In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyc...In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.展开更多
Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important me...Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.展开更多
Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast ...Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.展开更多
The Bohai Sea is influenced by numerous extreme oceanic wave events in history.However,it is often difficult to determine the types of these events due to the lack of detailed historical records,causing uncertainty in...The Bohai Sea is influenced by numerous extreme oceanic wave events in history.However,it is often difficult to determine the types of these events due to the lack of detailed historical records,causing uncertainty in the reconstruction of historical coastal disasters.We investigated an anomalous sand layer in the Xiliyu Village by the coast of Laizhou Bay,Shandong,from which an extreme event deposit was identified using a multi-proxy approach including grain size distribution,geochemistry,and magnetic susceptibility.This event was dated 2700–3100 a bp,and caused inundation of a large coastal area of Laizhou Bay.By comparing historical records with instrumental data,we believe that the event deposit was generated by a severe storm surge with wind speed of>34.9 m/s.展开更多
Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extre...Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extreme sea level scenarios caused by high astronomical tides and storm surges.The Jelesnianski typhoon model and the ADvanced CIRCulation hydrodynamic model were used to simulate 91 typhoons that occurred in the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2017,and observational data were used for model validation.The inundation model was based on a digital elevation model and a seed spread algorithm,and a geographical information system was used to visualize the flood risk.Under four scenarios,the changes in flood levels caused by sea level rise had no signifi-cant influence on the extent of flooding in Chittagong.At flood levels of 8.82m(50-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 8.89 m(50-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum estimated area of inundation was 11.35 km^(2).The western coastal and southeastern river coastal plain areas of Chittagong have the highest risk of inundation due to their low-lying terrain.At flood levels of 9.83m(100-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 9.97m(100-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum simulated flood extent was 36.44km^(2).Simulated floodwaters propagated in a south–north direction,and most of the northern areas of the city are at risk of inundation under these scenarios.展开更多
The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for ra...The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.展开更多
Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during th...Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during the period from 2011 to 2023. They will cause significant changes in coastline geometry. In this study, a surge-tide coupled model was established based on a three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model(FVCOM). A series of numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of variations in coastline geometry on tides, storm surges, and storm tides. This model was calibrated using data observed at the Haimen and Ruian gauge stations and then used to reproduce the tides, storm surges, and storm tides in the Jiaojiang Estuary caused by Typhoon Winnie in 1997. Results show that the high tide level, peak storm surge, and high storm tide level at the Haimen Gauge Station increased along with the completion of reclamation projects, and the maximum increments caused by the third project were 0.13 m, 0.50 m, and 0.43 m, respectively. The envelopes with maximum storm tide levels of 7.0 m and 8.0 m inside the river mouth appeared to move seaward, with the latter shifting 1.8 km, 3.3 km, and 4.4 km due to the first project, second project, and third project, respectively. The results achieved in this study contribute to reducing the effects of, and preventing storm disasters after the land reclamation in the Jiaojiang Estuary.展开更多
Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents’safety,property,and lives,particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels.Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time ar...Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents’safety,property,and lives,particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels.Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans.In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models,artificial intelligence(AI)techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations.Convolutional neural network(CNN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)are two of the most important models among AI techniques.However,they have been scarcely utilised for surge level(SL)forecasting,and combinations of the two models are even rarer.This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information.The architectures of the CNN,LSTM,and two sequential techniques of combining the models(LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM)were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies.As a case study,11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station,Hainan Province,China,were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models.The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression(SVR)and multilayer perceptron(MLP),and the combined models outperformed the individual models(CNN and LSTM),mostly by 4%–6%.However,on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges,the accuracy was found to improve by over 10%at all forecasting steps.展开更多
Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore ...Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore model)was used to investigate the storm surge inundation in the southwestern Hangzhou Bay region during Typhoon Chan-hom in 2015.The simulated hydrodynamic processes(sea surface wave and storm tide)were validated with measured data from wave buoys and tide gauges,indicating that the overall performance of the model was satisfactory.The storm surge inundation in the coastal area was simulated for several idealized control experiments,including different wave effects(wave-enhanced wind stress,wave-enhanced bottom stress,and wave radiation stress).Dike overflowing cases with different dike heights and dike breaking cases with different dike breach lengths were considered in the simulation.The results highlight the necessity of incorporating wave effects in the accurate simulation of storm surge inundation.Dike height significantly influences the magnitude and phase of the maximum inundation area in the dike overflowing cases,and dike breach length is an important factor impacting the magnitude of the maximum inundation area in the dike breaking cases.This study may serve as a useful reference for accurate coastal inundation simulation and risk assessment.展开更多
The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm s...The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models.The results agree well with tidal gauge observations.To improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran.The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts.The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model.Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided.The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut.The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.展开更多
The Jiangsu coastal area is located in central-eastern China and is well known for complicated dynamics with large-scale radial sand ridge systems. It is therefore a challenge to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges ...The Jiangsu coastal area is located in central-eastern China and is well known for complicated dynamics with large-scale radial sand ridge systems. It is therefore a challenge to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in this area. In this study, a two-dimensional astronomical tide and storm surge coupling model was established to simulate three typical types of typhoons in the area. The Holland parameter model was used to simulate the wind field and wind pressure of the typhoon and the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data were added as the background wind field. The offshore boundary information was provided by an improved Northwest Pacific Ocean Tide Model. Typhoon-induced storm surges along the Jiangsu coast were calculated based on analysis of wind data from 1949 to 2013 and the spatial distribution of the maximum storm surge levels with different types of typhoons, providing references for the design of sea dikes and planning for control of coastal disasters.展开更多
In this study,a high-resolution storm surge floodplain numerical model was established based on the ADCIRC ocean numerical model,and was used to simulate the storm surge floodplain of typhoon 9608"HERB",and ...In this study,a high-resolution storm surge floodplain numerical model was established based on the ADCIRC ocean numerical model,and was used to simulate the storm surge floodplain of typhoon 9608"HERB",and the simulation results of tide level and storm water increase are in good agreement with the observation data.On this basis,the influences of runoff,typhoon path,and typhoon intensity on the floodplain submerged area and depth were discussed.Based on the measured runoff data,10 sets of sensitivity experiments with runoff sizes ranging from 0 to 2.5 times were set up.The experimental results show that the increase of runoff mainly increases the submerged area of the coastal area in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River,but has a small effect on the submerged area of the coastal area in the lower reaches of the Minjiang River and the outer sea mouth.Based on the original typhoon path,8 different deflection paths after the typhoon landed were constructed to carry out sensitivity experiments.The results show that the clockwise deflection of typhoon path of 10°-40°to the south will reduce the submerged area,and the counterclockwise deflection of 10°-30°to the north will increase the submerged area,but the counterclockwise deflection of more than 40°to the north will decrease the submerged area.Three weather systems before and after landing of typhoon center pressure of 955 HPA,935 HPA,and 915 HPA was constructed.The results show that the decrease of typhoon center pressure will significantly increase the submerged area of the entire area.Compared with the air pressure of 975 HPA,the submerged area is increased by about 2 times.展开更多
