards in the following years with anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent.These lagged responses are confirmed by the historical-Nat simulations,except that the initial signal is located more to the west and all the responses are weaker than the observed.A simplified mixed-layer heat budget analysis based on the historical-Nat simulations suggests that the atmospheric forcing,especially the shortwave radiation,is the major contributor to the initial warming response,and the ocean heat transport effect is responsible for the eastward displacement of the lagged warming responses.In the solar maximum years,the zonal ocean temperature gradient in the western-central Pacific is reduced by the initial warming,and anomalous westerly winds appear over the western equatorial Pacific and extend into the eastern Pacific during the lagged years.These anomalous westerly winds reduce the wind-driven ocean dynamical transport,resulting in the initial warming in the central equatorial Pacific being amplified and the surface warming shifting eastward during the lagged 1-3 yr.展开更多
Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION The observation of the spectra of the SVC sources is very important in the theory of the slowly varying component (SVC) and for the prediction of solar-terrestrial environment. In order to increase th...Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION The observation of the spectra of the SVC sources is very important in the theory of the slowly varying component (SVC) and for the prediction of solar-terrestrial environment. In order to increase the spatial resolution, solar radio astronomers made used of solar eclipses to observe the SVC sources over a wide range of frequencies to ob-展开更多
Silver fir(Abies alba Mill.)is a flexible European tree species,mainly vegetating within the mountainous regions of Europe,but its growth responses across its latitudinal and longitudinal range have not yet been satis...Silver fir(Abies alba Mill.)is a flexible European tree species,mainly vegetating within the mountainous regions of Europe,but its growth responses across its latitudinal and longitudinal range have not yet been satisfactorily verified under changing environmental conditions.This study describes the tree-ring increment of silver fir in research plots across a latitudinal gradient from the northern range in Czechia(CZ),through Croatia(HR)to the southernmost range in Italy(IT).The research aims to analyze in detail the dynamics and cyclicity of the ringwidth index(RWI)and how it relates to climatic factors(temperature and precipitation),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and total solar irradiance(TSI),including the determination of latitude.The results show that the main drivers affecting fir growth are the seasonal NAO index and TSI.Monthly temperatures affect RWI early in the vegetation season,while lack of precipitation during the summer is a limiting factor for fir growth,especially in July.Seasonal temperatures and temperatures in June and July negatively impact,while seasonal precipitation totals in the same months positively influence the RWI in all research plots across meridian.The longest growth cycles in fir RWI were recorded in the northernmost studied plots in CZ.These cyclical fluctuations recede approaching the south.The cyclic increase in RWI is related to the TSI,which decreases its effect from north to south.The TSI's effects vary,positively impacting CZ but negatively influencing HR while remaining relatively neutral in IT.On the other hand,seasonal NAO tends to negatively affect silver fir growth in HR and CZ but has a mildly positive effect in IT.In conclusion,the TSI and the influence of the seasonal NAO index are prevalent in the fir RWI and are accompanied by a greater cyclicity of RWI in Central Europe(temperature optimum)than in the Italian Mediterranean region,where this tree species is limited by climatic conditions,especially lack of precipitation.展开更多
Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence ...Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence of ionizing radiation emitted from the Sun mainly in the “rise” phase of solar activity. The ionizing radiation is positively charged particles with high energy. They penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere, creating increased content of ions serving as condensation nuclei. The condensation nuclei increase cloudiness in the lower atmosphere and lower the surface air temperature. When solar activity decreases as observed in the last 70 years, the reverse process occurs— cloud cover decreases, more solar electromagnetic radiation reaches the earth’s surface and increases the temperature. An additional argument for the presence of high-energy radiation that penetrates deeply into the Earth’s atmosphere and even reaches the Earth’s surface is the high statistically significant correlation between the fluxes of such radiation recorded by GOES series satellites in a geostationary orbit (36,000 km above the Earth’s surface) and the human mortality from deadliest diseases.展开更多
