Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantil...Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.展开更多
This article aims to explore the feasibility of English animation-assisted children's English teaching based on the theoryof children's language acquisition, discusses its beneficial effects, and puts forward ...This article aims to explore the feasibility of English animation-assisted children's English teaching based on the theoryof children's language acquisition, discusses its beneficial effects, and puts forward certain reference suggestions based on this.展开更多
Alice's Adventures in Wonderland literature development has been blocked by the monotonous theme orientation and plots off the real life. In this paper, Alice has served as an illustrative case study to present so...Alice's Adventures in Wonderland literature development has been blocked by the monotonous theme orientation and plots off the real life. In this paper, Alice has served as an illustrative case study to present some enlightenment to show creation should base on child-orientation and give detail opinions to help Chinese children's literary writers rethink the children's literature before and during the creation.展开更多
As an important branch of literature, children's literature is exerting a pivotal role in social education. From the perspec-tive of reception aesthetics, English version of Cao Wenxuan's work Bronze and Sunfl...As an important branch of literature, children's literature is exerting a pivotal role in social education. From the perspec-tive of reception aesthetics, English version of Cao Wenxuan's work Bronze and Sunflower is studied from four aspects:horizon of expectation, indeterminacy, aesthetic distance and fusion of horizons. In reception aesthetics, target readers-children are the center of the reading. So translation methods are to satisfy children's demand. It has also been found out that there are some features for children's literature translation include using colloquial words, concise sentence structure and the combination of domestication and foreignization.展开更多
Invited by Russia St Petersburg Experiment Create Performing Company and approved by Ministry of Culture, a 25-member performing group from Xinjiang Corps Acro- batic General Troupe went to Russia and Byelorussia on J...Invited by Russia St Petersburg Experiment Create Performing Company and approved by Ministry of Culture, a 25-member performing group from Xinjiang Corps Acro- batic General Troupe went to Russia and Byelorussia on June 5,2006.During their 70-day performing tour,they covered 13,000 kilometers and gave 45 shows.The num- ber of the audience reached about 60,000 in total.展开更多
Currently, the comprehensive assessment of the communication troops’ camp planning project is primarily qualitative, with limited quantitative evaluation. Drawing upon the relevant spirit of the Military Commission’...Currently, the comprehensive assessment of the communication troops’ camp planning project is primarily qualitative, with limited quantitative evaluation. Drawing upon the relevant spirit of the Military Commission’s documents and leveraging the author’s own work experience in branch offices, this article thoroughly explores the factors influencing the comprehensive assessment of the project and proposes quantitative representation methods for these factors. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix for the evaluation factors of the communication troops’ camp construction planning project are constructed, enabling the determination of the weightage of each factor. This provides a certain level of support and reference for the project approval and management by branch offices, while also offering valuable insights for the approval and management of camp planning and construction projects in other types of troops and battlefield projects.展开更多
This study explores the key role of rivers in the westward expansion of the United States during the 19th century. In the early 1800s, President Jefferson envisioned a United States that extended from the Atlantic to ...This study explores the key role of rivers in the westward expansion of the United States during the 19th century. In the early 1800s, President Jefferson envisioned a United States that extended from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. At the time, the entire United States territory was located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mississippi River. Much of the land west of the Mississippi River was claimed by Spain, France, or Canada. In 1803, President Jefferson was able to purchase the Missouri River watershed from France via the Louisiana Purchase. This allowed the United States to extend its land claim west from the confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers to the head waters of the Missouri River at the continental divide in the Rocky Mountains. President Jefferson commissioned William Clark and Meriwether Lewis, in 1803, to explore, discover and describe the Missouri River watershed and find a water route to the Pacific Ocean. The Lewis and Clark Corps of Discovery trip found no such waterway link but did continue to explore the Pacific Northwest lands north and west of the continental divide. The only way that the Pacific Northwest could be claimed as part of the United States was for Americans to settle there before the Canadians did. Starting in the 1820s, many Americans traveled via the Oregon Trail to the Willamette Valley (Land of Flowing Milk and Honey) in Oregon. The primary objectives of this study are to document how the United States: 1) extended its land claims west from the Mississippi River to the North American continental drainage divide;2) established an American claim to the Pacific North West territory;and 3) fulfilled President Jefferson’s vision of a United States extending from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No.42375192)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (CMA-CCSP+1 种基金Project No.QBZ202315)support by the Vector Stiftung through the Young Investigator Group"Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting."
文摘Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.
文摘This article aims to explore the feasibility of English animation-assisted children's English teaching based on the theoryof children's language acquisition, discusses its beneficial effects, and puts forward certain reference suggestions based on this.
文摘Alice's Adventures in Wonderland literature development has been blocked by the monotonous theme orientation and plots off the real life. In this paper, Alice has served as an illustrative case study to present some enlightenment to show creation should base on child-orientation and give detail opinions to help Chinese children's literary writers rethink the children's literature before and during the creation.
文摘As an important branch of literature, children's literature is exerting a pivotal role in social education. From the perspec-tive of reception aesthetics, English version of Cao Wenxuan's work Bronze and Sunflower is studied from four aspects:horizon of expectation, indeterminacy, aesthetic distance and fusion of horizons. In reception aesthetics, target readers-children are the center of the reading. So translation methods are to satisfy children's demand. It has also been found out that there are some features for children's literature translation include using colloquial words, concise sentence structure and the combination of domestication and foreignization.
文摘Invited by Russia St Petersburg Experiment Create Performing Company and approved by Ministry of Culture, a 25-member performing group from Xinjiang Corps Acro- batic General Troupe went to Russia and Byelorussia on June 5,2006.During their 70-day performing tour,they covered 13,000 kilometers and gave 45 shows.The num- ber of the audience reached about 60,000 in total.
文摘Currently, the comprehensive assessment of the communication troops’ camp planning project is primarily qualitative, with limited quantitative evaluation. Drawing upon the relevant spirit of the Military Commission’s documents and leveraging the author’s own work experience in branch offices, this article thoroughly explores the factors influencing the comprehensive assessment of the project and proposes quantitative representation methods for these factors. Utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix for the evaluation factors of the communication troops’ camp construction planning project are constructed, enabling the determination of the weightage of each factor. This provides a certain level of support and reference for the project approval and management by branch offices, while also offering valuable insights for the approval and management of camp planning and construction projects in other types of troops and battlefield projects.
文摘This study explores the key role of rivers in the westward expansion of the United States during the 19th century. In the early 1800s, President Jefferson envisioned a United States that extended from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. At the time, the entire United States territory was located between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mississippi River. Much of the land west of the Mississippi River was claimed by Spain, France, or Canada. In 1803, President Jefferson was able to purchase the Missouri River watershed from France via the Louisiana Purchase. This allowed the United States to extend its land claim west from the confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers to the head waters of the Missouri River at the continental divide in the Rocky Mountains. President Jefferson commissioned William Clark and Meriwether Lewis, in 1803, to explore, discover and describe the Missouri River watershed and find a water route to the Pacific Ocean. The Lewis and Clark Corps of Discovery trip found no such waterway link but did continue to explore the Pacific Northwest lands north and west of the continental divide. The only way that the Pacific Northwest could be claimed as part of the United States was for Americans to settle there before the Canadians did. Starting in the 1820s, many Americans traveled via the Oregon Trail to the Willamette Valley (Land of Flowing Milk and Honey) in Oregon. The primary objectives of this study are to document how the United States: 1) extended its land claims west from the Mississippi River to the North American continental drainage divide;2) established an American claim to the Pacific North West territory;and 3) fulfilled President Jefferson’s vision of a United States extending from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.