A well-established 3D phase-averaged beach morphodynamic model was applied to investigate the morphodynamics of a typical artificial beach,and a series of discussions were made on the surfzone hydro-sedimentological p...A well-established 3D phase-averaged beach morphodynamic model was applied to investigate the morphodynamics of a typical artificial beach,and a series of discussions were made on the surfzone hydro-sedimentological processes under calm and storm events.Model results revealed that the nearshore wave-induced current presents a significant 3D structure under stormy waves,where the undertow and longshore currents exist simultaneously,forming a spirallike circulation system in the surfzone.Continuous longshore sediment transport would shorten the sediment supply in the cross-shore direction,subsequently suppress the formation of sandbars,showing that a typical recovery profile under calm waves does not necessarily develop,but with a competing process of onshore drift,undertow and longshore currents.Sediment transport rate during storms reaches several hundreds of times as those under calm waves,and two storm events contribute approximately 60%to the beach erosion.Sediment transport pattern under calm waves is mainly bed load,but as the fine sands underneath begin to expose,the contribution of suspended load becomes significant.展开更多
In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum...In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.展开更多
The ultimate goal and highlight of this paper are to explore water levels along the coast of Bangladesh efficiently due to the nonlinear interaction of tide and surge by employing the method of lines(MOLs)with the aid...The ultimate goal and highlight of this paper are to explore water levels along the coast of Bangladesh efficiently due to the nonlinear interaction of tide and surge by employing the method of lines(MOLs)with the aid of newly proposed RKAHeM(4,4)technique.In this regard,the spatial derivatives of shallow water equations(SWEs)were discretized by means of a finite difference method to obtain a system of ordinary differential equations(ODEs)of initial valued with time as an independent variable.The obtained system of ODEs was solved by the RKAHeM(4,4)technique.One-way nested grid technique was exercised to incorporate coastal complexities closely with minimum computational cost.A stable tidal oscillation was produced over the region of interest by applying the most influential tidal constituent M2 along the southern open boundary of the outer scheme.The newly developed model was applied to estimate water levels due to the non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the catastrophic cyclone April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.The approach employed in the study was found to perform well and ensure conformity with real-time observations.展开更多
Storm surges are cataclysmic natural disasters that occur along the coasts and are usually accompanied by large waves.The effects of coupled storm surges and waves can pose a significant threat to coastal security.Pre...Storm surges are cataclysmic natural disasters that occur along the coasts and are usually accompanied by large waves.The effects of coupled storm surges and waves can pose a significant threat to coastal security.Previous labo-ratory studies on the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal structures have typically utilized steady water levels and constant wave elements.An indoor simulation of the coupled processes of tides and waves is developed by adding a tide generation system to an existing laboratory wave basin to model continuous dynamic tide levels so that tide generation and wave-making occur synchronously in the pool.Specific experimental methods are given,which are applied to further study waves overtopping on artificial sea dikes and coastal flooding evolution under the coupled actions of tides and waves.The results of the overtopping discharge obtained by the test with a dynamic water level are compared with those obtained from steady water level tests and the existing empirical formula.In addition,the impacts of ecological coastal shelterbelts and structures on coastal flood processes and distributions are also investi-gated.The proposed simulation methods provide a new approach for studying the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal areas.The study also aims to provide a reference for coastal protective engineering.展开更多
Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge stati...Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.展开更多
