During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and ...During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.展开更多
An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes...An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations ...Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development （SVD） theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.展开更多
An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the an...An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.展开更多
Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key...Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.展开更多
Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the trigge...Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the triggering mechanism, and structural features of mesoscale convective systems during these rainfall events. The main results of WSHR studies in recent years are summarized in this paper. However, WSHR caused by micro- to mesoscale systems often occurs abruptly and locally, making both numerical model predictions and objective forecasts difficult. Further research is needed in three areas:(1) The mechanisms controlling WSHR events need to be understood to clarify the specific effects of various factors and indicate the influences of these factors under different synoptic background circulations. This would enable an understanding of the mechanisms of formation, maintenance, and organization of the convections in WSHR events.(2) In addition to South China, WSHR events also occur during the concentrated summer precipitation in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Valley and North China. A high spatial and temporal resolution dataset should be used to analyze the distribution and environmental conditions, and to further compare the differences and similarities of the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of WSHR events in different regions.(3) More studies of the mechanisms are required, as well as improvements to the model initial conditions and physical processes based on multi-source observations, especially the description of the triggering process and the microphysical parameterization. This will improve the numerical prediction of WSHR events.展开更多
The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(S...The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.展开更多
Aiming at the needs of mechanism analysis of rainstorms and development of numerical prediction models in south China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration ...Aiming at the needs of mechanism analysis of rainstorms and development of numerical prediction models in south China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences jointly set up the Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base,China Meteorological Administration. This paper introduces the instruments and field experiments of this base, provides an overview of the recent advances in retrieval algorithms of microphysical parameters, improved understanding of microphysical characteristics, as well as the formation mechanisms and numerical prediction of heavy rainfalls in south China based on the field experiments dataset.展开更多
In recent work,three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation(DSAEF_LTP model)have been introduced,namely,tropical cyclone(TC)track,TC landfall...In recent work,three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation(DSAEF_LTP model)have been introduced,namely,tropical cyclone(TC)track,TC landfall season,and TC intensity.In the present study,we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added.Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018.The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track,TC landfall season,and intensity(DSAEF_LTP-1).The other three experiments were based on the first experiment,but with new ensemble forecast schemes added(DSAEF_LTP-2),new similarity regions added(DSAEF_LTP-3),and both added(DSAEF_LTP-4),respectively.Results showed that,after new similarity regions added into the model(DSAEF_LTP-3),the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall(accumulated precipitation≥250 mm and≥100 mm)improved,and the sum of the threat score(TS250+TS100)increased by 4.44%.Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1,the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously(DSAEF_LTP-4),with the TS increasing by 25.36%.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models,and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall.Finally,some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature（SST） over the South China–East Asian coastal region（EACR） in association with the persistent ...This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature（SST） over the South China–East Asian coastal region（EACR） in association with the persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events over South China during May–August through statistical analysis. Based on the intensity threshold and duration criterion of the daily rainfall, a total of 63 May–June（MJ） and 59July–August（JA） PHR events are selected over South China from 1979 to 2011. The lower-level circulation anomalies on subseasonal timescale exhibit an anomalous cyclone over South China and an anomalous anticyclone shaped like a tongue over the South China Sea（SCS） during the PHR events for MJ group.The anomalous cyclone over South China in MJ originates from low-value systems in the mid-high latitudes before the rainfall. The anomalous anticyclone over the SCS is due to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） and the southeastward propagation of the anomalous anticyclone from South China before the rainfall. For JA group, the lower-level anomalous circulation pattern is similar to that for MJ over the South China–EACR, but with di？