金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风...金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风险溢出效应,这有助于捕捉冲击在不同金融市场之间传播而产生的间接影响。Wald检验和后验分析表明5个市场间只在危机或泡沫状态时存在明显的风险溢出效应。同时,本文利用压力测试发现单个市场的短期冲击影响会被其他金融市场如股市消化吸收,但4个金融市场都处于正常状态会明显降低其他金融市场如股市的左尾风险。此外,本文提出利用单个金融市场在同一时点的不同分位数计算每个金融市场在同一时点的预期收益、波动风险和崩盘风险,这种做法的好处在于结果更加稳健以及减轻极端值的影响。在此基础上,本文进一步探究金融市场间是否能够对冲彼此的波动风险和崩盘风险。结果显示大宗商品市场和金融期货市场能够有效地对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险,但汇市、债市和股市无法对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险。展开更多
This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(V...This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.展开更多
Chinese Assam tea(Camellia sinensis var.assamica)is an important tea crop with a long history of cultivation in Yunnan,China.Despite its potential value as a genetic resource,its genetic diversity and domestication/br...Chinese Assam tea(Camellia sinensis var.assamica)is an important tea crop with a long history of cultivation in Yunnan,China.Despite its potential value as a genetic resource,its genetic diversity and domestication/breeding history remain unclear.To address this issue,we genotyped 469 ancient tea plant trees representing 26 C.sinensis var.assamica populations,plus two of its wild relatives(six and three populations of C.taliensis and C.crassicolumna,respectively)using 16 nuclear microsatellite loci.Results showed that Chinese Assam tea has a relatively high,but comparatively lower gene diversity(H_(S)=0.638)than the wild relative C.crassicolumna(H_S=0.658).Clustering in STRUCTURE indicated that Chinese Assam tea and its two wild relatives formed distinct genetic groups,with considerable interspecific introgression.The Chinese Assam tea accessions clustered into three gene pools,corresponding well with their geographic distribution.However,New Hybrids analysis indicated that 68.48%of ancient Chinese Assam tea plants from Xishuangbanna were genetic intermediates between the Puer and Lincang gene pools.In addition,10%of the ancient Chinese Assam tea individuals were found to be hybrids between Chinese Assam tea and C.taliensis.Our results suggest that Chinese Assam tea was domesticated separately in three gene pools(Puer,Lincang and Xishuangbanna)in the Mekong River valley and that the hybrids were subsequently selected during the domestication process.Although the domestication history of Chinese Assam tea in southwestern Yunnan remains complex,our results will help to identify valuable genetic resources that may be useful in future tea breeding programs.展开更多
文摘金融稳定需要防范和化解金融市场之间的风险传染。与以往文献只是探究两个市场的风险传染不同,本文利用高维VAR for VaR模型将中国的汇市、债市、大宗商品、金融期货和股市等五个金融市场纳入统一框架,分析这5个金融市场在不同状态的风险溢出效应,这有助于捕捉冲击在不同金融市场之间传播而产生的间接影响。Wald检验和后验分析表明5个市场间只在危机或泡沫状态时存在明显的风险溢出效应。同时,本文利用压力测试发现单个市场的短期冲击影响会被其他金融市场如股市消化吸收,但4个金融市场都处于正常状态会明显降低其他金融市场如股市的左尾风险。此外,本文提出利用单个金融市场在同一时点的不同分位数计算每个金融市场在同一时点的预期收益、波动风险和崩盘风险,这种做法的好处在于结果更加稳健以及减轻极端值的影响。在此基础上,本文进一步探究金融市场间是否能够对冲彼此的波动风险和崩盘风险。结果显示大宗商品市场和金融期货市场能够有效地对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险,但汇市、债市和股市无法对冲其他金融市场的波动风险和崩盘风险。
基金supported by the research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodology,and Environmental Economic Policies(No.42076221).
文摘This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.
基金supported by funds from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31970363,31161140350)the Key Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province,China(202101BC070003)supported by the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services division。
文摘Chinese Assam tea(Camellia sinensis var.assamica)is an important tea crop with a long history of cultivation in Yunnan,China.Despite its potential value as a genetic resource,its genetic diversity and domestication/breeding history remain unclear.To address this issue,we genotyped 469 ancient tea plant trees representing 26 C.sinensis var.assamica populations,plus two of its wild relatives(six and three populations of C.taliensis and C.crassicolumna,respectively)using 16 nuclear microsatellite loci.Results showed that Chinese Assam tea has a relatively high,but comparatively lower gene diversity(H_(S)=0.638)than the wild relative C.crassicolumna(H_S=0.658).Clustering in STRUCTURE indicated that Chinese Assam tea and its two wild relatives formed distinct genetic groups,with considerable interspecific introgression.The Chinese Assam tea accessions clustered into three gene pools,corresponding well with their geographic distribution.However,New Hybrids analysis indicated that 68.48%of ancient Chinese Assam tea plants from Xishuangbanna were genetic intermediates between the Puer and Lincang gene pools.In addition,10%of the ancient Chinese Assam tea individuals were found to be hybrids between Chinese Assam tea and C.taliensis.Our results suggest that Chinese Assam tea was domesticated separately in three gene pools(Puer,Lincang and Xishuangbanna)in the Mekong River valley and that the hybrids were subsequently selected during the domestication process.Although the domestication history of Chinese Assam tea in southwestern Yunnan remains complex,our results will help to identify valuable genetic resources that may be useful in future tea breeding programs.