1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. ...1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais observations and of observations by other experimenters provides additional information: a) Allais, and after him several other scientists, discovered also marked anomalies in the precession of pendulums during certain eclipses, and maybe certain other syzygies. For the few eclipses for which both something was observed and sufficient data were available (one of them being a lunar eclipse for which nothing had been published until now), it was always the above perturbation model which acted on the pendulum, but sometimes with quite exceptional magnitude. b) There are quite possible links with optics. During the observation campaign of August 1958, which had implemented both two pendulums and an optical device, all the 24 h 50 min waves were almost in phase. In the precession of the Allais pendulum, in Miller’s interferometric observations in Mont Wilson, and in Esclangon’s observations in Strasbourg, a same peculiarity is found: the extrema of the annual influence are at the equinoxes, not at the solstices.展开更多
文摘By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42188101 and 41974181)the B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS, Grant No. XDB41000000)+3 种基金the Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field, CAS (Grant No. YSBR-018)the preresearch project on Civil Aerospace Technologies (Grant No. D020105) funded by China’s National Space Administrationthe International Partnership Program of CAS (Grant No. 183311KYSB20200003)The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
文摘In this study,we investigate the solar cycle dependence of the sunrise ionospheric zonal electric fields at the equator under geomagnetically quiet conditions.Simulations using the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamics General Circulation Model(TIEGCM)reveal that the equatorial eastward electric field at sunrise decreases with the increase in solar activity,independent of longitude,season,and lower atmospheric tides.The solar cycle dependence of the sunrise zonal electric field is mainly related to the zonal wind dynamo.Moreover,this solar cycle dependence of sunrise electric fields at the equator is dominated by the corresponding variation in the F-region dynamo because the response of conductivity and neutral winds near sunrise to increasing solar flux is stronger in the F-region than in the E-region,although the sunrise eastward enhancement of electric fields is mainly driven by the E-region zonal wind dynamo.Specifically,the westward gradient of low-latitude F-region neutral winds near the dawn terminator tends to produce westward electric fields in the equatorial region that are more pronounced at solar maximum,whereas the midlatitude E-region dynamo induces an eastward enhancement of sunrise electric fields at the equator that decreases slightly with increasing solar activity.This study also reveals that the reason the eastward enhancement of equatorial zonal electric fields near dawn and dusk terminators show opposite solar cycle dependence is because of their different generation mechanisms.
文摘To observe the level of interaction between the solar wind and the geomagnetic activity, we analyzed the distribution of the solar wind speeds according to the different classes of geomagnetic activity and the different phases of solar activity. We found that, the magnetic quiet activity reccord 80% of the solar wind speeds V s observed 88% of solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. The shock activity observes 82% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s. About 70% of the solar wind speeds V > 450 km/s, are observed in the corotating activity class. The cloud shock activity and fluctuating activity classes observed respectively 37% and 55% of the wind speeds V > 450 km/s. Furthermore, slow solar winds are mainly observed at the minimum phase of each solar cycle;but exceptionally the solar maximum phase of solar cycle 24, records a significant rate of slow solar wind. Shock winds are mainly observed around the solar maximum and recurrent winds are mainly observed at the descending phase of the solar cycle. Corotating stable winds and moderate shock winds dominate respectively at the descending phase and at the maximum phase.
文摘For the 22-year solar cycle oscillation there is no external time dependent source. A nonlinear oscillation, the solar cycle must be generated internally, and Babcock-Leighton models apply an artificial nonlinear source term that can simulate the observations—which leaves open the question of the actual source mechanism for the solar cycle. Addressing this question, we propose to take guidance from the wave mechanism that generates the 2-year Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the Earth atmosphere. Upward propagating gravity waves, eastward and westward, deposit momentum to generate the observed zonal wind oscillation. On the Sun, helioseismology has provided a thorough understanding of the acoustic p-waves, which propagate down into the convective envelope guided by the increasing temperature and related propagation velocity. Near the tachocline with low turbulent viscosity, the waves propagating eastward and westward can produce an axisymmetric 22-year oscillation of the zonal flow velocities that can generate the magnetic solar dynamo. Following the Earth model, waves in opposite directions can generate in the Sun wind and magnetic field oscillations in opposite directions, the proposition of a potential solar cycle mechanism.