erent features of propagation. The subseasonal anomalous anticyclone is also related to the westward stretch of the WPSH, while the anomalous cyclone is traced back to the weak anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea several days before the rainfall events.Positive SST anomaly（SSTA） is observed over the SCS and the Philippine Sea during the MJ PHR events on the subseasonal timescale. It is closely linked with the variation of local anomalous anticyclone. In contrast, negative SSTA occupies the South China coastal region for the JA PHR events, and it is driven by the anomalous cyclone which propagates northwestward from the Philippine Sea. The subseasonal positive（negative） SSTAs are generated via the local processes of above（below）-normal incident solar radiation and below（above）-normal latent heat fluxes. The possible role of the subseasonal SSTA in the local convective instability is also analyzed in this study.展开更多
Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation charact...Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation characteristics, as well as the dry-cold air and moisture sources of each type of PHREs were examined. The main results are as follows. A total of 32 non-typhoon influenced PHREs in South China were identified over the study period. By correlation analysis, the PHREs are divided into three types： SC-A type, with its main rainbelt located in the coastal areas and the northeast of Guangdong Province; SC-B type, with its main rainbelt between Guangdong Province and Guangxi Region; and SC-C type, with its main rainbelt located in the north of Guangxi Region. For the SC-A events, dry-cold air flew to South China under the steering effect of troughs in the middle troposphere which originated from the Ural Mountains and West Siberia Plain; whereas, the SC-C events were not influenced by the cold air from high latitudes. There were three water vapor pathways from low-latitude areas for both the SC-A and SC-C PHREs. The tropical Indian Ocean was the main water vapor source for these two PHRE types, while the South China Sea also contributed to the SC-C PHREs. In addition, the SC-A events were also influenced by moist and cold air originating from the Yellow Sea. Generally, the SC-C PHREs belonged to a warm-sector rainfall type, whose precipitation areas were dominated by southwesterly wind, and the convergence in wind speed was the main reason for precipitation.展开更多
This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of c...This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of convection evolution in a high-impact heavy-rainfall event over coastal areas of South China during the pre-summer rainy season. An ensemble of 40 deterministic forecast experiments(40 DADF) with data assimilation(DA) is conducted, in which the DA starts at the same time but lasts for different time spans(up to 2 h) and with different time intervals of 6, 12, 24, and 30 min. The reference experiment is conducted without DA(NODA).To show more clearly the impact of radar DA on mesoscale convective system(MCS)forecasts, two sets of 60-member ensemble experiments(NODA EF and exp37 EF) are performed using the same 60-member perturbed-ensemble initial fields but with the radar DA being conducted every 6 min in the exp37 EF experiments from 0200 to0400 BST. It is found that the DA experiments generally improve the convection prediction. The 40 DADF experiments can forecast a heavy-rain-producing MCS over land and an MCS over the ocean with high probability, despite slight displacement errors. The exp37 EF improves the probability forecast of inland and offshore MCSs more than does NODA EF. Compared with the experiments using the longer DA time intervals, assimilating the radial-velocity observations at 6-min intervals tends to produce better forecasts. The experiment with the longest DA time span and shortest time interval shows the best performance.However, a shorter DA time interval(e.g., 12 min) or a longer DA time span does not always help. The experiment with the shortest DA time interval and maximum DA window shows the best performance, as it corrects errors in the simulated convection evolution over both the inland and offshore areas. An improved representation of the initial state leads to dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are more conducive to earlier initiation of the inland MCS and longer maintenance of the offshore MCS.展开更多
Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This ...Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This paper fills the gap by analyzing 15 OWSR events that occurred in an anticyclone synoptic situation during the pre-summer rainy season of 2011-2016,based on high-resolution observational and reanalysis data.The results show that the anticyclone synoptic situation produces marked northerly boundary-layer winds inland and obvious northeasterly,easterly/southwesterly,and southeasterly boundary-layer winds near the coasts of eastern Guangdong,western Guangdong,and Guangxi,respectively.The coastal boundary-layer winds promote favorable environmental conditions and strong convergence for convection initiation;consequently,OWSR is prone to occur near the coasts of western Guangdong and Guangxi,but exhibits different formation and propagation features in the following two subareas.(1)The southeasterly boundary-layer winds tend to converge near the border area between Guangxi and Guangdong(BGG),promoting the formation of a stable convective line along the mountains.The convective line persists with support of upper-level southwesterly winds that facilitate convective cells to propagate along the convective line,producing heavy OWSR along the mountains near BGG.(2)In contrast,a west-east convective line tends to form and maintain near the coast of Yangjiang(YJ)area,about 200 km east of BGG,owing to stable convergence between the easterly(or southwesterly)and the northerly boundary-layer winds reinforced by the mountains near YJ.Moreover,the coupling of upper-level westerly winds with the easterly(southwesterly)boundary-layer winds facilitates expansion(eastward propagation)of the convective line,causing west-east-oriented heavy OWSR near the coast of YJ.In a word,this study reveals refined properties of OWSR initiation and development in the anticyclone synoptic situation,which may help improve the forecast skill of OWSR during the pre-summer rainy season in South China.展开更多
Two heavy rainfall events occurred over the Pearl River Delta during 20-22 May 2020:the first was a warm-sector event and the second a frontal event.Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from wind profilers a...Two heavy rainfall events occurred over the Pearl River Delta during 20-22 May 2020:the first was a warm-sector event and the second a frontal event.Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from wind profilers and Doppler weather radars,the structures and roles of low-level jets(LLJs)during these two heavy rainfall events were analyzed.The results show that:(1)South China was affected by a low-level vortex and a low-level shear line during the two processes.The two heavy rainfall events were both associated with a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ)and a boundary layer jet(BLJ).The coupling of the convergence at the exit of the BLJ and the divergence at the entrance of the SLLJ produced strong lifting for the warm-sector heavy rainfall,and the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds as the cold front moved southwards was the main lifting reason for the frontal heavy rainfall.(2)The BLJ was the main transport of water vapor during the two processes.The coupling of the BLJ and SLLJ caused the water vapor convergence to be concentrated in the boundary layer during the first process,whereas the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds led to the lower and middle troposphere having strong water vapor convergence during the second process.(3)During the period of these two heavy rainfall events,the lower and middle troposphere remained unstable.Further analysis show that the differences in the intensity,location,and direction between the BLJ and SLLJ resulted in the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature advection in the boundary layer being significantly larger than in the lower and middle troposphere,which compensated for the energy loss caused by heavy rainfall and maintained the convective instability.These findings add to our knowledge on the roles of LLJs in the pre-summer rainfall over South China.展开更多
Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector he...Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event caused by a convective system with multiple-rain-bands organizational mode over the western coast of south China.In the early stage,under the influence of coastal convergence and topography,convection was triggered in the coastal mountainous areas and moved north-eastwards.Nocturnal cooling induced the north winds in the inland mountainous area.A mesoscale convergence line was formed in the middle of Yangjiang city between the inland north and coastal south winds,which facilitated the developing and merging of convective storms into a linear convective band along the convergence line.This relatively long convective band presented a quasi-stationary state in the south of Mt.Ehuangzhang and Mt.Tianlu,which results in the first precipitation peak.At this stage,the convection developed to a higher level,with relatively larger raindrops,producing larger amounts of rainfall,which was probably related to the active merging of convection.In the later phase,as the environmental winds shifted,convective bands tended to move southeastwards,accompanied with the cold pools.At the same time,the multiple short convective bands were formed,which were almost parallel to the shear line,and a multiple-rain-bands organizational mode occurred.The mesoscale convergence line maintained due to the outflows of cold pools caused by precipitation in the preceding period,and then gradually moved southwards.Under the influence of the mesoscale convergence and topography,convection was continuously triggered at the southern end of the short convective bands.This back-building characteristic favored the development of the convective system.The multiple rain bands passed through the same place in a“rainband-training”form,resulting in the second peak of precipitation.The collision process was active in the low levels during this event.展开更多