Cyclone Mekunu developed in the Arabian Sea on 22 May 2018 and made landfall near the Port of Salalah(Oman)on 25 May.Wide spread damages to properties and coastal facilities and human casualties were reported in Yemen...Cyclone Mekunu developed in the Arabian Sea on 22 May 2018 and made landfall near the Port of Salalah(Oman)on 25 May.Wide spread damages to properties and coastal facilities and human casualties were reported in Yemen and Oman.Less information on numerical modelling of waves and surge is publicly available on this cyclone.Therefore,numerical modelling of Cyclone Mekunu was carried out in the present study to derive waves and storm surge.The MIKE21 Spectral Wave Model and the Flow Model were used in coupled mode to simulate the waves and surge from the cyclone.Model results of waves and surge are presented in this paper for illustration purposes.The methodology of the present study can be used to simulate any cyclone around the world.展开更多
Severe weather systems can generate large waves and storm surges which can cause many fatalities in coastal areas.In extreme circumstances a single cyclone caused up to 500,000 fatalities in the Bay of Bengal in 1970....Severe weather systems can generate large waves and storm surges which can cause many fatalities in coastal areas.In extreme circumstances a single cyclone caused up to 500,000 fatalities in the Bay of Bengal in 1970.Adaption by authorities in that region from evacuations and construction of storm shelters have significantly reduced the number of such fatalities there.The effects of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 in New York City and surrounding areas is examined to show how ocean effects can cause many casualties.Scrutiny of a European storm shows how a slight error in analysis can fail to detect a deadly increase in intensity which caused many fatalities.World record wave height events are examined,and the historical Australian east coast events are investigated.The impacts from long period waves emanating from distant storms are shown to be a forecasting problem.展开更多
In this study,a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters,such as the point of landfall,approach angle,forward speed,size,and...In this study,a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters,such as the point of landfall,approach angle,forward speed,size,and intensity.The typhoon simulation was validated for Typhoon Lan in 2017,and 31 hypothetical storm surge scenarios were generated to establish the sensitivity of peak surge height to the variation in typhoon parameters.The maximum storm surge height in the upper bay adjacent to the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was found to be highly sensitive to the forward speed and size of the passing typhoon.However,the importance of these parameters in disaster risk reduction has been largely overlooked by researchers and disaster managers.It was also determined that of the many hypothetical typhoon tracks evaluated,the slow passage of a large and intense typhoon transiting parallel to the longitudinal axis of Tokyo Bay,making landfall 25 km southwest,is most likely to cause a hazardous storm surge scenario in the upper-bay area.The results of this study are expected to be useful to disaster managers for advanced preparation against destructive storm surges.展开更多
基金funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.B210202031)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41606042)the Marine Renewable Energy Foundation,State Oceanic Administration,China(No.GHME2017YY01).
文摘In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42076214.
文摘Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.
基金supported by four funds,including the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3106102)the Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(Nos.JSZRH YKJ202105,JSZRHYKI202303)+1 种基金the Nantong Social and Livelihood Science and Technology Project(Nos.MS12022009,MS22022082,MS22022083)the Project on Excellent Post-Graduate Dissertation of Hohai University(No.422003470).
文摘Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41706096,41530962,41771218)the Research Start-up Project of Jiangsu Normal University(No.19XSRX006)the Opening Foundation of Hainan Key Laboratory of Marine Geological Resources and Environment(No.HNHYDZZYHJKF005)。
文摘The Bohai Sea is influenced by numerous extreme oceanic wave events in history.However,it is often difficult to determine the types of these events due to the lack of detailed historical records,causing uncertainty in the reconstruction of historical coastal disasters.We investigated an anomalous sand layer in the Xiliyu Village by the coast of Laizhou Bay,Shandong,from which an extreme event deposit was identified using a multi-proxy approach including grain size distribution,geochemistry,and magnetic susceptibility.This event was dated 2700–3100 a bp,and caused inundation of a large coastal area of Laizhou Bay.By comparing historical records with instrumental data,we believe that the event deposit was generated by a severe storm surge with wind speed of>34.9 m/s.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1401103)Funds for the Central Universities(No.202165003)the Open Fund of Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Ocean University of China(No.kloe201903).