基金supported by the project Environment Building for S&T Industries (2005DKA64000)
文摘Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dst≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz〈-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2012CB957804]the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Co-operation,Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 134111KYSB20150016]
文摘Solar radiation is a forcing of the climate system with a quasi-11-year period.As a quasi-period forcing,the influence of the phase of the solar cycle on the ocean system is an interesting topic of study.In this paper,the authors investigate a particular feature,the ocean heat content（OHC）anomaly,in different phases of the total solar irradiance（TSI） cycle.The results show that almost opposite spatial patterns appear in the tropical Pacific during the ascending and declining phases of the TSI cycle.Further analysis reveals the presence of the quasi-decadal（11-year） solar signal in the SST,OHC and surface zonal wind anomaly field over the tropical Pacific with a high level of statistical confidence（95%）.It is noted that the maximum centers of the ocean temperature anomaly are trapped in the upper ocean above the main pycnocline,in which the variations of OHC are related closely with zonal wind and ocean currents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant numbers U2031202,U1731124 and U1531247the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Grant number 2014FY120300the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant number XXH13505-04。
文摘It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.
基金supported by the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Project(project number Z181100002918004)the Equipment Pre-research Project(project number 30505020418)
文摘Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).
文摘The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of Solar cycles and season fluctuations on earthquakes, in a location named South Atlantic anomaly. The area used herein is delimited 0N, ?50S, 40E, ?90W, and is the region with the Earth’s lowest magnetic field, which allows a higher number of ionized particles to reach the ionosphere. The period chosen is 1996-2018, comprising two Solar Cycles and the respective solar maxima in 2000 and 2014. The first results pointed out that occurrences of swarm location depending from the depth search. Shallow earthquakes developed swarms near the shorelines and deep depth inland. A mathematical model was developed to statistically evaluate the changes in the earthquakes increases. The outcome resolutions showed Summer and Fall are the most important seasons for tremors in this region. The period analyzed have an extended solar minimum occurred 2003-2010, we analyzed the evolution of earthquakes occurrences under the South Atlantic anomaly.
文摘This paper aims to establish a comparison between both geomagnetic activity classification methods on foF2 diurnal variation over solar cycle phases. It concerns first a comparison of geomagnetic activity occurrences according to both classification methods;and second the geomagnetic effect on foF2 diurnal variation profiles as defined for the equatorial latitudes. The occurrences of the different disturbed geomagnetic activities (recurrent activity (RA), shock activity (SA) and fluctuant activity (FA)) according to both classifications (ancient classification (AC) and new classification (NC)) have been studied at Dakar ionosonde station (Lat: 14.8°N;Long: 342.6°E). Regarding both classifications, the RA occurs more during the decreasing phase. And it’s observed that the RA occurs the most during the increasing phase for the AC and during the minimum phase for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence (<img src="Edit_e4627ea9-9a9a-4473-9017-202d04a16377.bmp" alt="" /><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">11.1%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the negative value which is observed during the increasing phase) and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+16.74%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). The occurrence of the SA in relation with both classifications is the lowest during the minimum phase and the maximum occurrence is observed during the maximum and decreasing phases, for the AC, with a value close to </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">37%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> and for the NC at the maximum phase with a percentage of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">54.47%</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. The maximum gap of occurrence (</span><img src="Edit_20fa141b-ecee-4e06-8024-144ba0969395.bmp" alt="" /></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">17.85%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the negative value which is observed at maximum phase) and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+13.53%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). For both classifications, the FA occurs the least during the minimum phase and the most during the maximum phase for the AC and at maximum and decreasing phases with percentage values of occurrence of roughly </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">37%</span><span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence (</span><img src="Edit_eecb8939-783e-4d43-b92c-80c528c1890b.bmp" alt="" /><span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) between both classifications is <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana, Helvetica, Arial;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;">-</span></span>10% (for the negative value which is observed during the decreasing phase) and </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">+20.11%</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> (for the positive one which is observed during the maximum phase). foF2 diurnal profiles throughout solar cycle phases concerning the AC and the NC have been compared. The FA diurnal profiles don’t present a difference. The RA and the SA present a difference during minimum and increasing phases and the least at maximum and decreasing phases.</span></span></span>
文摘In this paper, we analyzed diurnal and annual seasonal variations of solar wind parameters such as interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), proton density (N), solar wind speed (V) and solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdym), during the solar cycles 23 and 24. Our study shows that strong geomagnetic disturbances are observed at the equinoxes during both solar cycles. The highest proton densities are observed at solstices during both solar cycles. The greatest solar wind speeds are observed at the equinoxes of solar cycle 23 and at the solstices of solar cycle 24. The highest solar wind dynamic pressures are observed at the solstices of both solar cycles. We also observed an asymmetrical evolution of the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters during the two cycles, except for the proton density. Our investigations also highlight the fact that the seasonal diurnal values of the solar wind parameters are significant at solar cycle 23 compared to solar cycle 24 characterized by a global weak in solar plasma conditions since the deep minimum that followed the solar cycle 23 leading to an absence of a persistent polar coronal hole. The drop observed in polar field and solar winds parameters during solar cycle 24 is reproduced on seasons (solstices and equinoxes). The solar cycle 23 and 24 appear to be two magnetically opposite solar cycles regardless the time scales.