基金National key research and development program of China(2022YFC3003902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,42075086,41975138)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971,2021A1515011415,2019A1515010814)。
文摘During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42075014)Science and Technology Key Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2020Z02,GRMCGS202101)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(2021A1515011539)Forecasters Project of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2019-080)。
文摘An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40730951the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2009CB421404
文摘Persistent heavy rainfall events in South China can be divided into pre-and post-monsoon-onset events according to the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. In this study, daily rainfall data from 174 stations in South China and daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to investigate pre-monsoon-onset events. The synoptic characteristics of pre-monsoon-onset heavy rainfall events are examined in detail. It is found that 21 heavy rainfall cases happened in the pre-monsoon period between 1961 and 2005. Among them, more than 60% of the events happened under a saddle pattern circulation. Using a case study, the role of the saddle field is investigated and slantwise vorticity development （SVD） theory is applied to diagnose the mechanisms for heavy rainfall development. It is found that a low-level saddle field and low-level jets result in the accumulation of warm moist air in the lower troposphere over South China and provide the necessary unstable conditions for heavy rainfall development. The existence of a saddle field plays an important role in maintaining these unstable conditions. The slantwise movement of the isentropic surface over South China can increase local vorticity and lead to strong vertical motion, which then triggers heavy rainfall.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405104)Specialized Project for Public Welfare Industries(Meteorological Sector)(GYHY201306004)+2 种基金Guangdong Science and Technology Planning Project(2012A061400012)Project of Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau for Science and Technology(2013A04)Science and Technology Plan for the 12th Five-Year of Social and Economic Development(2012BAC22B00)
文摘An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42075002 and 42030610)
文摘Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675045)National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507200)the Jiangxi Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (Grant No. 20171BBG70005)
文摘Warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) events in China have been investigated for many years. Studies have investigated the synoptic weather conditions during WSHR formation, the categories and general features, the triggering mechanism, and structural features of mesoscale convective systems during these rainfall events. The main results of WSHR studies in recent years are summarized in this paper. However, WSHR caused by micro- to mesoscale systems often occurs abruptly and locally, making both numerical model predictions and objective forecasts difficult. Further research is needed in three areas:(1) The mechanisms controlling WSHR events need to be understood to clarify the specific effects of various factors and indicate the influences of these factors under different synoptic background circulations. This would enable an understanding of the mechanisms of formation, maintenance, and organization of the convections in WSHR events.(2) In addition to South China, WSHR events also occur during the concentrated summer precipitation in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Valley and North China. A high spatial and temporal resolution dataset should be used to analyze the distribution and environmental conditions, and to further compare the differences and similarities of the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of WSHR events in different regions.(3) More studies of the mechanisms are required, as well as improvements to the model initial conditions and physical processes based on multi-source observations, especially the description of the triggering process and the microphysical parameterization. This will improve the numerical prediction of WSHR events.