文摘Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extreme sea level scenarios caused by high astronomical tides and storm surges.The Jelesnianski typhoon model and the ADvanced CIRCulation hydrodynamic model were used to simulate 91 typhoons that occurred in the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2017,and observational data were used for model validation.The inundation model was based on a digital elevation model and a seed spread algorithm,and a geographical information system was used to visualize the flood risk.Under four scenarios,the changes in flood levels caused by sea level rise had no signifi-cant influence on the extent of flooding in Chittagong.At flood levels of 8.82m(50-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 8.89 m(50-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum estimated area of inundation was 11.35 km^(2).The western coastal and southeastern river coastal plain areas of Chittagong have the highest risk of inundation due to their low-lying terrain.At flood levels of 9.83m(100-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 9.97m(100-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum simulated flood extent was 36.44km^(2).Simulated floodwaters propagated in a south–north direction,and most of the northern areas of the city are at risk of inundation under these scenarios.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52071306,52101360)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2019MEE050)the State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering(No.LP2104)。
文摘The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40776007)Projects Founded by the Science and Technology Department of Zhejiang Province(Grant No.2009C03008-1)
文摘Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during the period from 2011 to 2023. They will cause significant changes in coastline geometry. In this study, a surge-tide coupled model was established based on a three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model(FVCOM). A series of numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of variations in coastline geometry on tides, storm surges, and storm tides. This model was calibrated using data observed at the Haimen and Ruian gauge stations and then used to reproduce the tides, storm surges, and storm tides in the Jiaojiang Estuary caused by Typhoon Winnie in 1997. Results show that the high tide level, peak storm surge, and high storm tide level at the Haimen Gauge Station increased along with the completion of reclamation projects, and the maximum increments caused by the third project were 0.13 m, 0.50 m, and 0.43 m, respectively. The envelopes with maximum storm tide levels of 7.0 m and 8.0 m inside the river mouth appeared to move seaward, with the latter shifting 1.8 km, 3.3 km, and 4.4 km due to the first project, second project, and third project, respectively. The results achieved in this study contribute to reducing the effects of, and preventing storm disasters after the land reclamation in the Jiaojiang Estuary.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No.2016YFC1402609the Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting+1 种基金Ministry of Natural Resources under contract No.LOMF 1804the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42077438。
文摘Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents’safety,property,and lives,particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels.Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans.In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models,artificial intelligence(AI)techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations.Convolutional neural network(CNN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)are two of the most important models among AI techniques.However,they have been scarcely utilised for surge level(SL)forecasting,and combinations of the two models are even rarer.This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information.The architectures of the CNN,LSTM,and two sequential techniques of combining the models(LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM)were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies.As a case study,11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station,Hainan Province,China,were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models.The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression(SVR)and multilayer perceptron(MLP),and the combined models outperformed the individual models(CNN and LSTM),mostly by 4%–6%.However,on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges,the accuracy was found to improve by over 10%at all forecasting steps.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Nos.2016YFC140 2000,2016YFC1401002,and 2018YFC1407003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(NosU1706216,41606024,and 41506023)+3 种基金the CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)Strategic Priority Project(No.XDA 19060202)the CAS Innovative Foundation(No.CXJJ-16M111)the NSFC Innovative Group(No.41421005)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406402)
文摘Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore model)was used to investigate the storm surge inundation in the southwestern Hangzhou Bay region during Typhoon Chan-hom in 2015.The simulated hydrodynamic processes(sea surface wave and storm tide)were validated with measured data from wave buoys and tide gauges,indicating that the overall performance of the model was satisfactory.The storm surge inundation in the coastal area was simulated for several idealized control experiments,including different wave effects(wave-enhanced wind stress,wave-enhanced bottom stress,and wave radiation stress).Dike overflowing cases with different dike heights and dike breaking cases with different dike breach lengths were considered in the simulation.The results highlight the necessity of incorporating wave effects in the accurate simulation of storm surge inundation.Dike height significantly influences the magnitude and phase of the maximum inundation area in the dike overflowing cases,and dike breach length is an important factor impacting the magnitude of the maximum inundation area in the dike breaking cases.This study may serve as a useful reference for accurate coastal inundation simulation and risk assessment.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2016YFC14015032018YFC140066 and 2018YFC1407001。
文摘The accuracy of typhoon forecasts plays an important role in the prediction of storm surges.The uncertainty of a typhoon’s intensity and track means it is necessary to use an ensemble model to predict typhoon storm surges.A hydrodynamic model,which is operational at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,is applied to conduct surge simulations for South China coastal areas using the best track data with parametric wind and pressure models.The results agree well with tidal gauge observations.To improve the calculation efficiency,the hydrodynamic model is modified using CUDA Fortran.The calculation results are almost the same as those from the original model,but the calculation time is reduced by more than 99%.A total of 150 typhoon cases are generated by combining 50 typhoon tracks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with three possible typhoon intensity forecasts.The surge ensembles are computed by the improved hydrodynamic model.Based on the simulated storm surges for the different typhoon cases,ensemble and probability forecast products can be provided.The mean ensemble results and probability forecast products are shown to agree well with the observed storm surge caused by Typhoon Mangkhut.The improved model is highly suitable for ensemble numerical forecasts,providing better forecast products for decision-making,and can be easily implemented to run on regular workstations.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.51425901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41606042)
文摘The Jiangsu coastal area is located in central-eastern China and is well known for complicated dynamics with large-scale radial sand ridge systems. It is therefore a challenge to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in this area. In this study, a two-dimensional astronomical tide and storm surge coupling model was established to simulate three typical types of typhoons in the area. The Holland parameter model was used to simulate the wind field and wind pressure of the typhoon and the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data were added as the background wind field. The offshore boundary information was provided by an improved Northwest Pacific Ocean Tide Model. Typhoon-induced storm surges along the Jiangsu coast were calculated based on analysis of wind data from 1949 to 2013 and the spatial distribution of the maximum storm surge levels with different types of typhoons, providing references for the design of sea dikes and planning for control of coastal disasters.