文摘This paper deals with TEC variability during fluctuating geomagnetic events (FE) during solar cycle 24 at Koudougou station (lat: 12<sup>o</sup>15'N;Geo long: -2<sup>o</sup>20'E). The study was done by comparing TEC variations during FE days with those of quiet days (QA). Comparison was made taking into account solar phases’ and seasons’ influences. FE’s and QA’s TEC curves are characterized by dome profiles. All graphs show two troughs, one in the morning (0500 LT) and the second in the evening (around 2000 LT) and a peak around 1400 LT during all solar phases and winter months and around 1500 LT for the remaining seasons. Both troughs are caused by the decrease of the photo ionization and an increase of the recombination phenomena, as well for FE as for QA periods. FE cause positive storms during all solar phases as well as during seasons and some negative storms during spring and summer months and minimum and maximum solar phases.
文摘This paper investigates the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the critical frequency at low latitudes in the African region. The variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere (foF2) is studied for the different seasons of the phase minimum of solar cycle 22 during quiet geomagnetic activity at the Ouagadougou station. The data used are those provided by the ionosonde and the predictions of the two subprograms: International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) and International Radio-Scientific Union (URSI) of the 2016 version of the International Reference Ionosphere model. This study shows that, in general, URSI and CCIR of the IRI-2016 model are able to reproduce fairly well the variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere at low latitudes during the phase minimum at the Ouagadougou station. However, the model shows an almost homogeneous overestimation of the foF2 during the four seasons studied. The good response is observed between 0700 TL and 1900 TL for the available data. The agreement between the subroutine responses and the observed results is between reasonable and poor. The best match state response is obtained in winter with the CCIR subroutine. These results show that there is a need to improve both CCIR and URSI subroutines of the IRI-2016 model in low latitudes in the African region.
文摘The major solar energetic particle events for the peak of solar cycle (24) for years (2012-2015) are analyzed by using the Energetic and Relativistic Nucleus and Electrons (ERNE) detectors and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) on board SOHO. It is found that the number of events which satisfies the required condition was 82 events. LASCO give information about Central Position Angle (CPA), Angular Width (AW), the speed of associated Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their basic features which cataloged in a data base SOHO/LASCO. The logarithmic intensity-time profile of SEP for the peak of solar cycle (24) was provided by ERNE, and from this profile the injection time, width, speed and onset time were estimated. All results that arise from these photometric analysis were statistically analyzed by using the statistical program SPSS (version 19). It have been concluded that 90% of these events were halo (360°) CPA, 1% of North West, 4% South West and 2% North East and South East, as well as it was found that 39% gradual events and 29% impulsive events while 32% were not clear events, and also the acceleration of the energetic particle is not only in the interplanetary but also in the location of the event. We found from the statistical analysis for these events that the acceleration is inversely proportional to speed and the relationship between them is not relevant and also the speed increase in two regions, from year 2012 and 2014. This confirms that the peak of solar cycle (24) really is double peak. All these investigations were employed as data base for the space agencies to protect the solar wind.
文摘Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.
基金Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB957804)Project from State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(LTO1916)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075040)Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(SGCC,NY71-19-013)。
文摘This paper uses two subsets of ensemble historical-Nat simulations and pi-Control simulations from CMIP5 as well as observational/reanalysis datasets to investigate responses of the tropical Pacific to the 11-yr solar cycle.A statistically significant 11-yr solar signal is found in the upper-ocean layers above the thermocline and tropospheric circulations.A warming response initially appears in the upper layers of the central equatorial Pacific in the solar maximum years in observations,then increases and shifts into the eastern Pacific at lagged 1-3 yr.Meanwhile,an anomalous updraft arises over the western equatorial Pacific and shifts eastwards in the following years with anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent.These lagged responses are confirmed by the historical-Nat simulations,except that the initial signal is located more to the west and all the responses are weaker than the observed.A simplified mixed-layer heat budget analysis based on the historical-Nat simulations suggests that the atmospheric forcing,especially the shortwave radiation,is the major contributor to the initial warming response,and the ocean heat transport effect is responsible for the eastward displacement of the lagged warming responses.In the solar maximum years,the zonal ocean temperature gradient in the western-central Pacific is reduced by the initial warming,and anomalous westerly winds appear over the western equatorial Pacific and extend into the eastern Pacific during the lagged years.These anomalous westerly winds reduce the wind-driven ocean dynamical transport,resulting in the initial warming in the central equatorial Pacific being amplified and the surface warming shifting eastward during the lagged 1-3 yr.