基金National Key Research and Development Project(2019YFEO110100)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975136)+5 种基金the Intelligent Gridded Forecasting Team of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMCTD202004)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011118)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(202103000030)the Innovation and Development Project of the China Meteorological Administration(CXF2021Z009)the Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GMRC2020M06)the Open Fund of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction(J202006)。
文摘The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22422203,42030610,41975138,41975046,42075086,42275008)the High-level Science and Technology Journals Projects of Guangdong Province(214040990009)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant(2017YFC1501701,2017YFC1501703)Science and Technology Foundation of CAMS(2020KJ021)。
文摘Aiming at the needs of mechanism analysis of rainstorms and development of numerical prediction models in south China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences jointly set up the Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base,China Meteorological Administration. This paper introduces the instruments and field experiments of this base, provides an overview of the recent advances in retrieval algorithms of microphysical parameters, improved understanding of microphysical characteristics, as well as the formation mechanisms and numerical prediction of heavy rainfalls in south China based on the field experiments dataset.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFC1510205)Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(SCSF202202)+1 种基金Shenzhen Science and Technology Project(KCXFZ2020122173610028)Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In recent work,three physical factors of the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation(DSAEF_LTP model)have been introduced,namely,tropical cyclone(TC)track,TC landfall season,and TC intensity.In the present study,we set out to test the forecasting performance of the improved model with new similarity regions and ensemble forecast schemes added.Four experiments associated with the prediction of accumulated precipitation were conducted based on 47 landfalling TCs that occurred over South China during 2004-2018.The first experiment was designed as the DSAEF_LTP model with TC track,TC landfall season,and intensity(DSAEF_LTP-1).The other three experiments were based on the first experiment,but with new ensemble forecast schemes added(DSAEF_LTP-2),new similarity regions added(DSAEF_LTP-3),and both added(DSAEF_LTP-4),respectively.Results showed that,after new similarity regions added into the model(DSAEF_LTP-3),the forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall(accumulated precipitation≥250 mm and≥100 mm)improved,and the sum of the threat score(TS250+TS100)increased by 4.44%.Although the forecasting performance of DSAEF_LTP-2 was the same as that of DSAEF_LTP-1,the forecasting performance was significantly improved and better than that of DSAEF_LTP-3 when the new ensemble schemes and similarity regions were added simultaneously(DSAEF_LTP-4),with the TS increasing by 25.36%.Moreover,the forecasting performance of the four experiments was compared with four operational numerical weather prediction models,and the comparison indicated that the DSAEF_LTP model showed advantages in predicting heavy rainfall.Finally,some issues associated with the experimental results and future improvements of the DSAEF_LTP model were discussed.
基金Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2012CB417203)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201106017)
文摘This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature（SST） over the South China–East Asian coastal region（EACR） in association with the persistent heavy rainfall（PHR） events over South China during May–August through statistical analysis. Based on the intensity threshold and duration criterion of the daily rainfall, a total of 63 May–June（MJ） and 59July–August（JA） PHR events are selected over South China from 1979 to 2011. The lower-level circulation anomalies on subseasonal timescale exhibit an anomalous cyclone over South China and an anomalous anticyclone shaped like a tongue over the South China Sea（SCS） during the PHR events for MJ group.The anomalous cyclone over South China in MJ originates from low-value systems in the mid-high latitudes before the rainfall. The anomalous anticyclone over the SCS is due to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） and the southeastward propagation of the anomalous anticyclone from South China before the rainfall. For JA group, the lower-level anomalous circulation pattern is similar to that for MJ over the South China–EACR, but with di？erent features of propagation. The subseasonal anomalous anticyclone is also related to the westward stretch of the WPSH, while the anomalous cyclone is traced back to the weak anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea several days before the rainfall events.Positive SST anomaly（SSTA） is observed over the SCS and the Philippine Sea during the MJ PHR events on the subseasonal timescale. It is closely linked with the variation of local anomalous anticyclone. In contrast, negative SSTA occupies the South China coastal region for the JA PHR events, and it is driven by the anomalous cyclone which propagates northwestward from the Philippine Sea. The subseasonal positive（negative） SSTAs are generated via the local processes of above（below）-normal incident solar radiation and below（above）-normal latent heat fluxes. The possible role of the subseasonal SSTA in the local convective instability is also analyzed in this study.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2012CB417201)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41375053)
