We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the rel...We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relations among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the major characteristics of the occurrence intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities due to accidents. The statistical model analysis suggests that the occurrence intervals of accidents and the number of fatalities can be explained by probability distributions such as the exponential distribution and the negative binomial distribution, respectively. We show that countermeasures for preventing accidents have been developed in every aircraft model, and thus they have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of accidents in the last three decades. We find that the major cause of accidents involving large airplanes has been weather, while accidents involving small airplanes and helicopters are mainly due to the pilot error. We also discover that, with respect to accidents mainly due to pilot error, there is a significant decrease in the number of accidents due to the aging of airplanes, whereas the number of accidents due to weather has barely declined. We further determine that accidents involving small and large airplanes mostly occur during takeoff and landing, whereas those involving helicopters are most likely to happen during flight. In order to decrease the number of accidents, i) enhancing safety and security by further developing technologies for aircraft, airports and air control radars, ii) establishing and improving training methods for crew including pilots, mechanics and traffic controllers, iii) tightening public rules, and iv) strengthening efforts made by individual aviation-related companies are absolutely necessary.展开更多
为进一步提高大型游乐设施使用安全性,以大型游乐设施事故为研究对象,提出了融合故障树分析法(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)、层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和逼近理想解决策方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similar...为进一步提高大型游乐设施使用安全性,以大型游乐设施事故为研究对象,提出了融合故障树分析法(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)、层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和逼近理想解决策方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similari-ty to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的事故预防方案决策分析。定性定量地分析了大型游乐设施事故危险因素的影响程度,量化了事故预防措施方案以及决策过程。结果表明,在摩天轮坠落事故中,基本事件X3维修保养不到位和X4检查不到位对事故发生的影响程度最高,二者均属于安全制度因素。急需优先采取的事故预防方案为方案6,包括避免乘客和操作人员不安全行为,应对室外不利环境,完善安全制度和提高应急救援能力等措施。展开更多
文摘We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relations among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the major characteristics of the occurrence intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities due to accidents. The statistical model analysis suggests that the occurrence intervals of accidents and the number of fatalities can be explained by probability distributions such as the exponential distribution and the negative binomial distribution, respectively. We show that countermeasures for preventing accidents have been developed in every aircraft model, and thus they have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of accidents in the last three decades. We find that the major cause of accidents involving large airplanes has been weather, while accidents involving small airplanes and helicopters are mainly due to the pilot error. We also discover that, with respect to accidents mainly due to pilot error, there is a significant decrease in the number of accidents due to the aging of airplanes, whereas the number of accidents due to weather has barely declined. We further determine that accidents involving small and large airplanes mostly occur during takeoff and landing, whereas those involving helicopters are most likely to happen during flight. In order to decrease the number of accidents, i) enhancing safety and security by further developing technologies for aircraft, airports and air control radars, ii) establishing and improving training methods for crew including pilots, mechanics and traffic controllers, iii) tightening public rules, and iv) strengthening efforts made by individual aviation-related companies are absolutely necessary.
文摘为进一步提高大型游乐设施使用安全性,以大型游乐设施事故为研究对象,提出了融合故障树分析法(Fault Tree Analysis,FTA)、层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和逼近理想解决策方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similari-ty to Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)的事故预防方案决策分析。定性定量地分析了大型游乐设施事故危险因素的影响程度,量化了事故预防措施方案以及决策过程。结果表明,在摩天轮坠落事故中,基本事件X3维修保养不到位和X4检查不到位对事故发生的影响程度最高,二者均属于安全制度因素。急需优先采取的事故预防方案为方案6,包括避免乘客和操作人员不安全行为,应对室外不利环境,完善安全制度和提高应急救援能力等措施。