文摘Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION The observation of the spectra of the SVC sources is very important in the theory of the slowly varying component (SVC) and for the prediction of solar-terrestrial environment. In order to increase the spatial resolution, solar radio astronomers made used of solar eclipses to observe the SVC sources over a wide range of frequencies to ob-
基金supported by the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences(No.IGA A_21_26)the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic(No.QK1910292 and QK21020371).
文摘Silver fir(Abies alba Mill.)is a flexible European tree species,mainly vegetating within the mountainous regions of Europe,but its growth responses across its latitudinal and longitudinal range have not yet been satisfactorily verified under changing environmental conditions.This study describes the tree-ring increment of silver fir in research plots across a latitudinal gradient from the northern range in Czechia(CZ),through Croatia(HR)to the southernmost range in Italy(IT).The research aims to analyze in detail the dynamics and cyclicity of the ringwidth index(RWI)and how it relates to climatic factors(temperature and precipitation),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and total solar irradiance(TSI),including the determination of latitude.The results show that the main drivers affecting fir growth are the seasonal NAO index and TSI.Monthly temperatures affect RWI early in the vegetation season,while lack of precipitation during the summer is a limiting factor for fir growth,especially in July.Seasonal temperatures and temperatures in June and July negatively impact,while seasonal precipitation totals in the same months positively influence the RWI in all research plots across meridian.The longest growth cycles in fir RWI were recorded in the northernmost studied plots in CZ.These cyclical fluctuations recede approaching the south.The cyclic increase in RWI is related to the TSI,which decreases its effect from north to south.The TSI's effects vary,positively impacting CZ but negatively influencing HR while remaining relatively neutral in IT.On the other hand,seasonal NAO tends to negatively affect silver fir growth in HR and CZ but has a mildly positive effect in IT.In conclusion,the TSI and the influence of the seasonal NAO index are prevalent in the fir RWI and are accompanied by a greater cyclicity of RWI in Central Europe(temperature optimum)than in the Italian Mediterranean region,where this tree species is limited by climatic conditions,especially lack of precipitation.
文摘Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence of ionizing radiation emitted from the Sun mainly in the “rise” phase of solar activity. The ionizing radiation is positively charged particles with high energy. They penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere, creating increased content of ions serving as condensation nuclei. The condensation nuclei increase cloudiness in the lower atmosphere and lower the surface air temperature. When solar activity decreases as observed in the last 70 years, the reverse process occurs— cloud cover decreases, more solar electromagnetic radiation reaches the earth’s surface and increases the temperature. An additional argument for the presence of high-energy radiation that penetrates deeply into the Earth’s atmosphere and even reaches the Earth’s surface is the high statistically significant correlation between the fluxes of such radiation recorded by GOES series satellites in a geostationary orbit (36,000 km above the Earth’s surface) and the human mortality from deadliest diseases.
文摘1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais observations and of observations by other experimenters provides additional information: a) Allais, and after him several other scientists, discovered also marked anomalies in the precession of pendulums during certain eclipses, and maybe certain other syzygies. For the few eclipses for which both something was observed and sufficient data were available (one of them being a lunar eclipse for which nothing had been published until now), it was always the above perturbation model which acted on the pendulum, but sometimes with quite exceptional magnitude. b) There are quite possible links with optics. During the observation campaign of August 1958, which had implemented both two pendulums and an optical device, all the 24 h 50 min waves were almost in phase. In the precession of the Allais pendulum, in Miller’s interferometric observations in Mont Wilson, and in Esclangon’s observations in Strasbourg, a same peculiarity is found: the extrema of the annual influence are at the equinoxes, not at the solstices.