文摘Persistent heavy rainfall events （PHREs） over South China during 1981 2014 were selected and classified by an objective method, based on the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. The circulation characteristics, as well as the dry-cold air and moisture sources of each type of PHREs were examined. The main results are as follows. A total of 32 non-typhoon influenced PHREs in South China were identified over the study period. By correlation analysis, the PHREs are divided into three types： SC-A type, with its main rainbelt located in the coastal areas and the northeast of Guangdong Province; SC-B type, with its main rainbelt between Guangdong Province and Guangxi Region; and SC-C type, with its main rainbelt located in the north of Guangxi Region. For the SC-A events, dry-cold air flew to South China under the steering effect of troughs in the middle troposphere which originated from the Ural Mountains and West Siberia Plain; whereas, the SC-C events were not influenced by the cold air from high latitudes. There were three water vapor pathways from low-latitude areas for both the SC-A and SC-C PHREs. The tropical Indian Ocean was the main water vapor source for these two PHRE types, while the South China Sea also contributed to the SC-C PHREs. In addition, the SC-A events were also influenced by moist and cold air originating from the Yellow Sea. Generally, the SC-C PHREs belonged to a warm-sector rainfall type, whose precipitation areas were dominated by southwesterly wind, and the convergence in wind speed was the main reason for precipitation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41405050,91437104&41461164006)the Public Welfare Scientific Research Projects in Meteorology(Grant No.GYHY201406013)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB441402)
文摘This study examines the effectiveness of an ensemble Kalman filter based on the weather research and forecasting model to assimilate Doppler-radar radial-velocity observations for convection-permitting prediction of convection evolution in a high-impact heavy-rainfall event over coastal areas of South China during the pre-summer rainy season. An ensemble of 40 deterministic forecast experiments(40 DADF) with data assimilation(DA) is conducted, in which the DA starts at the same time but lasts for different time spans(up to 2 h) and with different time intervals of 6, 12, 24, and 30 min. The reference experiment is conducted without DA(NODA).To show more clearly the impact of radar DA on mesoscale convective system(MCS)forecasts, two sets of 60-member ensemble experiments(NODA EF and exp37 EF) are performed using the same 60-member perturbed-ensemble initial fields but with the radar DA being conducted every 6 min in the exp37 EF experiments from 0200 to0400 BST. It is found that the DA experiments generally improve the convection prediction. The 40 DADF experiments can forecast a heavy-rain-producing MCS over land and an MCS over the ocean with high probability, despite slight displacement errors. The exp37 EF improves the probability forecast of inland and offshore MCSs more than does NODA EF. Compared with the experiments using the longer DA time intervals, assimilating the radial-velocity observations at 6-min intervals tends to produce better forecasts. The experiment with the longest DA time span and shortest time interval shows the best performance.However, a shorter DA time interval(e.g., 12 min) or a longer DA time span does not always help. The experiment with the shortest DA time interval and maximum DA window shows the best performance, as it corrects errors in the simulated convection evolution over both the inland and offshore areas. An improved representation of the initial state leads to dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are more conducive to earlier initiation of the inland MCS and longer maintenance of the offshore MCS.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41705026,U1433202,41875056,and 91437215)Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(SCSF201801)Special Key Project of Chongqing Technology Innovation and Application Development(cstc2019jscx-tjsbX0007)。
文摘Organized warm-sector rainfall(OWSR)near the coast of South China tends to occur in certain synoptic situations characterized with either a low-level jet or an anticyclone,with the latter being less investigated.This paper fills the gap by analyzing 15 OWSR events that occurred in an anticyclone synoptic situation during the pre-summer rainy season of 2011-2016,based on high-resolution observational and reanalysis data.The results show that the anticyclone synoptic situation produces marked northerly boundary-layer winds inland and obvious northeasterly,easterly/southwesterly,and southeasterly boundary-layer winds near the coasts of eastern Guangdong,western Guangdong,and Guangxi,respectively.The coastal boundary-layer winds promote favorable environmental conditions and strong convergence for convection initiation;consequently,OWSR is prone to occur near the coasts of western Guangdong and Guangxi,but exhibits different formation and propagation features in the following two subareas.(1)The southeasterly boundary-layer winds tend to converge near the border area between Guangxi and Guangdong(BGG),promoting the formation of a stable convective line along the mountains.The convective line persists with support of upper-level southwesterly winds that facilitate convective cells to propagate along the convective line,producing heavy OWSR along the mountains near BGG.