文摘In this study,a high-resolution storm surge floodplain numerical model was established based on the ADCIRC ocean numerical model,and was used to simulate the storm surge floodplain of typhoon 9608"HERB",and the simulation results of tide level and storm water increase are in good agreement with the observation data.On this basis,the influences of runoff,typhoon path,and typhoon intensity on the floodplain submerged area and depth were discussed.Based on the measured runoff data,10 sets of sensitivity experiments with runoff sizes ranging from 0 to 2.5 times were set up.The experimental results show that the increase of runoff mainly increases the submerged area of the coastal area in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River,but has a small effect on the submerged area of the coastal area in the lower reaches of the Minjiang River and the outer sea mouth.Based on the original typhoon path,8 different deflection paths after the typhoon landed were constructed to carry out sensitivity experiments.The results show that the clockwise deflection of typhoon path of 10°-40°to the south will reduce the submerged area,and the counterclockwise deflection of 10°-30°to the north will increase the submerged area,but the counterclockwise deflection of more than 40°to the north will decrease the submerged area.Three weather systems before and after landing of typhoon center pressure of 955 HPA,935 HPA,and 915 HPA was constructed.The results show that the decrease of typhoon center pressure will significantly increase the submerged area of the entire area.Compared with the air pressure of 975 HPA,the submerged area is increased by about 2 times.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51779112 and 51879096)Research Innovation Fund of Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering(Grant Nos.TKS20200401 and TKS180405).
文摘A well-established 3D phase-averaged beach morphodynamic model was applied to investigate the morphodynamics of a typical artificial beach,and a series of discussions were made on the surfzone hydro-sedimentological processes under calm and storm events.Model results revealed that the nearshore wave-induced current presents a significant 3D structure under stormy waves,where the undertow and longshore currents exist simultaneously,forming a spirallike circulation system in the surfzone.Continuous longshore sediment transport would shorten the sediment supply in the cross-shore direction,subsequently suppress the formation of sandbars,showing that a typical recovery profile under calm waves does not necessarily develop,but with a competing process of onshore drift,undertow and longshore currents.Sediment transport rate during storms reaches several hundreds of times as those under calm waves,and two storm events contribute approximately 60%to the beach erosion.Sediment transport pattern under calm waves is mainly bed load,but as the fine sands underneath begin to expose,the contribution of suspended load becomes significant.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50909065)
文摘In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.
文摘The ultimate goal and highlight of this paper are to explore water levels along the coast of Bangladesh efficiently due to the nonlinear interaction of tide and surge by employing the method of lines(MOLs)with the aid of newly proposed RKAHeM(4,4)technique.In this regard,the spatial derivatives of shallow water equations(SWEs)were discretized by means of a finite difference method to obtain a system of ordinary differential equations(ODEs)of initial valued with time as an independent variable.The obtained system of ODEs was solved by the RKAHeM(4,4)technique.One-way nested grid technique was exercised to incorporate coastal complexities closely with minimum computational cost.A stable tidal oscillation was produced over the region of interest by applying the most influential tidal constituent M2 along the southern open boundary of the outer scheme.The newly developed model was applied to estimate water levels due to the non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the catastrophic cyclone April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.The approach employed in the study was found to perform well and ensure conformity with real-time observations.