(2)In contrast,a west-east convective line tends to form and maintain near the coast of Yangjiang(YJ)area,about 200 km east of BGG,owing to stable convergence between the easterly(or southwesterly)and the northerly boundary-layer winds reinforced by the mountains near YJ.Moreover,the coupling of upper-level westerly winds with the easterly(southwesterly)boundary-layer winds facilitates expansion(eastward propagation)of the convective line,causing west-east-oriented heavy OWSR near the coast of YJ.In a word,this study reveals refined properties of OWSR initiation and development in the anticyclone synoptic situation,which may help improve the forecast skill of OWSR during the pre-summer rainy season in South China.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2020A1515010602)Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province(2020B1111200001)+1 种基金Guangzhou Municipal Science and Technology Planning Project of China(201903010101)Radar Application and Short-Term Severe-Weather Predictions and Warnings Technology Program(GRMCTD202002)。
文摘Two heavy rainfall events occurred over the Pearl River Delta during 20-22 May 2020:the first was a warm-sector event and the second a frontal event.Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from wind profilers and Doppler weather radars,the structures and roles of low-level jets(LLJs)during these two heavy rainfall events were analyzed.The results show that:(1)South China was affected by a low-level vortex and a low-level shear line during the two processes.The two heavy rainfall events were both associated with a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ)and a boundary layer jet(BLJ).The coupling of the convergence at the exit of the BLJ and the divergence at the entrance of the SLLJ produced strong lifting for the warm-sector heavy rainfall,and the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds as the cold front moved southwards was the main lifting reason for the frontal heavy rainfall.(2)The BLJ was the main transport of water vapor during the two processes.The coupling of the BLJ and SLLJ caused the water vapor convergence to be concentrated in the boundary layer during the first process,whereas the strong convergence between the LLJs and northerly winds led to the lower and middle troposphere having strong water vapor convergence during the second process.(3)During the period of these two heavy rainfall events,the lower and middle troposphere remained unstable.Further analysis show that the differences in the intensity,location,and direction between the BLJ and SLLJ resulted in the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature advection in the boundary layer being significantly larger than in the lower and middle troposphere,which compensated for the energy loss caused by heavy rainfall and maintained the convective instability.These findings add to our knowledge on the roles of LLJs in the pre-summer rainfall over South China.
基金The Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2020LASW-B04)National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2242203,41905047)+3 种基金Guangdong Province Important Area Research and Development Plan(2020B1111200001)Operation-oriented Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2022M31)The Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSQ003)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011971)。
文摘Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and multi-source observations,including polarimetric radar and automatic weather stations,this study analyzes the formation mechanism and microphysical characteristics of a warm-sector heavy rainfall event caused by a convective system with multiple-rain-bands organizational mode over the western coast of south China.In the early stage,under the influence of coastal convergence and topography,convection was triggered in the coastal mountainous areas and moved north-eastwards.Nocturnal cooling induced the north winds in the inland mountainous area.A mesoscale convergence line was formed in the middle of Yangjiang city between the inland north and coastal south winds,which facilitated the developing and merging of convective storms into a linear convective band along the convergence line.This relatively long convective band presented a quasi-stationary state in the south of Mt.Ehuangzhang and Mt.Tianlu,which results in the first precipitation peak.At this stage,the convection developed to a higher level,with relatively larger raindrops,producing larger amounts of rainfall,which was probably related to the active merging of convection.In the later phase,as the environmental winds shifted,convective bands tended to move southeastwards,accompanied with the cold pools.At the same time,the multiple short convective bands were formed,which were almost parallel to the shear line,and a multiple-rain-bands organizational mode occurred.The mesoscale convergence line maintained due to the outflows of cold pools caused by precipitation in the preceding period,and then gradually moved southwards.Under the influence of the mesoscale convergence and topography,convection was continuously triggered at the southern end of the short convective bands.This back-building characteristic favored the development of the convective system.The multiple rain bands passed through the same place in a“rainband-training”form,resulting in the second peak of precipitation.The collision process was active in the low levels during this event.