基金This study was financially supported by the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund Key Project(Grant No.U1706216)the Innovative Research Foundation of Ship General Performance(Grant No.31422118)the Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research of Central Public Research Institutes(Grant Nos.Y220013 and Y222004).
文摘Storm surges are cataclysmic natural disasters that occur along the coasts and are usually accompanied by large waves.The effects of coupled storm surges and waves can pose a significant threat to coastal security.Previous labo-ratory studies on the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal structures have typically utilized steady water levels and constant wave elements.An indoor simulation of the coupled processes of tides and waves is developed by adding a tide generation system to an existing laboratory wave basin to model continuous dynamic tide levels so that tide generation and wave-making occur synchronously in the pool.Specific experimental methods are given,which are applied to further study waves overtopping on artificial sea dikes and coastal flooding evolution under the coupled actions of tides and waves.The results of the overtopping discharge obtained by the test with a dynamic water level are compared with those obtained from steady water level tests and the existing empirical formula.In addition,the impacts of ecological coastal shelterbelts and structures on coastal flood processes and distributions are also investi-gated.The proposed simulation methods provide a new approach for studying the effects of storm surges and waves on coastal areas.The study also aims to provide a reference for coastal protective engineering.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1401103)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Foundation(No.U1706226)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51779236)the Open Fund of Shandong Province Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering(No.kloe201903).
文摘Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.
文摘Cyclone Mekunu developed in the Arabian Sea on 22 May 2018 and made landfall near the Port of Salalah(Oman)on 25 May.Wide spread damages to properties and coastal facilities and human casualties were reported in Yemen and Oman.Less information on numerical modelling of waves and surge is publicly available on this cyclone.Therefore,numerical modelling of Cyclone Mekunu was carried out in the present study to derive waves and storm surge.The MIKE21 Spectral Wave Model and the Flow Model were used in coupled mode to simulate the waves and surge from the cyclone.Model results of waves and surge are presented in this paper for illustration purposes.The methodology of the present study can be used to simulate any cyclone around the world.
文摘Severe weather systems can generate large waves and storm surges which can cause many fatalities in coastal areas.In extreme circumstances a single cyclone caused up to 500,000 fatalities in the Bay of Bengal in 1970.Adaption by authorities in that region from evacuations and construction of storm shelters have significantly reduced the number of such fatalities there.The effects of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 in New York City and surrounding areas is examined to show how ocean effects can cause many casualties.Scrutiny of a European storm shows how a slight error in analysis can fail to detect a deadly increase in intensity which caused many fatalities.World record wave height events are examined,and the historical Australian east coast events are investigated.The impacts from long period waves emanating from distant storms are shown to be a forecasting problem.
基金This research was funded through the grants for Tokyo Institute of Technology(Japan Society for the Promotion of Science,16KK0121,19K04964,and 19K24677).
文摘In this study,a storm surge model of the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay was constructed to investigate its hydrodynamic response to major typhoon parameters,such as the point of landfall,approach angle,forward speed,size,and intensity.The typhoon simulation was validated for Typhoon Lan in 2017,and 31 hypothetical storm surge scenarios were generated to establish the sensitivity of peak surge height to the variation in typhoon parameters.The maximum storm surge height in the upper bay adjacent to the Tokyo Metropolitan Area was found to be highly sensitive to the forward speed and size of the passing typhoon.However,the importance of these parameters in disaster risk reduction has been largely overlooked by researchers and disaster managers.It was also determined that of the many hypothetical typhoon tracks evaluated,the slow passage of a large and intense typhoon transiting parallel to the longitudinal axis of Tokyo Bay,making landfall 25 km southwest,is most likely to cause a hazardous storm surge scenario in the upper-bay area.The results of this study are expected to be useful to disaster managers for advanced preparation against destructive storm surges.
